While preparations for the 2019 NHL draft are in full swing, it's important to keep one eye on the future. Every player develops differently, and these projections could change over time, but let's look at the early favorites to be the No. 1 overall picks in 2020, 2021 and 2022, along with other talented prospects who might challenge them for those top spots.
2020: Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL)
Born three weeks after the draft cut-off, Lafreniere would surely have been a high pick in this year's NHL draft. Instead, he'll have to settle for being the early odds-on favorite to go first overall in 2020. With 105 points this season, Lafreniere posted one of the most productive U18 campaigns of the past 15 years in the QMJHL and earned MVP honors in doing so. He matched Jonathan Huberdeau's and Jonathan Drouin's totals from their age-17 seasons and trailed only Sidney Crosby's two highly productive seasons at ages 16 and 17.
Given that he put up 80 points in his rookie year in the Q, Lafreniere has continually taken steps forward. He was a top performer for Canada at the World U18 Championship in 2018 as an underager, captained the Canadian team to the championship at last summer's Hlinka-Gretzky Cup and was the only underager added to Canada's World Junior Championship squad. For his final act this season, Lafreniere led Rimouski on a deep playoff run in which he paced the team with 23 points over 13 games.
What makes Lafreniere special? He has tons of skill and can play at a high pace, but he also has a bit of a nasty streak. He competes hard, isn't afraid to throw his weight around and puts pressure on teams with his tenacity.
While he has been compared to Connor McDavid and Jack Hughes, among others, I haven't found a true separating factor in my viewings of Lafreniere. I don't know that Lafreniere has any one elite skill at this point, but rather he is very good in a lot of areas. I think he's at least going to be pushed for No. 1 in 2020, with such a talented class on deck.
Other top names to know:
Lucas Raymond, RW, Frolunda (SHL): Raymond is a highly skilled winger who just had a hero turn at the World U18s, scoring a hat trick to give Sweden its first gold medal at the event. He is likely to play on Frolunda's pro side next season. Exceptional hockey sense and creativity give him a good shot to go No. 1 next June.
Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury Wolves (OHL): A freight train on skates, Byfield has the size and skill to be a high-end power center.
Cole Perfetti, C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL): Perfetti put up huge numbers on a good Saginaw team this season, leading all U17 players in the OHL with 74 points.
Alexander Holtz, LW, Djurgardens (SHL): A dynamic sniper with the ability to create space, Holtz was a big part of that Swedish U18 gold medal team, with seven points in seven games.
Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa 67s (OHL): Expectations continue to skyrocket for the young Austrian. Rossi had 65 points in 53 games and has been a major contributor in the playoffs.
Are you SERIOUS Alexis Lafrenière? He does it all himself to put #TeamCanada🇨🇦 ahead of #Sweden🇸🇪3-2! #HlinkaGretzkyCup pic.twitter.com/PYAEzjzEWz
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) August 12, 2018
2021: Brandt Clarke, D, Don Mills Flyers (GTHL)
It's early yet, but there are some really intriguing talents coming through the 2003 birth year. I'm not spending a ton of time watching players in these ranks, but I have seen some live games, watched some tape and consulted with some junior hockey scouts on what could end up being the most wide-open No. 1 overall race in a while. The 2021 group does not have a ton of consensus at this point, but it is expected to be a strong group out of Ontario.
One of the best players I saw this season was defenseman Brandt Clarke. He is highly skilled and intelligent, and he has dynamic elements that should serve him well. He was selected fourth overall in the OHL draft by the Barrie Colts, where he'll be under the tutelage of Hockey Hall of Famer Dale Hawerchuk.
In talking with scouts who have been watching the 2003 birth year closely, there's some tepid enthusiasm that the best players in this class haven't matured fully yet. But Clarke has caught a lot of attention for the flash in his game and his solid frame. There's still a lot of time to go, but even if Clarke doesn't go No. 1, his name will probably stay high on draft boards.
Other top names to know:
Brennan Othmann, LW, Don Mills Flyers (GTHL): One of the top performers in the GTHL this season, Othmann went second overall to the Flint Firebirds in the OHL draft.
Cameron MacDonald, C/W, Selects Academy (US AAA): Could this be the next great player out of Nova Scotia? MacDonald played against U.S. prep and U18 teams this season with Selects Academy and put up 72 goals and 126 points in 52 games. He is expected to play for the Sioux Falls Stampede in the USHL next season.
Luke Hughes, D, Little Caesars 15U (US AAA): Following in brothers Quinn and Jack's footsteps to the U.S. National Team Development Program next season, Luke is an exceptional skater with solid puck skills and an eye for the net. He also looks to be the tallest of the Hughes boys.
Mason MacTavish, C/W, Pembroke (HEOMAAA): A big forward who plays with some jam, MacTavish is headed to the Peterborough Petes after being picked fifth overall in the OHL draft.
"He loves having the puck on his stick and making plays with the puck. He's got the hockey sense, the skill, vision, and the shot from the point that not a lot of kids have at this age."#OHL Central Scouting Director @DarrellWoodley1 on #OHLDraft prospect Brandt Clarke 🎥 pic.twitter.com/pqbvu1eYUI
— OntarioHockeyLeague (@OHLHockey) April 3, 2019
2022: Shane Wright, C, Don Mills Flyers (GTHL)
With the "exceptional" tag come great expectations, and that's what will follow Wright for the remainder of his junior career. He was granted the same OHL exceptional status that John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad and McDavid received before becoming No. 1 picks in the NHL draft. (That status isn't always a golden ticket, however, as New York Rangers prospect Sean Day can attest.)
Wright is a dominant forward, and with an early 2004 birthdate, he isn't much younger than some of the players who otherwise would have been eligible to enter the OHL next season. Wright was picked first overall by the Kingston Frontenacs and should play a significant role for the rebuilding team in much the same way McDavid helped resurrect the Erie Otters.
The McDavid comparisons might end there, though. While McDavid's vast tool box was highlighted by his electric speed, Wright instead has a good mix of power and skill. His brain operates at a level above his peers, but he is going to have a serious challenger for No. 1 overall.
Get to know top #OHLDraft prospect Shane Wright who was granted Exceptional Player Status and named @GTHLHockey Player of the Year for the #OHLCup champion @03DMF 🎥 pic.twitter.com/WIIzEdLQMy
— OntarioHockeyLeague (@OHLHockey) April 5, 2019
The challenger: Matthew Savoie, C, Northern Alberta X-Treme (CSSHL)
Savoie also applied for exceptional status, albeit in the Western Hockey League. The WHL has never granted exceptional status, and though Savoie was as good a candidate as they've had, he did not get it. With a Jan. 1, 2004, birthday, he was essentially born one day too late to play in the WHL this season. But he was still the No. 1 overall selection by the Winnipeg ICE (the WHL drafts its players a year earlier than the OHL or QMJHL).
Savoie lacks the physical maturity that Wright has, but he has the talent to be special. Savoie was particularly strong at this year's Canada's Games, posting 13 points in six games for Team Alberta and playing against the best and brightest Canada has to offer. With creative puck skills and outstanding edge work, Savoie makes defenders miss and makes those around him better. He processes the game at a high speed and can make plays in all zones.
He made a verbal commitment to the University of Denver, but it is unclear if he'll choose to go the college route or sign in the WHL. Although there is a ton of time for the rest of the class to catch up, these are the two guys currently atop the 2022 NHL draft. Both look like they could be special talents if they continue on this development trajectory.