Whether you love the NHL's playoff format or not, you have to admit the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs was filled with sheer entertainment from start to finish. From shocking upsets to sweeps to seven-game series, it was everything hockey fans love about the postseason. But after so many classics in the opening round, the question now is: Are there any good matchups left?
Aside from rooting for their hometown teams, most hockey fans are simply looking for series to go the full seven games. Are any of the second-round matchups in this boat? We can figure this out by the numbers.
Three statistical areas tell us a great deal about the overall strength of a team: Corsi for percentage, goals and scoring chances. If we look at the differentials of possible opponents, we can find the closest matchups by adding up the percentage difference between each team's even-strength Corsi for percentage, goals for percentage and scoring chance percentage (all stats via Natural Stat Trick).
For example, if Team A has a 52.03 Corsi for percentage and Team B has 51.00, the differential would be 1.03, advantage Team A. The lower the overall number, the closer the matchup. Among first-round series, the difference between Boston and Toronto was 0.08 and between San Jose and Vegas was 0.32; lo and behold, both series went seven. Will we see anything that close this time around?
Eastern Conference
Boston Bruins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Playoff matchup index: 6.56 (advantage Boston)
Key matchup: Boston's top line against Columbus' top defensive pair
2018-19 series: 2-1, Boston
Matchups may be closer than they appear when one of the teams traded for Matt Duchene at the deadline.
On paper from a season-long perspective, the Blue Jackets look like a mediocre team, ranking 12th in Corsi for percentage, 11th in goals for percentage and 12th in scoring chance percentage. But the addition of Duchene has completely changed the face of the Jackets' lineup. With the former Av and Senator on the ice in the first round, the Jackets had a 54.2 Corsi for percentage and outscored Tampa Bay 4-1. Duchene also led the team in scoring, with seven points.
His presence not only allows head coach John Tortorella to pick and choose his matchups against Boston superstars Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, it gives Columbus an edge in speed on its breakouts, led by highly skilled defensemen Seth Jones and Zach Werenski.
But make no mistake, Bergeron isn't going to be intimidated. He faced John Tavares more than any other Toronto forward in the first round and came away with an impressive 52.5 Corsi percentage and 3-1 scoring advantage when both were on the ice at even strength.
Boston has the best two players on the ice, but both goalies have question marks. The Bruins' Tuukka Rask managed just a .912 save percentage in the regular season, and even with a strong Round 1 Sergei Bobrovsky has a sorry .897 career playoff save percentage. If Boston's goalie blinks, this could be a close series. If Bob struggles, it will be over quickly.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
Playoff matchup index: 7.66 (advantage Carolina)
Key matchup: Carolina's puck possession dominance vs. New York's goaltending
2018-19 series: 3-1, Islanders
In the Hurricanes' seven-game victory over the Washington Capitals in the first round, they introduced their deep group of forwards and clutch goaltender to the world. While they do not have a 40-goal sniper, Carolina had 13 players with double-digit goals during the regular season and ranked No. 2 in the NHL in Corsi for percentage behind only the Sharks. Against the Caps, third-liner Warren Foegele led the team in goals with four. You wouldn't have expected the Canes to come out on top when regular- season leading scorer Sebastian Aho was held to two goals, but that speaks to the makeup of Carolina's lineup and its possession style, which starts with puck-moving defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Justin Faulk.
In this matchup, Carolina's strength is the Islanders' weakness. Barry Trotz's team finished 26th in Corsi for percentage. However, the teams were nearly equal in regular-season goals scored at even strength, with the Isles scoring 162 and the Canes 160.
Even if the Islanders find ways to create transition chances against Carolina with dynamic offensive players Jordan Eberle and Mathew Barzal, those opportunities will have to come off big saves from goalie Robin Lehner, who is finally maximizing the talent that Ottawa and Buffalo believed was there. In Round 1, Lehner was the top goaltender in save percentage, stopping 153 of 161 shots. During the regular season, he put together a magnificent .930 save percentage.
This series might appear by our metrics to lean heavily in Carolina's favor, but if Lehner stays on track, we should have a wild one on our hands.
Western Conference
St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars
Playoff matchup index: 7.31 (advantage St. Louis)
Key matchup: St. Louis' team defense vs. the Tyler Seguin-Jamie Benn-Alexander Radulov line
2018-19 series: 3-1, Dallas
Similar to the Blue Jackets, the Stars acquired a scorer at the deadline who has changed the look of their lineup. Former Ranger Mats Zuccarello produced three goals and was on the ice for a 5-3 advantage against the Predators at even strength in Round 1. His presence gives Dallas an extra dimension beyond its top line and closes the gap with the Blues.
The gap between the two clubs in even-strength scoring during the regular season was significant. St. Louis's deep lineup produced 166 5-on-5 goals to Dallas's 136 -- most of which came from the top line of Seguin-Benn-Radulov. Seguin specifically was on the ice for 60 even-strength goals for the Stars, nearly half of their total output.
Selke Trophy nominee Ryan O'Reilly & Co. will be put to the test against this unit. During the regular season, the Blues allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts by opponents and the second-fewest high-danger shot attempts. The latter statistic speaks to the Blues' ability to protect the net with massive top defenders Alex Pietrangelo (6-foot-3), Colton Parayko (6-foot-6) and Jay Bouwmeester (6-foot-4).
Aside from the Stars' top line putting together a strong series, the other way Dallas can close the gap is with great goaltending. Ben Bishop has solidified himself as one of the best playoff goalies in the NHL, with a career .930 save percentage in 42 postseason starts.
San Jose Sharks vs. Colorado Avalanche
Playoff matchup index: 8.56 (advantage San Jose)
Key matchup: Erik Karlsson vs. Nathan MacKinnon
2018-19 series: 3-0, San Jose
This one appears to be San Jose all the way on paper, but Calgary vs. Colorado also looked like a blowout in the Flames' favor. Like the Stars, the Avalanche have a marvelous top line that can single-handedly take over games. With the addition of outstanding goaltending from Philipp Grubauer (.939 save percentage vs. Calgary), the Avalanche suddenly feel dangerous.
With four 30-goal scorers, the Sharks have the advantage in terms of depth, but they also match up shaky goaltender Martin Jones (.904 save percentage in Round 1) against the laser beam shot of MacKinnon and his cohorts Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. In the opening round, MacKinnon was on the ice for a 60-45 advantage in shots on goal and a 59-42 gap in scoring chances.
Considering MacKinnon's outrageous speed, the Sharks will likely counter by using Erik Karlsson against him. While the first round was not kind to Karlsson at 5-on-5 (the Sharks were outscored 11-6 with him on the ice), he has the ability to take over a series, and he was arguably the best player for either team in Game 7 against Vegas. Two years ago, Karlsson was on the ice for a 23-11 even-strength goal advantage during Ottawa's run to the conference finals. If he's up to full speed, the ice time shared between he and Colorado's young superstar will be must-watch TV even if the series doesn't end up being close.