As NHL action resumes following the Christmas break, we sit about halfway through the 2018-19 season. That means we have a big enough sample of games to see things take shape, but still have plenty of hockey to go before the playoffs.
We also have enough hindsight to see how last offseason's moves have impacted this year's results, for better or worse. And we can wonder how things could have been different if they had gone another direction.
Let's have a look at 10 offseason moves or non-moves that have had a domino effect on this season.
What if the Hurricanes kept Jeff Skinner?
With the Canes appearing ready to compete, it came as somewhat of a surprise when they sent their top goal scorer to an Eastern Conference foe for picks. In Buffalo, Skinner has found the back of the net 26 times, most of which have come on assists from budding superstar center Jack Eichel.
Had Carolina kept Skinner, they might be vying for a playoff spot. The Hurricanes, who have not made the postseason since 2008-09, have out-shot opponents by the widest margin in the NHL and taken more than 100 more high-danger shots than opponents, but simply have not produced goals. While winger Sebastian Aho is becoming a star, he has little in the way of support, as Carolina has the fewest goals scored in the Eastern Conference. Ranking 11th in even-strength goals against, they would likely have been in the hunt with another scoring source.
As for Buffalo, they would still be a solid team without Skinner; but they would not be in third place in the East. Eichel has racked up 34 assists in large part because he finally has a dominant finisher by his side. The Sabres have outscored opponents 34-16 at even strength with their two top-liners on the ice.
It's possible the Canes did the right thing long-term if they couldn't sign Skinner. It now seems plausible that he will stick with Buffalo and play next to Eichel for the next eight years.
What if John Tavares stayed with the Islanders?
Things have gone exactly how the Toronto Maple Leafs hoped when they signed Tavares. They rank second in the NHL in even-strength goals, and the All-Star center has lit up the scoreboard playing alongside Mitch Marner, scoring 24 goals in his first 37 games as a Leaf.
His former team, on the other hand, is 20th in even-strength goals, down from eighth last season. But with Barry Trotz behind the bench, the Isles have become a far better defensive team. They are currently tied with Boston, Nashville and Anaheim for the fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed.
New York always seemed to struggle to find the right combination of coaching, secondary scoring, competent defense and goaltending during Tavares' time in blue and orange. Now with Trotz and rising star Mathew Barzal, they are a more complete team. If Tavares were still posting point-per-game type numbers and playing 20-plus minutes per game, it isn't a reach to say they would be in the race for one of the three playoff slots in the Metro. The Isles are only two regulation wins short of the third-place Penguins. But there still would have been a ceiling on the Islanders.
As for the Leafs, they will likely enter the playoffs as co-favorites in the East to reach the Stanley Cup Final. That's what Tavares was looking for when he signed, not third place in the Metro.
What if the Golden Knights or Bruins signed Ilya Kovalchuk?
Kovalchuk must not have watched the NHL for a few years before signing with a fading Los Angeles Kings team. The six-time 40-goal scorer returned from Russia only to see his new squad sink to the bottom of the standings. He hasn't played poorly by any means, but hasn't raised the Kings' level of play, producing 17 points in 27 games and playing 16:43 per game.
Two teams that were routinely mentioned as favorites for his services were the Bruins and Golden Knights, who are both in contention but sit behind the top teams in their respective conferences.
Vegas lost winger James Neal to free agency and last season's top scorer William Karlsson has regressed from his 43-goal 2017-18 season. Max Pacioretty was expected to pick up some of the slack, but has only 19 points in 30 games. Paul Stastny has played only nine games. The Golden Knights have also seen serious goaltending regression with Marc-Andre Fleury dropping to a .901 save percentage. Still, the Golden Knights remain in third in the Pacific. Another scorer would have given them a better chance to win another division title, assuming Kovalchuk would have been more productive on a better team.
Boston has seen a number of key players miss time, including Patrice Bergeron, Jake DeBrusk, Torey Krug and Charlie McAvoy. Another winger to add depth to their attack might have helped make up for some key absences and given them a better shot at challenging Tampa Bay and Toronto in the Atlantic.
But since both teams are still in the playoff race, neither is kicking themselves for letting Kovalchuk get away. Where they might miss him is in the playoffs. Neither team has terrific depth scoring, and the last time Kovy was in the playoffs, he scored 19 points in 23 games en route to a Cup Final appearance with New Jersey.
What if the Maple Leafs traded William Nylander?
Months of drama surrounding Toronto's scoring winger ended with Nylander staying long-term with the Maple Leafs. If Toronto hadn't decided to play the long game, they could have moved the 22-year-old, who scored 61 points in both 2016-17 and 2017-18. Nylander has gotten off to a slow start in his return, but will get plenty of opportunity to help the Leafs. He's been playing largely with Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau, boosting Toronto's already-strong depth.
The biggest impact of a Nylander trade likely would have been in the Western Conference. There is a log jam of good-not-great teams like Colorado, Minnesota, Dallas, Calgary, San Jose, Vegas and Anaheim who are in contention but have been searching for one extra talented player to put them over the top. San Jose is the only one of the aforementioned teams in the top 10 in even-strength scoring. A trade might have shaken up the power balance, giving the favorites, Nashville and Winnipeg, a little extra competition.
It's hard to judge from past trades what the Leafs might have netted in return. A player holding out for a long-term deal does not often net great return on the market. Either way, Toronto would likely have been a less dangerous team this season without him.
What if someone submitted an offer sheet to Nikita Kucherov?
Tampa Bay got the steal of all steals when they signed Kucherov to a reasonable eight-year, $76 million contract with a $9.5 million cap hit, which kicks in next season. The Lightning also signed Ryan McDonagh to an extension carrying a $6.7 million cap hit. They now have nine players scheduled to make more than $5 million in 2019-20.
Offer sheets are a rarity these days, but if another team gave Kucherov the deal he's worth in the form of an offer sheet, the Lightning might have either had to let him walk or had a very difficult cap situation going forward. Kucherov has become one of the best players in the league, with an outrageous 61 points in 38 games this season. He's dominated on the power play, leading the Lightning to the No. 1 rank with the man advantage (29.8 percent). Losing him would have been crushing.
On the other side, only a few teams could have afforded a price the Lightning couldn't match given their cap situations this past summer. But imagine if New Jersey gave him $13 million per year and played Kucherov alongside Taylor Hall, or if Colorado had the dynamic winger on their second line, or Vegas added him instead of signing Stastny and trading for Pacioretty. One move could have changed the power structure of the entire league.
What if Calgary hadn't traded Dougie Hamilton?
The Flames are finally putting it together in a sub-par Pacific. Former Hurricane Elias Lindholm has found his scoring touch with his new team, producing 39 points in 37 games, while Hamilton has struggled to produce -- as most players do -- with the Canes. If Hamilton hadn't been moved, Calgary might have a better possession team, but their offensive attack would still be missing that extra piece to be competitive. It appears the Flames' gamble is paying off, while the Hurricanes continue their seemingly never-ending quest for offensive help.
What if the Penguins traded Phil Kessel?
Every time we think the Penguins' run as a Cup contender is over, they get back in the race. For the second straight season, they have shrugged off a slow start and Kessel has been a big part of the resurgence. Kessel has 37 points in 36 games. Whatever the issues might have been that led to his potentially being dealt, the Pens should be happy they did not move on from him.
What if the Blues had gone into rebuild mode?
Ryan O'Reilly just doesn't have good timing. His two previous teams (Colorado, Buffalo) have come into their own since trading him ... and now the Blues are struggling. O'Reilly has played well with 32 points in 34 games, but hasn't been enough to help a team that is well short on the depth required to succeed in today's NHL.
Instead of acquiring veterans, it might have made sense for St. Louis to take a step backward for one year rather than locking themselves into O'Reilly's long-term deal and a big contract for David Perron. GM Doug Armstrong may be quite active at the trade deadline this season.
What if the Capitals hadn't re-signed John Carlson?
Washington wins with its top talents rather than depth, so it was imperative that they brought back Carlson. He's continued to help Alex Ovechkin dominate on the power play, producing 15 man-advantage assists this season. If the end of Carlson's contract doesn't end up looking good, that's worth the risk, because they are back among the top Cup contenders again. Losing him might have been enough to put them a step or two behind the East's best.
What if the Flyers had signed Jaroslav Halak?
Bad goaltending gets coaches and GMs fired, and that's exactly what's happened in Philly. The Flyers have played six different goalies this season, and have an .885 team save percentage. Meanwhile, Halak has a .930 save percentage with Boston in 21 games, guiding them through Tuukka Rask's absence and struggles earlier this season. Boston does have a history of making goalies better, and Philly has a history of making them worse, but it's possible the Flyers would be in the playoff mix with a halfway decent performance in net, and wouldn't have needed an overhaul at GM and coach, or to rush prospect Carter Hart into the starting gig.