As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction on what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
The Senators were 6-3-5 when they made the bold decision to trade for Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene, shipping center Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators and assets to the Avs to make the three-way deal happen.
What happened next was a microcosm of the Senators' season, in which great expectations became calamitous realities: Duchene didn't put up a point until his eighth game with the Senators and ended up with just two goals and three assists in his first 24 games with Ottawa. The Senators won five games in that stretch, falling to 11 points out of the wild card. They were cooked by the beginning of January, after being a conference finalist last season.
This isn't to put it all on Duchene, who eventually recovered to have a decent offensive season and developed great chemistry with winger Mike Hoffman. Their goaltending fell apart, as Craig Anderson's save percentage dropped by 24 points to a .902. (Goalie of the future Filip Gustavsson can't get there fast enough.) Injuries hit everyone from Erik Karlsson to Mark Stone to Bobby Ryan. By the deadline, the Senators were unabashed sellers, with the drama surrounding Karlsson -- who enters the last year of his contract in 2018-19 -- drowning out everything else around the team.
Well, almost everything else: There were also these billboards placed around the city declaring that their owner has to go.
Keys to the offseason
1. The Erik Karlsson Conundrum.
First, let's be clear that there are other things happening in Karlsson's life that dwarf any concerns about hockey, and we offer our deepest condolences to Erik and Melinda Karlsson on the loss of their son.
As for his future in Ottawa, it's clear that Karlsson was on the trading block at the deadline and nearly moved to the Vegas Golden Knights before the trade fell through. There are so many factors at play here. Karlsson has expressed a desire to remain in Ottawa, but also a desire to maximize his earning potential on his next contract. The Senators have said they want to re-sign him, but they also know he's a franchise-reloading asset in the trade market (and a means to unload Bobby Ryan's contract in the process, too). Would Eugene Melnyk meet his price? Does he want to? Does Karlsson have faith in the franchise under GM Pierre Dorion? Is there a chance that, after all of this, Karlsson's still a Senator next season, and eight more beyond it?
2. Somehow mend the relationship with fans.
It was the breaking point for Ottawa fans when Melnyk used the NHL centennial celebration outdoor game as an opportunity to criticize his own market and threaten relocation. That led to everything from angry letters to the editor to #MelnykOut billboards in Ottawa.
It's clear that Melnyk is repugnant to a great number of Ottawa fans, and that affects everything from ticket sales to merch sales; is there any way to bridge that chasm without him selling the team?
3. Find the right path.
At this point, Dorion should be seeking treatment for whiplash. In three seasons, the Senators went from missing the playoffs to a Game 7 in the conference finals to their worst season from a points-percentage perspective since 1995-96. They went from trading for a No. 1 center in November to dumping their No. 2 center at the deadline to help with a rebuild. They went from signing Anderson to a new contract before this season to ... well, no, that contract was dumb the minute the Senators offered it. (And with trade protection, no less.)
So what they need now in this offseason is a way to stabilize the team and a path forward. They have some pieces -- Duchene, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Cody Ceci, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and some younger talent on the way. How thorough is the rebuild? What's the timeline?
These are the questions Dorion has to answer, because Erik Karlsson will be the one asking. And the answers are what could determine his decision.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
First, that there will be resolution on the Erik Karlsson front; either he's traded to ignite a deeper rebuild or he commits to Ottawa for the next several seasons as a cornerstone of what they're building. To have him back in the final season of his deal without that finality could be toxic -- ask Duchene about playing for a team with uncertainty following you like a stink cloud.
Realistically, the best hope for the Senators next season is a sniff of the playoff bubble, which could happen with better health and much better goaltending. But it'll be a season of transition no matter how the Karlsson situation is resolved -- younger players getting tested, the further purge of veterans like Bobby Ryan and much different expectations than what that conference finals run from last spring would have led some to believe.