As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2017-18, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction of what 2018-19 will hold.
What went wrong
Defense.
Goaltending.
OK, there were a few more factors than that, but when analyzing the 2017-18 New York Islanders, it's hard not to boil it down to a simplistic formula. This was a team with dynamite offensive power -- the emergence of rookie Mathew Barzal, terrific seasons from Josh Bailey and Anders Lee, and of course, there's John Tavares -- but embarrassing deficiencies on its own end.
It was a career-worst season for 32-year-old journeyman Thomas Greiss (.891 save percentage, 3.84 goals-against average). Jaroslav Halak (.906 save percentage, 3.24 GAA) wasn't much better. The platooning duo received a brunt of the criticism from Islanders fans. Of course, they didn't get much help. One of the Islanders' most reliable defensemen, Calvin de Haan, had season-ending shoulder surgery in December, which triggered the unit's demise.
The penalty kill was putrid, sitting at 74.3 percent, the worst mark in the league, as of March 26. New York allowed opponents to record 45 or more shots on 11 occasions this season. The Islanders also led the league in shots allowed: 35.6 per game. It's hard to remedy that, even when New York proved to be an offensive revelation, scoring 3.19 goals per game -- the seventh-best mark in the league.
The Islanders were in the thick of the playoff race until the All-Star break, when the cracks in their foundation were exposed. They never strung together more than two consecutive wins after that, and an eight-game winless stretch in late February through March ultimately foiled this team.
Keys to the offseason
1. Retain John Tavares.
He will be the prized free agent of the summer, and quite frankly, it would be a disaster for the Islanders if their franchise centerpiece walked away. The final season of the captain's six-year, $33 million deal was unceremonious, at best.
The team offered him some long-term security assurances in striking a deal for a new arena and eventual return to Long Island. However, general manager Garth Snow did himself no favors in the short term by failing to address defense and goaltending this season -- even quick fixes at the trade deadline -- which prevented the Islanders from being contenders. Tavares has hinted that he would like to stay with the Islanders, but he's a calculating man who will surely examine all options. The Islanders might need to deploy the neutral-zone trap.
2. Sign a No. 1 goaltender.
The good news is that New York boasts a talented pipeline of goaltending prospects, including 22-year-old Ilya Sorokin (currently in the KHL) and 21-year-old Linus Soderstrom (SHL). The only problem: Neither player's NHL debut seems imminent, especially the more-talented Sorokin, who has no timetable for coming to North America.
That means the Islanders will likely tend to their short-term goaltending needs through free agency, which is always a risky venture. St. Louis' Carter Hutton, the 32-year-old who currently leads the NHL in goals-against average and save percentage, could be a quick fix on a one- or two-year deal.
3. Address the defense.
This is the Islanders' other Achilles' heel. The crumbling defense needs to be addressed. The unit doesn't have rosy prospects for 2018-19, and it could need a complete overhaul as de Haan, Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg are all due to be unrestricted free agents.
The best defenseman available in free agency this summer will be John Carlson, but if Snow is unwilling (or unable) to spend, he'll have to settle on serviceable veterans such Ian Cole, Dan Hamhuis or Jack Johnson. And really, for what this team produced in 2017-18, that's not settling at all.
Realistic expectation for 2018-19
There are two alternate realities the Islanders can live in next season: life with John Tavares or life without him.
If the captain re-signs in New York -- we should note that the Islanders do remain the odds-on favorite to retain his services -- then the outlook doesn't look so bad. With Bailey re-signed already, Lee coming into his own and Barzal proving he's the real deal in a dazzling rookie campaign, this team is a goaltender and a few defensemen away from contending. Really.
Of course, securing a No. 1 goalie and serviceable blueliners through free agency is never a sure thing proposition -- especially if a good chunk of the remaining cap space will be allocated to Tavares. The Metropolitan Division figures to be just as competitive next season, but even still, we think there's a lot to build on from what we saw this past season.
Now, if Tavares leaves in free agency, we're looking at some dark days ahead.