The Oilers are better than you think

At first, it's easy to give the Oilers' superstar captain, Connor McDavid, all the credit for the team's complete turnaround. However, the Oilers beat the San Jose Sharks when McDavid was kept to four points in six games. With two points in three games in Round 2, he is scoring at the same pace against the Ducks. Although he might still be the team's MVP -- and perhaps MVP of the entire league -- McDavid hasn't exactly been carrying the team on his back and winning these games on his own.

Edmonton's success has been a complete team effort. The organization has been making the right decisions for at least the past two years, and McDavid's arrival serves as more of a boosting effect on the successful rebuild that would still be taking place without him -- though obviously not this quickly.

Let's take a closer look at the five reasons behind the Oilers' turnaround and forecast how far they'll get in the playoffs.

1. Connor McDavid

McDavid is one of those generational talents who hasn't come along since Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin made their debuts more than a decade ago or Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux the generation before. These are players who have the ability to almost immediately reverse a team's fortunes and to make near-instant contenders out of anybody.

Even in his rookie season, McDavid's gift was obvious. His even-strength scoring rate of 2.69 points per 60 minutes in 2015-16 was second in the NHL to that of Jaromir Jagr of the Florida Panthers (2.70), who was once a generational scoring talent in his own right.

Just like Crosby and Lemieux, McDavid has achieved his scoring success without big-name scoring support. This season, he played primarily with Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon, neither of whom were previously pegged as top-six wingers. Draisaitl leads the team with eight points in the playoffs and ranked second to McDavid with 77 in the regular season, while Maroon blew away his old career high of 12 goals with 27 this season.

McDavid's 100 points were more than twice the scoring of any teammate except Draisaitl (77) and Jordan Eberle (51), and 100 points mean he scored or assisted on a league-leading 41.2 percent of his team's 243 goals. That's despite the fact that he's essentially the exclusive focus of all the top opposing players, including Marc-Edouard Vlasic in Round 1 against the Sharks and Selke Trophy finalist Ryan Kesler so far in Round 2.

2. Todd McLellan

It isn't easy for rebuilding teams to attract great coaches. Just as Craig Custance has discovered that places such as Edmonton were among the destinations for which players were most likely to use their no-trade clauses -- though that changes once a player such as McDavid arrives -- good coaches might opt to serve as assistants in Chicago or Pittsburgh rather than take their chances as the bench boss of a less competitive team in Canada's icy north.

That's one of the reasons the Oilers cycled through a number of coaches during their long playoff drought, including several without established NHL credentials. Longtime coach Craig MacTavish was followed by the legendary Pat Quinn in 2009-10, then Tom Renney in 2010-11, Ralph Krueger in 2012-13, Dallas Eakins in 2013-14 and Todd Nelson late in 2014-15. None of those has since served as an NHL head coach.

In 2015, McDavid's arrival might have helped finally attract a coach with well-established NHL credentials. In the 1990s, McLellan had great success in six seasons as the head coach of the WHL's Swift Current Broncos, four seasons with the AHL's Houston Aeroes, three seasons as an assistant for the mighty Detroit Red Wings and seven seasons as the head coach of the Sharks.

We have metrics that measure the past experience and success of NHL coaches, both in the NHL and in other leagues, and they all pointed to McLellan as a solid option. At the time of his hire, he was estimated to have added 17.2 points to the standings during his seven seasons with the Sharks, which ranked 17th among active NHL coaches. No, he didn't rank at the top of the league, but even a slightly above-average coach was a big upgrade. In this case, the result is a surprise appearance among this year's three finalists for the Jack Adams.

3. Cam Talbot

Even when McDavid is slowed by top defensive specialists, Talbot's exceptional play in goal has helped the Oilers advance. Whether it's his shutouts in Games 2 and 3 against San Jose or his one-goal-against performance in the deciding Game 6 or his game-stealing performance in Game 2 against Anaheim (he stopped 39 of 40 shots to secure a narrow 2-1 victory in a game in which the Oilers were badly outplayed), Talbot's effectiveness has been on full display this postseason.

When the Oilers traded a collection of three picks to the New York Rangers for Talbot at the 2015 draft, they finally got a steady hand in goal and ended a revolving door of aging goalies that included Dwayne Roloson, Nikolai Khabibulin and Mathieu Garon and borderline NHLers such as Ben Scrivens, Jeff Deslauriers, Jussi Markkanen, Anders Nilsson and Viktor Fasth.

In the regular season, Talbot's .919 save percentage was the best performance by an Oilers goalie since the lockout, with the exception of Devan Dubnyk's .920 in the abridged 2012-13 season. Many fans believe that his steady hand this season qualified him for inclusion in this year's three finalists for the Vezina Trophy, and the underlying numbers don't contradict that sentiment.

4. Blue line

When the Oilers came within a goal of winning the Stanley Cup in 2006, they had a solid blue line headed by Hall of Famer Chris Pronger. After a decade of struggles on defense, it's fair to say they have finally reconstructed a blue line that equals or exceeds that lineup.

It has been a frustrating journey for the team and its fans. Given Pronger's sudden departure and the advancing age of the rest of the top four of Jaroslav Spacek, Jason Smith and Steve Staios, the Oilers' decline from that high-water mark was almost immediate. Over the ensuing decade, it's fair to say the Oilers have had enormous difficulty finding, developing, signing and trading for quality top-four defensemen. Even when they had an effective defender such as Jeff Petry or Justin Schultz, the Oilers struggled to get him into the right role.

Since McDavid's arrival, the Oilers spared no expense in rebuilding their blue line using all available options. On July 1, 2015, free agent Andrej Sekera was signed to a lucrative six-year, $33.0 million contract, and on June 29, 2016, superstar Taylor Hall was traded to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson. Those two join Oscar Klefbom, who was drafted in 2011, and Kris Russell, who signed a one-year deal just before the season began, on the team's best top four since Pronger donned the copper and blue.

5. Forward depth

McDavid, Draisaitl and Klefbom aren't the only young players who have helped the team turn around. Just like Pittsburgh's depth of fast rookies and well-chosen veterans helped the team win the Stanley Cup in 2016, Edmonton's secondary forwards have been a big factor in the team's sudden competitiveness.

Of all the team's shortcomings the past decade, the hardest to explain was the consistent lack of forward depth. Although franchise players, established coaches, starting goalies and top-four defensemen don't exactly grow on trees, there is usually an abundance of quality role players from which to choose.

Whatever the cause of the issues, the Oilers have finally found ways to address it. Value-priced free agent Mark Letestu is tied for third in playoff scoring for the team with five points in nine games, hard-hitting Zack Kassian leads the team with two game-winning goals so far in the playoffs and rookie Anton Slepyshev has made his presence felt with two goals of his own.

Beyond those three, rookie Drake Caggiula has been effective on the checking line, and the team has 2016 No. 4 overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi on the way, after he spent most of 2016-17 in the AHL. Not only do the Oilers have enough to compete with teams such as the Sharks and Ducks today, but they also have the tools to become even better in the years to come.

Forecast

McDavid is obviously the main reason the Oilers have gotten this far this quickly, but he isn't the only reason. Even if some other team's name had shown up on the golden card at that fateful 2015 draft lottery, Edmonton was already making all the right decisions to turn things around.

Without McDavid, the Oilers would have been contenders for a wild card this season and legitimate contenders in the next, with an established coaching staff, a solid No. 1 goalie, their best blue line in more than a decade and the team's younger and faster forward depth.

Despite their sweeping the Calgary Flames in the first round, the Ducks revealed that they are vulnerable by being bested in virtually every statistical category -- except the one that counts, of course. In the second round, the Oilers have been building on their own strengths and capitalizing on the Ducks' weaknesses to build a 2-1 series lead.

There's no doubt that McDavid and the Oilers will be making many appearances in the Conference finals and advancing to several showdowns for the Stanley Cup in the years to come. The only question is whether they can do so this year. In my view, they can.