Only a few months ago, the New York Islanders were celebrating their first playoff-round win since the early 1990s. Now their opening-round series victory over the Florida Panthers seems like a long time ago, as the Islanders sit in last place in the Metropolitan Division.
Barring an incredible turnaround in the league's best division, this season will go down as a huge step backward for a team that appeared to be on the cusp of year-in, year-out competitiveness.
The Islanders' collapse raises two questions: How did the Isles fall so far? Where do they go from here?
Moves that got them into this mess
Letting Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk
After 36 games, superstar center John Tavares, who scored the ninth-most points in the NHL between 2012-13 and 2015-16, is 49th in the league in scoring with 27 points. At even strength, Tavares is seventh on his own team in points per 60 minutes. One explanation for his struggles is the loss of winger Okposo, who signed with the Buffalo Sabres after the Islanders elected to not engage in contract talks. No forward spent more time on ice with Tavares than Okposo between 2012-13 and 2015-16, and, when the Isles' captain was on the ice with Okposo last season, he had a goals-for percentage of 60 percent.
This year, Tavares has played more than 70 minutes with four combinations of wingers and has played the most with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey. While both are considered quality players, neither is in the ballpark of Okposo. In the past three seasons, the new Sabre scored at a star level with 184 points in 210 games. Bailey and Lee have career highs of 41 points. Considering Okposo signed for $6 million per season, it is surprising the Islanders wouldn't play ball to keep Tavares' best teammate around.
Nielsen has been one of the most underappreciated players in the NHL over his nine-year career. Last season, he faced the most difficult competition on the Islanders in terms of opponents' average goals for per 60 minutes and ranked second on the team in Corsi percentage at 51.2 and managed a solid 52.2 goals-for percentage. So the Islanders were controlling the puck and outscoring tough opponents with Nielsen on the ice.
Not to mention that the Danish forward has the ability to switch between center and wing when called upon and is one of the top shootout threats in the NHL. The Islanders attempted to replace Okposo with former Winnipeg winger Andrew Ladd, but they did not fill in the void left by Nielsen.
Signing Andrew Ladd
There wasn't another move made this offseason that had as many red flags as the Islanders' seven-year, $38.5 million deal for Ladd. From 2012-13 through last season, Ladd saw a drop in his points per game from 0.96 to 0.59, and it wasn't because of bad luck. His shot rate fell, and the Jets' captain posted negative relative Corsi scores two years in a row after years of success on the shot counter.
Ladd's first year in Brooklyn has been an unmitigated disaster. He is managing only 1.64 shots on goal per game and has 12 points in 36 games -- production you might expect from a fourth-line player these days.
At age 31, a major bounce back is pretty improbable, which makes the deal crippling to the Islanders' future, especially because a buyout wouldn't create much cap space. According to Cap Friendly, the Islanders would still take $4.8 million of his cap hit. While that might not create problems now, it could restrict them down the road if they plan to re-sign Tavares when he becomes a free agent in 2018. Plus, having a player making $38.5 million when he has to play on the third or fourth line is not exactly the most efficient way of allocating cap space.
Goaltending
The Islanders made their way into the playoffs last year on the back of Thomas Griess' heroics down the stretch after Jaroslav Halak got hurt. He finished the year with a .925 save percentage in the regular season and .923 in the playoffs.
Head coach Jack Capuano chose to turn back to Halak this year, and the decision blew up in their collective face. The former Hab and Blue was waived after putting up a .904 save percentage in 20 starts. New York won just six of those starts. It's hard to say whether Griess would have the same numbers if he had been the full-time starter, but his stats are much better, winning nine of 14 starts with a .923 save percentage. It might be tough to keep up that pace with the Islanders' struggling to control the puck. They rank 29th in team Corsi percentage.
How the Islanders can get back to the top
Sell at the deadline
Islanders general manager Garth Snow has only two upcoming unrestricted free agents to work with at the deadline, but six players are set to hit the market in 2018, which could be attractive to other GMs. Proven players such as Bailey, Thomas Hickey and currently injured forward Mikhail Grabovski will have decent value for teams trying to make a final push. Bailey and Hickey come along with very reasonable cap hits of $3.3 million and $2.2 million, respectively. Neither player will demand a first-round pick but could warrant second- and third-round picks to help the Islanders rebuild or make deals in the future.
The deadline could also be an important time to make decisions on young players. Forward Ryan Strome, a 2011 first-round pick, has fallen off considerably after a 50-point rookie season. With just 13 points in 33 games, it might be time to test the waters in order to improve the team's chances to win now.
Get answers from Tavares
One player holds the key to the Islanders' future: Tavares. He is set to hit free agency in 2018, and his decision to stay or go will ultimately decide whether the Islanders have to go back into rebuild mode or keep swinging for a Stanley Cup. If their No. 1 overall pick from 2009 is willing to sign a long-term deal, Snow -- or whoever the GM is after this debacle -- can start moving assets to acquire win-now players around Tavares. If he decides to test the market, he needs to be traded as soon as possible. Even if other teams knew the Islanders' hand was forced, 29 teams would be making a call to see whether they could acquire one of the NHL's elite centers.
But the Islanders might not get that answer until next season. We saw Tampa Bay star Steven Stamkos negotiate with the Lightning all through last season before deciding to stay. Remaining in limbo will make it difficult for the team to decide whether to start tearing down or stocking up.
Be patient
Those are words that absolutely zero Islanders fans want to hear, but the Columbus Blue Jackets' success this year is an example of how quickly things can turn around for a franchise with promising young players coming up through the system. Skilled first-round picks Michael Dal Colle and Josh Ho-Sang are off to decent starts in their first AHL seasons, and 2014 fourth-round defenseman Devon Toews has 22 points in 31 AHL games. Last year's No. 16 pick Mathew Barzal was sent back to the WHL and will also likely need AHL time, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a playmaker. With a crop of quality prospects, the Islanders will eventually see some of them hit and become stars; it's just a matter of waiting, which nobody wants to do with Tavares in his prime.