The Colorado Avalanche might be the most talented last-place team in history.
With just 23 standings points in 27 games played, the Avs sit in 30th place in the NHL and only lost their foothold on the worst goal differential when the Arizona Coyotes lost 7-0 to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night.
While the Coyotes are in the midst of a full rebuild, the Avalanche's roster is stocked with some former top draft picks, a skilled puck-moving defenseman, a handful of decent veterans and a Vezina Trophy finalist goalie. Yet they haven't been close to competitive.
It was reasonable to suggest that former coach Patrick Roy was the problem. During his tenure, the Avs were consistently one of the league's worst teams in shot attempt differential, relying heavily on special teams and goaltending to win games. It worked for one season, 2013-14, in which Colorado won the Central Division with an impressive 112 points. But Roy's teams collapsed and missed the playoffs the next two seasons, and he abruptly resigned this summer.
It turns out he was far from the only problem. The Avalanche sit in 28th in Corsi for percentage, taking just 46.6 percent of total even-strength shot attempts in their games this season.
So where is the disconnect between the skilled roster and the results, and how should the Avs fix it, given that there isn't much help on the way from prospects?
Dissecting the problem
Three major issues stand out above the rest: The lack of a high-end two-way center, poor depth and a failure to understand regression and timeline.
The first is the most simple. The Avalanche battled center Ryan O'Reilly over his contract demands and ultimately traded him to Buffalo. If there is a single move that has crushed the Avs, it's that one. O'Reilly has 76 points in 92 games as a Sabre and has a plus-7.7 relative Corsi, which stands at 11th best in the NHL.
It isn't just that Colorado gave up a hardworking, skilled center; rather, the return on the deal has meant almost nothing in two years since. Center Mikhail Grigorenko was categorized as an offensive dynamo as a draft prospect, but he has managed 36 points in 100 games since being acquired by the Avs. Defenseman Nikita Zadorov is far from a finished product at 21 but has just six points in 48 games and minus-3.5 relative Corsi.
We won't know for a few more years whether the Sabres "won" the trade, but the O'Reilly swap clearly set the franchise back because they do not have a player who can counteract opponents' top forwards. Centers Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon are Nos. 1 and 2 in the NHL in shot attempts against per 60 minutes while on ice during the past two seasons, while O'Reilly has reduced shot attempts against the Sabres by 2.96 per 60 minutes, a number comparable to the Los Angeles Kings' Anze Kopitar, who is heralded as the epitome of a modern two-way center.
Some teams have worked around a shortage of two-way centermen by using defensively skilled centers in tough situations, but Colorado doesn't have that luxury. The closest thing they have is veteran Carl Soderberg, who might be passing his prime, as he's managed just a 41.1 Corsi for percentage this season.
Colorado's depth forwards aren't exactly lighting the world on fire offensively, either. They have received a total of just two even-strength goals from John Mitchell and Joe Colborne, and two more from Blake Comeau. The defensive depth was improved by acquiring Patrick Wiercioch and Fedor Tyutin this offseason but only marginally.
Charting a new direction
The Avs' problems with two-way centers and depth are overshadowed by past mistakes that were made concerning the team's mix of youth and veterans. Trading O'Reilly, a player entering his prime, for unproven prospects simply did not fit with the fact that they'd recently used high draft picks on Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog and MacKinnon. Thereafter, the win-now style acquisitions of Soderberg, Jarome Iginla and Francois Beauchemin, all 35 or older, did not fit with a team that just moved its two-way center for prospects.
And these conflicting moves are flanked by a big contract for goaltender Semyon Varlamov.
Now that Colorado is in last place, it should be easier to figure out the direction. They have to find out whether older players like Iginla will waive their no-trade clauses and accept deals to contenders (though Soderberg's contract is nearly unmovable) and sell them for draft picks.
The much harder decision will come as the Avs assess their core players. Is it time to move either Duchene or Landeskog? There is a case to be made for moving either one.
Who should they trade?
Duchene has proved to be a strong even-strength point producer, with 2.20 points per 60 even-strength minutes during the past three seasons, but he is not a defensive force. Landeskog is second on the team in five-on-five scoring rate, at 1.78 per 60 since 2014-15, and is a better two-way player. They are both coming into their primes and have very high value on the open market, especially considering they have reasonable contracts. They also have enough shortcomings to believe that a change could be positive.
The Avalanche could stockpile first-round picks and prospects and focus their rebuild around MacKinnon and whomever they pick at the top of the draft this summer.
The other option would be to make a Taylor Hall-for-Adam Larsson style of trade. The Avalanche could acquire another player around the same age that would contribute a different skill set, and set their focus on filling out the roster with savvy free agent moves. Could they get a top-four defenseman to go along with Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie? Or a replacement center for O'Reilly?
There is also an argument for moving MacKinnon, who is probably more valuable than Duchene or Landeskog. First, he has not taken major steps forward after scoring 63 points in his rookie campaign. His points-per-game clip is nearly the same (0.73) as it was during his rookie season (0.77), while we would have projected it to rise significantly. Of course, playing on struggling teams has likely had an impact on his growth and totals.
MacKinnon has a better Corsi for percentage since the start of 2015-16 than either Duchene or Landeskog but has only scored at a clip of 1.62 points per 60 even-strength minutes.
The worrisome stat on MacKinnon is his absurd shot rate and lack of goals. MacKinnon and Duchene have both played 99 games since the start of 2015-16, and MacKinnon has 59 more shots on goal and 12 fewer goals. Being a volume shooter can be good, but MacKinnon now has a shooting percentage under nine percent for three seasons running. That's around the same as Mikko Koivu or Tomas Plekanec -- players you wouldn't want taking 3.7 shots per game like MacKinnon does.
Still, the former first overall pick probably deserves the benefit of the doubt because of his age and all the ups and downs of his early career.
Looking ahead
Regardless of whether the Avs move one of their three young players, one thing is absolutely essential to bouncing back: finishing in last place. Over the years, many teams have made late-season runs that turned out to be detrimental to their long-term outlook.
While the reality is that a team isn't going to set out to specifically "tank," it's clear that having another high-end talent in the group would help jump-start a needed rebuild, so finishing in the NHL's basement isn't the worst thing in the world. And dealing Duchene or Landeskog for prospects or draft picks would certainly help in that regard, given what the team has accomplished with them thus far this season.