Last season, Carey Price missed all but 12 games, which completely derailed Montreal's season. In the end, the Canadiens allowed 47 more goals than they did in 2014-15, dropped 28 points in the standings and missed the playoffs.
Given that Jonathan Quick is perceived to be an equally elite goalie, are the Los Angeles Kings in similar trouble, with news that he'll miss around three months?
Not at all. According to the underlying numbers, there's absolutely no reason for the Kings to hit the panic button or try to acquire a big-name goalie with an even bigger cap hit.
The Kings are a strong puck possession team that doesn't rely on lights-out goaltending to win games. Although they're unlikely to steal any games, the backup tandem of Jeff Zatkoff and Peter Budaj should be just fine and might limit the damage of this injury to three goals during the course of Quick's absence.
Three goals
Yes, Quick's absence might cost the Kings only three goals.
At a high level, it's easy to estimate the impact of an injured goalie. If you figure out the difference between Quick's save percentage and those of his replacements, then multiply that by the number of shots the goalie is likely to face, you arrive at just three goals. In the worst-case scenario, assume Quick is out until after the All-Star Game the Kings are hosting Jan. 29 at Staples Center. That means his next game would be game No. 50 for the club against the Arizona Coyotes on Jan. 31.
Last season, the Kings faced just 27.5 shots per game, which is the most the team has allowed in five seasons. As such, Quick would have played about 40 of the 49 games and faced 27.5 shots per game, which equates to 1,100 total shots. Of those shots, Quick would have made 1,007 saves, based on his career save percentage of .916, which is roughly the same as it has been in recent seasons.
How many of those 1,100 shots will his backups stop? Zatkoff will likely handle 30 of those 40 games, and he has a .914 career save percentage. Because that's based on only 37 games, it's helpful to confirm that with his performance in the AHL, in which he has a .915 save percentage in 200 career games.
The remaining 10 starts would likely be assigned to veteran Peter Budaj. The past five seasons, Budaj has a .909 save percentage in 55 NHL games and a sparkling .922 save percentage in 79 games in the AHL. If either goalie struggles or gets injured, the Kings would play the recently acquired Jack Campbell, who has a career .908 save percentage in 122 AHL games.
If it can be reasonably predicted that Zatkoff and Budaj (or Campbell) will combine for a .913 save percentage, then it will result in 1,004 saves on 1,100 shots -- or only three fewer than Quick. Another statistician might wind up with slightly different results, based on the length of the absence, the number of shots and how well the replacements will perform, but it won't be much greater than three goals.
Applying hockey's 3-1-1 rule, which states that every three goals scored or prevented result in one point in the standings, those three goals will cost the team only a single point. That's hardly the disaster Montreal faced last season.
Life without Quick
Even after crunching those numbers, it doesn't seem right that Quick's absence would cost the team only three goals. However, that assessment fits with how well the team has performed in the past when Quick had a day off.
The past six seasons, Quick's four backups have posted a combined .920 save percentage and 2.14 goals-against average in 124 games, which are actually superior to Quick's save percentage of .918 and GAA of 2.17 in that same period.
Does it make sense that Quick's backups have a better save percentage than he does? It's possible the backups have had their numbers boosted by luck or favorable playing conditions, but that isn't typically the case. As explored in Hockey Abstract 2014, backup goalies tend to play primarily on the road and get the lion's share of the second games in back-to-back road trips, so their save percentages tend to be pulled down -- not up.
In fairness, the Kings have been blessed with some solid backups, including Martin Jones and Jonathan Bernier, who went on to be starting goalies. However, since even career backups such as Ben Scrivens and Jhonas Enroth performed at a high level, it stands to reason that Zatkoff and Budaj can hold down the fort.
What the Kings should do
There will be some teams that look at L.A.'s misfortune as an opportunity to try to unload a high-priced goalie, such as Winnipeg's Ondrej Pavelec or Detroit's Jimmy Howard, but GM Dean Lombardi shouldn't listen to those offers for long. The Kings are not the Canadiens, and they don't need to be bailed out by their goaltenders as often as most teams.
That's why they should give Zatkoff and Budaj the opportunity they deserve and not make any rash decisions, even after one or two bad starts. If history is any example, Quick's value to this team might be overstated -- and might cost them only three goals and a single point in the standings.