It's very early and a lot changes during the course of the draft season, but as of now, the 2017 draft class is one of the weakest of the past few years. Bad drafts like 2012 can still produce many good NHL players, but in general, bad NHL teams aren't going to be rolling in future stars.
For example, Nolan Patrick -- the projected first overall pick -- probably would have been picked between third and fifth in the 2016 class. His production is comparable to Pierre-Luc Dubois, who was picked third overall by Columbus in 2016.
Aside from Patrick at No. 1, there isn't a perfect consensus as to who belongs in the top tier.
I've seen most of this draft class in live viewings, with more notes supplemented by discussions with scouts and video scouting.
1. Nolan Patrick, C, Brandon (WHL)
A fairly easy choice for the top prospect, Patrick is described by scouts as a player with no noticeable flaws while at the same time doing almost everything at an above-average level or better. His vision and shot are both top-end skills, and he can skate, win battles and take his checks competently at the center position. He makes so many small yet very smart plays all over the ice that he really distinguishes himself. He projects to step into the league in 2017-18 and provide stability down the middle for an NHL organization.
2. Eeli Tolvanen, RW, Sioux City (USHL)
Tolvanen was fantastic at the under-17 and under-18 championships, leading both tournaments in goals. And one NHL team's head scout thought he looked better at the World Junior Championship camp than he did at either of those events. He's an electrifying offensive talent, with top-line speed, puck skills and an instinct to know how to make tough plays to set up scoring chances. Can he translate his dominance internationally into giant numbers in the USHL? That's the big question this season.
3. Klim Kostin, RW, Dynamo Moscow (KHL)
Kostin's KHL season has been sub-optimal, to say the least, as he's playing roughly three minutes per game. I don't think he can leave for junior hockey in Canada at this point, but that discussion is happening with more frequency. His under-18 championship play last spring and in the Ivan Hlinka memorial tournament this past summer left really strong impressions. A 6-foot-3 winger who can make top-end skill plays, play a power game, and kill penalties doesn't stay on the board very long. If his skating can improve, he has a real high ceiling.
4. Timothy Liljegren, D, Rogle (SHL)
A case of mononucleosis early in the season makes Liljegren's draft campaign a little bumpier than he had hoped. When he returns, he's expected to be an offensive leader for Rogle, as he was already running their power play as a 16-year-old. His skill level is elite, he's a great skater and can control the game. Liljegren has to reign in the risk in his game and bulk up; his defensive IQ isn't too shabby, but it's not a strength.
5. Nico Hischier, C, Halifax (QMJHL)
Hischier is a player I've done quite a lot of research on for this ranking, talking to a lot of European scouts. The feedback was near universal praise. "He's a player who controls the puck," said one Switzerland-based scout. "You notice him, he can dominate." His skill and vision have always impressed me, but his skating looks high-end now. He's also not a pipsqueak, checking in at 6-foot-1.
6. Maxime Comtois, LW, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
Comtois is probably not the most exciting prospect I've ever covered, but he's consistent and does a lot of things well. He's a very good skater, plays hard, defends well and has above-average skill. He could be a tad more creative with the puck, but he gets his chances because of his speed and awareness off the play. He should put up significant scoring numbers in the Q this season, but he has his detractors. "He's just bland," said one NHL scout. "I've never seen him have a fantastic game."
7. Gabriel Vilardi, C, Windsor (OHL)
Vilardi saw his ice time get cut as Windsor loaded up last season, but he should be a top player for them in his draft campaign. He's a big, strong pivot (who has opened the season on the wing) with great hands and offensive instincts. On top of being a premier playmaker, he'll also do well in battles, initiating contact and coming out with his fair share of pucks. His skating is his most notable flaw, as he struggles to get out of the gate.
8. Kristian Vesalainen, LW, Frolunda (SHL)
A Finn playing in the top Swedish league, Vesalainen has started off the season as an important player for his team. Big wingers who can skate and dangle are a rare type of player, so it will be no surprise if Vesalainen goes even earlier than where I have him slotted. I don't love his hockey sense, but it's not so bad that it's an issue. I'm more concerned with his play off the puck. However, his tools are elite if he can harness it.
9. Callan Foote, D, Kelowna (WHL)
Adam Foote's kid put up significant scoring totals last season in the WHL, and should do so again this season. He's a tall, bulky defenseman with good stick skills, and makes plays at both ends of the rink. His skating isn't the best, but it's decent for a 6-foot-3 player, and he can make plays because of his good overall hockey sense and work ethic. Foote will be a candidate for Canada's WJC team this season.
10. Martin Necas, C, Brno (Czech Extraliga)
Necas has been blowing scouts away since the start of the scouting season in the summer. He had a ridiculously impressive Ivan Hlinka tournament, and based on how he's performing in the top Czech league, he could have the best 17-year-old season in that league since Jiri Hudler and Milan Michalek. He's one of the best speedsters in the draft, with great vision and skill.
11. Owen Tippett, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
Tippett is a fun player to watch due to his fantastic skating. He measures in at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, but jets around the ice like a smurf on skates. He couples that with good hands and a plus shot, which combine to make him a deadly offensive force. Tippett could afford to go east-west a little more, but in his second OHL season I expect a ton of shots on goal -- and in turn goals.
12. Casey Mittelstadt, C, Green Bay (USHL)
The top American prospect in this class, Mittelstadt is a player with a ton of skill to his game, and can dazzle on any given shift. His puck skills are high-end, he's a great playmaker and skates well too. There are issues with his game away from the puck. He's not exactly the most physical player in the world or the best defensively, but he can score, and that has value.
13. Miro Heiskanen, D, HIFK (Liiga)
Heiskanen is a very young player, as a July birth date, and yet he has been a top-four defenseman for HIFK in the top Finnish league. He's a very smart player who can control the play because of how quickly and effectively he makes decisions. Heiskanen can lead a rush with his above-average speed, but he's more effective moving the puck. His defense is pretty good for a player his age but gaining a lot of bulk and being able to win more battles will go a long way in that area.
14. Lias Andersson, C, HV71 (SHL)
A decent regular so far this season in the SHL, Andersson been tracking well for several years and should be at the WJC for Sweden. He's a small yet strong center who can play on the inside and win battles. He's decent defensively and on the draw, and he can score too, but his bread and butter is his vision as a playmaker. Swedish scouts I talk to are optimistic about his projection as a top-six center in the NHL.
15. Kailer Yamamoto, LW, Spokane (WHL)
I've seen a lot of Yamamoto during the last year, and I might just be going to the wrong games, because I see huge numbers in the box scores but have never observed him being flat-out dominant. Yamamoto is a high-end playmaker with shifty elements to his game. I also like how he battles for pucks despite being 5-foot-8.
16. Ryan Poehling, C, St. Cloud State (NCHC)
Poehling opened a lot of eyes with his performance at the Ivan Hlinka tournament. The former first overall pick in the USHL will skip junior hockey entirely and play in college as a 17-year-old. Poehling is a very good skater for a 6-foot-3 player, who sees the ice well and makes plays consistently. His skill level isn't elite, but he can make above-average moves in open ice to create space.
17. Michael Rasmussen, C, Tri-City (WHL)
Rasmussen has been very impressive in the WHL the past two seasons. He's a big center at 6-foot-6, and can make difficult offensive plays. His hockey sense is his best trait, as he sees the ice well, knows where to be on the ice, and is aware on his defensive responsibilities. His skating probably will never be a selling point, but the rest of his game impresses.
18. Ivan Lodnia, RW, Erie (OHL)
One of the most dynamic playmakers in this age group, Lodnia isn't great defensively -- so I can understand the skepticism -- but anytime he's near the puck something happens. He's a very creative and skilled puck handler with the patience and vision to make plays, and the shot to finish them. He also skates well enough, though not a high level, to be a threat on the outside if he's not moving the puck.
19. Nick Suzuki, C, Owen Sound (OHL)
Suzuki has grown on me. His performance at the Ivan Hlinka was very impressive, manning the No. 1 center position for Canada after Vilardi was injured. Mind you, it was Canada's worst performance there in a decade, but that's not all on Suzuki. He's a well-rounded pivot, with high-level speed, hands, and the ability to make plays at both ends despite a smaller frame. He's not very dynamic, but he produces.
20. Nic Hague, D, Mississauga (OHL)
A 6-foot-6, well-rounded defenseman, Hague's skating isn't explosive, but he skates well enough. He also moves the puck competently, wins a ton of battles, and understands the position in his own end. When I saw him last season, I was skeptical about how much offensive upside he had, but he has looked strong moving the puck at the start of this season.
21. Matthew Strome, LW, Hamilton (OHL)
If you don't recognize this last name, you likely haven't been following prospects very closely during the last decade. The brother of the New York Islanders' fifth overall pick from 2011 (Ryan Strome) and the Arizona Coyotes' third overall pick from 2015 (Dylan Strome) is not as dynamic as his older brothers, but is still a very good player in his own right. He's skilled, sees the ice very well, and has a big frame he uses to control the puck. Strome isn't a great skater, nor is he a defensive stalwart, but he can put up points.
22. Erik Brännström, D, HV71 (J20 SuperElit)
Brännström played one game in the SHL but has spent most of his time in the Swedish junior league, where he has been one of the league's best so far this season. Other than his size (5-foot-10), every other attribute is a positive. Brännström skates well, can handle the puck off the rush, and displays great intelligence at both ends of the rink.
23. Markus Phillips, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
I've loved Phillips every time I've seen him on the ice, and he's off to a very impressive start to the OHL season. He's a very mobile two-way defenseman with excellent hockey sense. His skill isn't high-end, but it's good enough, given his smarts, to make offensive plays. He's undersized and needs to add bulk, but is a very reliable defensive player due to his reads, feet and work ethic. Canada's 1999 defense group is pretty bad, but he's a shining light in that area.
24. Henri Jokiharju, D, Portland (WHL)
Jokiharju is another player who has impressed me every time I've scouted him. He's a small defenseman but does so much well at both ends of the rink. He has plus skating, plus hockey sense, along with an ability to move the puck well with solid to above-average hands. He has a shot to make Finland's WJC team.
25. Alexander Chmelevski, C, Ottawa (OHL)
Early on, Chmelevski has been fantastic for the 67's, and had a very strong Ivan Hlinka tournament. NHL scouts rave about his hockey sense, as he's a high-end playmaker who can make creative plays at top speeds. I see a guy who makes a lot of plays with his head, but I haven't seen him take over a game with his skill. Nevertheless, he has been a shots-on-goal machine.
26. Juuso Välimäki, D, Tri-City (WHL)
Välimäki has been a name on the radar for a long time, and has looked great to start his second WHL season. He's a big, bulky player at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds. He's a pretty good skater who can lead a rush well, despite a lack of sublime puck skills. He moves the puck with intelligence, and takes care of his job in his own end through reads and great effort. I'm curious to see if his offense can reach another level this season.
27. Adam Ruzicka, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
Ruzicka turned my head when I saw him play last spring, and he has continued to look strong through the early parts of this campaign. He's pretty skilled for a 6-foot-4 forward, and can make plays at an impressive level. His hockey IQ allows him to set up and create, on top of being a competent defensive forward. He's not a highlight-reel player, but he makes NHL-caliber plays. I see some bursts in his skating, but he could use more development in that area.
28. Shane Bowers, C, Waterloo (USHL)
I'm not completely sold on Bowers as a top-flight prospect, but I see enough tools there to warrant a mention. I see the big-time skating ability, and his work ethic, but I question how well he can do in the east-west game. He has skill, but he's not what I would describe as a premier playmaker. His ability to win battles, defend, and make a fair amount of offensive plays is notable though.
29. Marcus Davidsson, C, Djurgarden (SHL)
Davidsson has been a bottom-six forward for his SHL team this season. He's a two-way center, with pretty good awareness at both ends to give him value, which is important because his skill set isn't explosive. He can skate and handle the puck at a pro level, but he won't create highlight-reel plays. His vision and awareness allow him to maximize his tools.
30. Urho Vaakanainen, D, JYP (Liiga)
There has been a lot of hype around Vaakanainen during the last year, and while he hasn't blown me away, there are certainly some tools there. He skates well, has decent size and is a very calm puck mover. I can see him as a solid two-way defenseman, but I question how much upside he has beyond that.
31. Grant Mismash, LW, USA Under-18 (USHL)
Mismash is a solid power winger who can make some skilled plays, is very physical and wins a lot of battles. This combination of elements allows him to be very useful in helping his team keep puck possession. He can be a bit dull on the ice, so I'm not sure he stays in my first-round range through June, but he showed enough as a 17-year-old to stay here for now.
32. Aleksi Heponiemi, C, Swift Current (WHL)
Heponiemi is a 5-foot-9 forward who wasn't even in Finland's top junior league last season. So why is he listed here? Well I love watching him play. He's a great skater and a great playmaker, who has a real offensive flair to his game in how he creates chances. He can try to do too much and get caught flat-footed, but he's always around the puck, creating scoring chances. If he can round out his game, I see a player who could score at the NHL level.