Almost three years ago to the day, then-Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters at the NFL scouting combine that he had "no intention" of trading star quarterback Russell Wilson while never shooting down the possibility outright.
Carroll's carefully crafted words left some wiggle room, because as he was trying to keep a lid on an already difficult situation, general manager John Schneider was spending part of his time in Indianapolis in a clandestine meeting with his Denver Broncos counterpart, hammering out details of a blockbuster trade that would be finalized the next week.
During his media session, Carroll also said the Seahawks "expect" to keep linebacker Bobby Wagner, whose release would then be announced on the same day news broke of Wilson's trade to Denver.
The lesson: You can't take everything that teams say this time of year at face value.
Which brings us to what Schneider said Tuesday at the 2025 combine about Geno Smith, whose uncertain future in Seattle is a leading storyline for the third consecutive offseason. With one year left on his contract, the veteran quarterback is eligible for an extension that would put that question to rest, at least for the time being.
"We're going to meet with him this week, meet with his agent," Schneider told reporters in Indianapolis, via Brian Nemhauser of Hawkblogger. "We'll see where it goes."
Schneider was asked whether there's any deadline to get a deal done.
"No, he's got another year," the GM said. "We expect him to be our guy, but we want to do what's right, too."
Given what has been the team's lukewarm view of Smith as its long-term answer, plus the fact that he's coming off another up-and-down season, Schneider's comments reflected this possibility: Seattle is prepared to give the quarterback an extension that will come with a reasonable raise, but that Schneider would let him play out the final year of the deal -- or explore a potential trade -- in lieu of paying him anywhere near the top of the market.
The $25 million average of the three-year deal Smith signed as a soon-to-be free agent in 2023 ranks 19th among quarterbacks, and last among full-time starters who aren't on a rookie contract. That same average adjusted for the 2025 salary cap of $279.2 million would be around $31 million, but that would keep Smith in his current per-year ranking since Baker Mayfield is 18th at $33.33 million per year.
One contract analyst from a prominent agency estimated before the combine that an extension for Smith could look similar to Mayfield's three-year, $100 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Smith has an airtight case for a raise, between the 10-7 record he led the Seahawks to in 2024, the nine game-winning drives he's engineered over the past two seasons (tied for most in the NFL in that span) and the exploding market for quarterback salaries, which now tops out at $60 million per year.
But Smith is 34 and ranks 21st in QBR over the past two seasons. Even with the obvious caveats of 2024, when he was stuck behind a bad offensive line and didn't have a consistent run game to lean on, the combination of his age and performance since his Pro Bowl season in 2022 suggests that whatever raise the Seahawks give Smith won't bump him too far up the APY (average per year) rankings.
Either way, the Seahawks will have to do something about Smith's $44.5 million cap number, which increased by $6 million thanks to escalators he reached in the season finale. That $6 million is now part of a $16 million bonus Smith will earn if he remains on Seattle's roster on March 16.
Check out some key facts about new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
While Schneider said there isn't a deadline to extend Smith, doing so before the start of free agency would be ideal, since it would give the Seahawks a clear idea of the amount of money they'll have left to spend on the rest of the roster.
In the event that the two sides were too far apart to get something done and/or if another quarterback-needy team -- say, Carroll's Las Vegas Raiders -- blew the Seahawks away with a trade offer, they'd similarly have incentive to work that out before paying Smith his $16 million bonus. In theory, though, trading him after paying him the bonus would increase the trade value of his contract -- akin to Seattle giving up a second-round pick for Leonard Williams in 2023 after the New York Giants agreed to pay most of his remaining salary.
What about the possibility of Smith playing out the final year of his deal? That could be a difficult proposition given how he unsuccessfully fought for an extension last offseason.
The most likely scenario all along has been Smith getting a new deal -- and it would likely come between the combine and free agency or later in the offseason, when the Seahawks typically extend players who are already under contract.
"I'd love to announce it right now, that we're rolling and Geno's extended and I'd stop getting the question, absolutely," coach Mike Macdonald told reporters in Indianapolis. "But you've got to respect the process, too."
Macdonald had already been asked during his media session whether he anticipates Smith returning in 2025.
"I do," he said with a laugh. "I've gotten that question a lot. I've answered it pretty consistently."
The Seahawks don't have any obvious alternatives.
They own pick Nos. 18 and 50 (plus six others) in a weak quarterback draft that may only have two first-round talents at the position. They don't have an heir apparent either.
When asked if Sam Howell is still a potential starter, which the Seahawks considered him to be when they acquired him via trade last March, Schneider sounded excited to see him in new coordinator Klint Kubiak's offense. But no one could reasonably view Howell as a viable replacement option in 2025 given the way he struggled last offseason and in a disastrous relief appearance in December.
Macdonald sounded similarly excited about Smith's fit in Kubiak's scheme, noting its track record of quarterbacks playing on time, with plenty of designed movement outside of the pocket movement that helps keep them clean.
"The things we know about Geno: He's tough as crap, he's smart, he's accurate as hell, he throws a great ball, sees the field, plays with anticipation, ultimate competitor," Macdonald said. "You line those things up with the things that we're going to be doing, you've got to be excited."