JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Last week tight end Evan Engram was asked how the Jacksonville Jaguars could jump-start an offense that has been occasionally efficient, sporadically effective and plagued by slow starts.
He paused, buzzed his lips, paused again, smiled, and then started talking.
"I mean, it's very simple," Engram said. "We've got to play better. We've got to execute. Everybody has to do their job better. Very simple. ... We're going to attack it head on. The energy in here is great. Attitudes are great."
Engram knows, however, that it's not simple. Even when the Jaguars have done all the things he spoke about, the offense hasn't worked as well as it did in the second part of 2022 and first part of 2023.
"Everything is disjointed and disconnected," said ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, a former quarterback who spent seven seasons as a backup in the NFL with four teams.
Injuries, a dropoff in pre-snap motion, ineffectiveness on third downs, emphasis on going downfield, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence's inconsistency have all played a role in the Jaguars 3-14 record in the last 17 games, dating back to last season.
To understand how they got here, we have to look at where they were.
The Jaguars finished the 2022 season ranked 10th in scoring, total yards, and passing yards. The offense dipped a bit early in 2023, but it was good enough to see the Jaguars get to 8-3 and be in contention for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs in Week 11.
Then it all fell apart.
Injuries to Lawrence (ankle, shoulder, concussion) and receiver Christian Kirk (groin) late in the season contributed to the Jaguars ending the 2023 season 1-5 and missing the playoffs.
Many expected that the offense would get back on track in 2024. It hasn't.
Lawrence (sprained left AC joint) and Kirk (broken collarbone, out for season) are injured again and the 2024 offense -- like it has been most of the season -- is anemic.
The Jaguars have totaled less than 300 yards in seven of the last 17 games. They had only failed to reach 300 yards six times from 2022 Week 1 to 2023 Week 12.
It felt like the Jaguars were headed for being a perennial top-10 offense. Now, as we hit this season's bye week, it feels like there's little margin for error to get back to that point.
"There's times where it feels like that, where you've got to be perfect," head coach Doug Pederson said. "I think kind of our season has been that way. Listen, mistakes are going to happen. Guys are battling their tails off and all of that. I think you just can't make too many mistakes and try to overcome them, especially where there's a penalty or turnover or things of that nature. Those things are hard to sometimes overcome."
The drastic dropoff in offense can be broken down to five factors:
Injuries
Lawrence and Kirk, who has missed seven games, are not the only significant offensive players to miss time. Running back Travis Etienne (two games), left guard Ezra Cleveland (two games), receiver Gabe Davis (one game, now out for the season), Engram (four games), and receiver/returner Devin Duvernay (four games) have also missed time in the last 17 games.
Scheme
The Jaguars' use of pre-snap motion has declined considerably. Per ESPN Research, from 2022 Week 1-2023 Week 12 (28 games), the Jaguars used motion at the snap on 19% of their offensive plays (13th highest in NFL). From 2023 Week 13 to 2024 Week 10, the Jaguars used motion at the snap on 11% of their offensive plays, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Why is that significant? Pre-snap motions can help identify defensive coverages, move players around to create confusion on the defense, and create matchups to exploit. Without that, their offense is simpler and easy to read.
Third downs
The Jaguars third-down efficiency has declined, despite their average distance to a first being roughly the same (6.4 average yards to go vs. 6.5). Per ESPN Research, the Jaguars have converted 35.5% of third downs over the last 17 games -- compared to 40% in the 28 games before.
Lawrence has the second-worst completion percentage (52%), fourth-worst QBR (31.4) and has the second-most turnovers (7) in the NFL on third down over the last 17 games.
The Jaguars have tried to solve their issues on third down all season.
"It all comes down to execution," Etienne said. "I think we know what we have, and it's all about just executing all about just that one play. I feel like Mac Jones really helped me ... I just see him taking deep breaths before he goes out there and I kind of just started mimicking that and I feel like it just kind of calms everything down for you.
"... Hopefully that just kind of helps us reset our mind and be ready for that play."
Lawrence's inconsistency
From the start of the 2022 season to Week 12 of 2023, Lawrence completed 67% of his passes with 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Over the last 17 games that dropped to 62% with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. More importantly, his off-target percentage jumped from 14.3% to 19%, per ESPN Research.
Part of that decline is because Lawrence has been taking more deep shots down the field, with his average air yards per attempt jumping from 7.1 to 8.9 -- which is second in the NFL over that span only to Tennessee's Will Levis (9.2), per ESPN Research.
Lawrence doesn't look like the same player he was in 2022 and the first part of 2023, Orlovsky said.
"I feel like a lot of the times the why of the playcall doesn't seem like it's really understood by the quarterback or the quarterback is expecting to do something with the ball than kind of what the desire is for the play," Orlovsky said. "... It feels like when they're calling their shot plays, Trevor's not aligned with when to rip it or whatnot.
"There's not a lot of easy completion plays that are built in. I feel like they say they want them [but] they don't call them that much. It feels [like] Trevor doesn't throw them that much. He actually doesn't throw them that well either. So I just think that there's a disconnect when it comes to what they're trying to go accomplish."
Slow starts
Over the last 17 games the Jaguars have averaged a league-worst 51.8 yards and just 2.5 points (30th) in the first quarter. Fix that and build momentum, offensive coordinator Press Taylor said, and the offense may be able to get rolling.
"It is just being able to piece some of the things [together], some of the consistency that we've lacked," Taylor said. "Obviously there's times where we like what we have early on and it doesn't work out for one reason or another. Early on to sustain a drive, converting that first third down, staying on the field early, being able to get it going at some point.
"A lot of times that's just being able to really hone in on the details but make that play early on."