"If one thing in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it's that you can kill anyone." -- Michael Corleone
Jeff Fisher was supposed to have more job security than any coach in the league. No one could ever figure out why, but Fisher proved resistant to strings of losing seasons long enough to do in far more successful coaches. Tom Coughlin got fired from the Giants after three straight losing seasons. Fisher on Sunday ensured his fifth straight losing season as Rams coach, and a little more than a week ago it was revealed that he had received a contract extension.
And then, Monday, the Rams fired Fisher with three games left in the season. And everything you thought you knew about NFL coaching job security disappeared into a Southern California rush-hour traffic jam. If Fisher can't survive a losing season anymore, who can?
The coaching seats in places such as Jacksonville, Buffalo, San Diego and Cincinnati can't feel any cooler than they did 24 hours ago. Fisher's surprise in-season firing was a reminder that the ugly January coaching-change season is just a few weeks away now. Speculation about who and where is risky business at this point -- heck, 19 percent of the season remains to be played. But there are always changes, and there's no way Los Angeles will be the only one. Here are two nuggets of info I've gathered from making calls the past couple of weeks:
Los Angeles will be an attractive job to the top candidates. Big market, clean slate, patient ownership, a quarterback who was the No. 1 overall pick, a star-caliber running back, playmakers on defense. What's going to come open that looks better? Maybe Jacksonville, if you like Blake Bortles and not having to pay state income tax. The Rams aren't on the cusp of greatness or anything, but few of the teams that hire coaches ever are. And they have a few things going for them.
Josh McDaniels, Kyle Shanahan, Teryl Austin, Jim Bob Cooter, Sean McDermott ... these are the candidate names you've heard and will hear again. Jim Schwartz can get back into the cycle if Philadelphia's defense finishes strong. Rising young stars such as Washington offensive coordinator Sean McVay and Miami defensive coordinator Vance Joseph could get calls. Dallas offensive coordinator Scott Linehan could potentially parlay the success of his rookie-driven offense into a return to the interview circuit. But a surprise name to watch is Mike Smith, the former Falcons coach who's now running a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that's keying a potential playoff run. Smith was 56-24 and made the playoffs four times in his first five seasons as Falcons head coach, then flamed out to the tune of 10-22 in the final two. He got some attention last year -- the Giants and Dolphins interviewed him for their head-coaching jobs before turning elsewhere -- and he's well-regarded around the league.
So yeah, it may feel early to be talking about this. But a month from now, the non-playoff NFL world will be consumed by it. And Monday's news let everyone know that it has already begun.
What else did we learn in Week 14?
The New York Giants killed it in free agency
We hear all the time that free agency isn't an instant fix. But for the Giants' defense, the 2016 free-agent class is an all-time winner. The Giants identified the players they wanted in free agency and then made sure to spend literally whatever they needed to spend to sign them. All three of the guys they brought in from other teams have performed up to their contracts so far. Janoris Jenkins has been a lockdown cornerback. Damon Harrison remains, as he was with the Jets, the best run-stopping defensive tackle in the league. And Olivier Vernon has rejuvenated the pass rush with his relentless motor and versatility.
Add in Jason Pierre-Paul, a free-agent re-sign who was playing very well before groin surgery sidelined him last week, and the breakout of second-year safety Landon Collins, and the Giants have a defense capable of winning a game by itself. They made every play but one against the Cowboys on Sunday night, and so when their offense finally made its one play -- an electrifying 61-yard Odell Beckham Jr. catch-and-run touchdown -- it was enough to end Dallas' 11-game winning streak.
The Cowboys are 11-2, and the Giants have beaten them twice. That defense has a chance to be the Cowboys' biggest January roadblock. It's the only thing Dallas hasn't been able to overcome.
The Denver Broncos are in real trouble
The loss to Tennessee was, on paper, the defending Super Bowl champions' best chance to win a game the rest of the season. That doesn't mean they're going to lose the rest of their games and finish 8-8, but they absolutely could lose at home to the Patriots, at Kansas City and at home to the Raiders to close out the season. Denver is running an increasingly distant third in the AFC West and playing around on the fringes of the wild-card race. And while, yes, the Broncos did finish strong last season when it looked as if they might not get in, the schedule is not in their favor this season.
If Tom Brady is in the MVP conversation, Le'Veon Bell should be too
My feelings on Brady as an MVP candidate should be well known by now. He may be the best player in the league, playing the most important position on the best team. But the fact that he missed one-quarter of the season means his performance needs to be clearly better than those of the other candidates if he's to win the award. So, same thing with Steelers running back Bell. But if you disagree with me, and you think that missing a chunk of the season shouldn't be a disqualifying factor, then you have to consider Bell, who right now is the Steelers' offense. He had 298 of the Steelers' 460 yards and all three of their touchdowns Sunday. In Pittsburgh's past four games -- all wins -- Bell has 53.9 percent of the team's total yardage and five of its 11 touchdowns. The Steelers are working him hard, in the running game and in the passing game, and making up for time lost to the three-game drug suspension with which he began the year. What remains to be seen is whether they sign him to a long-term deal after this season or keep him around on the franchise tag and keep working him this way.
Matt Barkley may not be just some placeholder joke
Much was made last week of the Browns running Robert Griffin III out there the final four games to see if he can be part of their quarterback solution next season. So far, it looks drastically otherwise. But over in Chicago, Barkley has looked remarkably competent the past two weeks starting for the Bears in place of the injured Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer. And with Cutler likely on his way out and no obvious instant-helper solutions in the draft, Barkley may have a chance to position himself to compete for the job next summer. Barkley will get a boost from the return of top receiver Alshon Jeffery from suspension this week, and if he finishes with three strong games, don't be surprised if he's in the mix. There aren't any Peyton Manning-level solutions kicking around on the market.
The Kansas City Chiefs have players who can elevate them above 'very good' come January
Kansas City has won 21 of its past 25 games. But there long has been a sense, since Andy Reid got there in 2013, that the Chiefs would be good but would struggle to be great. Alex Smith is a steady quarterback, but not the kind of downfield dazzler you need to elevate past the other top teams in the playoffs. But the return of pass-rusher Justin Houston from injury has made it clear that Kansas City has a Von Miller/Khalil Mack-type difference-maker on defense. (Can the Steelers or Patriots, for example, say the same?) And the breakout of rookie receiver Tyreek Hill gives the Chiefs an offensive difference-maker the likes of which Reid hasn't had since he coached DeSean Jackson in Philadelphia. If the Chiefs keep winning, they'll get a good seed in the AFC playoffs -- maybe even the best one. And they have the kinds of difference-makers on either side of the ball that you need to have if you want to win those games.