Tuley's Take: Super Bowl ATS pick

The dogs have been good on the NFL's biggest stage, going 8-3 ATS the past 11 years with five of those being outright upsets. That hasn't always been the case (at least those of the older generation remember), as Super Bowls in the 1980's and 90's used to be known for blowouts, usually by the favorite. Even when there were upsets, they seemed to be blowouts (Oakland Raiders over Philadelphia Eagles 27-10 in 1981, the Los Angeles Raiders over Washington Redskins 38-9 in 1984, Washington over Denver 42-10 in 1988), but it's interesting to note that with this recent underdog run, faves/dogs are now 22-22-2 ATS in Super Bowl history.

But enough about history. Let's look at this Sunday's game (including some of those ever-popular props).

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked 49ers

Public perception: The public, as well as the wiseguys, jumped on the underdog Ravens early. The line opened 49ers minus-5 at the majority of books here in Nevada and 4.5 at most of the others (though it should be noted that it opened 49ers minus-6.5 at the Peppermill up in Reno, but that's mainly because they expected to be flooded with money from San Francisco visitors this weekend -- as long as the highway through the mountains isn't snowed over). As you can see from the 53 percent number from ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the split has leveled off as the number has settled at 3.5. The 49ers are regarded as the better team on both sides of the ball (whether you look at overall record or statistics) and they certainly have their share of supporters, but the Ravens have also earned a lot of respect by going into Denver and into New England and pulling off road upsets.

Wiseguys' view: It looks like 3.5 is the best betting number for this game. Plenty of wiseguys were quick to grab the Ravens at plus-4 and higher, but just as many would love to get 49ers minus-3 (so if you see that become available, don't expect it to last long) or for the money line on the straight-up winner to drop. This usually happens in Super Bowls since the public tends to bet the spread on the favorite and the money line on the dog, so the price is likely to drop over the weekend. The sharps know there isn't too much separating these two teams (both obviously got hot at the right time), and any argument can be negated by a counter-argument. For instance, many will say the 49ers are much better with Kaepernick than Alex Smith, but they were 6-2-1 with Smith and now 7-2 with Kaepernick.

Tuley's Take: I bet the Ravens at plus-4 before it dropped to 3.5 at the majority of books, but as of this writing late Wednesday, there are some 4's out there and I expect to see some more pop up during the week. I feel the Ravens will have to pass against the 49ers, just like the Falcons last week, and will have success. Torrey Smith is the deep threat, but even if Joe Flacco doesn't air it out like Matt Ryan last week, he should have Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta on routes underneath and Ray Rice out of the backfield.

The Ravens defense, while No. 21 in the league during the regular season, is playing better now that they're all healthy and while Jim Harbaugh should also benefit from the extra week. the coaches and players have plenty of film to devise a game plan like the Falcons did to contain Kaepernick. I don't expect either defense to completely shut down the other, but if I have to pick one QB to be forced into that one costly mistake, it would be Kaepernick. And if I have to pick one defense to make that one big play, it would be the Ravens. The pick: Ravens.

Super Bowl proposition wagers suggestions

Joe Flacco over 21 completions: I do believe the Ravens won't be able to run wild on the 49ers, so I expect them to throw early and often. Rice will also be more of a likely target out of the backfield, as opposed to getting direct handoffs. This bet also acts as a bit of a hedge on my Ravens' game bet because if they're trailing early, they'll definitely have to be passing more. But unlike a regular hedge bet, I expect to win this and my main wager.

Longest TD of game over 45.5 yards: This also includes kick/punt returns and defensive returns, but I'm mostly expecting this to hit as both quarterbacks aren't shy about airing it out deep instead of throwing to a safety valve. I expect at least one long touchdown pass (maybe one from each team).

Total number of sacks under 4: Neither team gets a lot of sacks (except for San Fran's Aldon Smith and he hasn't had a sack in five games) and Flacco and Kaepernick are good at avoiding sacks. The number of combined sacks in these two teams' five combined playoff games hasn't gone over 4 in any game. The oddsmakers know all this, too, which is why it's lower than the usual 4.5 or 5 that we see for this prop, but I still expect if I don't win this bet to at least get the push.

Number of different players to attempt a pass over 2.5: This is a hunch on what would normally be a sucker's bet. Obviously Flacco and Kaepernick make two passers, and we just need one more (which rarely happens, which is why we're getting plus-290). But I have to believe with the Harbaugh brothers coaching against each other that we'll see a trick play or two, so a pass on a fake punt or field goal attempt, or off an end-around with Randy Moss or Boldin would do it. This would also cash if it's a blowout and a backup quarterback comes in relief or in garbage time (note: it's in poor taste to cheer for an injury to win a bet like this, but it does add to the possibility of this going over).