With the NFL playoffs finally here, it's time for my annual preview. If you don't have time to watch the postseason this month and the Super Bowl in February, this article makes it really simple: I lay out who will win each of the 13 playoff games and why. No need to tune in.
That's a slight exaggeration. All it takes is one wrong prediction to throw off this entire bracket, and I will consider myself lucky to make it through the first Saturday of wild-card weekend going 3-for-3. All the preparation or research in the world means nothing if a quarterback tears his UCL in the first half, as Brock Purdy did in the NFC Championship Game two years ago, or if the conditions freeze out an entire team, as they did for the Dolphins in Kansas City last year. One bad call or a run of fumble luck could mean a lot more than a team's true level of play against its opponent.
Instead, consider this a guide to what factors might decide games, based on what we know about how these teams performed during the regular season. What were their strengths and weaknesses? How do they match up? If they played earlier in 2024, what factors from that first or second game are likely to recur in the rematch? Is there something about their roster or philosophy that might be different this time around?
Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'
Last season, for example, the Texans faced the Browns just three weeks after Cleveland had marched up and down the field and scored five touchdowns in a 36-22 victory. The Browns were thriving despite a brutal interception rate from Joe Flacco, however, and their defense had slipped after Myles Garrett had suffered a shoulder injury, a trend masked by their unsustainable turnover rate. The Texans promptly torched them 45-14 in the January rematch.
There is only one problem: I'm too attached to my priors. Before last season, I predicted that the Chiefs would beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and when both teams made it to the playoffs, I stuck with that combo in my playoff preview. You know how that went, both good and bad.
Both of the teams from my preseason Super Bowl prediction are in the 2024 bracket, and I might just stick with them again as we preview the postseason. It's just going to take a few upsets along the way. Let's start with the AFC before getting to what feels like a wide-open NFC:
Jump to a round:
Wild-card weekend: NFC | AFC
Divisional round: NFC | AFC
Conference title games: NFC | AFC
Super Bowl LIX
AFC wild-card weekend
(7) Denver Broncos at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -8.5 (46.5)
Broncos fans are understandably excited about rookie quarterback Bo Nix after a nearly perfect performance against the Chiefs. Kansas City benched its seven most-used defenders, and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzed the rookie just six times. But when a quarterback goes 26-of-29 for 321 yards with four touchdowns and runs seven times for 47 yards, it's tough to poke too many holes in the results. Nix's performance was the seventh best of the season by Total QBR (97.3).