With the 2024 regular season in the books, it's time to fill out my awards ballot. I checked my picks after Week 4 and at the midway point of the season, but with all 272 games now complete after Sunday's blowout win by the Lions over the Vikings, let's wrap up our look at what we saw during the campaign.
At least one race came down to the last game of the season. There was only one obvious winner across these various awards, and there were a handful where I could have easily justified going for the second- or third-place candidate as the winner. This was a season with very slim margins separating the best players and coaches from one another. If you're mad about your favorite player not landing in first place, keep that in mind.
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To be clear, these are my picks based on who I think should win the various awards. I'm using what I've seen and what the data suggests about this season, not who I think will win the actual awards when the league hands them out before the Super Bowl.
As usual, I'll be giving out awards for Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player. But I also have a few other awards in here as a bonus. Who's the most underrated player in football? Who had the run of the season? And what was the league's most unnecessary panic of 2024? I'll get to those frivolities as well. I'll start with an award that feels almost impossible to hand out this season:
Jump to an award:
Most Valuable Player | Best Coach
Offensive Rookie | Defensive Rookie
Offensive Player | Defensive Player
Comeback Player | Quick-hitters
Coach of the Year
There are too many candidates here. Andy Reid should get serious consideration for going 15-1 with his starters in Kansas City. Sean Payton pushed the Broncos into the postseason in a season in which they were supposed to be getting over Russell Wilson's cap hit. Dan Quinn has the Commanders in the playoffs after the team had a 4-13 record a year ago under Ron Rivera. Sean McDermott rebuilt his defense and got the Bills to 13-4. And Mike Tomlin's Steelers might have lost four straight to end the season, but they still managed to win 10 games with Wilson and Justin Fields at quarterback.
None of them made it into the top three. It's a brutal competition this season. One thing I tried to consider as a tiebreaker, as I've mentioned in my awards columns earlier this season, was how the coach's skill set directly impacted his team's performance. The Commanders ranked fourth in points per drive on offense and 22nd on defense, which hurt the candidacy for defensive-minded Quinn. (The opposite was true for Payton and the Broncos.)
3. Jim Harbaugh, Chargers
This time a year ago, the Chargers were in disarray. They finished the season losing five straight, including a 63-21 defeat to the Raiders that earned former coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco pink slips. They were facing a dismal cap situation, which would lead the franchise to cut veteran wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They felt years away from competing in the AFC West. Then they hired Harbaugh.
A year later, a 34-20 victory over the Raiders confirmed the Chargers will finish with 11 wins and the 5-seed in the AFC. Just as he did with the 49ers and at Michigan, Harbaugh has immediately turned around a struggling football team. And he has done that with a roster where just five players were able to start all 17 games without missing time. The Chargers play smart football, don't turn the ball over and are going to be a tough, physical out for any team they play in the postseason.
2. Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
O'Connell's Coach of the Year vote is a testament to his work as an offensive playcaller and his ability to win 14 games with Sam Darnold, a player many (myself included) had written off as a backup quarterback before the season. While Darnold hasn't been quite as good as some have suggested this season and struggled badly in Sunday's ugly loss to the Lions, O'Connell has done an incredible job of building an offense that gets the most of his athleticism, arm strength and ability to extend plays. O'Connell would be a perfectly reasonable choice as Coach of the Year.
While there's no doubting what O'Connell has done with Darnold, there are a few holes to poke in his candidacy. Since the J.J. McCarthy injury in the preseason, the Vikings have been one of the league's healthiest teams; the only starters they've needed to put on injured reserve have been offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending injury in midseason, and Ivan Pace, who missed the minimum of four games. They had 12 players start all 17 games.
Getting back to my argument in the introduction, I'd also suggest the Vikings have been fueled by their defense, which falls more closely under the purview of coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota finished the season ranked second in EPA (expected points added) per play on defense and 15th in EPA per play on offense. O'Connell has been excellent -- and he might have made his way to first had the Vikings won Sunday night -- but a big loss to the Lions firmly lands him in second place here.
1. Dan Campbell, Lions
Other coaches exceeded their preseason expectations by a wider margin, and that's usually what wins this award when voters file, but I'm not sure why Campbell isn't a shoo-in for this award. Winning 15 games is impressive enough in its own right, and unlike the Chiefs and Andy Reid, the Lions weren't relying on miracles to get to that 15-win mark for most of the season.
The Lions faced the fifth-toughest schedule of any team and played in the only division in which three teams won at least 10 games. They swept the Packers and Vikings, who went a combined 25-5 against the rest of the NFL. They went 7-2 against teams with winning records.
Of course, they did most of that with a roster ravaged by injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions beat the Vikings on Sunday without 16 players who are on injured reserve, including eight likely starters. By the time the game was over, they were playing without four of their five top pass rushers and their two top cornerbacks but still managed to lock up Minnesota's receivers in man coverage across the field.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn deserves plenty of credit for the defense staying afloat, and Ben Johnson's performance as offensive coordinator hardly requires any introduction, but Campbell has made his mark on game days by adding win probability with his fourth-down decision-making. There was more of the same Sunday, when three Campbell calls to go for it on fourth down led to Jahmyr Gibbs touchdowns. A fourth-down conversion early in the game led to a Gibbs touchdown run on the next play. Gibbs caught a second-half touchdown on a fourth down, and after the Lions got the Vikings to jump on a fourth-and-2 for a first down, Gibbs scored from 4 yards out to put the game to bed. Campbell could credibly have been a Coach of the Year candidate each of the past three seasons. He deserves to win this one.
My pick after Week 4: O'Connell
My pick after Week 9: Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Comeback Player of the Year
In the past, I would have leaned toward Sam Darnold as the winner for this award. Before the 2024 season, though, The Associated Press changed its criteria to encourage voters to pick players who have "demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led [them] to miss playing time the previous season."
There's an argument that playing for the Adam Gase-led Jets and Matt Rhule-era Panthers would qualify as "other circumstances," but Darnold spent last season sitting behind Brock Purdy in San Francisco. So he's out.
3. Tony Jefferson, S, Chargers
Can this be something closer to a lifetime achievement award? Jefferson sustained a multiligament knee injury in 2019 with the Ravens and sat out the rest of 2019 and all of the 2020 season. He spent 2021 with the 49ers and Ravens and 2022 with the Giants, then sustained a foot injury that led him to retire before the 2023 season.
Jefferson, 32, returned to the league this offseason and signed with the Chargers. He spent most of the season on the bench, but after injuries opened up an opportunity, he has started four of the past five games at safety. He has played more defensive snaps over that five-game stretch than he did across the previous four years combined.
2. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers
Another former Ravens player signed by general manager Joe Hortiz who has found success in L.A., Dobbins' career in Baltimore was blighted by a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles, with the latter injury costing him virtually all of the 2023 season. Signed to a one-year deal with only $50,000 guaranteed, it was unclear whether the explosive back would even make the Week 1 roster.
Instead, Dobbins broke off a 61-yard run in the opener and quickly became the lead back for the Chargers. He followed that up with a 131-yard effort against the Panthers, and though he hasn't had a 100-yard game since, he finished the season averaging 4.6 yards per carry across 195 rush attempts. Though he was put on injured reserve in November because of a knee issue, Dobbins was able to return and will be the team's lead back heading into the postseason.
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
It's probably not ideal to win two Comeback Player of the Year awards by age 28, but Burrow is probably going to do it. His first Comeback Player of the Year nod came after the 2021 season, when he returned from a serious knee injury to throw 34 touchdown passes and lead the Bengals to an improbable AFC North title.
This time, it was a wrist injury that ended Burrow's 2023 season and seemed to linger into the start of 2024. (Remember the panic when he was flexing his wrist on the sideline during a Week 1 loss to the Patriots?) He has come back and promptly produced a season for the ages, racking up a league-leading 4,928 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes. Though the Bengals weren't able to ride their late-season winning streak to the postseason, Burrow might have had his best pro season.
My pick after Week 4: Dobbins
My pick after Week 9: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Though the first 14 picks in the 2024 draft were offensive players, we've seen the defensive class come on as the season has progressed. This has been an excellent season for rookie defensive backs, in particular. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been impressive for the Eagles; Mike Sainristil has stepped in as an immediate starter on the outside for the Commanders; Terrion Arnold has started all season in a man-heavy scheme for the Lions; Tarheeb Still has stood out as a quick study for the Chargers; and Kamari Lassiter is one of several promising young defensive backs getting regular snaps for the Texans. At linebacker. Edgerrin Cooper has been a big-play machine for the Packers in limited time. All could have been in the top three here.
Instead, although there aren't many rookie pass rushers having productive seasons, two standouts make it into my top three. And for all the talented cornerbacks emerging across the league, I went with a safety as my third pick:
3. Calen Bullock, S, Texans
Pick: No. 78
Coverage stats can be a little misleading for safeties, given that they aren't always latching onto single receivers and aren't necessarily at the center of a play when they make a mistake that leads to a big gain. With that being said, Bullock has the best passer rating allowed for any defensive back in the league this season (39.5). He has contributed to that figure by intercepting five passes, the most of any rookie.
Playing almost exclusively as a deep safety, Bullock has been part of the league's best downfield pass defense. On throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Texans have produced a league-best 57.6 QBR, with opposing quarterbacks completing 36.2% of their passes and throwing as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (12). They were also the league's best defense in single-high looks, posting a 39.2 QBR allowed, with Bullock often playing that center-field role.
2. Jared Verse, Edge, Rams
Pick: No. 19
Verse was the best rookie pass rusher for most of 2024. He turned 16.8% of his pass-rushing opportunities into pressures, the seventh-best rate among all defenders and one-tenth of 1 percentage point behind the guy just ahead of him in first place.
Verse's raw totals aren't remarkable, -- he has only 4.5 sacks -- but he has 11 tackles for loss and 18 quarterback knockdowns and pops consistently on tape. He made a critical play on a third-and-1 against the Seahawks earlier this season in overtime to blow up a run for no gain, setting up a fourth-down stuff that eventually led to a Rams victory. He has formed an excellent one-two punch with former Florida State teammate Braden Fiske, whose rookie-class-leading 8.5 sacks also made him a contender here.
The only thing holding back Verse has been a decline over the second half of the season. He had a 19.3% pressure rate though Week 11 while averaging five pressures per game, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but that has fallen to 12.8% and an average of three pressures per contest over the past two months. Verse has still been very good, but that left the window open enough for a player who has been blistering hot in the second half.
1. Chop Robinson, Edge, Dolphins
Pick: No. 21
Over the first seven weeks of the season, Robinson was having a mostly anonymous campaign. It took a month for Miami to give its first-round pick a regular rotational role on defense, and across 69 pass-rush opportunities, he had no sacks and one quarterback knockdown.
Since then, he has been one of the league's best pass rushers. His 15.5% pressure rate over that stretch ranks second among defensive linemen, trailing only Myles Garrett. Expand it out to the full season and he has still been impressive. His 7.4% quick pressure rate -- which measures how often the rusher gets after the quarterback within 2.5 seconds -- ranks fourth in the league across the entire season among players with at least 250 pass-rush attempts. That's not among rookies; it's fourth among all pass rushers, trailing only Trey Hendrickson, Garrett and Micah Parsons.
Robinson finished the season with a modest total of six sacks, which isn't going to draw massive attention, but he has quietly become a star.
My pick after Week 4: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Texans
My pick after Week 9: Verse
Offensive Rookie of the Year
As you might suspect given the number of offensive players at the top of this draft, there are going to be players who miss out here who would typically find their way into the top three. Bo Nix pushed the Broncos to the playoffs with a nearly perfect performance against Kansas City's backups on defense Sunday, but owing to his inconsistency and play against tougher competition, he's not here. Joe Alt has been a Pro Bowl candidate at right tackle for the Chargers, while teammate Ladd McConkey made it over 1,100 receiving yards. Bucky Irving had 1,514 yards from scrimmage for the Bucs, more than Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson had in their rookie seasons a year earlier. They didn't make it, either.
There were four candidates in the top tier for three spots. I had to leave out one player, and it ended up being Giants wideout Malik Nabers, who just set the single-season record for receptions in the history of the franchise. He was brilliant early and late in the season, but he was quiet for stretches in midseason, had issues with poorly timed drops and sat out two games in October. That was just narrowly enough to drop him behind my third-place finisher.
3. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars
Pick: No. 23
Thomas was great all season, but he leveled up after Week 10. Over the final two months of the season, he ranked fourth in receiving yards (675) and sixth among all wideouts in yards per route run (2.9). He did virtually all of that with Mac Jones at quarterback in an offense in which nobody else looked good on a week-to-week basis.
It wasn't fun to watch the Jaguars at any point this season, but Thomas has been one of the few reasons to turn on Jacksonville's tape. His fluidity and smoothness as a route runner has immediately translated to the NFL and stands out on tape. He finished the season ranked third in receiving yards (1,282), and the list of rookies with 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in their first season is an exclusive club: Thomas, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. and Randy Moss.
2. Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders
Pick: No. 13
Thomas had a great season for a wide receiver. Bowers might have had the best rookie season by a tight end in league history. Again, playing with middling-or-worse quarterbacks, he has simply been uncoverable. He broke Mike Ditka's 63-year-old record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,194). How many records stretching back before the Super Bowl era are even left on the books?
After Nabers took the record for receptions by a rookie away early in the day Sunday, Bowers responded by reclaiming it in an afternoon loss to the Chargers, finishing with 112 receptions for the season. He already has an excellent sense for reading coverages and finding open space on scramble drills, and he has been a serious problem for defenses after the catch. Is he the next Travis Kelce? Well, he just had more catches as a rookie than Kelce had in any of the future Hall of Famer's pro seasons.
1. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
Pick: No. 2
As good as Thomas, Bowers and the rest of this rookie class were, it's impossible to pick anybody but Daniels. Though his pace slowed a bit after I had him as my MVP through the first quarter of the campaign, he has looked like an experienced pro for the entirety of his rookie season. He led dramatic victories over the Bengals, Bears and Eagles with winning drives.
Outside of taking sacks, Daniels did just about everything at an above-average or better level. He has been such a reliable passer on throws outside the numbers, stretching defenses who typically want young quarterbacks to take those throws, trusting they'll eventually get one for a pick-six. He has made Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown look like receiving threats this season, and he helped Terry McLaurin finally have the sort of season the star wideout's talent deserved.
Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and the Commanders did a thoughtful job of limiting Daniels' exposure to big hits with the quarterback run game, with Daniels typically stretched as a runner only between the tackles inside the red zone or in key moments. He was still threatening enough as a scrambler to generate 891 rushing yards and six scores on the ground; his 67.0 rushing EPA led all players, including Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
In all, Daniels finished fourth in the league in Total QBR, behind the big three quarterbacks of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. He's a special talent and a much-needed building block for the Commanders, who have their fans believing after a quarter-century of torture from the Daniel Snyder era.
My pick after Week 4: Daniels
My pick after Week 9: Daniels
Quick-hitter awards
Special Teams Player of the Year: Chris Boswell, K, Steelers
Boswell has comfortably been the league's best kicker all season, going 13-of-15 on 50-plus-yard field goals and missing only three of his 79 attempts while playing half of his games in Pittsburgh, a difficult place to kick.
Offensive Lineman of the Year: Tristan Wirfs, LT, Buccaneers
Wirfs led all tackles in pass block win rate while giving up 1.5 sacks and five knockdowns on the blind side, per NFL Next Gen Stats. One of those sacks came on a play extended by Baker Mayfield. He was also left to block one-on-one more than any other left tackle in football.
Most Underrated Player: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Patriots
Languishing on one of the league's worst teams and with no pass rush to help him, Gonzalez has spent as much time in man-to-man coverage against top receivers as any other cornerback. He has held wideouts to a 71.1 passer rating in coverage and given up only two touchdowns. He was an easy All-Pro selection for me, though he was overlooked for the AFC Pro Bowl roster.
Most Valuable Coordinator: Brian Flores, DC, Vikings
How many superstars are there on the Vikings' defense? The Vikings are the league's oldest defense and look as if they fly around in their mid-20s. Flores has revitalized Harrison Smith and Stephon Gilmore, developed Cam Bynum and Josh Metellus into valuable starters, and repeatedly coaxed more out of free agent additions than their previous teams had. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman have all had Pro Bowl-caliber seasons in Minnesota.
Worst In-Game Decision of the Year: Antonio Pierce punting on fourth-and-1 in Week 1 against the Chargers
Pierce's decision to punt on Los Angeles' side of the field down six points in the fourth quarter was nearly unprecedented in modern football. Various win probability models estimate the decision cost the Raiders between five and nine points of win probability. The Chargers rewarded Pierce for his decision by immediately marching down the field for a touchdown to put away the game.
Offensive Concept of the Year: The "escort" blocker
Like a lead blocker for plays heading to the flat, teams found more ways to use what's known as an "escort" blocker to create different looks for defenses. One common example was zone read escort, in which offenses would pull a tight end or fullback out into the alley and run a quarterback such as Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson behind him. Several teams threw swing passes to their running backs as checkdowns with a lead blocker serving as a quasi-screen.
The escort blocker wasn't new to the NFL, but we saw more of it around the league in 2024.
Most Unnecessary Panic of the Year: Hip-drop tackling and offenses being broken (tie)
Former and current players were in a panic during the offseason about the league banning hip-drop tackles, but we didn't see a single flag for a hip-drop hit until December, and there were only a handful of fines for illegal tackles all season. There were more incorrect complaints about hip-drop tackles that were actually legal than actual hip-drop tackles.
Not only did defenses manage to continue finding ways to tackle, but early in the season they seemed to have sent offenses back to the stone age. Scoring was way down over the first two weeks, leading to a debate about the scourges of poor offensive line coaching and two-high defensive shells.
Even without congressional intervention, offenses somehow found a solution afterward. From Week 3 through Week 17, teams averaged 23.1 points, more than they averaged through those same weeks over the previous five seasons (22.8). Quarterbacks collectively had two of their best weeks since 2000 in Week 8 and Week 11.
Catch of the Year: Garrett Wilson's one-handed grab against the Texans in Week 9.
There weren't many highlights for the Jets this season, but Wilson is right up there with Justin Jefferson as the best spectacular-catch receiver in football.
Garrett Wilson's CATCH OF THE YEAR from the field 👀 pic.twitter.com/lvVYZhyJHY
— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2024
Pass of the Year: Jayden Daniels' blitz-beater to Terry McLaurin for a touchdown against the Bengals.
I could just as easily have picked Daniels' Hail Mary to win the game against the Bears, but there's a certain level of luck and randomness to completing a Hail Mary. This throw -- third down, fourth quarter, free rusher, a defense sitting at the sticks expecting a rookie to try to make the safe throw -- was the sort of brave, decisive, accurate pass Daniels would repeatedly find ways to make in key situations this season.
Run of the Year: Tank Bigsby's 65-yard touchdown against the Colts.
It seems sacrilegious to not pick a run by Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, and they each have a number of long scores that could qualify. (Remember that Barkley's reverse hurdle play against the Jaguars was actually on a swing pass.) But let's give credit where it's due: After taking a pitch on this play, Bigsby cut back to take two defenders out of the play, shook off two arm tackle attempts, stiff-armed a safety into the turf and accelerated upfield for a long touchdown. It was a run Barkley and Henry would be proud to have on their highlight reels.
TANK BIGSBY STIFF ARMS HIS WAY TO A 65-YARD TD.
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/oVugPI0X5s
Defensive Player of the Year
If you're sick of me saying there are too many contenders for all of these awards to reduce them to a top three, here's where things get narrower. The races for Defensive Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year are much simpler.
On the defensive side, I had five candidates for three spots. The first left out is safety Xavier McKinney, who was excellent in his debut season with Green Bay. He just wasn't as consistently impactful as the other players ahead of him, in part because that's difficult to do from safety.
Meanwhile, Myles Garrett was dominant at his best as always, but the future Hall of Famer failed to record a sack in nine games and was overshadowed by a player in his own division. That player isn't T.J. Watt, for whom I laid out my reservations in my All-Pro column. Watt is still a great player, but he hasn't been as consistently disruptive as in previous seasons.
3. Zack Baun, LB, Eagles
What an outstanding season for Baun, who was signed on a one-year deal in the offseason. Even before taking off the meaningless Week 18 game against the Giants, he simply blew away the competition at his new position. As the nearest defender in coverage, he generated 25.7 EPA for the Eagles, more than double what any other linebacker with 200 or more coverage snaps managed for his team this season.
Baun might have been even better as a tackler. He recorded a league-best 14.6% of Philadelphia's tackles, all while running an above-average missed tackle rate of 5%. He had a few splash plays -- 3.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss -- and he ranked second in the league with 88 stuffs, which are tackles that generate negative EPA for the opposing offense. He has been every bit as good on defense as Saquon Barkley has been on offense for the Eagles.
2. Pat Surtain II, CB, Broncos
In an era in which it's harder to be a shutdown cornerback, Surtain's 2024 season checks every box. Inhibiting targets? He was thrown at on only 10.9% of his snaps as the nearest defender in coverage, the second-lowest rate in the league for corners with at least 250 snaps. Holding up in man? He was in man-to-man coverage nearly 41% of the time, the 12th-highest rate among those corners. Stop teams when they do throw? His 19.3 EPA generated on defense was the fourth-best mark as the nearest defender in coverage, and he picked off four passes, taking one to the house. Oh, and Surtain went all season without a missed tackle.
The only holes in Surtain's résumé? He missed all but one snap over a two-game span after sustaining a concussion against the Chargers. More problematically, he committed 12 penalties for 125 yards, with the latter figure ranking as the fifth-highest total for any defender. Those penalties don't erase all of the excellent things he has done, but they are first downs for the opposing offense. I'd have Surtain No. 1 if he had, say, only three penalties this season. Instead, he opened the door for a player who did everything he could in Week 18.
1. Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals
With Cincinnati's season on the line, Hendrickson dominated the Steelers on Saturday night. He racked up 3.5 sacks and five knockdowns of Russell Wilson, helping shut down the Pittsburgh offense for most of the day in what would eventually be a 19-17 Bengals victory.
Hendrickson leads the league in virtually every pass-rushing category. He's tops in cumulative figures, such as sacks (17.5, 3.5 more than anyone else), pressures (92) and quick pressures (46, six more than No. 2 Garrett). He's No. 1 in the rate stats, too: Among defenders with at least 300 pass rushes, he leads the league in sack rate (3.6%) and quick pressure rate (9.5%) and ranks third in general pressure rate (18.9%), where he's just behind Parsons and Danielle Hunter.
One number, though, might be most telling. For most of the season, Hendrickson had more sacks than the rest of his teammates combined. He finished the season nearly matching his teammates, with his 17.5 coming up one short of everyone else's combined total of 18.5. The only reason they might have caught up is because of what Hendrickson created for his fellow Bengals.
ESPN has a metric called sacks created, which attempts to measure both the sacks produced by a player winning one-on-one battles and the sacks created for other players by producing the initial pressure on a quarterback. Hendrickson created 26 sacks this season. That's nearly double every other player; Hunter ranked second with 14.5. This metric dates to 2017, and no other player had created 20 sacks in a single season before Hendrickson reached 26 this season. I know the Bengals struggled on defense, but they would have been utterly hopeless without Hendrickson.
My pick after Week 4: Fred Warner, LB, 49ers
My pick after Week 9: Hendrickson
Offensive Player of the Year
As always, I'm not sure how we're supposed to hand out Offensive Player of the Year in a universe where the MVP always goes to a quarterback. If he's good enough to win Most Valuable Player, that guy should also be the best offensive player in the league. This award should be redundant.
Instead, I keep quarterbacks out of the Offensive Player of the Year discussion and limit it instead to running backs, receivers and (theoretically, at least) offensive linemen. Those guys can compete in the MVP conversation if they have great years, but I want to make sure they get their flowers without being overshadowed by quarterbacks.
Unfortunately for me, this is going to involve one painful cut to make it down to a three-man short list. There are two running backs and two wide receivers who have separated from the pack at their respective positions, and four is one more than three. The top two running backs have been more dominant, relative to their competition, than the wide receivers, and between the two wideouts, Justin Jefferson isn't the one who's winning the triple crown. The Vikings star finishes fourth.
3. Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Man, I would be mad if I racked up 1,921 rushing yards and finished third in the Offensive Player of the Year voting. Henry has been incredible this season. He has a league-high 94 first downs on the ground, nine more than any other back, and an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns. Having Lamar Jackson in the same backfield has unquestionably helped him at the line of scrimmage, but he also has produced several big plays after making his cut or picking his lane, too.
The disconnect between how people talk about Henry and what he actually does on the field still applies. Most of the conversation surrounding him is usually about his size and how he can run over defenders, but while that occasionally happens, it's not what makes him special or wildly productive. Henry's superpower is his acceleration at 6-foot-2, 247 pounds, his ability to consistently make deep defenders take overly aggressive angles before outrunning those players to and past that spot. Even now, at 31, he's still so much faster than defenders think in the open field.
Those big plays have been part of Henry's arsenal for years, but when the Titans began to struggle on offense as their line fell apart, he didn't have the space to get in the open field. This season, he has had those chances far more often. He has been a far more consistent back. Henry had 14 games this season with at least 10 carries when he averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry. That's the most for any back in any season in NFL history. The three players with 13: Jamaal Charles in 2010, Adrian Peterson in 2012 and the guy I have in first place for this award this year.
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
If Henry might be mad, Chase should be furious. How can a player win the receiving triple crown and not be the Offensive Player of the Year, let alone a viable MVP candidate? I suppose there are some people who might knock Chase down a peg as a potential award candidate because of his team's 9-8 record, but given that I just handed Hendrickson Defensive Player of the Year, I'm obviously not doing that with the Bengals.
There weren't many holes in Chase's season. He dropped seven passes, including a would-be touchdown against the Broncos in Week 17, but when a wideout has a 72.2% catch rate across 176 targets, a few drops aren't going to ruin his season. Even with the drops, Chase's catch rate was 6.6% over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Burrow implicitly trusts Chase on 50-50 balls, and with good reason.
And then, of course, Chase led the league in yards after catch over expectation (YACOE) with 294, 62 more than CeeDee Lamb and 130 more than any other player. It's the third-most recorded in any one season in the Next Gen Stats era, trailing only 2021 seasons by Deebo Samuel and Chase himself. He was Mr. Big Play this season and virtually uncoverable one-on-one for the vast majority of it.
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
Chase just wasn't Barkley, who had one of the great running back seasons in league history. For all the chatter about how Barkley had a 17th game to approach Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, the Eagles star ended up sitting out the final game and didn't play a single snap after topping the 2,000-yard mark in Week 17. He got there on his 345th carry.
Henry needed 370 carries to get over 2,000 yards in 2020. Adrian Peterson got there in 331 carries in his MVP season in 2012, but Chris Johnson, Jamal Lewis and Terrell Davis all needed more than those 345 carries to get over the 2K mark during their legendary seasons. Had the Eagles wanted to push Barkley in the fourth quarter last week and into this game in Week 18, he almost surely would have topped Dickerson's record in fewer carries than the former Rams standout (379).
Barkley's ability to set up and hit home runs on the ground was historic. He had six gains of 50 or more yards as a runner, the most since he matched that mark in 2018. The only back with more 50-plus-yard runs in a single season since 2000 was Peterson in 2012. Barkley gained 389 rushing yards on those six carries and ran untouched for 388 of those yards, which is a testament to his offensive line and to his ability to break down defenders and get into the open field.
Unlike Peterson, Barkley won't win MVP. A player needs to carry a team into the postseason as a running back to seriously compete for that award, and Barkley's Eagles were too good around him for him to qualify. His drop against the Falcons ended up costing the Eagles a game in September, and there were mistakes against the Browns and Jaguars that ended up opening those games against bad opponents into closer contests. I'd love to have had a real debate on our hands had Barkley set the record, but without that on the books, he will instead have to settle for being the league's most explosive and impressive non-quarterback this season.
My pick after Week 4: Henry
My pick after Week 9: Henry
Most Valuable Player
We have a lot to talk about, so let's quickly narrow down the race. I've seen fans make MVP cases for Barkley, Burrow, Daniels, Jared Goff and even Patrick Mahomes late in the 2024 season. Those guys have all had compelling seasons in their own right, but they don't have strong enough cases to compete with the two guys you know are coming at the top of this list. Let's start with third place.
3. Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
This award is a couple of two-man races, one for third, the other for first. Barkley is up against Burrow for third place on my ballot, and I lean ever so narrowly toward the star back. You might find that to be an easy case based on the records of the two teams, but again, I'm not keeping Bengals out of these discussions, even though they ended up missing the playoffs.
Burrow plays a more significant position and led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns, but he also had a few too many negative plays; the Bengals star threw nine interceptions, lost five fumbles and took sacks on 6.7% of his dropbacks, which is just below league average. Some of those issues fall on the offensive line, but his propensity for extending plays and trying to create out of structure when his first look isn't there also creates some of those sacks, with Keeanu Benton's sack late in the fourth quarter on Saturday as a good example.
Barkley has been brilliant, and while he doesn't bear as much of a burden for the offense as a quarterback like Burrow, he has been the focal point of Philadelphia's offense for most of the season. The Eagles averaged 165.4 passing yards per game over his final eight contests, and it wasn't as if Eagles fans were clamoring for more Jalen Hurts as a passer over that stretch. This was the Barkley show, and his season will linger in the memory a lot longer than Burrow's, even if Burrow deserved a better set of teammates beyond Chase and Hendrickson.
That leaves us with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Neither clearly won the race with his performance in Week 18. Facing a hopeless Browns team with a chance to set the single-season passer rating record, Jackson completed 50% of his passes, although he had two touchdowns and racked up 280 yards between the ground and air in a comfortable victory. Allen was one of many players who spent Week 18 trying to achieve a statistical goal; the Bills quarterback extended his games started streak by stepping onto the field for the opening snap and handing the ball off to James Cook before quickly exiting what would eventually be a loss to the Patriots.
I won't rank them now to avoid spoilers, but let's run through a quick series of comparisons to break down who should be MVP:
Who was the more productive passer? Jackson. In what might have seemed shocking to people who saw Jackson as a run-first quarterback as recently as two years ago, he was the league's best pure passer this season. Removing scrambles and sacks from the equation and focusing on what each player did as a passer, his 86.5 QBR was the best in football. It was nearly nine points higher than Allen's 77.7, which ranked sixth. Allen's elite sack rate is one of his best traits, but even when including that in the equation, Allen jumps up to only third in QBR, trailing Jackson and Burrow.
Across the board, Jackson was more efficient than Allen. He completed a higher percentage of his passes (66.7% for Jackson to 63.6% for Allen). Both were right about where they should have expected to come in by completion percentage over expectation. Nearly 42% of Jackson's passes turned into first downs, the second-best rate. Allen's 35.8% first-down rate ranked 12th, just behind Kirk Cousins. Jackson also threw a higher percentage of his passes on target than Allen, while the two had virtually identical precise pass rates.
Jackson's passes were also more productive. The average Jackson pass produced 8.8 yards, which led the league. Allen's average pass gained 7.9 yards, which ranked ninth, again trailing Cousins. Adding in sack yardage helps Allen, who barely took sacks, but it wasn't enough to make up the difference. Considering yards per dropback on plays that ended with pass attempts or sacks, Jackson's 8.2 yards per play still led the league. Allen was fifth, at 7.4. If you prefer EPA per dropback, again, Jackson led the league with 0.17 EPA per snap on those plays, with Allen at third (0.14).
Jackson's 41-to-4 touchdown-to-interception mark was the best mark we've seen since Aaron Rodgers posted a 25-to-2 in 2018. Allen didn't exactly do a bad job here, but he threw 28 touchdown passes against six picks. That should be a clear point for Jackson, but I'll get to why that's misleading in a minute.
Who was the better passer in obvious passing situations? Jackson. He led the league in Total QBR operating out of the pocket, with his 75.1 mark more than three points ahead of anybody else. Allen ranked third by the same metric, averaging a full yard less than Jackson per attempt while throwing nine fewer touchdown passes and one more interception across 12 more pass attempts from inside the pocket.
Switching it to situations in which the opposing team was expecting pass, again, Jackson reigns. NFL Next Gen Stats has a model that projects the probability of a pass on any given play before the snap. He dropped back 259 times under those situations, while Allen did so on 270 occasions.
Again, Jackson was better in those spots. He led the league with a 116.0 passer rating and 0.29 EPA per play in obvious passing situations, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 15 touchdown passes against just two picks. Allen wasn't far behind, but his 0.20 EPA per play in those same moments ranked third. Their sack rates in those spots were virtually identical, with Allen slightly better than Jackson, but Jackson made up for it by being more productive as a passer.
Who did more as a runner? Allen. Jackson supporters might consider this a point of obvious strength, given that the Ravens star led all quarterbacks with 915 rush yards. Allen managed only 531 yards, and while that came on 37 fewer carries, Jackson was comfortably more productive in terms of gaining yards than Allen.
Yards aren't everything, though. Allen was a threat near the goal line, scoring 12 touchdowns. Some of those were tush pushes, which we seem to count as something less than a typical rushing score, but Allen had six touchdowns of more than 1 yard and was a threat to score as a scrambler and on other designed quarterback runs near the goal line. Jackson scored only four times as a runner.
Allen's runs were typically more successful, too. Fifty-one of his 102 carries (50%) produced first downs, and he generated a 65.7% success rate as a runner, the best mark for any quarterback. Jackson turned just 48 of his 139 rush attempts (34.5%) into first downs, and although he led all rushers in rush yards over expectation, he was successful on just under 50% of his carries.
Jackson also lost significant value on fumbles, leading all quarterbacks with six total, four lost on run plays. Quarterbacks can sometimes be blamed for fumbles on things that are out of their control, but those four fumbles lost were on Jackson. Two were lost when he was a ball carrier; a third was a play in which he bobbled a pistol snap; and the fourth was on a poorly thrown backward swing pass against the Buccaneers. He added a fifth on a strip sack by Chris Jones in the season opener.
Allen lost only two fumbles all season, one of which came on an ill-advised trick play against the Ravens. Factor in the touchdowns on the ground and the turnovers from fumbles and the touchdown-to-turnover ratio is actually identical. Jackson ends up with 45 touchdowns against nine turnovers, while Allen has 40 scores against eight giveaways.
And when factoring in all of those differences on the ground, Allen makes up all of the gap between the two in the run game. Jackson generated 28.9 more EPA than Allen as a passer this season, but per NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen racked up 49.9 more EPA as a runner than the defending MVP. There's more to an MVP race than simply adding up EPA, which is where a stat like QBR can be helpful, but that's a fascinating scenario versus expectations heading into 2024 for both of these players.
Who faced a more difficult situation? About the same. It depends on what you consider to be the most important factor. Bills fans are probably suggesting Buffalo didn't have anybody the caliber of Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry or Mark Andrews after the team traded away Stefon Diggs last offseason. Allen responded by throwing touchdown passes to 13 different receivers this season, which tied an NFL record.
Of course, Bills fans were also understandably upset when James Cook didn't make it to the Pro Bowl after a spectacular season. Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown might have been the best one-two punch at tackle in the AFC. Nobody on the Bills made it to 1,000 yards or really came close, but they saw flashes of impressive play from rookie Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir broke out and they traded for Amari Cooper in midseason, although Cooper missed time with various injuries.
The Ravens, meanwhile, were undergoing significant turnover up front, with three new starters along their offensive line in Patrick Mekari, Daniel Faalele and second-round pick Roger Rosengarten. It took those guys a few weeks to look as if they belonged, which also coincided with Baltimore's roughest stretch of play. Andrews looked as if he was fading out of the lineup early in the season, although he came on later by scoring touchdowns in each of the team's final six games. And while the Bills added Cooper and didn't get what they hoped, the Ravens got even less out of Diontae Johnson, who caught just one pass in a Baltimore uniform. The Ravens fielded a better receiving corps than the Bills, but Baltimore's offensive line was more of a work in progress. And both teams had great backs.
Neither quarterback played a particularly difficult schedule. Jackson's QBR was adjusted up by 0.5 points for the quality of opposition defense he faced in 2023, while Allen's was boosted by 0.2 points. Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Ravens faced the 18th-hardest slate of opposing defenses, while the Bills dealt with the 20th-toughest.
Who played better against great defenses? Probably Jackson. This one comes only by sheer volume. Facing the league's top eight defenses by EPA per play, Allen actually led the league in QBR at 85.6, but he also played only two games against those teams. Allen went just 9-of-30 for 131 yards and a touchdown in a Week 5 loss to the Texans, but QBR liked that he took only one sack and was effective as a runner. He then torched the Lions for 430 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in December.
Jackson's 77.9 QBR against those defenses ranked third in the league, but he faced those great defenses six times in 2024, with two games against the Steelers and one-offs against the Broncos, Chargers, Eagles and Texans. He was mostly unfazed by the competition, as he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and threw 15 touchdown passes against two picks against the best defenses. He was nearly perfect against the Broncos and Texans, going a combined 26-of-34 for 448 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. The Steelers gave Jackson more trouble, but he had three scores in what would eventually be the division-deciding win over Pittsburgh in December.
Allen's QBR is better, but Jackson was only slightly behind and had to beat great defenses way more often.
Who did more in matchups against the league's other top quarterbacks? It depends. I'm not sure this should really matter, since quarterbacks don't go one-on-one against other quarterbacks, but I know it will come up as part of the conversation, so I might as well address it.
Allen did something no other quarterback did in 2024: He beat Mahomes, with the Bills claiming their fourth consecutive regular-season victory over the Chiefs. Allen drove a stake into Kansas City's undefeated season, scrambling in for a 19-yard score on fourth down to put the game away in the final minutes. Allen then won a 48-42 shootout with Goff.
On the other hand, Jackson's Ravens narrowly lost to the Chiefs in the opener, albeit on a day in which the reigning MVP amassed 273 yards through the air and 122 more on the ground and came within an Isaiah Likely fingernail of pushing the game to a 2-point try. He was phenomenal in a pair of dramatic, high-scoring victories over Burrow's Bengals and had no trouble putting away last year's MVP runner-up, Dak Prescott, in an early-season win over the Cowboys.
There's also the game between these two teams in September, which turned out to be a relatively easy 35-10 win for Jackson & Co. Allen went 16-of-29 for 180 yards, took three sacks, lost a fumble and failed to score a touchdown for the only time in 2024.
The Ravens were mostly a Henry show that day, but Jackson was extremely efficient against an oft-frustrating Bills defense. He went 13-of-18 for 156 yards and two touchdowns while adding six carries for 54 yards and another score on the ground. The only blemish on his day was losing a fumble. I don't value quarterback-versus-quarterback performance very much, but Jackson had more wins over quarterbacks in the MVP picture, including one over his direct rival.
2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
In the end, although I was leaning Allen as recently as last week, I have to go with Jackson. Allen was the more consistent quarterback on a snap-to-snap basis by virtue of his incredibly high floor; when a player doesn't ever take sacks, rarely turns the ball over, and can extend plays and pick up meaningful yardage with his legs, it's almost impossible to stop him. This wasn't the most spectacular version of Allen we've ever seen, but it was a devastatingly efficient performance.
Jackson was just a tiny bit better. He was comfortably more productive as a passer throughout the season, and although Allen had his spectacular moments, Jackson might have had more. He played more often against stiff competition and did so at an extremely high level. And although he had better playmakers than his Bills counterpart, he didn't have the same caliber of offensive linemen.
I wouldn't argue if you prefer Allen. This is a very tight race. I would hardly be surprised if Allen won the award, given the fatigue voters typically show for defending champs and the fact Allen had sewn up a division title for his team by mid-November. With Allen sitting out in Week 18, though, Jackson did just enough against the Browns to convince me he should become a three-time MVP.
My pick after Week 4: Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
My pick after Week 9: Jackson