<
        >
          EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
          Get ESPN+

          NFL playoffs: Biggest weakness for seven Super Bowl contenders

          • Bill Barnwell, ESPN Staff WriterDec 23, 2024, 08:55 AM ET
            Close
              Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and so much more.

              He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here: @billbarnwell.
            Follow on X

          There are no flawless teams in the 2024 NFL season. Sure, the Chiefs are 14-1, but they have a grand total of two wins of more than 10 points and have called upon multiple miracles in closing out games. The Lions are 13-2 after their win over the Bears on Sunday, but they've been ravaged by injuries. The 13-2 Vikings have a quarterback with a limited track record of success, the 12-3 Eagles feel like their own worst enemy at times, and the 12-3 Bills appear to be set on making fantasy football dreams come true over the final three weeks.

          I'd argue that we never have flawless teams in the NFL. It's just too difficult to build a perfect team in the salary cap era, and even if a general manager did so, the war of attrition over a 17-game season invariably is going to open up roster holes. Sometimes, those holes and those problems aren't revealed until the worst possible moment, as the 49ers did when they had to rely on backups Oren Burks and Spencer Burford because of injuries suffered by starters during Super Bowl LVIII.

          Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'

          Other flaws are more apparent before the playoffs even begin. Let's identify those concerns for every top Super Bowl contender. I've checked out ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), gone through the seven teams with chances north of 3% of winning the Super Bowl and identified their biggest flaw heading into the final two weeks of the season and the postseason.

          I've also picked a team that, at least on paper, should be able to exploit each team's Achilles' heel. Being a bad matchup in one facet of the game doesn't mean this potential opponent should be favored if the two teams play in January, but all things being considered, it's an opponent each of these teams would probably rather avoid if they can.

          I'll start with the defending champs and the AFC and move on from there to the NFC.

          Jump to a contender:
          Bills | Chiefs | Eagles
          Lions | Packers | Ravens | Vikings

          AFC

          Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)

          Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN's FPI: 12.6%
          Most likely seed: No. 1

          Achilles' heel: Deep passing attack