If I'm going to be in the prediction business, I ought to check in on my results. Back in the preseason, I wrote a bold prediction for each of the 32 teams as part of our season preview. These ranged from predictions on team and player performance to awards to potential trades.
A lot has changed just five weeks into the season, though, and there are lessons all over the place. The entire country thinks way differently about, say, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels than we did before the season. On the other end, few people saw the Browns starting 1-4.
That means the trajectory of my predictions has taken turns. A few are in great shape, others look utterly impossible to hit and many are in the middle, with their probabilities shifting by the week. Let's examine where each prediction stands and assess whether they are on target, still have a chance or should be thrown out and replaced.
I'll group these in three tiers -- on target, still a chance and starting over -- with teams in alphabetical order within each tier. On the last tier, I made totally new bold predictions:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
On target
Arizona Cardinals
Original prediction: QB Kyler Murray will finish in the top 10 in QBR.
Why it's on target: Murray ranks sixth so far (66.4), which is about as good as he or this prediction could have hoped for at this stage. He's thriving in coordinator Drew Petzing's offense, generating the third-most expected points added (EPA) in the league while throwing on the run. He also has generated the sixth-most EPA when using play-action.
Atlanta Falcons
Original prediction: TE Kyle Pitts will fail to reach 700 receiving yards.
Why it's on target: Pitts is actually not far off the pace -- he's on track for 656 yards -- but I would happily bet against him again. He is the lowest-ranked tight end or wide receiver in terms of open score (20) and overall score (29) in ESPN's Receiver Scores. That doesn't lend itself to much production.
Buffalo Bills
Original prediction: WR Khalil Shakir will have at least 1,000 receiving yards.
Why it's on target: Technically, we're a little shy, but we're on target in spirit. Shakir has 230 receiving yards through four games -- he missed Week 5 with an ankle injury -- which puts him at 57.5 receiving yards per game. That means he's on pace for 920 yards assuming he doesn't miss any more games. Shakir has managed an impressive 2.9 yards per route run this season, which is the seventh-best mark among wide receivers who have run at least 15 routes per game.
Cincinnati Bengals
Original prediction: The Bengals will miss the playoffs.
Why it's on target: Sitting at 1-4, the Bengals have only a 33% chance to reach the playoffs now, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), half of their preseason chances. Oddly, I might be more bullish than general sentiment on Cincinnati now. The offense is on fire -- it ranks third in EPA per play and Joe Burrow is second in QBR, which would be the best ranking of his career. The defense has let the Bengals down, as it ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play, but defenses are a lot easier to fix in-season than offenses. Still, this poor start is difficult for any team to overcome.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Original prediction: CB Tyson Campbell will have a bounce-back season, playing more like his 2022 campaign.
Why it's on target: Well, it's a good thing I chose a rate stat here. Campbell injured his hamstring in Week 1, so this one is very much to be determined. He was off to a great start, however, with zero receptions allowed on the 29 coverage snaps he has played, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Campbell is back practicing and should return to the field soon.
New York Giants
Original prediction: The Giants will finish in the top 20 in pass block win rate.
Why it's on target: Through five weeks, their offensive line ranks 19th (57.8%). It could happen! Free agent acquisition Jon Runyan has been an asset in pass protection, as his 95% pass block win rate ranks 13th among all guards.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Original prediction: OLB Nick Herbig will rack up at least seven sacks.
Why it's on target: This one is health-dependent. Herbig was having a great game Sunday night against the Cowboys before he left with a hamstring injury. He has 2.5 sacks on this season and has a stellar 25% pass rush win rate for the season. If he's healthy -- and especially if Alex Highsmith (groin) misses more time, leading to more snaps for Herbig -- I feel good about the chances of hitting on this one.
San Francisco 49ers
Original prediction: The 49ers will finish outside the top four in EPA per play, in part due to their offensive line.
Why it's on target: San Francisco is on track in terms of EPA per play, as it ranks eighth in the category through five weeks. Surprisingly, pass protection has not been part of the issue -- the 49ers rank sixth in pass block win rate (49.5%), with All-Pro tackle Trent Williams, rookie guard Dominick Puni and center Jake Brendel all in the top 15 at their positions. Run blocking has been an issue, though, as they rank last in run block win rate (66%). That has translated to ranking 21st in EPA per designed carry, despite strong play from running back Jordan Mason, who has plus-159 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Seattle Seahawks
Original prediction: CB Riq Woolen will be named a Pro Bowler and/or at least a second-team All-Pro.
Why it's on target: Woolen has put up strong numbers. He has allowed five receptions for 41 yards on 12 targets over 130 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats, adding an interception. His 0.3 yards per coverage snap allowed is the third-best among outside corners, and he has just one illegal contact penalty against him.
This is still an uphill battle because it's simply hard to be good enough to earn one of those award spots and because his early-season numbers are likely inflated by the weak slate of opposing offenses the Seahawks have faced. Still, Woolen has done what he needed to do through five weeks, though he has an ankle injury that will keep him out of Week 6.
Still a chance ...
Baltimore Ravens
Original prediction: Keaton Mitchell will be a top-10 fantasy RB in terms of points per game when he returns from a torn ACL he suffered late last season.
Why there's still a chance: Coach John Harbaugh recently said Mitchell is "right on schedule. The schedule was to be back this season." So, it still appears we'll see him in 2024. His path to playing time looks a little tougher now than at the beginning of the campaign because Derrick Henry is playing so well and Justice Hill has been a strong receiving back, but it's a long season. I still like Mitchell as a speed complement to Henry in the Baltimore offense.
Chicago Bears
Original prediction: QB Caleb Williams will have at least a 10% sack rate through Week 6, despite the Bears ranking in the top half of pass block win rate.
Why there's still a chance: Williams has an 8.6% sack rate through Week 5, so with a rough game against the Jaguars on Sunday, it could happen. Until recently I would have thought the offensive line part of this prediction would have been where it was most likely to fail. Through Week 3, the Bears ranked 26th in pass block win rate. After back-to-back strong performances, however, that unit is all the way up to 12th.
Cleveland Browns
Original prediction: Jerry Jeudy will finish as a top 30 fantasy WR.
Why there's still a chance: Jeudy, who was being drafted before the season closer to WR50, currently ranks as WR45. That puts him in range to reach the top 30 if he stays healthy and the Browns offense can pick up its passing efficiency. As long as the team sticks with struggling QB Deshaun Watson, though, that seems unlikely.
Denver Broncos
Original prediction: WR Courtland Sutton will reach 1,000 receiving yards.
Why there's still a chance: During this exercise a year ago, I pivoted off my prediction that 49ers TE George Kittle would reach 1,000 receiving yards after he'd managed just 138 through four weeks. But then he actually got there. Sutton is not on a 1,000-yard pace, but he's far better than Kittle was, with 224 yards in five games, putting him on pace for 762. I learned my lesson, and I'm not throwing this one out quite yet. If QB Bo Nix gets more comfortable as the season progresses, it could happen.
Detroit Lions
Original prediction: G Kevin Zeitler will finish in the top five in pass block win rate among guards.
Why there's still a chance: Zeitler ranks 22nd among guards so far (94%). He's in range to make the jump. In fact, if just two of his pass block losses this season had been wins, he would be in a tie for fifth.
Green Bay Packers
Original prediction: MarShawn Lloyd will take over the No. 1 RB role by the end of the season.
Why there's still a chance: This prediction had a tough start. Lloyd had just six carries before he landed on injured reserve due to an ankle injury, while Josh Jacobs has run for 402 yards in five games and has averaged 0.7 rush yards over expectation per carry. Emanuel Wilson has been a solid backup, too. Of course, we haven't really seen Lloyd, so I'm not ruling it out completely.
Houston Texans
Original prediction: CB Derek Stingley Jr. will make the Pro Bowl.
Why there's still a chance: Stingley is playing well, with a slightly negative EPA allowed (better than average) and 1.4 yards per coverage snap allowed (slightly worse than average), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Given that he was a top-three pick in 2022 and thus is a bigger name, a strong finish to the season could give him a Pro Bowl nod.
Las Vegas Raiders
Original prediction: The Raiders will win five or fewer games.
Why there's still a chance: FPI projects the Raiders to win 6.8, but this is not a great team. Las Vegas is ranked 26th by FPI, and it benched QB Gardner Minshew in favor of Aidan O'Connell. Plus, the Raiders are likely going to trade away Davante Adams soon. It would not be surprising if they spiraled to 12 losses.
Los Angeles Rams
Original prediction: TE Colby Parkinson will score eight-plus touchdowns.
Why there's still a chance: Considering Parkinson has zero TDs, this one is certainly a long shot. But this prediction was based on the premise he would play a ton and that part has at least been true. He has been on the field for 87% of the Rams' offensive snaps. It could still happen. Could.
Minnesota Vikings
Original prediction: Sam Darnold will finish the season outside the top 20 in QBR.
Why there's still a chance: As good as the Vikings have been in their undefeated start to the season, Darnold still only ranks 14th (58.7). Don't get me wrong, he has been much more productive than I expected, and I imagine this bold prediction will flop. But 14th through five weeks doesn't put him clear of 21st at the end of the season, especially given his history.
New England Patriots
Original prediction: Drake Maye will be a top 14 fantasy QB in terms of points per game played.
Why there's still a chance: Will you grant me an audible to pivot this to "points per start" so his one relief appearance doesn't cost him? This remains completely up in the air since we have only seen eight pass attempts from Maye. We're about to know more because Maye is set to start Sunday against the Texans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original prediction: The Bucs will win six or fewer games.
Why there's still a chance: This could probably be thrown out, but stranger things have happened. I'm bearish on this prediction after the Buccaneers started the season 3-2, which really could have been 4-1 if not for blowing a win last Thursday to the Falcons. They have looked decent on both sides of the ball; FPI has them at 15th overall. Tampa Bay has a tough stretch coming up at the Saints, vs. the Ravens, vs. the Falcons, at the Chiefs and vs. the 49ers.
Tennessee Titans
Original Prediction: RB Tony Pollard will have at least 75 rushing yards over expectation.
Why there's still a chance: He has 10 through Week 5, so at least he's in positive territory. He also has gotten more work than Tyjae Spears. Pollard will have to pick up the pace to get to 75, but one long breakaway run can make that happen quickly. This one is certainly still in the cards.
Throw it out, start over
Carolina Panthers
Original prediction: Bryce Young will finish in the top 18 in QBR.
Why we're throwing it out: Young was awful in his two starts to begin the season, accumulating a QBR of 9 before he was benched. That ranked last in the league.
New bold prediction: The Panthers will trade OLB Jadeveon Clowney before the deadline. Clowney has only one sack, but he has put up a strong 21% pass rush win rate, which is in line with most of his career. As a 31-year-old defender on a team not in playoff contention, though, he's of no use to the Panthers. They're better off flipping him to a team that could use him for wins this season (and potentially in 2025, since he has another year left on his deal).
Dallas Cowboys
Original prediction: OLB Micah Parsons will break the single-season sack record (22.5).
Why we're throwing it out: Parsons has just one sack this season, missed Week 5 due to an ankle sprain and has a 19% pass rush win rate at edge rusher, ranking 19th out of 50 qualifiers at the position. It's not happening, at least not in 2024.
New bold prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin will end the season with at least 500 receiving yards. Turpin doesn't play much -- he has run only 45 routes -- but he has an impressive 2.3 yards per route. And with Brandin Cooks (knee) on injured reserve and looking like a player in decline -- Cooks has only a 37 open score in our Receiver Scores -- the door is open for Turpin to make an impact.
Indianapolis Colts
Original prediction: DEs Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu will combine for 20-plus sacks.
Why we're throwing it out: They have just 1.5 sacks between them. I'd leave room for improvement if they were closer, but this start is way too slow.
New bold prediction: WR Josh Downs will have 1,000 receiving yards, despite missing the first two weeks of the season. Downs had a large enough sample to debut on the Receiver Scores leaderboard this week, and he came in with an 82 open score after having 26 targets in three games. This will be harder to accomplish with Anthony Richardson at quarterback than Joe Flacco but, hey, it's a bold prediction, right?
Kansas City Chiefs
Original prediction: The Chiefs will be the best offense in football in terms of EPA per play.
Why we're throwing it out: They just haven't been good enough thus far -- they rank ninth through Week 5 -- and I don't see them improving to the point where they rank first, especially after the injuries to WRs Hollywood Brown (shoulder) and Rashee Rice (knee).
New bold prediction: CB Jaylen Watson will be a Pro Bowl alternate. Trent McDuffie being a big part of the solution to fill the void left by L'Jarius Sneed was expected. But Watson has played well, too, allowing 1.1 yards per coverage snap (better than average) and a minus-9 EPA when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Los Angeles Chargers
Original prediction: The Chargers will rank in the top 20 in designed pass rate.
Why we're throwing it out: Turns out all the smoke about a run-first offense under coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman was plenty accurate, because the Chargers rank last in the NFL in designed pass rate (50%).
New bold prediction: OT Joe Alt will be below average in pass block win rate from Week 6 on. Maybe this isn't that bold given his current questionable status and that he ranks 56th out of 70 tackles in the category, but given the level of prospect he was as a top-five pick, him being below average would still be a surprise to many. I almost always fall back to base rates for rookie offensive linemen, in that the majority of them -- even first-rounders -- are below average in Year 1, even if they go on to figure it out later.
Miami Dolphins
Original prediction: The Dolphins will reach the AFC Championship Game.
Why we're throwing it out: With QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) sidelined, FPI has the Dolphins as the league's worst team. If Tagovailoa comes back in the next month, they will likely be playing catch up in the standings. And even when they had him in two games, this offense had negative EPA per play.
New bold prediction: OLB Chop Robinson will have at least five sacks. The rookie has none so far, but more playing time is coming his way following Jaelan Phillips' season-ending knee injury. Robinson has an 18% pass rush win rate at edge, just a hair above-average for a starter at the position.
New Orleans Saints
Original prediction: DE Chase Young will have seven sacks by the trade deadline and be dealt again.
Why we're throwing it out: While not 100% impossible, Young has 1.5 sacks through five games, so he would need 5.5 more in the next four games. Plus, the 2-3 Saints are better than expected. That makes them less likely to trade away contributors at the deadline.
New bold prediction: The Saints will rank in the bottom half of offensive EPA per play from Week 6 on. They were sixth in the category through the first five weeks. Yes, this is partially because QB Derek Carr will miss time with an oblique injury, but also because the team's 49.1% pass block win rate ranks 29th and (excluding their blowout win over Carolina's terrible defense) their EPA per dropback ranks only 14th. I'm concerned about their passing attack -- with or without Carr.
New York Jets
Original prediction: Both WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner will be first-team All-Pros.
Why we're throwing it out: This was ambitious from the jump, and I'm calling it on Wilson's account just five games into the season. I'm a big believer in his talent, but as long as QB Aaron Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett continue to rely so heavily on back-shoulder throws and an old-school offense, then I don't see Wilson getting the necessary yardage. The Receiver Scores are down on him this season, too, with a 33 overall score that ranks 78th in the league.
New bold prediction: Mike Williams will finish the season with at least six touchdowns. The Jets have slowly worked Williams back in, and he has zero touchdowns as of now. But for better or worse (read: worse), they are running a ton of fades and go routes that involve a receiver running straight downfield and probably making a contested catch. That is Williams' wheelhouse, so it could work out for him.
Philadelphia Eagles
Original prediction: DT Jalen Carter will have 10-plus sacks.
Why we're throwing it out: Carter has zero sacks through Week 5 and just an 11% pass rush win rate. I'm still bullish on his future, but his current play won't get him to double-digit sacks.
New bold prediction: Jalen Hurts will rank in the top seven in QBR from Week 6 on. He's currently 13th (59.3 QBR), but that's also been with career-high interception and sack rates while throwing shorter passes than he ever has. He misses wide receiver A.J. Brown, who has been out with a hamstring injury, and once Brown is back and he has more time to jell with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Hurts will start playing more efficiently.
Washington Commanders
Original prediction: The Commanders will trade DT Jonathan Allen before the deadline.
Why we're throwing it out: They are 4-1 and have a window to win now. They're not going to deal contributors at the deadline.
New bold prediction: They will make multiple trades before the deadline to acquire starting talent on defense and/or at wide receiver (Davante Adams?). I would have been stunned to say this before the season, but there's no time to waste: They have a great quarterback, the rest of the division is down and the NFC is fairly weak. It's go time.