I wrote last Monday about how desperately the NFL's 0-2 teams needed a victory in Week 3 to save their seasons. Apparently, most of them were listening. Six 0-2 teams won Sunday, with the Titans as the only holdout of the bunch. In a league in which it doesn't feel like there have been many consistently dominant teams through three weeks, 23 of 32 teams are either 2-1 or 1-2.
Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'
Naturally, with so many upsets and surprising outcomes Sunday, I want to write about several of those unexpected victories and dive into what happened. Not all of them involved an 0-2 team turning things around, but I want to understand what changed or evolved to see five different teams that were underdogs of three points or more pull out wins.
Let's go through those five games. I'll start in Inglewood, California, where the Rams pulled off a dramatic comeback in a matter of minutes:
Jump to a matchup:
49ers-Rams
Broncos-Bucs | Giants-Browns
Packers-Titans | Panthers-Raiders
Rams 27, 49ers 24
The epitaphs were being written for the 2024 Rams. Down 24-17 with 4:57 to go, they had just allowed Jordan Mason to convert a second-and-1, giving the 49ers a first down inside rival territory. Another 10 yards would put San Francisco in field goal range to go up by two scores, which would have left L.A. in a nearly hopeless scenario. ESPN's win expectancy model, which had the 49ers north of 75% for the vast majority of the game, peaked on this very play: The Rams had just a 4.5% chance of pulling out a season-saving victory.
From that point forward, just about everything the Rams needed to happen went their way. Kyle Juszczyk was flagged for holding on the next snap, pushing the 49ers behind the sticks. Brock Purdy couldn't find any open receivers and spent nearly 30 seconds holding the football in his hands across the next three plays, but when the 49ers only made it to the 37-yard line, kicker Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal.
The Rams took over. They scored a touchdown in three plays to tie the game at 24. After another 49ers drive ended in an unsuccessful Purdy scramble, they returned the ensuing punt 38 yards. The 49ers committed three different penalties on the first play from midfield, including a 28-yard pass interference penalty that set up Joshua Karty for a game-winning kick. That's how teams turn 4.5% to 100% in five minutes of game time.
I thought this game and how it ended actually might have told us more about the 49ers than it did the Rams. We've spent most of the past two weeks bemoaning how injuries have torn apart L.A. and drastically impacted its season, but this loss was another one that reinforced just how far San Francisco can stumble when it's missing a handful of key players.
As I mentioned in my column on the looming Purdy contract over the summer, the clock is ticking on this roster. The 49ers have drafted admirably in later rounds and amassed compensatory picks when other teams have signed away their executives, but they're missing a significant amount of Day 1 and Day 2 picks from the last few drafts as a result of the Trey Lance and Christian McCaffrey trades. They've been forced to compensate by using late-round picks on those positions or by signing low-cost veteran free agents to play depth roles. Those guys came back to bite them in Super Bowl LVIII, and those problems popped up again Sunday.
On a day in which Purdy didn't have McCaffrey, George Kittle or Deebo Samuel, the 49ers had to adapt. While they got a career performance from Jauan Jennings, who racked up 11 catches on 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns, it was remarkable to see just how limited and concentrated their passing attack looked. Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, who had another quiet game, were targeted on 22 of Purdy's 30 pass attempts. No other player was targeted more than twice.
By the end of this game, with the Rams having a strong idea of where the ball was going, Purdy didn't seem to have anyplace he wanted to go with it. He held onto it to an almost-comical degree twice in a three-play span when they were up 7 points at the beginning of that sequence I mentioned earlier, simply because there wasn't an intermediate throw he wanted to make. It looked like Aiyuk was open on a deep post on the first play, but perhaps Purdy wanted to try to make a higher-percentage throw to keep the clock moving. As a result, he was forced to do his best Patrick Mahomes impression to try to will somebody open. On the final San Francisco drive, he had to throw to 2023 seventh-round pick Ronnie Bell, who had a step downfield but wasn't able to bring in a pass that would have put it in field goal range.
On defense, the weaknesses created by injuries and a lack of investment led to big problems. The 49ers are still without Dre Greenlaw after the star linebacker tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl, leading them to sign former Packers defender De'Vondre Campbell to fill in. Early in the fourth quarter, Matthew Stafford was able to loft a 32-yard pass over Campbell's head on a post route to Demarcus Robinson. On the biggest play of the game, Campbell was more directly isolated and overmatched. The Rams used motion to split out tight end Colby Parkinson against Campbell in man coverage and then threw a fade in his direction. He committed pass interference 26 yards downfield, setting up the game-winning field goal.
The 49ers have imported journeyman cornerback Isaac Yiadom after he had a career season with the Saints and pushed him into a starting role. Atwell, who might have been fifth on the L.A. depth chart at wideout to start the season before all of this team's injuries, victimized the veteran corner on a go route to generate a 48-yard pass interference penalty. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Yiadom allowed five catches on five targets for 56 yards as the nearest defender in coverage on Sunday, with the pass interference penalty added on top.
The Rams, who are battling the spread of injuries at multiple spots in their lineup, have their own problems. They rolled out backups on the offensive line and in the secondary and have had veterans such as Tre'Davious White struggle in their new digs. This was basically an even game that came down to a couple of breaks. San Francisco had two drives stall in L.A. territory, with one failing via fumble and the other via missed field goal. If either of those moments go the Niners' way, they probably win.
But execution matters, doesn't it? With a paucity of receivers, the Rams shifted their offense seemingly overnight. As The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue noted, they played 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on nearly 44% of their snaps Sunday after rolling out 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) on every single snap during Weeks 1 and 2. They averaged only 4.2 yards per play out of that 12 personnel grouping, but their 42% success rate was in line with what they did out of the more familiar 11 grouping (43%).
And the Rams had a significant advantage on special teams. While the inconsistent Moody missed a field goal that would have come close to sealing the game, Karty hit a (much shorter) pair of field goals. A direct snap to Ronnie Rivers on a fourth-and-6 fake punt picked up a much-needed first down for the Rams, who eventually ended that 16-play drive with a touchdown pass to Kyren Williams. This was a game in which L.A. was clearly pulling out everything it had in its back pocket to get a victory; it had a 34-yard double pass from Atwell to Robinson that should have set up another touchdown called back when Atwell wasn't able to complete the catch in bounds. The Rams might still be severely limited by injuries, but they put everything they had to steal away a comeback victory over their division rivals in the final five minutes.
Giants 21, Browns 15
No one can accuse the Giants of folding when facing adversity. You don't normally see fans turn off their televisions and go about their day after just two plays on a football Sunday, but I'm not sure anybody would have faulted Giants fans if they had this weekend. The opening kickoff ended with New York's Eric Gray fumbling away the football to the Browns, who then rushed onto the field and scored on the first play from scrimmage, with Amari Cooper bringing in a fade over Deonte Banks. The 2024 Giants haven't felt like the sort of team that could spot their opponents seven points on the road in a matter of seconds and survive to pull out a victory.
And then, for the first time this season, the Giants looked like something close to the team coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen must have hoped they would become. Their defense controlled the line of scrimmage. Daniel Jones moved the chains with steady short-to-intermediate completions. Malik Nabers was the much-needed bit of magic they otherwise don't have on offense after letting Saquon Barkley leave in free agency. It wasn't a sexy victory, but for a New York team that seemed on the way to 0-3, it was an essential one.
When the Giants parted ways with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, replaced him with Shane Bowen and traded for Brian Burns this offseason, the goal was to change the way they played defense. The strength of their team was going to be the front four, with Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the edge and Dexter Lawrence on the interior. Shifting away from a blitz-obsessed coordinator to one who was more likely to rush with four and drop seven into coverage made sense, at least on paper.
On Sunday, they changed their mind and succeeded. After blitzing about 25% of the time through Weeks 1 and 2, the Giants blitzed 57.4% of the time, the highest rate for any team in Week 3, and overwhelmed the Browns' offense. Burns & Co. sacked Deshaun Watson eight times and knocked him down 17 times across 45 dropbacks. Seven of New York's 27 blitzes produced sacks. Cleveland's running backs carried the ball 12 times for just 42 yards. The pass rush took over, even if it wasn't exactly the way the organization envisioned in the offseason.
The rush gave the Giants a foothold back into the game after the early disaster. This is not a team built to play from behind by multiple scores. After the early touchdown, they went three-and-out on their first offensive possession. It didn't matter. The Browns did absolutely nothing on offense. Their next seven drives produced a total of 25 net yards. One was a one-play kneel-down at the end of the first half, but you get the idea. Cleveland didn't have a single drive of more than 50 yards all game on offense. Its two touchdowns came on short fields with possessions that started on New York's side of the field.
This was another wildly disappointing game from Watson, who seemed content to scramble for hours without any point and ran his way into big hits, but there have to be real concerns about Cleveland's ability to protect its embattled quarterback. Jack Conklin, who missed virtually all of last season with a serious knee injury, is yet to play in 2024. Jedrick Wills Jr., who was making his season debut, wasn't able to finish his first start of the season. Bruising guard Wyatt Teller left the game injured. At one point, the Browns had veteran guard Joel Bitonio filling in as an emergency left tackle. Watson, frankly, doesn't appear to have the ability to protect himself as he tries to make plays in this offense. Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman aren't great backs, but Cleveland ranks 25th in expected yards per carry. The offensive line needs to be the driving force of this offense, but with former coach Bill Callahan in Tennessee, the unit doesn't look like the one that was once considered among the best in football.
The defense might have lost an even more essential component in Myles Garrett, who left the loss with a foot injury, but even with their superstar edge rusher on the field, the Browns weren't able to do enough to slow down Jones and Nabers. Jones went 24-of-34 for 236 yards with two touchdowns. An interception in the first quarter was wiped off the board for a hit to the head by blitzing cornerback Greg Newsome. Later in that drive, the Giants converted a fourth-and-1, a second-and-16 and a third-and-3 before a Devin Singletary screen set up a short rushing touchdown.
While the Browns were spectacularly dominant during the first half of 2023 on defense, they were more turnover-dependent during the second half of the season, when Garrett was slowed by a shoulder injury. When they faced a team that protects the football and doesn't turn the ball over often -- like the Texans in the wild-card round -- they struggled to get off the field. The Giants don't have many strengths on offense, but they do tend to protect the ball.
The Browns have one takeaway on defense through three games. They rank 10th in the league in expected points added (EPA) per play, which is good, but not at the level that carried a team with five different starting quarterbacks to the postseason a year ago. The defense has dropped from great to good. And the offense has not been able to make up that difference.
It's a moment of respite for the Giants, who next face a team that has embarrassed them in recent years. The Cowboys beat the Giants twice by a combined score of 89-17 last season. Dak Prescott has won his past 12 games against the Giants, with the Cowboys beating their rivals by an average of nearly 17 points per game in those starts. A road trip to Seattle and a currently 3-0 Seahawks team follows. This was a game Jones & Co. simply had to win to have any hope of being competitive this season. After a rough start, Big Blue put their stamp on the game and saved their season in the process.
Panthers 36, Raiders 22
If you consider the leap from what the Panthers did during the first two weeks of the season to what we saw from them Sunday, Andy Dalton appears to be Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen rolled into one 36-year-old body. Taking over an offense that looked shell-shocked and hopeless behind Bryce Young in the season's first two weeks, Dalton immediately drove the Panthers downfield for a touchdown on their opening drive. The offense never looked back.
For the first time all season, Carolina was a threat to create big plays in the passing game. Young had been 0-of-3 with an interception on throws more than 20 yards downfield through two games. Dalton attempted two deep passes Sunday and hit them both. One was a third-and-14 dig route to Diontae Johnson, who had eight catches for a team-high 122 yards. Third-and-long was basically a hopeless situation with Young, who had converted just 13.2% of his third-and-10-plus situations as a pro. Having a quarterback who doesn't immediately settle for a checkdown in those situations was a major upgrade.
The other was a beautiful anticipatory throw to Adam Thielen for a 31-yard touchdown, albeit on a play in which the veteran wideout appeared to injure his hamstring. It was a pass where Dalton threw the ball before Thielen had even ran past either of the defenders he would split to catch the touchdown, the sort of throw a quarterback makes when he trusts his receiver and his ability to read coverages. It was the kind of risk Young simply hadn't been willing to take, either because he had lost faith in his receivers or in himself.
The threat of the passing game opened up running lanes underneath, and Chuba Hubbard ran the ball 21 times for 114 yards in his best performance of the season. Hubbard generated 33 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), but this wasn't simply the product of one big play. He had 13 runs for five yards or more, all of which were successful plays. He finished with a 57.1% success rate; the only back in a 20-carry game to post a higher success rate in a single contest this season was Alvin Kamara against the Cowboys a week ago. Hubbard isn't going to be spectacular, but the offense was not starved for space with Dalton the way it had been with Young.
What might have been just as surprising in its own way was the defense, which put together its best game of the season. The Raiders marched the ball 97 yards down the field for a touchdown on their second possession of the game, but Ejiro Evero's defense clamped up from there. Las Vegas managed just 89 net yards across its next seven possessions, with no single drive topping 25 yards or two first downs. It failed twice on fourth-down conversions and missed a field goal, but it wasn't able to sustain any long drives. By the time Vegas got going on offense, it trailed 33-7.
Evero was playing from a positive game script for what must have felt like the first time in years, but the Panthers went with smaller, lighter fronts in this game and dared the Raiders to run. After playing Josey Jewell as an every-down linebacker last week, Carolina spent more time in sub-packages and moved Xavier Woods all over the field. The Raiders weren't able to exploit the run defense, as their backs turned 13 carries into 41 yards and minus-4 RYOE.
One week after upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore and feeling like they had added another signature win to Antonio Pierce's résumé, the egg Vegas laid at home against the league's worst team had their coach calling out his players during his postgame news conference. Pierce suggested some of his players made "business decisions" as the game went along and that the staff would reciprocate in the weeks to come.
In a game in which the Raiders trailed for most of the contest, it's difficult to make sense of their offense's game plan. Coming off a spectacular Week 2, Davante Adams was targeted nine times, but he managed only four catches for 40 yards on 43 routes. Brock Bowers only ran routes on about half of the team's dropbacks, turning 21 routes into 41 receiving yards. He left the game briefly after an injury before returning, but the star rookie was on the field through the end of regulation, so it was unclear why he wasn't more involved with the passing attack.
The bigger issue is that this defense is carried by Maxx Crosby, and when the star edge rusher has a quiet game, the rest of the team can't hold up their end of the bargain. Crosby had zero sacks and three pressures on 36 pass-rush attempts, but the rest of the roster combined for only six pressures. Malcolm Koonce, who looked impressive down the stretch last season, was placed on injured reserve this week after suffering a knee injury in practice before the season opener. Tyree Wilson, the team's first-round pick from a year ago, is just returning from a sprained knee. The Raiders blitz at one of the league's highest rates, but those blitzes produce pressure at the seventh-lowest rate. Blitzing and failing, especially with an inexperienced secondary, is a recipe for disaster.
One week can change a lot. Seven days ago, the Raiders felt like they were on top of the world on their flight back to Vegas. The Panthers might have wanted to crawl under a rock, and they were about to make a move that would shatter what had been the organization's vision over the past year-plus. A successful start from Dalton doesn't erase the disaster of the Young era, but you can imagine how happy of a flight home that must have been for Carolina.
Packers 30, Titans 14
No Green Bay fan would have drawn the season up this way, but I'm not sure any team has been as unexpectedly fun over the past two weeks as the Malik Willis-led Packers. Facing a potentially season-altering detour after Jordan Love went down injured late in the opening-week loss to the Eagles, there were real concerns they might start off the year by losing their first three or four games. While that might not have sunk their chances, it would have probably limited them to competing for a wild-card spot, especially if we had known the Vikings would start 3-0 and the Lions would go 2-1.
Instead, Willis and the offense have been ruthlessly efficient on the ground and made for wildly entertaining tape. Last week, you might have been able to make the case the Colts weren't prepared to face the run-heavy, almost single-wing offense the Packers rolled out with Willis. This time around, even after a week of tape and with a run defense typically ranked among the league's best, the Titans still weren't able to match Green Bay. While the running backs were limited to 96 yards on 29 carries, Jeffery Simmons & Co. couldn't stop Willis. He went 13-of-19 for 202 yards and added 73 more on the ground in a comfortable victory.
As surprising as the breakouts for Derek Carr and J.K. Dobbins have been so far this season, I'm not sure anybody has exceeded expectations by a more significant amount than Willis. Remember that the Titans basically saw him as unplayable when they needed him down the stretch in the 2022 season; after he went 11-of-26 in two spot starts, when Ryan Tannehill went down injured again late in the season, they turned to Joshua Dobbs as opposed to their rookie third-round pick. Willis threw just five passes for Tennessee a year ago, and after the preseason, the team traded him to Green Bay for a seventh-round pick.
Willis was a huge positive in this game. He scored a 5-yard touchdown early on a play that showed coach Matt LaFleur had wrinkles ready for the wrinkles. The Packers ran a zone-read concept in which Willis was reading the end man on the line of scrimmage. The Titans attempted to scrape exchange the look, where the player Willis was reading cut inside, keying him to keep the football, while the linebacker behind him exchanged gaps and sprinted outside, where he would hopefully meet the quarterback. Unfortunately for him, the Packers cracked the linebacker with a wide receiver, allowing Willis to take on cornerback Roger McCreary one-on-one in the alley. He beat him to the pylon for a score.
Willis had a 29-yard gain later in the quarter on what looked like a zone read bluff concept, where he again reads a defender on the end of the line of scrimmage. This time, Willis had a blocker with him, but the blocker feigned going for the man Willis was reading and cut upfield to block a third-level defender (safety Amani Hooker). Willis beat Kenneth Murray in open space, nearly taking the run to the house.
While the passing game isn't what it would be with Love, it wasn't all screens and gimmicks, either. Willis threw a perfectly placed slot fade to Christian Watson on a third-and-6 for 30 yards to set up his touchdown run. He hit Romeo Doubs on a dig for 18 yards. On third-and-18 with 1:43 to go in the first half, in a situation where most teams with franchise quarterbacks would consider running a draw and trying to chew clock, LaFleur trusted his young passer and was rewarded, with Willis hitting Watson on a sail route for a 37-yard completion.
While Willis is the one making the plays, his success also reinforces LaFleur's status as one of the best coaches in football. Most coaches wouldn't be able or willing to build a package like this for their backup quarterback with an entire offseason to prep. LaFleur has done it in about a week after Love's injury. Green Bay's receivers have blocked their tails off. This has unexpectedly been a very fun offense to watch. And while he isn't taking Love's job in the long term, Willis is going to have a career in the league as a backup because of what he has done over the past two weeks.
On the other side, Willis might have felt a tinge of sympathy for his former teammate. While Will Levis didn't have a disastrous and inexplicable turnover this week, he struggled badly and was brutalized by Green Bay's pass rush. The Packers racked up eight sacks and 12 knockdowns on 42 Levis dropbacks. On a day in which the Titans could muster only 33 yards on 11 rush attempts, the game plan was basically placed on Levis' shoulders. The only starting quarterback on Sunday to post a worse EPA per dropback than Levis' was Baker Mayfield.
With Young having been benched in Carolina and Gardner Minshew taken out of the game in garbage time this week by the Raiders, Levis might be the starting quarterback on shakiest ground. His 28.2 QBR through three games ranks 29th in the league, ahead of only Watson and Young. Owing to his habit of taking sacks, Levis' 4.7 yards per dropback ranks 27th. He has turned the ball over eight times in three games. Teams could live with that if their quarterback had Anthony Richardson-level upside, but even from a clean pocket, Levis' 46.8 QBR ranks 29th. The Titans have a Week 5 bye, so if they lose to the Dolphins next week and start 0-4, they'll have to give serious consideration to starting Mason Rudolph once they come back from the break. They'll also have to wonder whether they let the wrong quarterback out the door.
Broncos 26, Buccaneers 7
This result was probably a little more in line with what people expected after the preseason. Baker Mayfield had his worst game of 2024, going 25-of-33 for just 163 yards with an interception. More importantly, playing without tackle Luke Goedeke, Mayfield was sacked a whopping seven times. He was pressured quickly on 10 of his 40 dropbacks, which was the second-highest rate for any quarterback in the league behind Daniel Jones. His 18 dropbacks under pressure produced a total of nine net yards. Zach Allen, who typically lined up on the right side of the Denver defense, recorded seven pressures to lead the team. He tied with a handful of players for fourth this past week.
Rookie Bo Nix, on the other hand, looked more like the seasoned pro of the two quarterbacks in this game. Going up against a Todd Bowles-led defense can be a chastening experience for young quarterbacks. With Nix coming off a pair of rough starts to begin his career, struggling against the famously aggressive Bowles and his blitz packages could have sunk this game for the Broncos.
Instead, Nix handled the pressure well. He went 10-of-16 against the blitz for 106 yards, a perfectly respectable performance for a first-year player. Crucially, he wasn't sacked once across 36 dropbacks. The Broncos faced only third-and-long four times, with the Bucs helping them out on one third-and-14 by going offsides on consecutive snaps.
And for the first time this season, Nix seemed actively capable of generating big plays within the context of the offense. He went 2-of-4 on deep passes for 53 yards, hitting a pair of fade routes to Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds for big gains. He was a big plus as a runner, turning eight rush attempts into 49 yards. That includes a 3-yard scramble for a touchdown, conversions on fourth-and-1, third-and-3, and third-and-1 and a 22-yard scamper that helped set up a field goal in the fourth quarter. There's still not a lot of passing meat on the bone considering he averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt, but not turning the ball over, not taking sacks and adding significant value with his legs is a good week of football.
Tampa's deal with the red zone devil on defense ran out. In Week 2, despite the Lions moving the ball throughout the game on an injury-hit Tampa defense, Detroit managed to score one touchdown on seven trips inside the 20-yard line. That's not a sustainable way to win on defense, and the Bucs found that out quickly. The Broncos scored touchdowns on each of their first-quarter trips inside the 20 and went 2-of-4 in the red zone on the day.
Injuries are limiting what the Bucs can do on that side of the football. Calijah Kancey, a 2023 first-round pick, has missed the first three games of the season with a calf injury. Antoine Winfield Jr., arguably the team's best player regardless of position, went down with a foot injury in Week 1 and hasn't played since. Last week, they lost mammoth interior force Vita Vea to a knee injury, and Denver promptly ran the ball 28 times for 136 yards and two touchdowns.
For the third consecutive season, the Bucs also have serious questions to ask about their run game, which is almost nonexistent. Rachaad White had just six carries for 17 yards as he battled a groin injury. He's averaging 2.1 yards per carry and ranks fifth worst in rush yards over expectation (minus-46) through three weeks. White ranked last in RYOE last season (minus-110).
There are positive signs, though, from rookie Bucky Irving. The Oregon product racked up 70 yards on nine carries, including a 32-yard run on a misdirection handoff from Mayfield. And while the infrastructure has been a mess in years past, there are more positives here. Tampa Bay ranks a surprising third in the league in expected rush yards per attempt (5.0), up from 16th in 2023 (4.2) and 31st in 2022 (4.1). If White can't take advantage of those opportunities because of his injury, the Bucs might want to give Irving a larger share of the early-down work.
Bowles' team would have been thrilled to start 3-0, in part because of what's to come. Between now and their Week 11 bye, they will face the Falcons twice, travel to play the Saints in New Orleans and have one-off contests with the Eagles, Ravens, 49ers and Chiefs. Upsetting the Lions in Detroit showed Tampa can compete with the best teams in football, but expecting 1-for-7 performances in the red zone from good opposing offenses on a weekly basis is a good way to be disappointed. Most Bucs fans would have happily taken a 2-1 start to the season, but a slate of tough opponents and division rivals over the next two months begins now.