The NFL preseason trade market represents one of the last opportunities for teams to upgrade their rosters ahead of the 2024 season. So let's play trade partner matchmaker to create some potential deals for before Week 1.
I'm proposing five hypothetical moves that make sense for every team involved. We're looking for deals that these teams should pursue -- as opposed to would pursue. That's an important distinction, particularly for the first deal listed below. I factored in team needs, cap space, roster situations and contending timelines.
Let's dive in and make some trades.
Bills make a big swing for WR Adams
Bills receive: WR Davante Adams
Raiders receive: 2025 second-round pick (acquired from Texans/Vikings)
Raiders fans might not like this, and the team itself certainly doesn't -- otherwise, it would have dealt Adams by now. But this exercise is finding trades that make sense for each team involved, and this one satisfies those requirements, despite Las Vegas' stubborn hold on its WR1.
My lack of belief in the Raiders is a big part of why I think they should make this trade. Perhaps I'll be proved wrong, but ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives them a 17% chance to reach the playoffs and less than a 1% chance to reach the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Adams is 31 years old and due to make only $17.5 million in cash this season. He'll not only be older next year (and might be showing some initial signs of decline), but he'll also be scheduled to make $36.25 million at that point. If the Raiders don't deal Adams before the trade deadline this year, they might never be able to trade him.
The rational move would have been to do this last year or earlier this offseason, but there's still time for the Raiders to salvage value from Adams. They should move him now for draft capital that will help the team down the road, even though Adams' trade value has already regressed a bit.
The need for Buffalo is obvious. The Bills are in a prime Super Bowl-contending window with the second-best quarterback in the NFL but lack a No. 1 wide receiver. While rookie Keon Coleman has that potential, it's unlikely to happen right away. While some might argue the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl without a No. 1 wideout last season is a case against the Bills making such a move, I'd contend the lesson from Kansas City is the opposite: The Chiefs had the 11th-best offense in the regular season with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Without adding a topflight receiver, the Bills would likely allow another year of Josh Allen's prime to slip away. The Bills are seventh in FPI's chances to win the Super Bowl (5.7%), but a move for Adams -- who had more than 100 catches for a fourth straight season in 2023 -- would instantly make them a top contender again. A second-round pick for what would likely -- though not definitely -- be a one-year rental is a hefty price. But the change in Super Bowl odds would be worth it. It would be close to even in terms of assets when factoring in the Stefon Diggs trade that Buffalo made this offseason -- and I'd rather have Adams than Diggs.
Cap-wise, this would be tight for Buffalo, which currently has a little less than $11 million in cap space in 2024 and is a little less than $11 million over the 2025 cap. But it's doable with a restructure, converting Adams' 2024 salary into a signing bonus.
Lions get QB insurance with Heinicke
Lions receive: QB Taylor Heinicke
Falcons receive: 2025 seventh-round pick
As soon as the Falcons used the No. 8 overall pick on Michael Penix Jr., Heinicke became expendable. And when you spend that much draft capital on your (for now) backup QB, any draft asset you can get for your third-stringer is worth securing.
While Heinicke is not an amazing quarterback, he's a palatable backup. He has a 46 QBR over 38 career games (29 starts) and had a 51 QBR in five games with Atlanta last season -- though he also posted a minus-9% completion percentage over expectation in that span, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
He's an appealing option for Detroit, considering that the Lions are currently relying on 2023 third-round pick Hendon Hooker to be their backup. While Hooker, who missed all last season recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in college, certainly has more upside than Heinicke, he's also an unknown. If Hooker isn't ready and Jared Goff misses a few games, the Lions would need someone like Heinicke who can navigate them to a win or two and keep them in the running. That type of QB insurance is important, especially considering the Lions' status as a Super Bowl contender.
Falcons pick up Browning for pass-rush help
Falcons receive: Edge Baron Browning, 2025 sixth-round pick
Broncos receive: 2025 fourth-round pick
Prior to the Falcons upending the draft by taking Penix with the No. 8 pick, the consensus was that Atlanta would take a pass-rusher at that spot. That thought was based on sound logic, as edge rusher was a weakness for the Falcons. They were last in pass rush win rate last season at 31%.
Fast forward to today, and the Falcons' outside pass rush looks lackluster at absolute best. In terms of pass rush win rate as edge rushers, Atlanta's current options -- Arnold Ebiketie (13%), James Smith-Williams (11%), Lorenzo Carter (9%) and Zach Harrison (3%) -- ranked below or well below the 16% average for the position. Ebiketie paced the group with six sacks and a 1.9% sack rate. While Browning wouldn't be a surefire fix to this problem, it appears he'd be a clear upgrade over everyone in the above group except Ebiketie. (Atlanta also drafted Bralen Trice in the third round this year, and he should factor in.)
Browning, a third-round pick in 2021, started as an off-ball linebacker his rookie season but moved to the edge in 2022. In his two seasons playing there, he recorded a 13% pass rush win rate and 9.5 sacks. His 2.0% sack rate ranked 53rd out of 116 players with at least 500 snaps at edge over the past two years, which represents a clear improvement over Carter (1.3%, 96th) and Smith-Williams (0.8%, 113th).
Since Browning is a converted off-ball linebacker, he could have some untapped upside. If the Falcons wanted to bet on that, they could even extend him now -- Browning has one year left on his rookie deal -- to maximize value if he pans out. (It is also worth noting a meniscus tear cost Browning the first six games of last season.)
Denver could be willing to part ways with Browning because it has quite a few options at edge in Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto -- who had 8.5 and 8.0 sacks last season, respectively -- along with third-round rookie Jonah Elliss. There's also offseason acquisition John Franklin-Myers, who can play all along the line but played more edge than anywhere else with the Jets last season.
Saints, Bears and Giants pull off three-way swap
Saints receive: OT Larry Borom
Bears receive: Edge Azeez Ojulari
Giants receive: Saints' 2025 fifth-round pick
The Saints were boxed into a corner in April's draft, needing to draft a starting offensive tackle. They did so, selecting Taliese Fuaga to play left tackle, but they still need more OT help now that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is out for the year. As things currently stand, New Orleans is probably relying on Trevor Penning to start at right tackle opposite Fuaga. That's a risky proposition; after barely playing his rookie season, Penning recorded a 73% pass block win rate over 389 snaps at left tackle in 2023, which would have ranked worst of all tackles had he qualified.
Maybe Penning takes a leap in Year 3, but New Orleans needs a safer option. That's tough to find on the trade market since other teams are generally hesitant to give up their No. 3 tackles this time of year.
But Borom, who is behind Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright in Chicago, could help. He has a career 89% pass block win rate at tackle, roughly average for the position (though he was worse in the category last season at 86%). Chicago could be willing to make this trade for a couple of reasons:
The Bears have other backup tackle options in rookie Kiran Amegadjie and veteran Jake Curhan. They aren't risk-free, though. Amegadjie is a rookie and is on the non-football injury (NFI) list. Curhan, who played for Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in Seattle, has played less than Borom and has a lower pass block win rate at tackle in his career (83%).
The Bears, who are rightfully trying to win right away behind rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, would be converting Borom into another player who can help their starting lineup rather than taking on draft capital.
That player would be Ojulari, who was pushed into the role of third pass-rusher on the Giants after they traded for Brian Burns earlier this offseason. Ojulari has shown flashes as a pro, but his career has been marred by injury, as he has played 18 regular-season games over the past two seasons. He recorded eight sacks in his rookie campaign but only 7.5 combined over the past two seasons. Ojulari's 14% pass rush win rate at edge is a little below the 16% average at the position, though he flashed a 21% PRWR at edge in an abbreviated 2022 campaign.
So at best, Ojulari still has some untapped upside. At worst -- assuming health -- he's still an instant upgrade for Chicago over DeMarcus Walker, whose 8% PRWR at edge ranked 48th out of 50 qualifiers at the position. Chicago was 25th overall in pass rush win rate last season at 36%.
The Giants don't need to move on from Ojulari but are already heavily invested in their pass rush between Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence II. So it makes sense to turn a depth player into draft capital that can be used to help shore up the team's many other weaknesses in the future. Ojulari, like Borom, is entering the final year of his contract.
Cowboys get an RB upgrade
Cowboys receive: RB Elijah Mitchell, 2025 sixth-round pick
49ers receive: 2025 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick
You knew the Cowboys' running back situation was tough when team COO Stephen Jones started talking up Royce Freeman. Dallas' running back room consists of veteran journeyman Freeman, a 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and some other contenders. As much as running backs have correctly become devalued, those players probably aren't good enough right now to lead a backfield for a Cowboys team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Mitchell could be the answer, though. He is the presumed backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco, though Kyle Shanahan recently indicated that Jordan Mason could also be in the backup mix. Plus, the 49ers drafted Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round and recently added Matt Breida. If San Francisco feels good about its running back depth, might it be willing to deal Mitchell -- who enters the final year of his contract -- for some draft compensation? Perhaps.
Mitchell would have a good argument to be the Cowboys' best running back. He has averaged 0.4 yards over expectation per carry in his career, per NFL Next Gen Stats. While not an overwhelming figure, it is much better than what we can expect from Elliott, who has had negative RYOE per carry in each of the past three seasons. Dowdle's RYOE per carry was slightly negative last season, too.