NFL training camp is the time for position battles, and no position gets more attention than quarterback. There might not be quite as many starting QB competitions this summer as we've seen in some previous years, but there are certainly still a few unsettled situations.
So with camps now in full swing, we wanted to check in on the spots where there's some question about who might start at quarterback in Week 1 and make some predictions based on what we're hearing around the league so far. Let's open with one brewing in Pittsburgh between two big-name signal-callers.
Jump to a team:
DEN | LV | MIN | NE | PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Candidates: Justin Fields, Russell Wilson
The Steelers landed Wilson for a league-minimum $1.21 million after he was cut by the Broncos with a guaranteed $39 million left on his contract. (The Broncos will be paying the other $37.79 million, which could make for a fun meeting between those two teams in Week 2.) They acquired Fields for a conditional 2025 sixth-round pick and declined his 2025 fifth-year option, so Fields and Wilson are both in one-year, prove-it situations.
Everything I've heard on this for the past month or so has been that Wilson looked better in OTAs and minicamp. He entered training camp as the clear leader in the competition. But when camp opened, an interesting thing happened. Wilson injured his calf and missed the first two days of practice, allowing Fields an opportunity to work with the first-team offense.
This is no small development, especially considering training camp is probably the time of year that offers Fields the best chance to showcase the things he can do that could help him make up ground on Wilson. Fields is one of the most explosive runners in the league at the quarterback position, leading all signal-callers in rushing yards over the past two seasons (1,800). And while the 35-year-old Wilson can still get out on the move and make plays, he doesn't offer what Fields does in that area.
It's easy to listen to the chatter around this situation and just assume Wilson has it all sewed up, but after visiting Steelers camp and talking to people there, I am not so sure. Pittsburgh isn't financially committed to either guy in any significant way. The coaching staff has no prior attachment to either and no preconceived notions about either. In that way, this is a unique quarterback competition that could absolutely still go either way -- especially if Wilson misses more practice time and Fields gets a better chance than expected to close the race.
Week 1 starter prediction: It's a lot more of a coin flip than most think, and I believe that part of the reason the Steelers have set Wilson up as the leader in the competition is because they believe that's the best way to manage him. But I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Fields will show enough through camp to catch him and claim the Week 1 starting spot. I know most people disagree, and I am fully prepared to be wrong. But the vibes didn't start off great for Wilson, and I just think the Steelers are going to be too tempted by Fields' upside once they see them both out there. The question then would become whether Wilson is on the team at all.
Las Vegas Raiders
Candidates: Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell
O'Connell was the Raiders' fourth-round pick in 2023, and while the GM and coach who drafted him are no longer in place, O'Connell did start 10 games for the Raiders last season -- nine of them after Josh McDaniels was fired and replaced by Antonio Pierce, who's still the coach as 2024 begins. O'Connell didn't light the world on fire, posting a 40.5 QBR and throwing 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in his rookie season, but Pierce does have that bit of history with him, and that could be reason enough to make him the early leader in the competition.
Minshew is a sixth-year veteran who's now with his fourth NFL team. He started 13 games for the Colts last season, and while he wasn't consistently great statistically (59.6 QBR, 15 touchdown passes, nine interceptions), he did have the Colts in playoff contention up until the final game of the regular season.
The offensive coordinator is Luke Getsy, who's in his first season with the Raiders after two years as the Bears' offensive coordinator. He's learning both guys' games as the offseason unfolds. Camp opened with O'Connell taking the first-team reps, which is likely a nod to the fact that he finished last season as the starter, but it's a wide-open competition for a team looking for both long- and short-term solutions.
Week 1 starter prediction: I think Pierce will feel enough loyalty to O'Connell to lean his way, and if neither player separates himself during camp, I predict that's the way the Raiders will go in Week 1. How long O'Connell holds the job will likely depend on whether the team is winning, but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see both of these guys start games in 2024 -- and someone totally different could be starting Week 1 in 2025.
Denver Broncos
Candidates: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson
Nix was the 12th overall pick in this year's draft. A lot of people were surprised he went that early, but Broncos coach Sean Payton identified Nix early in the pre-draft process as the player he wanted for his system. Stidham finished last season as the starter after the benching of Russell Wilson. And Zach Wilson is the 2021 No. 2 overall pick who never showed much with the Jets and got traded away for a sixth-round pick.
You can place Zach Wilson as a clear No. 3 in this race right now, based on everything I've heard. He obviously has high-end talent and could theoretically show enough in camp to move up, but he never really did that in three years with the Jets and so far doesn't seem to have impressed anyone very much in Denver.
So that would put this between Stidham and Nix, and it seems like they'll both get chances to show what they can do in camp. Stidham knows the offense because of his experience in it last season, and there have been times this offseason when that experience and knowledge have shown through and he has looked smoother than Nix.
But let's be honest here: Nix is Payton's guy. He will start eventually, and the Broncos hope for a very long time. This is not the kind of even competition we're seeing in Pittsburgh and Las Vegas, because we know how it will turn out eventually, even if not by Week 1. Nix -- who threw 45 touchdown passes and three interceptions at Oregon last season -- would have to look completely overwhelmed in camp and preseason games to lose out to Stidham in this competition.
Week 1 prediction: I don't expect Nix to look overwhelmed, and I expect Payton to run his hand-picked QB of the future out there right away.
Minnesota Vikings
Candidates: Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy
Like the one in Denver, this is a competition whose ultimate ending is already obvious. The Vikings drafted McCarthy 10th overall this year and believe he is their quarterback of the future. Once he is ready, he will play.
The interesting thing about this is the Vikings don't seem to be in any hurry for McCarthy to be ready, and they've made that clear to him and anyone who will listen. Coach Kevin O'Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah built specific developmental plans for several different draft-prospect quarterbacks before they knew for sure which one they'd draft, and they have one specifically tailored for McCarthy. They are insistent that McCarthy will not play until that plan is complete and he has hit every benchmark they've set forth for him.
That's why they have Darnold, another former top-three pick of the Jets who spent last season backing up Brock Purdy and learning under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. He began training camp atop the depth chart, and the Vikings are perfectly comfortable starting Darnold to open the season for as long as it takes for McCarthy to be ready to be an NFL starter. As of now, that is what they expect to happen.
Week 1 prediction: I see Darnold opening the season as the starter, which then raises the question of when the Vikings would switch to McCarthy. We don't know that answer, and it's possible the Vikings don't either, but they do have an early Week 6 bye that could offer a chance to make the change if McCarthy shows enough by then.
New England Patriots
Candidates: Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye
Here's another story with an ending you already know. Maye was the third overall pick in this year's draft and will be the starter eventually. But he's still 21 years old and was viewed by many in the pre-draft process as a raw prospect who'd need time to develop. He has made some breathtaking throws in the offseason that remind you why he was picked where he was picked, but New England is a rebuilding team that believes it can give Maye as much time as he needs.
And that's why the Patriots have Brissett, a reliable veteran who has been everything they hoped he would be so far both as a player and as a mentor for the rookie. Brissett threw three touchdown passes in three games last season with the Commanders and turned in a solid 62 QBR as the Browns' starter in 2022.
Week 1 prediction: Brissett will start and may even start the majority of the Patriots' games in 2024 while Maye gets up to speed.
Other notable situations to watch
I'm not buying the idea that it's a competition in Washington between second overall pick Jayden Daniels and former No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota, and neither does anyone else I talk to about this. I think Daniels starts Week 1 as long as everyone's healthy. If there's a question in Washington, it's about the offensive line and his protection.
Kirk Cousins, assuming he's fully healed from last season's Achilles tear, is the clear starter in Atlanta ahead of eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons have been clear about that since the moment they drafted Penix. Should Cousins falter and the Falcons start losing games, you'll surely hear calls for Penix, but Atlanta does not go into the 2024 season expecting the rookie to play. It believes it is a contender with Cousins.
The Giants have a sticky situation because of a $23 million injury guarantee for 2025 in oft-injured Daniel Jones' contract. They've been adamant that Jones will be the starter this season if healthy ahead of newly acquired Drew Lock. But if he can't pass a physical next March, they'd be on the hook for $23 million for a guy they may no longer want. If the Giants tumble out of contention, watch to see whether they sit Jones down to avoid that. As of now, I am told that is not the plan and that they want to give Jones the season to see whether they need to move on in 2025.
Someone asked me about Seattle, who acquired Sam Howell this offseason, but I have heard absolutely nothing whatsoever to indicate that Geno Smith isn't the unquestioned starter there. He has certainly played well enough the past two years that there shouldn't be any question.