If you want a reminder of how the NFL free agent market can help teams win a Super Bowl, just look at the champs. The Chiefs started four free agent acquisitions on offense, including both tackles (Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor) and two of their three top wideouts (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson). Guard Joe Thuney, who played at an All-Pro level during the season, would have been a fifth if not for a pectoral injury.
On defense, the standout was safety Justin Reid, who ably replaced another former Chiefs free agent addition in Tyrann Mathieu. Mike Edwards lined up next to him and played virtually every snap. Down the lineup, players such as Mike Pennel and Drue Tranquill made a difference in the front seven. No, Kansas City couldn't have done it without Patrick Mahomes, but the star quarterback got a lot of help from the players general manager Brett Veach & Co. added in free agency.
Free agency can be a double-edged sword. When I used to grade individual signings, my average report came in somewhere in the C to C-plus range because most free agent signings don't live up to expectations. Competing with other teams on the open market can lead organizations to make mistakes. Not grasping the market and being thoughtful about what's available can lead to decisions that look foolish a year later.
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Take the Panthers signing running back Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal in mid-March a year ago. We couldn't have known his performance would entirely crater outside of Philadelphia, but it was inevitable that he would lose efficiency without Jalen Hurts and a top-three offensive line. Looking at contracts across the league also made it clear there were going to be running backs hitting the market as cap casualties over the spring and summer. Those backs weren't great, either, but at least they didn't tie up $11 million in guarantees over two years. Smart organizations read the market. Foolish ones react.
What does the 2024 market actually look like, though? Over the next two weeks, I'm going position by position and establishing what free agency might look like around the league on a tier-by-tier basis. For each spot in the lineup, you'll get to see how many players at each level are actually going to come available this offseason, both as unrestricted free agents and potential cap-related releases. I'll also hit on which teams should expect to be in the market from spot to spot and how much those players should expect to land on their next deals. What teams pay, after all, can almost matter as much as who they sign.
Let's start with three positions: offensive linemen, tight ends and quarterbacks. These aren't positions likely to deliver superstars to the open market, but we can get a sense of how squeezed the top players available might be given the number of teams looking to make changes.
Jump to a position:
QB | TE | O-line
Quarterback
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
It's rare to see a quarterback of this caliber hit unrestricted free agency. The exceptions are often players coming off injuries (Drew Brees in 2006), in their late-30s or older (Tom Brady in 2020) or both (Peyton Manning in 2012). Kurt Warner might be the lone exception here, as his performance had declined with the Rams and Giants before surging again after joining the Cardinals in 2005.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Cousins is unquestionably the best quarterback on the market, though he's recovering from his first serious injury after he tore his right Achilles in late October. Before the injury, Cousins' 63.6 QBR was the ninth-best mark in the league. His 11.2% off-target rate ranked No. 1 over the first half of the season, and he did it without Justin Jefferson for a chunk of that time.
The last time Cousins was a free agent, he parlayed his leverage into a three-year deal worth a fully guaranteed $84 million. After two seasons, he parlayed that contract and Minnesota's need for cap relief into two additional deals. In all, he earned $185 million over his six years with the Vikings for an average of just under $31 million per season.
Any team hoping to win over the next three years that isn't in position to land one of the top starters in the 2024 draft should be trying to pursue Cousins. That's a group that includes the Broncos, Buccaneers, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers and Titans, with the Dolphins and Seahawks as outside candidates if they move on from their current starters. Some of those teams will opt for longer shots in the draft, but if Cousins' recovery is on track, he should be able to get one more significant deal as a 35-year-old free agent.
Average annual salary projection: $51 million per season
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: None
Possible cap casualties: Russell Wilson, Broncos
Here's where we get our first cap casualty, and there doesn't need to be much projection here. The Broncos benched Wilson at the end of the season to ensure that his $37 million salary for 2025 wouldn't be triggered by an injury. Even though they owe him $39 million more in guarantees for 2024, they likely will cut him before free agency begins. In addition to giving up multiple first-round picks to acquire him, Denver will have paid Wilson $124 million for two seasons.
Wilson was disappointing and won't make this sort of money again, but he was competent as a low-ceiling starter behind a Broncos offensive line that didn't do him many favors. The former Seahawks standout didn't show much as a downfield passer during his time in Denver, but he protected the football and posted a 26-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he wants to keep playing, one of the teams that misses out on Cousins should look toward Wilson.
Average annual salary projection: $1.3 million (Wilson will be collecting money from his Broncos deal and teams will have no reason to offset the money he's already owed.)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Jacoby Brissett, Commanders; Joe Flacco, Browns; Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers; Gardner Minshew, Colts; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Jameis Winston, Saints
Possible cap casualties: Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders
This is the passing-through tier, generally comprising players who either raised their stock or massively disappointed in 2023. Mayfield and Minshew proved they could lead teams with low expectations to winning records, while Flacco helped save Cleveland's season with late-season heroics as its fourth quarterback. Garoppolo and Tannehill lost their jobs by Halloween and didn't do much afterward, while Brissett and Winston spent their seasons on the bench.
Strictly on their 2023 merits, Mayfield and Minshew might be considered a tier higher and it's entirely possible a team might view them as that caliber of passer and pay them accordingly. Given that they each signed for deals in the $3.5 million to $4 million range a year ago and lack prototypical NFL size, though, teams might not be willing to pay them in line with their performance from last season.
Several of the quarterbacks in this tier are probably more valuable to their 2023 teams than to others. The Saints should want to re-sign Winston to avoid more than $10 million in dead money from his old deals hitting their cap. Mayfield seemed to find a home with the Buccaneers. Minshew won't be the starter in Indianapolis once top 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson returns from injury, but if he's going to be a backup anywhere, it might as well be in Indianapolis. Garoppolo won't be returning to the Raiders, but a trip back to New England as the bridge quarterback to whomever the Patriots draft with the No. 3 overall pick seems like his most likely path.
Average annual salary projection: $9 million to $13 million per season
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Sam Darnold, 49ers; Drew Lock, Seahawks; Marcus Mariota, Eagles; Tyrod Taylor, Giants; Carson Wentz, Rams
These are the quarterbacks who will be first off the market for teams looking for veteran backups, a group that could include more than half of the league. Most of these players got meaningful guarantees on their last deal, with Wentz as the lone exception. His brief cameo with the Rams probably won't move the needle, but his draft pedigree and the relatively positive vibes coming out of his time in Los Angeles should net him a guarantee as a backup somewhere.
In general, the players in this tier are going to struggle to land the sort of deals they received on their previous contracts, given they're all at least a year older and didn't do much to distinguish themselves. Lock led a comeback victory over the Eagles, but it's unclear whether the new staff in Seattle will be as interested in him as the Pete Carroll regime. Darnold might get the biggest deal of the bunch, owing both to his draft résumé and the halo effect of playing under Kyle Shanahan.
Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $7 million per season
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Joshua Dobbs, Vikings; Blaine Gabbert, Chiefs; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Mason Rudolph, Steelers; Nate Sudfeld, Lions, Mitch Trubisky, Steelers
Possible cap casualties: Taylor Heinicke, Falcons
This final tier includes players who should be able to land spots on NFL rosters but who won't have more than a modicum of guaranteed money when they sign, meaning they'll have to compete for their roster spot in camp. Dobbs and Rudolph are the most conspicuously productive players in this bunch, but there wasn't much interest in Dobbs each of the times he came available in 2023. Rudolph's brief burst of production was out of line with his prior career performance, and he is likely to re-sign with the Steelers.
Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million per season
Restricted free agents: Jake Browning, Bengals
A separate section is required for restricted free agents, who are extremely unlikely to leave their existing teams. Browning is an exclusive rights free agent, meaning the Bengals can hold on to him simply by making him a qualifying offer at the league minimum. After Browning posted a 98.4 passer rating on 243 pass attempts while filling in for an injured Joe Burrow in 2023, making that offer will be an easy decision for Cincinnati.
Tight End
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
Elite tight ends also typically stay off the free agent market. The exceptions have been "move" tight ends such as Julius Thomas signing with the Jaguars in 2015 and Jimmy Graham signing with the Packers in 2018. Given how affordable the contracts for even great tight ends have been, it typically has been easy to get deals done with the best guys in the business before they hit the market.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Dalton Schultz, Texans
While Schultz hasn't made it to the Pro Bowl during his six-year career, the former Cowboys tight end has the sort of performance background that could produce a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign on his next deal. After a slow start over his first month in Houston last season, the 27-year-old averaged 1.91 yards per route run from Week 5 onward, which ranked ninth among tight ends.
Schultz was franchise-tagged for just under $11 million during his final season in Dallas in 2022, but after hitting the market a year ago, he signed a one-year contract for $6.3 million with Houston. This is probably his best chance at a multiyear guarantee, so I would expect him to split those two figures, either by re-signing with Houston or heading elsewhere.
For teams that desperately need receiving help, signing Schultz would be a relatively low-cost way to add a middle-of-the-field and red zone target for a young quarterback. The Commanders, Patriots and Colts should be interested. One under-the-radar team might be the Rams. They don't typically make signings like this because it impacts their compensatory formula, but they have a hole at tight end with Tyler Higbee potentially missing the start of the 2024 season (knee).
Average annual salary projection: $11 million per year
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Noah Fant, Seahawks; Hunter Henry, Patriots
The pickings are slim at tight end. Henry didn't dominate during his three seasons in New England, but after battling injuries for most of his time with the Chargers, he was active for 48 of his 51 possible games with the Pats. He scored nine touchdowns in 2021 and 17 total with the Patriots, figures that were depressed by the inconsistent quarterback play by the Patriots over the past two seasons. Henry's three catches for 30 yards per game won't thrill fans, but he's going to be a steady starter for another year or two, and the lack of impressive options should give him a reasonable market.
Fant is right on the line between Tier 3 and Tier 4 for me. He'll have an interesting market, given that he was a first-round pick in 2019. There aren't a lot of 249-pound guys who can run a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, as Fant did at the combine, but he was never able to parlay that into a steady role in the Denver or Seattle passing attacks. Fant turned 26 in November, so he's relatively young for a player with five seasons of NFL experience. He might still have some upside as a receiver.
Average annual salary projection: $8 million per year
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Gerald Everett, Chargers
Possible cap casualties: Taysom Hill, Saints; Jonnu Smith, Falcons
The big name here is Hill, who has proven to be a better idea in theory than actual practice given how the Saints used him on a week-to-week basis over the past couple of seasons. He's still a useful player, but he's 33 and has a $15.8 million cap hit for 2023, the third-largest figure for any tight end. The Saints could restructure his deal, but making him a post-June 1 release would free up $10 million in cap space for a player who played only 38% of the offensive snaps in 2023.
I suspect Hill might get to Sean Payton and the Broncos about as quickly as Jonnu Smith might run to Arthur Smith and his new digs in Pittsburgh.
Average annual salary projection: $4.5 million per year
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Harrison Bryant, Browns; Josiah Deguara, Packers; Mike Gesicki, Patriots; Marcedes Lewis, Bears; Colby Parkinson, Seahawks; Irv Smith Jr., Bengals; Adam Trautman, Broncos; Charlie Woerner, 49ers
Possible cap casualties: Will Dissly, Seahawks
A lot of the tight end market is here, with players who will have a role in 12- and 13-personnel packages and have specialized skill sets that need sheltered snaps. On one side of the spectrum, there is Gesicki, who racked up 780 receiving yards two years ago and has 606 combined over the two subsequent seasons. He needs to be spotted snaps as a big slot receiver, which limits his market to teams that don't have a more explosive option on the interior. Franchise-tagged as recently as 2022, Gesicki could represent a low-risk, high-reward opportunity if he ends up in the right offense.
On the other hand, there are players such as Bryant and Lewis, who are going to be on the field for their blocking and might catch only a handful of passes all season. It was a surprise when Lewis didn't join the Packers reunion in New York with Aaron Rodgers & Co. last year, although the Jets had a lot invested at tight end; some of those snaps should come open this offseason, giving Lewis a chance to chase a ring with his old friends.
Average annual salary projection: $2.5 million per year
Tier 6: Backup likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Blake Bell, Chiefs; Ross Dwelley, 49ers; Austin Hooper, Raiders; Brycen Hopkins, Rams; Johnny Mundt, Vikings; MyCole Pruitt, Falcons; Geoff Swaim, Cardinals; Robert Tonyan, Bears
Possible cap casualties: Logan Thomas, Commanders; C.J. Uzomah, Jets
Tonyan was a red zone threat in 2020 and racked up 11 touchdowns at Green Bay, but he tore his ACL in 2021 and has six touchdowns over his five other pro seasons. Along with the other tight ends in this group, these players are second or third options teams won't count on for more than 200 offensive snaps in 2024.
Thomas and Uzomah have battled injuries and have significant salaries in 2024. I can't see the Commanders bringing back the 32-year-old Thomas with more than $6.5 million in compensation due next year, while Uzomah has an $8 million salary that is unguaranteed. Both will either take a pay cut to stay where they are or hit the market this spring.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million per year
Restricted free agents: Tanner Hudson, Bengals; Brock Wright, Lions
Wright was a red zone threat in December 2022 for the Lions, scoring three touchdowns in two games before giving way to Sam LaPorta a year ago. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a market as an unrestricted free agent, but he's still one season away from getting there.
Offensive linemen
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: C Jason Kelce, Eagles
Even at age 36, Kelce remains one of the top centers in all of football and an essential player for the Eagles. If you give him some direct portion of the credit for Philly's success on the "Tush Push," he might be the league's most valuable offensive lineman.
Of course, Kelce probably isn't going anywhere: The future Hall of Famer is expected to retire or return to the Eagles, the only NFL team for which he has played.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: G Kevin Dotson, Rams; G/OT Mike Onwenu, Patriots; OT Tyron Smith, Cowboys
Possible cap casualties: C Mitch Morse, Bills
After six restructures, the eight-year extension Smith signed with the Cowboys in 2014 is finally complete, allowing the eight-time Pro Bowler to hit free agency for the first time in his career. It seems like he has been around forever, given that he entered the league in 2011, but he's still only 33. Injuries have sapped some of his physical tools and prevented him from playing a full season since 2015, but Smith's 13 appearances this past season were the most he has made since 2019. NFL Next Gen Stats ranked him second among left tackles in 2023 with a 6.5% pressure rate, although he did post a league-high nine holding penalties. The veteran will be an intriguing option for win-now teams if the Cowboys don't strike a deal to bring him back. Could the Chiefs use him as a replacement for Donovan Smith?
Morse is another veteran who has battled injuries during his career, most notably a series of concussions that raised concerns about his pro future. After making his first Pro Bowl appearance in 2022, he suited up for all 17 games in 2023 and wasn't credited as allowing a single sack all year by Next Gen Stats. In the final year of his deal for a cap-strapped Bills team, Morse's $11.5 million cap hold might be too pricey; Buffalo could elect to give the 31-year-old a new deal or let him go to free up more than $8 million in room.
The two younger players are going to have interesting markets, given that they have put together really only one season of Pro Bowl-caliber play. Dotson, acquired from the Steelers last August, emerged as a physical force on the interior, playing virtually every meaningful snap for the Rams at right guard after sitting out the first three weeks of the season. Offensive linemen share one franchise tag, so a near-$21 million tag for him wouldn't be cost-effective, but L.A. is going to need to get close to that on a multiyear deal if it wants to keep him.
Onwenu has been asked to bounce around the line for the Patriots, but when given a chance to play right guard all season in 2022, he looked like one of the NFL's best. He did a solid job at right tackle in 2023, so there will be teams willing to pay him tackle money this offseason and others that will strictly see him as a very good guard. If the Jets are going to cut Laken Tomlinson (more on that in a moment) and move Alijah Vera-Tucker back to guard, Onwenu could be a valuable addition to the right side of their line.
Average annual salary projection: $20 million per year (left tackle), $16 million per year (guard), $12 million per year (center)
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: C Tyler Biadasz, Cowboys; OT Trent Brown, Patriots; C Lloyd Cushenberry, Broncos; G/OT Robert Hunt, Dolphins; G Jonah Jackson, Lions; G Damien Lewis, Seahawks; G Jon Runyan, Packers; OT Donovan Smith, Chiefs; OT Jonah Williams, Bengals; G Kevin Zeitler, Ravens
Possible cap casualties: OT David Bakhtiari, Packers; OT D.J. Humphries, Cardinals; G Laken Tomlinson, Jets
There typically aren't many left tackles on the market. This year could be an exception. As many as 11 teams could be looking for a new player to protect their quarterback on the left side, so there's going to be a rush in looking for solutions. Some of those teams will try to grab tackles in the draft, but ask the Jets about what happens if you don't have linemen you can trust protecting your quarterback. Nailing this section of the market could be what makes or breaks a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Just about every one of those tackles comes with a red flag. Brown has played well for really only the Patriots, and he fell out of favor even with them last season. Smith ranks third in the league in holding penalties over the past five seasons (29). Williams wasn't able to lock down the left side of the line for the Bengals and allowed eight sacks after moving to right tackle in 2023. Tomlinson, the lone guard in the bunch, has an untenable $18.7 million cap hit for a Jets team that needs to upgrade just about everywhere along the offensive line. The Jets might not want to create another hole in their lineup, but they're better off saving the money on Tomlinson and signing two players instead. (Note: They released Tomlinson on Monday night.)
Bakhtiari missed virtually all of the 2021 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee, came back in 2022 and then missed the final 16 games of the 2023 campaign after undergoing another knee surgery. He has a staggering $40 million cap hit in 2024, which just isn't a realistic figure. The Jets should be interested if Bakhtiari is released given his history with Rodgers, although relying on him without a backup plan seems dangerous. Humphries tore an ACL in December and might not be ready for the start of 2024; the Cardinals could designate him as a post-June 1 release and move 2023 first-rounder Paris Johnson Jr. to the left side. I wonder if the Ravens might take a flyer on Humphries with the hopes that they land a starter in the second half of 2024.
The interior linemen are safer bets, although it's typically easier to find guards in the draft. One of the tough questions here will be evaluating players who have spent most of their careers surrounded by talent up front. Will Biadasz be as good when he's not playing next to Zack Martin? What about Jackson without Frank Ragnow alongside at center? Some teams would rather just pay their tackles more and try to get by on the interior.
If you subscribe to the idea that availability is the best ability, you might look toward Williams and Tomlinson as the best of the bunch. Williams is only 26 and has significant experience playing on the blindside for a contender; the Bengals aren't going to pay him left tackle money, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots or Titans take the plunge, a move that would both fill a critical hole and allow them to look toward receiver (or quarterback) in the first round of April's draft.
Average annual salary projections: $12 million to $16 million (left tackle), $12 million (right tackle), $10 million (guard), $8 million (center)
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: OT Duane Brown, Jets; C Mason Cole, Steelers; G/OT Jack Driscoll, Eagles; OT George Fant; C/G Graham Glasgow, Lions; C Andre James, Raiders; OT Yosh Nijman, Packers; G/OT Andrus Peat, Saints; G Dalton Risner, Vikings; G John Simpson, Ravens; G Greg Van Roten, Raiders; C/G Cody Whitehair, Bears; C Connor Williams, Dolphins; G/OT Isaiah Wynn, Dolphins
Possible cap casualties: OT Charles Leno Jr., Commanders; OT Joe Noteboom, Rams; OT Ronnie Stanley, Ravens
Like the tier above, there's a group of former standouts here who have fallen because of injuries. The 38-year-old Brown might be done. Stanley sadly suffered a career-altering ankle injury days after signing a five-year extension in 2020; he has missed significant time over the past four seasons and was rotating in and out of the lineup for stretches to try to stay fresh in 2023. It's tough to see the Ravens bringing him back with a cap hit of more than $26 million, although a reduced deal would make sense for both sides.
Fant and Wynn settled for one-year deals last offseason but played well enough to justify raises this offseason. Fant took over the right tackle job in Houston because of an injury to Tytus Howard and never gave it back, pushing Howard inside to left guard. (Howard's X profile says he's "right tackle only," but if Fant returns to the Texans, he might not have a choice.) Wynn, the former Patriots first-round pick, looked great at left guard for the Dolphins before suffering a quad injury in Week 7.
There were some solid guard performances last season in this tier. Simpson stepped in for the departed Ben Powers in Baltimore and started all 17 games on one of the league's best offenses. The Ravens are typically comfortable letting guards leave for compensatory picks, so if Simpson has a market, he'll be heading elsewhere. The 33-year-old Van Roten had his best season as a pro in Las Vegas; the journeyman should get a raise on the $1.6 million he made in 2023.
The two most interesting players on this list to me are Driscoll and Nijman. Driscoll was the swing tackle for the Eagles over the past few seasons playing ahead of Andre Dillard, whom the Titans guaranteed $10 million last offseason. Nijman rotated in behind Rasheed Walker after Bakhtiari got hurt in September. In 2022, Nijman rated as elite by ESPN's win rate metrics, ranking 11th among tackles in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate. We'll see if teams are willing to stretch their budgets and pay these swing tackles like they're starters in waiting.
Average annual salary projections: $8 million to 10 million (left tackle), $6 million to $8 million million (right tackle), $4 million to $6 million (guard), $3 million (center)
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: G Nick Allegretti, Chiefs; C Aaron Brewer, Titans; G/OT Saahdiq Charles, Commanders; OT Geron Christian, Browns; G Ezra Cleveland, Jaguars; G/OT Chuma Edoga, Cowboys; G/OT Jermaine Eluemunor, Raiders; G Dan Feeney, Bears; G/OT Matt Feiler, Buccaneers; G Jon Feliciano, 49ers; C Nick Harris, Browns; C Tyler Larsen, Commanders; OT Kendall Lamm, Dolphins; OT Cornelius Lucas, Commanders; C Connor McGovern, Jets; OT Chuks Okorafor, Steelers; G Lucas Patrick, Bears; C/G Scott Quessenberry, Texans; G/C Tyler Shatley, Jaguars; G/OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Eagles; G Elijah Wilkinson, Cardinals
Possible cap casualties: C/G Bradley Bozeman, Panthers; OT Andre Dillard, Titans
At this level, teams are just looking for functional linemen who can step in for the inevitable injuries that pop up for an offensive line as the season goes along. Those sixth and seventh linemen can be critically important to a roster; one of the things that helped swing the Super Bowl toward Kansas City might have been Feliciano going down with an injury, as backup Spencer Burford appeared to blow a pass protection on the third-and-4 play in overtime that should have produced a San Francisco touchdown. Feliciano is in this section, as is Allegretti, who filled in for Joe Thuney on the Chiefs in the postseason.
Some teams are looking for versatility, hoping they can plug in a lineman to replace one of multiple spots in the lineup. Many linemen at this level have to survive by being able to handle guard or tackle in a pinch, although they obviously have their preferences for playing one or the other on a full-time basis. Teams will take a long look at Charles, hoping that better coaching can unlock something more out of a 2020 fourth-rounder who won't turn 25 until July.
The exception at this tier would be if a player can take snaps at left tackle and qualify strictly as a swing tackle. There's a surprising number of players with left tackle experience on this list. Christian and Lucas inherited those jobs when others got injured, while Dillard started the season as Tennessee's left tackle before being benched in October. Lamm has taken snaps at left tackle for the Dolphins over the past couple of seasons when Terron Armstead has gone down injured. These aren't guys you want playing 1,000 snaps on your quarterback's blind side, but if they can hold up for a few games without getting anybody injured, they'd be valuable to have waiting on the bench. Three-quarters of the league will probably be adding at least one Tier 5 or Tier 6 offensive lineman this offseason.
Average annual salary projections: $2 million to $4 million (swing tackle), $1.5 million to $3 million (utility linemen)
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: G Ben Bredeson, Giants; G/C Evan Brown, Seahawks; C/G Will Clapp, Chargers; C/G Michael Deiter, Texans; G David Edwards, Bills; C/G Pat Elflein, Cardinals; C/G Cameron Erving, Saints; OT Cam Fleming, Broncos; G/OT Cody Ford, Bengals; G/OT Michael Dunn, Browns; G Phil Haynes, Seahawks; OT Charlie Heck, Texans; OT Chris Hubbard, Titans; G Gabe Jackson, Seahawks; G/OT Josh Jones, Texans; G/OT Matt Pryor, 49ers; G Sua Opeta, Eagles; G Max Scharping, Bengals; G Aaron Stinnie, Buccaneers; OT Brandon Parker, Raiders; OT Justin Skule, Buccaneers; G/OT Billy Turner, Jets; OT Oli Udoh, Vikings
Possible cap casualties: C/G Ryan Bates, Bills; G Mark Glowinski, Giants
A lot of the players in this section are veterans who were regarded as valuable swing linemen as recently as a couple of years ago; now, they're probably looking at one-year deals and will need to win a roster spot in camp. Erving and Turner were starters on good teams, and Skule even started eight games at left tackle for the 2019 49ers on their way to the Super Bowl while Joe Staley was injured. Skule tore an ACL in 2021 and has played just 35 snaps as a backup for the Buccaneers since.
Bates also has an interesting story. In 2022, the Bears signed him to an offer sheet as a restricted free agent, only for the Bills to match. He was then given the starting right guard job in 2022, but the Bills weren't happy with the results and gave him only 35 offensive snaps in 2023. Cutting Bates would free up as much as $4 million in cap space for Buffalo. I wonder whether Chicago general manager Ryan Poles will make another run at him as a utility lineman this offseason.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million
Restricted free agents: G Ben Bartch, 49ers; OT Blake Brandel, Vikings; G/OT Blake Hance, Jaguars; OT Alaric Jackson, Rams; G Nick Leverett, Buccaneers; OT Brandon Walton, Buccaneers; OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Chiefs
There might be a real market for Jackson, who started 15 games at left tackle for the Rams and held his own. Next Gen Stats suggest he allowed a below-average pressure rate (11.4%) but just two sacks all season, which was the league's best rate for a tackle with at least 300 snaps played. Jackson might have been a little lucky to get away with allowing pressures that often without those opportunities turning into too many sacks, but 25-year-old offensive linemen who go an entire season with just two sacks credited against them aren't exactly easy to come by.
The Rams could sign Jackson to a multiyear extension. If not, they'll end up tendering Jackson a one-year deal and have the right to match an offer sheet if he gets one from another team, getting a draft pick if they decline. The first-round tender would cost $6.8 million and return a top-32 pick if the Rams don't match, while the second-round tender would be $4.9 million. They can retain the right to match without getting any draft pick compensation at $3.1 million, but that would be taking a surprising level of risk for a player who should appeal to other teams.