There are just four teams left in the NFL playoffs, and this Sunday's conference championship games will decide which two will go to Super Bowl LVIII. First up, the Chiefs go on the road to play the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, setting up Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. Then the Lions look to continue their run in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers. There's a lot on the line, and we mapped out how all four teams can win and advance.
We dug into the tape to pick out keys to victory -- one offensive and one defensive -- and build out game-plan blueprints for every team. Based on what I've seen on tape and with some help from the numbers, we can get a better feel for how coaching staffs will scheme for personnel, game situation and coverage. We also picked out an X factor player who could play a big part for each of the four franchises. Here are the game-plan keys for both games, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections and ESPN BET lines for each matchup.
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Chiefs-Ravens | Lions-49ers
AFC: (3) Kansas City Chiefs at (1) Baltimore Ravens
When: 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
ESPN BET: BAL -4 (44.5)
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.6%
How the Chiefs can win
Attack the outside third of the field
The Ravens have the most fundamentally sound defense I've watched on tape this season. That unit allowed only 74 completions of 15 or more yards during the regular season, the fifth fewest in the league. That said, the Chiefs can use their staple route concepts to create opportunities outside the numbers against Baltimore's single-high and split-safety coverages, with tight end Travis Kelce as the top target for Mahomes. Here, the Chiefs can influence the cornerbacks when Baltimore spins late to play Cover 2.
I'd like to see Kelce breaking to a depth of 15 yards on the corner route there. That's the boundary window in front of the safety. And when the Ravens are in single-high, it's the three-level flood and sail concepts that could help the Chiefs move the chains. Those should create a void for Kelce to run the outside breaking route or drag him across the field on a deep crosser. Kelce caught three passes for 57 yards and a touchdown on throws outside the numbers in the divisional round win over Buffalo, and those concepts can be deployed again on Sunday in Baltimore, with multiple personnel and alignments to break formation tendencies.
Inside the numbers, the Chiefs were 24th in yards per pass attempt (7.0) and 22nd in completion percentage (68.8%) this season. Outside the numbers, they were much better, ranking 15th in yards per attempt (7.4) and third in completion rate (69.3%).
Dial up Cover 0 pressure
During the regular season, the Chiefs blitzed at a rate of 32.8%, the fourth highest in the league. And they played Cover 0 -- blitz with no safety help -- on 42 snaps, the most in the NFL. This a foundational piece of Steve Spagnuolo's defense, and it can give the Chiefs an edge against Jackson and the Ravens' offense.
The goal here is to force Baltimore to define its routes quicker against pressure and limit Jackson's ability to find open rush lanes on scramble attempts. Including last week's playoff win over Houston, Jackson has rushed for 489 yards on scramble attempts this season, with 16 carries of 10 or more yards. He is one of the league's best at identifying daylight in the pocket. Kansas City has to take that away as much as it can, especially in critical situations like third down and in the red zone.
X factor: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
Valdez-Scantling had only five receptions of 20 or more yards and dropped four passes during the regular season. But in the divisional round, he had two catches of 30 or more yards, which played a key role in the Chiefs' win. He's a vertical stretch target with the ability to stack on man coverage or isolate against a Ravens safety downfield. Mahomes will need to make those third-level throws.
How the Ravens can win
Scheme against the Chiefs' defensive tendencies in the red zone
Jackson had 16 red zone touchdown passes this season, thanks in part to offensive coordinator Todd Monken's scheme and in part to his second-reaction throwing ability in scoring position. Monken attacked both zone and man coverage here, setting Jackson up to thread the ball into zone windows or scripting man-coverage beaters that influence the discipline and communication of the opposing defense. The Ravens were eighth in red zone efficiency this season, scoring a TD on 61.8% of their trips inside the 20.
We will see a lot of man coverage from Kansas City in the lower parts of the red zone, inside the 10-yard line. Monken has answers there, with receivers running crossers and delaying their releases. When the ball is in the high red zone -- between the 10- and 20-yard lines -- the Chiefs will mix in some 2-Deep with their man looks. They have played Cover 2 in that area 22.4% of the time this season, including playoffs. That is where Monken can use play-action, movement and different formations/personnel to give Jackson an edge when targeting the zone voids.
Get home on simulated pressures
Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald can heat up the pocket -- often with a free runner -- using simulated pressures. The Ravens had a pressure rate of 32.8% this season, eighth best in the league, but they don't have to rush five to get home. Macdonald can deploy his schemed fronts, getting a second- or third-level pass-rusher loose away from the slide protection.
Look for slot corner Arthur Maulet, linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, and safety Kyle Hamilton to make some plays here. And when the Ravens bring their four-man sim pressures, they can speed up the process for Mahomes, while also moving late to play Cover 3 or Cover 2.
X factor: Justice Hill, RB
Hill turned 15 touches into 77 total yards against the Texans, and he logged at least 25 receiving yards in each of his final three regular-season games. He gives the Ravens some juice in the run game as a rotational back with Gus Edwards, and he can play a key role as a screen target or underneath outlet for Jackson.
NFC: (3) Detroit Lions at (1) San Francisco 49ers
When: 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
ESPN BET: SF -7 (51.5)
FPI prediction: SF, 74.1%
How the Lions can win
Stick with the leveled throws for Jared Goff
In the Lions' two playoff wins, Goff has lit up the middle of the field, completing 78.4% of his throws inside the numbers, totaling 347 passing yards and throwing two touchdowns. Detroit's leveled concepts give Goff a high-to-low read on in-breaking routes, with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta as his primary targets.
He will again have those opportunities against the 49ers' defined zone coverages on Sunday. San Francisco played zone on 66.4% of opponent dropbacks this season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. So Detroit should use more early-down play-action, limiting linebacker Fred Warner's ability to get to depth as a hook/middle-read defender, and pepper the middle of the field in the pass game. Goff is at his best when he can do that, throwing with both anticipation and ball location.
Get the 49ers and Brock Purdy off-schedule with pressure
Third-down pressure is a part of every game, but a closer look at the tape and the numbers tells us that Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will dial it up on early downs, too. We saw it last week, with both slot corner Brian Branch and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu getting home on blitzes in the divisional round win over Tampa Bay on early-down pressure calls.
Including the playoffs, Detroit has a blitz rate of 28.3% on first and second down, which ranks in the top 10. It allows the Lions to be aggressive from a defensive perspective, with the goal of winning those early downs and putting Purdy and this Niners offense behind the sticks. To compete with San Francisco, you can't allow Purdy to throw in rhythm or coach Kyle Shanahan to control the tempo. The Lions can gain an edge here.
X factor: Kerby Joseph, S
Joseph's post range and ability to drive top-down on the ball from Quarters and Cover 2 alignments should play a big part in this game. He had four interceptions this season, and the Lions will need some game-changing plays from their secondary.
How the 49ers can win
Throw the ball out of 21 and 12 personnel on early downs
Shanahan can keep the Lions in base defense to throw the ball on early downs. You'll see standard formations and expanded sets against a Detroit unit that has struggled to limit explosive plays. When facing 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) and 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) during the regular season, the Lions allowed 29 passes of 20 or more yards (sixth most) and a 69.2% completion rate.
So where are the matchups to exploit? I would look inside with running back Christian McCaffrey on option routes out of the backfield, as well as tight end George Kittle on crossers and seams. I think we'll see a heavier mix of Cover 1 and Cover 3 from Detroit here, but we know Shanahan can scheme against single-high given his versatile group of pass-catchers. It's an interesting aspect of the game to watch.
Limit the Lions' run game on the perimeter
The 49ers' defense allowed 5.4 yards per carry on rushes outside the tackles this season, which ranked 20th in the league. The Packers produced there last week in the divisional game, as Aaron Jones rushed for 80 yards -- including two runs of 10 or more yards -- on schemes that hit outside the tackles. The 49ers will see outside zone and counter from the Lions to test the edges.
And since everyone watches the same tape, look for Detroit to borrow from Green Bay, deploying reduced sets and pin/pull tosses to running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The 49ers have to account for the Lions creating extra gaps to test the perimeter, and safety support will be critical in the alleys. They can't get out-leveraged when Detroit pins down inside and pulls. I'm curious how the 49ers will deploy their defensive ends to set an edge.
X factor: Arik Armstead, DE
I would expect 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks to use his loaded fronts and three-man stunts, which will create interior one-on-ones for Armstead. During the regular season, Armstead had five sacks and 20 pressures. He will need to play a disruptive role on Sunday, getting up on the toes of Goff. The Niners can't give him clean platforms to throw.