NFL MVP ballot for 2023 season: Ranking top 100 players

Seth WalderJan 16, 2024, 06:40 AM ET
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I love player awards. But ranking just one player is a little limiting, isn't it? Fortunately, the Associated Press has expanded its NFL MVP ballot to include a top-five ranking. I still want more, however, especially because the NFL MVP award is almost by definition the league's best quarterback every season, which is both correct and kind of boring.

What happens if we expand that list? It means other positions come into play, and we have to tangle with the tension between varying skill levels at positions of differing importance.

That's why I'm unveiling my 100-player MVP ballot for the 2023 season, ranking the 100 most valuable players (check out last year's here). We can all agree on plenty of wide receivers who had a great season, but which players were truly in the top three? What about the top five?

Before we dive into the top 100, a few notes on how I came up with the ranking:

This is a purely descriptive exercise. All that matters is which players generated the most value in the regular season.
The ballot represents my opinion, which is usually heavily influenced by quantitative evidence, such as pass block win rates and our Receiver Tracking Metrics. I factor in All-Pro teams and qualitative information such as Pro Football Focus grades, though, too. I also shared versions of the list with trusted colleagues and NFL team staffers to get feedback, which I consider quite valuable. Crowdsourcing is an important aspect of opinion-building.
To reconcile different positions, I considered how much value a player created over an average starter at his position. This means quarterbacks will dominate the top of the list because they play the position with the most variance, but also that there could be only 16 or so at most in the top 100. Another example is the league's eighth-best offensive tackle is ranked ahead of the third-best running back, because running back value is much more tightly clustered than the value of tackles.

Creating a list like this was a challenge, but it's one of the reasons I like football. There's so much disagreement about the worth and ability of individual players. That's what makes it fun!

Let's dive in, starting with the real most valuable player of 2023.

1. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

The MVP race was murky, but the evidence points to Prescott at No. 1. He finished second in QBR (72.6) and expected points added (EPA) per play and first in points above average.

One number that jumped out to me and speaks to Prescott's accuracy: He led the league in completion percentage over expectation (4.7%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, despite having the league's third-highest receiver drop rate (5.3%). Just 43% of his passing yards came from yards after the catch, which was the fourth-lowest rate among QBR-qualified passers.

Losses in Weeks 15 and 16 likely cost Prescott the actual MVP, but for me, this award should be about a quarterback's play over the entire regular season. Prescott was the guy in 2023.

2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills

Yes, Allen turned the ball over too often. His 18 interceptions and 22 total turnovers were second most in the league behind Washington's Sam Howell. But to view Allen simply through the lens of his negatives is misleading, because his positives are, well, just so positive. In particular, what he does with his legs. Here are the quarterback leaders in total EPA accumulated on designed runs and scrambles:

Allen: 60.2
Justin Fields: 28.8
Patrick Mahomes: 28.6
Lamar Jackson: 27.5
Jalen Hurts: 27.3

One of those numbers is not like the others. While interceptions are the errors that get most of the attention, Allen also limited another type of mistake: sacks. He had the lowest sack rate (3.7%) and sack-to-pressure ratio (12.3%) of any quarterback.

Put it all together and Allen finished third in QBR, behind Brock Purdy and Prescott. Plays in which he ended up passing wouldn't get him there, but the entire picture makes him elite.

3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

This will feel like an insult to Jackson when he probably will win the MVP award. He had an incredible season, ranking fourth in QBR and leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. For me, though, there has to be a good reason for him to overcome the significant QBR and EPA per play deficit he faces compared to Prescott, and I don't see one.

Jackson is getting credit for the Ravens being the 1-seed, and he played a big role in it. But the wins argument rings hollow in part because Baltimore's best unit was its defense -- and the second-best unit was its special teams. Its offense had the league's best starting field position, and that's where the disconnect with the mainstream and EPA partly lies, as defense -- and special teams -- plays a role in points scored even when they aren't the ones actually scoring the points.

4. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

This was no vintage Mahomes season. He finished seventh in QBR as the Chiefs' offense struggled to look like the threatening unit that won them the Super Bowl a year ago. Still, they relied heavily on their star quarterback, posting the league's highest pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And if we look at points above average -- essentially the volume version of QBR -- he ranked fourth.

That was all despite the fact Mahomes was hampered by an incredibly weak group of receivers who dropped his passes at a league-high 6.2% rate. Even including Travis Kelce and the tight ends, the Kansas City receivers amassed a 22 catch score, worst in the league by a mile.

5. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins

The enormity of Hill's season should not be lost on us. He produced the highest yards per route run in a season (4.0) in the history of the dataset, which goes back to 2007. He bested the No. 2 mark -- Steve Smith's 2008 season, when he averaged 3.9 -- and obliterated every other player's season (third best was Hill's 2022 at 3.3).

Hill also led the league in receiving yards, target rate, yards per route run vs. man coverage and touchdown catches.

6. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys

If it weren't for Hill, we'd be talking a lot more about Lamb's incredible season, because his numbers are amazing. He had 1,749 receiving yards -- only 50 shy of Hill -- and led the league in receptions (135). He ranked second to Hill in yards per route run vs. man coverage and second only to Keenan Allen (who played less) in open score (87). The most important player on the Cowboys this season was Prescott, but Lamb was mighty valuable, too.

7. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

I'm as shocked as you are that I -- a firm believer in the vastly diminished value of running backs -- have ranked McCaffrey so high. But his value is undeniable. McCaffrey accumulated 50.7 EPA on his rushes and receptions this season, blowing away every other running back. The 16th-ranked running back in the metric had just 12.7 EPA.

His presence alone helped reduce the amount of zone coverage the 49ers faced, and they smashed defenses when they went up against man coverage; they averaged 0.39 EPA per dropback compared to 0.12 vs. zone, and the splits were even stronger if we only include plays in which McCaffrey was on the field.

8. Micah Parsons, Edge, Cowboys

Parsons was simply amazing at disrupting the quarterback. His 35.4% pass rush win rate broke the record for the metric's history (since 2017), beating Joey Bosa's 33.7% in 2017. He had a 54.2% pass rush win rate when single-teamed (again, the highest in the league). It was with volume, too, as his 105 pass-rush wins were the most in the metric's history and 21 more than Myles Garrett this season.

Pressures told a similar story. Parsons had 14 sacks and led the league in pressure rate at 17%, though he trailed Maxx Crosby by a couple of total pressures. Oh, and he did this all while being double-teamed at the highest rate while playing edge (35%) of any player in the league.

9. Myles Garrett, Edge, Browns

Garrett led the NFL's best defense this season -- and one of the best we've seen in recent years. Cleveland's minus-0.11 EPA per play allowed was the best by any team since the 2019 Patriots. Garrett was the key cog, as he had 14 sacks, four forced fumbles and a 31% pass rush win rate at edge that was second only to Parsons.

What separates the two elite edge rushers? Not much. Parsons had more down-to-down disruption and quite a few more pass-rush wins and pressures. Garrett, however, brought it in the turnover department with three more forced fumbles than Parsons, and he was a better run defender. In the end, I lean toward Parsons, but I wouldn't fault anyone for making the argument the other way.

10. Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Purdy might be the toughest player on this list to rank. There are valid arguments for him at No. 1 and also for placing him well outside the top 10, and there's no perfect science to settle the debate. Here are the facts: He led the NFL in QBR and EPA per play while quarterbacking the league's best offense. He also had more support than any other passer, with an unbelievable set of targets to catch his throws, an exceptional running game and the best offensive scheme in the sport. It's hard to quantify and feels handwave-y to try, but it's also naive to ignore it.

With Jimmy Garoppolo on the field in 2021-22, the 49ers accrued 0.17 EPA per dropback. With Purdy this season, they leveled up to 0.26, an improvement of 0.09 EPA per play. That's good, for sure, but is it a special improvement? That's not totally clear, particularly because Garoppolo was poor in seven games in Las Vegas this season, as the Raiders averaged minus-.04 EPA per dropback when he was on the field. There's no perfect comparison.

The difference in EPA per dropback between the Cowboys with Cooper Rush over the past two seasons and Prescott this season is 0.21. Tyler Huntley to Jackson in Baltimore is 0.15. Perhaps it can be written off that those quarterbacks aren't as good as Garoppolo. Ultimately, Purdy was an asset to the 49ers this season. He was a valuable player ... but not the most valuable player.

11. Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams

12. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans

13. T.J. Watt, Edge, Steelers

14. Maxx Crosby, Edge, Raiders

Crosby's superpower is simply how much he's on the field. He doesn't have the pass rush win rate (just 18%) of other edge rushers at the top of this list, but he's a very good run defender, as he led the NFL in run stop win rate at edge. That's valuable in and of itself, and it also means he rarely comes off the field.

Crosby played 95% of the Raiders' defensive snaps, more than any other edge rusher on this list by a healthy margin. As a result, he still had the fourth-most total pass rush wins and led the league in pressures.

15. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers

Aiyuk's value was clearly undervalued, as he wasn't even selected to the Pro Bowl. His contribution is undeniable, though, as his 3.3 yards per route run ranked sixth in any receiver's season since 2007.

Player tracking metrics back up Aiyuk's high level of play. He was the top-scoring player in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics, including a 99 catch score (best possible) and an 86 open score, which ranked third best among pass-catchers this season.

16. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Buccaneers

Safeties are the hardest position in football to quantify, but in the case of Winfield, his production makes his value obvious. The Pro Bowl snub had three interceptions, six sacks, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries. On top of that, he led all defensive backs with at least 50 qualifying plays in run stop win rate (41%).

17. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles

18. Jared Goff, QB, Lions

19. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

20. Trent Williams, OT, 49ers

On/off splits in football are noisy, but it's hard not to notice that in the two games Williams missed this season, the 49ers lost (to the Vikings and Bengals), and the offense performed at a level that was 0.22 EPA per play higher with him on the field compared to without.

Then there's this: The 49ers' runs outside the left tackle with Williams on the field generated 8.1 yards per carry (!), while their outside right tackle runs averaged 5.3 yards.

21. Fred Warner, LB, 49ers

22. Nico Collins, WR, Texans

Remember that stat about Aiyuk posting the sixth-best yards per route run season since 2007? Guess who was No. 5? That's right, it's Collins' 2023 season (3.3). The advanced metrics also loved his performance, as he finished second only to Aiyuk in catch score and second only to Deebo Samuel in YAC score.

With C.J. Stroud, Collins and Tank Dell together going forward, the Houston offense has a scary good future.

23. Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens

24. Roquan Smith, LB, Ravens

25. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

26. Sauce Gardner, CB, Jets

Gardner excelled at preventing targets -- his 13% target rate was third best among outside corners -- and he ranked second to Johnson in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

While we don't have individual open scores for defensive backs, we have team-level open scores, and the Jets ranked first by far (81) in the category. It's a reflection of the rest of their secondary, too, but that number is another sign that Gardner is a stellar player.

27. Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

28. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers

29. Jessie Bates III, S, Falcons

30. Lane Johnson, OT, Eagles

31. DJ Moore, WR, Bears

32. Nick Bosa, Edge, 49ers

33. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions

34. Jordan Love, QB, Packers

35 George Kittle, TE, 49ers

36. Jaylon Johnson, CB, Bears

Part of being a good corner is deterring targets. Johnson does just that, with a 13% target rate, well below the 18% average for the position. The result: he allowed just 0.6 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the best mark by an outside corner with at least 250 coverage snaps.

The only knock on Johnson is that the Chicago defense played zone coverage two-thirds of the time.

37. Penei Sewell, OT, Lions

38. Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs

39. Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals

40. Jason Kelce, C, Eagles

The advanced metrics were big fans of Kelce's season, per usual, as he ranked fourth in pass block win rate and first in run stop win rate among centers. With this rank, I'm also giving him a tush-push boost. The fact that the Eagles were able to convert 28 third and fourth downs with 1 yard to go via a quarterback rush -- for a 93% conversion rate (and 100% on fourth down) -- was a serious advantage for their offense.

41. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams

42. Patrick Surtain II, CB, Broncos

43. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

44. DaRon Bland, CB, Cowboys

45. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets

After sharing my initial list with a few trusted sources and colleagues to get feedback, multiple NFL team staffers independently noted I was severely underrating Wilson and that he had been one of the best wide receivers in the league. It's just that his play was shrouded by the misery that was the Jets' offense.

When I looked closer, we had quantitative evidence to back up what they were seeing, too. Wilson ranked sixth in open score (83), the most important of the three receiver tracking metrics. If a receiver does his job and gets open, that's value -- even if Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle don't throw him the ball.

46. Tyron Smith, OT, Cowboys

47. Amari Cooper, WR, Browns

48. L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Chiefs

Sneed was the most-targeted corner in the NFL in 2022. This season, he was simply one of the best. He was still targeted at a higher than average 19% rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, but he allowed a much better-than-average 1.0 yards per coverage snap and allowed minus-30 EPA on those targets, which was third best among outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps.

49. Dexter Lawrence II, DT, Giants

50. Denzel Ward, CB, Browns

51. Bradley Chubb, Edge, Dolphins

52. Garett Bolles, OT, Broncos

53. DeForest Buckner, DT, Colts

54. Josh Allen, Edge, Jaguars

55. Brian O'Neill, OT, Vikings

56. Justin Madubuike, DT, Ravens

57. Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Texans

Anderson's seven sacks don't jump off the page, but his advanced numbers do. His 26% pass rush win rate at edge ranked third in the league, behind Parsons and Garrett. That's a tremendous impact for a rookie. He and Jonathan Greenard made a fierce pass-rushing duo for first-year coach DeMeco Ryans.

Anderson was strong against the run, too, as he ranked second in run stop win rate among edge defenders.

58. Darious Williams, CB, Jaguars

59. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

60. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Buccaneers

61. Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Lions

62. Dion Dawkins, OT, Bills

63. Quinnen Williams, DT, Jets

64. Joe Thuney, G, Chiefs

While much of the Kansas City offense was a disappointment, one part that clearly was not was the interior offensive line. Thuney was a stalwart again in pass protection, leading all guards in pass block win rate at the position (99%) ... just like he did in 2022 and 2021.

65. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Texans

66. Khalil Mack, Edge, Chargers

67. Rasul Douglas, CB, Bills

68. Landon Dickerson, G, Eagles

69. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals

70. Danielle Hunter, Edge, Vikings

71. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

72. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars

73. Alex Highsmith, Edge, Steelers

74. Derrick Brown, DT, Panthers

Brown was one of the few bright spots in Carolina. In terms of run-stopping, he blew away our metrics, ranking first in run stop win rate among interior defenders and first among all players in total run stop wins with 176. For context, Bobby Wagner finished second in the category and had just 146.

75. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Dolphins

76. Quincy Williams, LB, Jets

77. Chris Lindstrom, G, Falcons

78. Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys

The numbers were gaudier before two missed field goals in Week 18 (one blocked), but even with those misses, Aubrey was the NFL's best kicker. He recorded 7.2 made field goals over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the most of any kicker, and he went 10-of-10 from 50-plus yards.

79. Jadeveon Clowney, Edge, Ravens

80. Jordan Mailata, OT, Eagles

81. Breece Hall, RB, Jets

Despite playing in a nonfunctional offense, Hall managed to finish second among running backs in total yards (rushing plus receiving) with 1,585. He also recorded 146 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, more than backs who might have been considered here, such as Raheem Mostert, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco or Derrick Henry.

82. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, Texans

83. Demario Davis, LB, Saints

84. Taron Johnson, CB, Bills

Johnson allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the lowest by all slot corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. On top of that, he added three forced fumbles and had minus-9 EPA when he was the nearest defender in coverage.

85. Zack Martin, G, Cowboys

86. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Vikings

87. Creed Humphrey, C, Chiefs

88. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings

89. Montez Sweat, Edge, Bears

90. Josh Metellus, S, Vikings

91. T.J. Edwards, LB, Bears

Edwards led the NFL in an old-school advanced metric called "plus-EPA," which credits all players who tallied tackles, interceptions, pass deflections and quarterback hits with the EPA on a positive play for the defense. At minus-71, he ranked just ahead of Winfield (minus-67).

It's a metric naturally slanted toward off-ball linebackers and comes with plenty of noise, but it says something about Edwards' ability to make an impact on Chicago's defense. In a related number, he was fourth best in targeted EPA allowed (minus-15) among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and had three interceptions.