Something weird always happens. I say this on TV and they laugh at me, but the NFC East is the zaniest of NFL divisions. It has been 19 years since anyone repeated as its champion, and the events of Week 17 have created a situation that could very well extend that streak to 20.
It makes no sense that the Eagles wouldn't win the NFC East this season. At one point, they were 10-1, with a head-to-head victory over their closest pursuers, the Cowboys. As late as the fourth quarter of their game against the Cardinals on Sunday, they still had control of the situation. Hold that fourth-quarter lead against the then-3-12 Cardinals, then win next week against the 5-11 Giants, and you break the streak to repeat as division champs. This was not a difficult-looking assignment.
But they did not hold the lead. Kyler Murray, James Conner and the Cardinals went right down the field on them in the final minutes to score the winning touchdown. And now all the Cowboys have to do to win the NFC East is beat the 4-12 Commanders next week. It makes no sense, especially when you consider everything that had to happen at the end of Saturday night's Lions-Cowboys game to bring about this situation. But it's the NFC East. It isn't supposed to make sense. It's just supposed to do the opposite of what you expect. That's what makes it so much fun.
Let's start there for this week's overreactions column -- where we judge potential takeaways from Week 17 games -- since there's a lot to unpack.
Jump to:
Cowboys will win the NFC East?
Jackson already won the MVP?
Bears will trade the No. 1 pick?
Chiefs can make a playoff run?
Bucs will lose the NFC South?
The Cowboys are going to win the NFC East and be the NFC's No. 2 seed
I already addressed the Eagles part of this, but the Cowboys also had to beat the Lions on Saturday night to reach the point where this ended up in their control. Beat the Lions they did, but it happened in one of the most bizarre endings we've seen this season.
Lions coach Dan Campbell had to elect, at least four times, to go for a two-point conversion after the final touchdown instead of kicking the game-tying extra point and sending the game into overtime. And the officials had to completely botch the play that would have won the game for the Lions, mistaking which offensive lineman the Lions were announcing as eligible and flagging Taylor Decker for illegal touching after he thought he'd won the game with a two-point catch.
As soon as that game ended with the Cowboys improbably on top, I thought, "Oh man. The Cardinals are going to beat the Eagles in a Jonathan Gannon revenge game tomorrow, aren't they?" And that's exactly what they did. Something weird always happens!
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I mean, come on. If the Cowboys can't beat the Commanders next week, they don't deserve to win the division. Yes, the game is in Washington, and the Cowboys are 3-5 on the road this season. Yes, the Commanders made the 49ers work a little harder than we might have expected them to Sunday. But they have nothing to play for, they don't know who's playing quarterback and everybody you talk to expects the coach to get fired the next day.
The Cowboys would have signed up for this exact scenario back in August. They should be able to take care of business. And by the way, the way the Eagles are playing, can we be sure they won't lose to the Giants next week?
Lamar Jackson locked up his second MVP award Sunday
Six days after upsetting the 49ers in San Francisco, the Ravens absolutely destroyed the Dolphins 56-19 on Sunday. Jackson had a game reminiscent of his 2019 MVP season: 18-for-21 passing for 321 yards and five touchdown passes, plus another ho-hum 35 yards on the ground. The performance was so dominant that the Ravens put backup Tyler Huntley in to throw their sixth and final touchdown pass of the game.
So in a span of one week, Jackson's Ravens beat the No. 1 team in the NFC in its building and dismantled the No. 2 team in the AFC. Sunday's win locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs for the Ravens, so they'll get a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the AFC Championship Game. Jackson left the field to chants of "MVP! MVP!" and he might have just had the week that clinched it.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION
You can make a strong case that there is no player in the league more central and vital to what his team does than Jackson. The extent to which he has embraced and mastered the new offense under first-year coordinator Todd Monken is admirable. Teammates and coaches say he has elevated his leadership qualities to new heights this season.
Sure, he doesn't have the same kind of numbers as the other top-candidate quarterbacks. At the conclusion of the Ravens' Week 17 game, Jackson was tied for 10th in passing TDs (24) and ranked 13th in passing yardage (3,678). Per ESPN Stats & Information, only two QBs have ever won MVP while finishing outside the top five in both categories (Steve McNair in 2003 and Bart Starr in 1966), and none won while ranking outside the top 10 in each.
But none of the other top candidates have run away and made this thing academic. If Jackson's top competitors for the award include Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa ... well, he just beat all those guys pretty convincingly the past couple of weeks, didn't he? The Ravens look like the league's best team, and the quarterback on the best team is always going to be a leading candidate for MVP. Given everything Jackson means to the Ravens, and the way he (and they) have played in the critical part of the season, I don't think it would shock anyone if he has this locked up already.
The Bears will trade the No. 1 pick again
Remember that the Bears had the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft as a result of having the league's worst record in 2022. They don't have the league's worst record this year, but the pick they got from the Panthers when they traded away the No. 1 pick in March is also going to be No. 1. Carolina's loss to Jacksonville Sunday clinched that.
For the second year in a row, the Bears now have to decide whether to commit to current QB Justin Fields and trade away the No. 1 pick to a team that wants to move up for USC's Caleb Williams, or stay put and draft Williams (which likely means trading Fields). In 2023, they decided to stick with Fields instead of taking Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. The picks they got from Carolina -- along with star wide receiver DJ Moore -- position them to rebuild quickly around Fields if they so choose.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I do not know what the Bears will ultimately do in the lead-up to the draft. Fields has played well down the stretch, as the Bears appear to have rallied around embattled coach Matt Eberflus, possibly even saving Eberflus' job. Trading away the top pick, amassing more picks and using them to build around Fields is a legitimate option. Some might even say it's their best one.
But it's not that simple. This is Fields' third NFL season, which means next offseason he'll be eligible for a contract extension for the first time. The Bears must decide by the first week of May whether to exercise Fields' fifth-year option for 2025. If they decide to keep Fields, they will -- whether it's next offseason or the one after -- reckon with the contract. Keeping him almost certainly means extending him at more than $40 million per year.
Drafting Williams (or North Carolina's Drake Maye or whoever) would allow them to reset the financials at the quarterback position. The new quarterback wouldn't be eligible for an extension until the 2027 offseason, and the fifth-year option would be for 2029. That's a half-decade of cost certainty and bargain pricing at the most important position, and whatever they got for Fields in this hypothetical scenario could help accelerate the building process around the rookie. If the Bears' evaluation of Williams (or Maye or whoever) is that he's a transformational franchise quarterback, they have to use that pick to select him and move on from Fields. We don't know what the Bears' front office will ultimately decide about the top QBs in the class, but we do know this regime wasn't in place when the team drafted Fields in 2021.
All of the Chiefs' problems are solved, and they'll be just fine for the playoffs
Bengals-Chiefs wasn't the game we expected it to be when the schedule came out in the spring. Joe Burrow's right wrist injury just about eradicated Cincinnati's playoff hopes, and while the Bengals and Jake Browning were in this one -- they led into the fourth quarter! -- the Chiefs' pass rush ultimately was too much for Browning, who took six sacks in a 25-17 loss.
With the win, the Chiefs claimed their eighth consecutive division title and locked themselves into the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff field. No bye this year, and there's a chance they would have to win two road games to get to the Super Bowl. But they'll host a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in two weeks, and they still have Patrick Mahomes. Plus, Sunday was a nice rebound from their Christmas debacle against the Raiders.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Look, I'm never going to rule Mahomes out until I see the final scoreboard. And the Chiefs did look a lot better Sunday than they did on Christmas. But, (a) that's not saying much, and (b) they scored one touchdown! Harrison Butker won a lot of people their fantasy football title games with a six-field goal day, and it's great for the Chiefs that he came through time and again. But the fact that he had to meant the Chiefs weren't getting into the end zone.
Their first offensive possession of the game was a crisp, sharp-looking 75-yard touchdown drive that resulted in a Mahomes touchdown pass to running back Isiah Pacheco. They leaned on Pacheco all night, to the tune of 130 rushing yards on 18 carries and seven receptions for 35 more yards. They hit some big pass plays to rookie receiver Rashee Rice, too. They did what they needed to do to beat a Bengals team that entered the day with some slim playoff hopes but was, frankly, overmatched.
The offense definitely looked better Sunday, but it's going to have to be a lot more effective than it was in this one once the opponents are Buffalo, Miami or Baltimore.
The Buccaneers are going to blow the NFC South title
Every team in the NFC South had a losing record last season, and the division is in danger of producing a sub-.500 champion for the second year in a row. The Bucs could have avoided all of this Sunday with a home victory over the Saints -- a team they beat soundly in New Orleans in Week 4. Tampa Bay came in on a four-game win streak and looked like the one consistently competent team in the division. Then it laid an egg, falling behind 20-0 and not scoring until the fourth quarter in what turned out to be a 23-13 loss.
Now if the Bucs lose next week against Carolina, the Saints can claim the division title with a victory over the Falcons, and the Falcons could actually force a three-way tie and win the division on tiebreakers with an 8-9 record by beating the Saints. It's a mess, and it didn't have to be this way. The Bucs had it all in their hands.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It's an overreaction because they still have it all in their hands! All the Bucs have to do next week is beat the woeful, checked-out, drink-throwing-owner 2-14 Panthers, and they'll be a respectable 9-8 division champion. I don't know what to make of the Saints, who have to rank among the season's most disappointing teams, but they definitely seemed to remember Week 4 and get up for Sunday. But would you be surprised at all if Atlanta beat them next week?
Tampa Bay has been the most consistent team in this division all season (no, that's not saying much), and I would say there's a very strong chance the Bucs get it together and beat the worst team in the league next week to claim a third straight division crown.