Concerning trends for 14 NFL teams on playoff race bubble

Add in the game against the Rams two weeks ago, and Flacco has a 41.5 QBR this season. Last season, he had a 36.1 QBR on almost 200 pass attempts with the Jets. And he had a QBR of 51 or lower in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Flacco leading the Browns deep into the playoffs while turning 39 in January would be an awesome story, but recent history shows that he's not going to play like an average NFL starting quarterback, let alone an above-average one.

Buffalo Bills

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 47.5%
FPI chances to win the AFC East: 23.7%

Concerning weakness: Poor defense against deep passes

The Bills have had a real problem defending deep passes. They rank 29th in DVOA on passes that go at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, compared to ninth on passes of 15 air yards or shorter. This is the second year in a row the Bills have had these issues, but things are a lot worse in 2023 than in 2022, when they were fourth in DVOA on shorter passes but 15th on deep passes.

Buffalo has one of the league's better defenses against passes in the deep middle of the field, although it's a tiny sample. Where the Bills really struggle is against the more common deep passes on the outside. They allow a completion rate of 61% on these passes, and only Arizona (63%) has allowed a higher rate. It's a bit surprising because of the quality safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, but cornerbacks are getting beat on the outside, and Poyer or Hyde aren't necessarily there to stop the completions.

This is a real problem for Buffalo when you consider the rest of the schedule. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is second in the NFL in DVOA on deep passes, and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is third. The Bills play both the Cowboys and the Dolphins over the next month. Buffalo has to win one of these games and really wants to win both of them. The team's odds of making the postseason go from 3.3% if it finishes 2-2 to 64.5% if it finishes 3-1 -- and then 99.8% if it closes at 4-0.

Denver Broncos

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 44.1%
FPI chances to win the AFC West: 6.5%

Concerning weakness: Struggles in base defense

The Broncos are not a good defense if you can force them to put more defensive linemen and linebackers on the field. When they are in base -- in other words, four defensive backs instead of five or six -- the Broncos rank 31st in defensive DVOA.

Of course, all of the Denver defensive stats need to be split into "Weeks 1-5" and "life after Week 6" because its defense has had such a tremendous turnaround after a horrifying start. However, this is one defensive split that hasn't changed very much. Even since Week 6, the Broncos allow a 14.3% DVOA when they are in base defense, 28th in the NFL. They allow 5.8 yards per play when the average against base defense is 5.1.

Denver's main base defense is a 3-4-4 with three linemen and four linebackers (two on the edge, two inside). The weakness appears to be using three down linemen, because since Week 6, the Broncos are a bit better in a 2-4-5 setup than they are in a 3-3-5 setup. Zach Allen plays 82% of snaps for the Broncos, so he's not the issue. Then they rotate Jonathan Harris (50%), D.J. Jones (48%) and Mike Purcell (38%) as the second and/or third linemen. When the Broncos use just one inside linebacker, Josey Jewell usually comes off the field while Alex Singleton stays out there.

Most of the Broncos' remaining opponents will use a lot of two-tight end personnel that might require the Broncos to remain in base defense. The Lions have faced a lot of base defense, but Chargers and Patriots opponents have countered the 12 personnel more often with nickel packages. Las Vegas, the Week 18 opponent, plays some 12 personnel -- but also some 21 personnel with a fullback that the Broncos will probably have to match with three linebackers.

Houston Texans

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 44.1%
FPI chances to win the AFC South: 8.0%

Concerning weakness: Difficulty running the ball

Passing is more important than running in the modern NFL, but it's still good to have a quality running game to put your quarterback in advantageous down-and-distance situations. The Texans don't have that.

Houston ranks 28th in run offense DVOA. Dameon Pierce ranks last among qualifying running backs in my DYAR stat representing total value and is second-to-last in the NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per carry. He has struggled with injuries and lost his starting job to veteran Devin Singletary, who ranks 30th in DYAR.

The Texans' trouble starts right off the bat, as they rank 28th in DVOA running on first downs. But things are worse when Houston needs the yards the most, as the Texans rank last in converting short-yardage runs (third down, fourth down or a goal-line play with 1-2 yards to go).

Blocking is a big part of the issue, as the Texans rank 26th in run block win rate. Veteran right tackle George Fant is a particular problem, with a 67.3% RBWR that ranks fifth from the bottom among qualifying tackles. (The NFL average for tackles is 74.0%.)

Quarterback C.J. Stroud is the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite not having a good running game to help him. But if Stroud has to spend a week or two in the concussion protocol, it's going to be hard for backup Davis Mills to overcome the problematic Houston ground attack.

Indianapolis Colts

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 40.1%
FPI chances to win the AFC South: 7.3%

Concerning weakness: Poor pass protection

Despite some well-known names on the offensive line, the Colts rank 27th in pass block win rate. The biggest weaknesses are the tackles. Bernhard Raimann at left tackle ranks 61st out of 71 qualifying tackles. Blake Freeland, who has been subbing for the injured Braden Smith at right tackle, ranks 69th. Guards Quenton Nelson and Will Fries are relatively average, but in Nelson's case that's a surprise because he has been so good in the past. Center Ryan Kelly is the one OL starter in Indianapolis with an above-average RBWR, registering 12th at his position.

The good news for the Colts is that quarterback Gardner Minshew has been reasonably good at avoiding sacks this season. The Colts are 12th in adjusted sack rate on offense with only 30 sacks. And Minshew ranks the same in QBR when facing pressure as he does without any pressure: 13th.

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Pittsburgh Steelers

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 31.2%
FPI chances to win the AFC North: 1.6%

Concerning weakness: Slow starts

The Steelers have spent the entire 2023 season falling behind. Sure, sometimes they come back for a close victory at the end. But in the past two weeks, the Steelers started slow against a couple of bad teams in Arizona and New England, and they couldn't come back.

They have been outscored by 36 points in the first quarter (28th) and 35 points in the second quarter (25th). Then they have outscored opponents by 31 points in the second half.

You can see this split in DVOA as well, showing that it's a problem on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in offensive DVOA in the first quarter, which improves to 15th in the second quarter and a surprising fifth after halftime. On defense, the Steelers go from 18th in DVOA before halftime to third after halftime. A fast start and early lead allow you to dictate the pace of the game, and the Steelers can't constantly depend on late-game heroics.

The good news for the Steelers is that quarter-by-quarter splits in performance aren't particularly predictive. We shouldn't necessarily expect Pittsburgh's first-quarter/first-half problems to continue. However, that also means we can't necessarily expect the Steelers to keep playing well in the second half. No matter how you look at it, they're going to need to play better overall to make it to the postseason.

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Cincinnati Bengals

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 23.4%
FPI chances to win the AFC North: 0.1%

Concerning weakness: Poor pass protection

The Bengals have not had good pass protection at all. They currently rank 31st in pass block win rate. The tackles have both been below average, but the real problems are on the interior. Cordell Volson ranks 62nd among 66 qualifying guards, while Alex Cappa ranks 63rd. Center Ted Karras is close to average.

The pass protection was less of an issue when Joe Burrow was healthy because he gets the ball out fast enough to avoid sacks. That's not the case with Jake Browning, who is taking more sacks. Cincinnati's adjusted sack rate went from 5.9% with Burrow (which would rank fifth in the NFL) to 8.3% with Browning (which would rank 24th).

NFC

Minnesota Vikings

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 63.1%
FPI chances to win the NFC North: 13.1%

Concerning weakness: Shaky quarterback situation

The problem with backup quarterbacks who star when they first take the field is that they often regress after a couple of unexpectedly good starts. That's what has happened with Joshua Dobbs of the Vikings. His season-long QBR with Minnesota is now the same as it was with Arizona: 51.9. Dobbs has a QBR below 20 in his past two starts and was benched in the fourth quarter of last week's game against Las Vegas.

Nick Mullens is next in line and set to start in Week 15. The last time we saw extended action from Mullens was 2020, and he had a 36.3 QBR for the 49ers. It's hard to be that bad in the Kyle Shanahan offense. The Vikings could also eventually go with Jaren Hall, who has recovered from a concussion suffered in his first start back in Week 9 -- but how much can you expect from a fifth-round rookie starting quarterback?

The Vikings' defense, now up to fifth in DVOA, could make them dangerous in the playoffs -- but only if they can get passable quarterback play to reignite the offense.

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Green Bay Packers

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 48.5%
FPI chances to win the NFC North: 2.9%

Concerning weakness: Jordan Love's struggles against the blitz

Love has struggled with pass pressure in his first season as the Green Bay starting quarterback, and in particular with blitzes. When opponents do not blitz, the Packers have 6.6 net yards per pass play with 31.0% DVOA. When opponents blitz, that drops to 5.7 net yards per pass play with 10.9% DVOA.

The bad news for the Packers is that three of their final four opponents rank in the top five for blitz rate on defense: Vikings (first), Buccaneers (third) and Panthers (fifth).

The good news for the Packers is that Love seemed to reverse this trend against the Giants, despite losing the game. On Monday night, Love had 1.6 net yards per pass against a standard pass rush but managed 8.2 net yards per pass when the Giants sent five or more pass-rushers. That includes the go-ahead touchdown pass near the end of the game on a big blitz when the Giants sent eight guys after Love.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 43.0%
FPI chances to win the NFC South: 34.8%

Concerning weakness: Difficulty running the ball

Running back Rachaad White has had a better-than-expected fantasy football year, but the big bonus there comes with his receiving numbers. Only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey have more receiving yards than White. As a runner, though, White has left yardage on the field. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in run offense DVOA as a team, and NFL Next Gen Stats lists White with a minus-0.44 yards over expected per carry, tied for fourth lowest in the NFL.

But the problem isn't all White. The Buccaneers rank 29th in adjusted line yards and dead last in run block win rate. The well-regarded left tackle Tristan Wirfs has a RBWR of 68.5%, much lower than the NFL average of 74.0% for tackles. Left guard Aaron Stinnie is also below average, and center Robert Hainsey is second-to-last among qualifying centers with a 60.4% RBWR (compared to the center average of 68.8%).

However, three of their remaining four opponents -- the three NFC opponents, who mean more for tiebreakers -- have poor run defenses. Green Bay ranks 25th in run defense DVOA, New Orleans is 24th and Carolina is last. So the Buccaneers might be able to get the run game going after all, putting quarterback Baker Mayfield in down-and-distances where he can be more successful and lead the Bucs to a surprise NFC South title.

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Los Angeles Rams

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 41.4%
FPI chances to win the NFC West: 0.1%

Concerning weakness: Matthew Stafford's struggles against the blitz

On pass plays without a blitz, Stafford is averaging 6.9 net yards per pass play with 39.3% offensive DVOA. On pass plays with a blitz, he is averaging 5.6 net yards per pass play with a 0.0% offensive DVOA.

Now, this is not a problem Stafford has consistently had in the past. Last season, for example, he had the same DVOA with and without a blitz. And in 2021, Stafford was better against the blitz than he was against a standard four-man pass rush. So that points to a potential turnaround.

The Rams' remaining schedule has a mix of blitz rates. Their next two opponents -- Washington and New Orleans -- are closer to the NFL average in blitz rate. Wink Martindale's Giants are near the top of the league in blitz rate on defense, while the 49ers (Week 18 opponent) are near the bottom. But given their personnel on the defensive line, the 49ers don't really need to blitz to bring pass pressure.

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New Orleans Saints

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 39.3%
FPI chances to win the NFC South: 32.7%

Concerning weakness: Lack of a pass rush

The biggest concern for the Saints is getting to the opposing quarterback. The Saints are 30th in adjusted sack rate and dead last in pass rush win rate. What's interesting is that they are getting pressure over time. They just aren't getting there with pass-rush wins or sacks. The Saints rank ninth in pressure rate at 32.3% but also allow quarterbacks a league-worst average time in pocket of 2.65 seconds. The "pressure" may be the result of coverage rather than the defensive front getting it done.

The biggest weakness seems to be an off year for the usually dependable Cameron Jordan. While Carl Granderson has 6.5 sacks and is 32nd out of 50 ranked edge rushers in PRWR, Jordan has 2.0 sacks and ranks 44th among those ranked edge rushers with a PRWR of 8.9%. The defensive tackles -- Nathan Shepherd and rookie Bryan Bresee -- are fairly average in this department.

The Saints rank ninth in pass defense DVOA, so the secondary and linebackers are doing their jobs. But they need some help up front if they want to reach the postseason.

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Atlanta Falcons

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 37.0%
FPI chances to win the NFC South: 32.6%

Concerning weakness: Lack of a pass rush

Much like their division rivals in New Orleans, the Falcons have a major problem getting to the opposing quarterback. But unlike the Saints, the Falcons are not making up for it with good coverage. The Falcons rank 30th in overall pass defense DVOA. They are 28th in adjusted sack rate and 31st in pass rush win rate. And they allow an average time in the pocket of 2.57 seconds (29th).

Bud Dupree is the big disappointment on the Atlanta pass rush. He has 5.0 sacks but ranks 49th among 50 qualifying edge rushers with a PRWR of just 6.0%. On the other side, Arnold Ebiketie is a little bit above average at 15.5%.

On the interior, the Falcons really miss the injured Grady Jarrett. They are getting good performance from David Onyemata, but Kentavius Street has a PRWR of 1.1%. And Calais Campbell has an interesting statistical footprint. As an interior defender, he has very low PRWR numbers -- but he's average when bumped to the edge.

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Seattle Seahawks

FPI chances to make the playoffs: 25.7%
FPI chances to win the NFC West: 0.1%

Concerning weakness: Offensive struggles in the red zone and on third down

Seattle has a very average offense. It ranks 14th in offensive DVOA -- but the Seahawks tend to have problems in the most important situations.

Once the Seahawks get into the red zone, they drop to the No. 30 offense and No. 31 in running the ball. Only Minnesota is worse in the latter area. Quarterback Geno Smith needs to get the ball out of his hands when the Seahawks are near the goal line, too, as they rank 28th in adjusted sack rate allowed in the red zone.

Third down is also a problem. Seattle has the fourth-best offense in the league on first down. That drops to 16th on second down. But then the Seahawks rank 28th on third and fourth down. The biggest issue is third-and-medium (3-6 yards to go), where the Seahawks have a terrible minus-53.7% offensive DVOA. A better performance from rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba would help; he has a conversion rate of just 29% when he is targeted on third down.