NFL Week 15 latest buzz, upset picks, coaching hot seats

Jeremy Fowler
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Jeremy Fowler
senior NFL national reporter
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Dan Graziano
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Dan Graziano
senior NFL national reporter
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Dec 13, 2023, 06:55 AM ET

Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.

This week, we're focusing on coaching situations around the league, with the latest on three of the hottest seats (Commanders, Patriots and Chargers). Plus we'll look at a few wild-card coaching carousel teams that could make surprise changes after the season, as well as some of the top under-the-radar candidates to fill openings. It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 15.

What's the latest on Ron Rivera and the Commanders, perhaps the league's hottest coaching seat?

Fowler: This one is a relatively easy call, Dan. The expectation here is Rivera will be out after four seasons, and front-office changes could be on the way, too. I'm told Rivera is at peace with his Washington tenure, and that people in the building are openly bracing for major changes. Owner Josh Harris has developed a good working relationship with Rivera since taking over the franchise in June, but four consecutive losing seasons is next to impossible for a coach to survive, even one with Rivera's stature. Harris will most likely be looking for a sustainable partnership built on quality leadership, and his track record as owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils suggests he'll value a blend of analytics and on-field acumen in a coach-general manager pairing.

Graziano: Yeah, my understanding is Rivera will get to coach out the season, but then changes are likely, with him and GM Martin Mayhew both in danger of being replaced by new ownership. What I'm curious about here is whether offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can get a serious look, be it in Washington or with one of these other potential openings. Are you hearing anything on Bieniemy and his chances this cycle? It seems the way Sam Howell has played in his first season as a starting QB is a point in Bieniemy's favor.

Fowler: Well, I do expect Bieniemy to get interviews once again. He has shown he can help a young quarterback develop and design an offense independent of Chiefs coach Andy Reid. Those are positives. His unapologetic coaching style definitely isn't for everyone, but Washington also needed a culture shakeup, and Bieniemy tried to provide that. Perhaps he gets a look in Washington as the in-house candidate. Overall, he'll be a player in the carousel, but whether he's a major factor at this point remains in question.

And could the Patriots move on from legendary coach Bill Belichick?

Graziano: Anything can happen, and ownership could definitely decide to stand by a franchise icon even after his worst season. But from what I can discern, the strong likelihood is someone besides Belichick will be coaching the Patriots in 2024. How the Patriots manage the exit will be worth watching, too. I can't imagine it'll be a traditional "firing." Any announcement will likely be presented as a celebration and appreciation of the six-time Super Bowl champion's career there.

People around the league are also watching to see whether the Patriots might trade Belichick, assuming he wants to keep coaching and he and another team have mutual interest. And because Belichick has had final say on personnel for more than 20 years in New England, the Pats would also need to hire a GM if they move on from him. So there are a lot of complicated issues surrounding this one. But yes, I do think the Pats will make a change at season's end.

Fowler: Yeah, Dan, this seems over, assuming the two sides can part amicably. It is unlikely that owner Robert Kraft wants "I fired Bill Belichick" on his résumé, unless it absolutely must come to that. The fact that Belichick is under contract makes a trade plausible, but a prospective team needs to be all-in on the Belichick experience: the methods, the style and likely the personnel control. Fit will be key. I don't see him in Carolina, for example. The Panthers could very well target a young offensive coach. At this stage, Belichick can be selective.

And there's an underlying issue: Would Belichick, 71, be a hot candidate? NFL people are torn on that, though some see an Andy Reid on the Chiefs type of impact if Belichick lands the right quarterback and roster makeup.

Graziano: I agree there's a chance Belichick doesn't have the market his accomplishments might suggest. But it takes only one team, and the one I have my eye on for him is the Chargers. It's going to be a popular job, assuming it comes open, because of the opportunity it offers to coach a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. If Belichick's goal is to catch Don Shula in all-time wins, he could envision that being possible in two seasons with Herbert and the rest of the Chargers' roster. And as a team that keeps looking for ways to generate fan excitement in the Los Angeles market, I wonder if the Chargers would be attracted to the possible attention that would come with a big splash hire.

Fowler: Belichick and the Chargers is definitely a concept people around the league are at least watching and considering. And as for New England, it wouldn't surprise me if Kraft leaned into the Patriot Way with a familiar face -- Jerod Mayo as the top in-house candidate. Despite the team's recent struggles, the formula worked for a long time, and I'm not sure sweeping changes are necessary.

Is there a change coming for Brandon Staley and the Chargers?

Fowler: The feeling around the league is Staley needed to win in 2023. Sitting at 5-8 with Herbert out for the season (right index finger) doesn't exactly bode well, though perhaps there's time to navigate a wide-open AFC wild-card race, starting Thursday night in Las Vegas. Staley's 24-23 overall record is respectable, given the rash of Chargers injuries over the past three years and the lack of overall consistency with the franchise (two 10-win seasons since 2010, one of which Staley owns). And I haven't sensed any sort of locker room friction there. But this is a popular job that comes up when people in the know discuss potential openings, and I don't see that changing.

Graziano: Yes, my understanding all along was Staley had to make the playoffs to survive. And while it's still possible the Chargers sneak in, the injury to Herbert is going to make it incredibly tough. I agree that this job more than likely comes open, and as we already discussed, it might become the most popular opening in the league.

Fowler: The possibilities with Herbert certainly make the job attractive. But in talking to personnel people about the Chargers, the roster has probably been overhyped. There are holes for next year's coach to fill. The offense is suddenly short on playmaking, the offensive line hasn't been as good, and the depth at several defensive spots is thin. The roster is talented with plenty of star power, but it's not a juggernaut. And ownership is not known for aggressive spending, though it bucked the trend with a big Herbert contract. Will the Chargers open the bank for a new coach? Michigan's Jim Harbaugh could be a factor, but he would command top dollar.

Graziano: That always seems to be the question with the Chargers -- will they spend? That perception is a little bit outdated and unfair given the way they've spent on their roster in recent seasons, but it's out there. I think Harbaugh or Belichick would fit their desire to grab more of the spotlight in their market.

Any wild-card teams that could make a coaching change?

Graziano: The Jets' win on Sunday was a big boost to Robert Saleh's chances of returning next season. They probably would have had to lose out and see proof he was losing control in order to make a change there. Sure, it's still possible, but I lean toward Saleh being safe. Sunday was also a big win for the Bills, especially after the week that Sean McDermott had. I think McDermott is likely safe as well, but I don't think he's out of the woods yet, and Buffalo's schedule still has a couple of tough games left. And I'm also not of the opinion that Mike Tomlin is in any trouble in Pittsburgh.

My eyes are on the NFC South, where the Panthers job is already open and none of the other three seem particularly safe. What are you hearing about the Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints?

Fowler: It seems like a job could open in this division, depending on how things play out. The sense I get after asking around is that Arthur Smith is safe in Atlanta, barring a late-season collapse.

That would leave New Orleans and Tampa Bay. I don't think the Saints want to make a change on Dennis Allen, but another losing season would mark two in a row, which wasn't the norm in the Sean Payton era (though he did have a stretch of three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014 to '16). It still needs to be seen how much grace New Orleans' front office and ownership is willing to apply. The Bucs are harder to read. Some people around the league are earmarking this one as a potential opening, but there's a very real chance Tampa Bay wins the division now. A strong finish would help Todd Bowles' case.

Here's a wild card for you, Dan: What about a team trading for Tennessee's Mike Vrabel? He's going on two consecutive down seasons but would be coveted on the open market. New England would make a lot of sense if it doesn't go with Mayo.

Graziano: I think Vrabel is an interesting one to watch. He certainly delivered a strong résumé tape Monday Night with that victory over the Dolphins. He was in New England earlier this season during Tennessee's bye week to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame for his contributions as a player, and I would not be at all shocked if succeeding Belichick were of interest to him. To be clear, I have no inside information to indicate that it is, or that he wants to leave Tennessee. The Titans want to keep him, and they crave stability with a new stadium project on the horizon. Vrabel is extremely well regarded in coaching circles, and if he ever wanted to try his hand with another organization, he would be in high demand.

Fowler: The sense is Vrabel is certainly welcome back in Tennessee, where it looks like he has a promising quarterback in Will Levis. The roster needs work, and general manager Ran Carthon is finishing his first year at the helm. Will he be building the franchise's long-term vision in Vrabel's image? We need more time to crystallize that answer.

Lastly, given Pete Carroll's age (72), his one-day retirement from the Seahawks will be on the radar of many agents and teams around the league. Eventually, he'll step away.

What are you hearing on under-the-radar candidates who could get interviews?

Fowler: This is an intriguing field, because most of the names are well known or widely expected. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo aren't exactly sleepers.

One coach who isn't a household name but will likely get traction is Miami offensive coordinator Frank Smith. The Kyle Shanahan/Mike McDaniel offense is coveted right now, and Smith is a key part of Miami's top-ranked unit. San Francisco defensive coordinator Steve Wilks might be more under the radar than he should be, too, as his 2022 Carolina interim stint looks mighty good against the backdrop of the Panthers' 1-12 record this season. And with Jaguars OC Press Taylor working into a prominent playcalling role over the past two years, his profile has grown. Jacksonville has been a top-10 scoring offense the past two seasons with Taylor calling a significant portion of the plays.

Graziano: I'd also expect Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to generate interest. He has worked for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan and John Harbaugh in Baltimore. The Ravens' defensive performance this season has opened a lot of eyes, and I expect teams will want to talk to Macdonald.

Anarumo might be a stronger candidate than people believe. He's older than a lot of the rest of the field and works on the defensive side of the ball in an era when everyone is chasing offense. But he was seriously in the mix in Arizona in the last cycle and has impressed not just with his job performance but also when he has interviewed for head-coaching jobs. I'm also keeping a close eye on Bobby Slowik, even though he has been an offensive coordinator for only one season in Houston. He comes from that Shanahan tree, and the performance of rookie QB C.J. Stroud is something teams will want to pick his brain on.

Fowler: Macdonald will be a prominent figure, for sure, and Slowik's profile is rising by the week. His time might be now instead of a year from now. Baltimore OC Todd Monken has remodeled a potent Ravens offense and was once a finalist in Green Bay. Cincinnati offensive coordinator Brian Callahan was a finalist in Indianapolis last year, too, and could make his way back into conversations.

But if defense is a major theme as teams try to replicate DeMeco Ryans' success with the Texans, it could open the door for new defensive candidates such as Ryan Nielsen (Falcons), Jeff Ulbrich (Jets), Vance Joseph (Broncos), Shane Bowen (Titans), Clint Hurtt (Seahawks), Mike Caldwell (Jaguars) or Mayo (Pats).

Graziano: I also think interim coach Antonio Pierce has a legitimate shot of keeping the Raiders' job, especially if they can sneak into the playoffs. The team seems to respond to him, and owner Mark Davis might regret not sticking with Rich Bisaccia two seasons ago when Las Vegas played hard for him while he was its interim coach. People are always going to want to connect Jim Harbaugh with the Raiders, though. Thoughts on Harbaugh jumping back into the NFL this cycle, Jeremy?

Fowler: He'll probably consider the jump, but I'm told that won't be decided until after the College Football Playoff. Some NFL people are more convinced than before that Harbaugh will make himself very available. The contract would be massive, and he would likely need personnel power -- and a willing partner.

I also still consider Carolina defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero a prime candidate for a head-coaching job, even though he has been on bad teams in back-to-back seasons. His defenses in Denver and Carolina have still been stout. And lastly, is this the year that Minnesota's Brian Flores gets his second chance? Could be.

What's your top upset pick for Week 15?

Graziano: Steelers (+2.5) over Colts. It's a Saturday game, and Pittsburgh will have had eight days of rest. The Colts will have had five. Both teams are coming off painful, damaging losses and need wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tomlin has to finish 2-2 or better to ensure he doesn't have his first losing season, and he has had time to get his team's act together for this game. I'll say they find a way to get to 8-6 with a victory in Indy on Saturday.

Fowler: Patriots (+9.5) over Chiefs. Go big or go home. The Patriots are 3-1 with Bailey Zappe as their starter, dating back to last season, and the Chiefs are reeling. New England's defense has been excellent, allowing 44 points over the past four games. While I expect the Chiefs to get things together in time for January football, the offense has not elicited much confidence.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Keep riding the Bears' D'Onta Foreman as an RB2. His outlook has been bumpy this season, with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson taking turns as lead back, but Chicago is leaning into Foreman -- and with good results. In five games with at least 11 carries, Foreman has 367 yards (83 carries) and three touchdowns. More importantly, the Bears are 3-2 in those games. Expect Foreman to continue getting more chances. The Bears are quietly improving, winning three of their past four. Foreman was a catalyst for the Panthers' late-season surge in 2022, and perhaps he can have a similar effect on the Bears' offense in December.

Graziano: I like Jerick McKinnon as the RB play in Kansas City if Isiah Pacheco has to miss another game. And I like him as a desperation flyer even if Pacheco does play. Clyde Edwards-Helaire got more carries Sunday, but he didn't do much with them. The Chiefs prefer McKinnon in the passing game over CEH, and running backs have done better in the passing game than on the ground against New England this season. McKinnon is healthier than he has been all season, and it was him -- not Edwards-Helaire -- who scored Kansas City's rushing touchdown against the Bills on Sunday. This is around the time last season when the Chiefs really started to rely on McKinnon for scoring production, and with their wide receivers struggling in basically every area, they're looking for some kind of spark for the offense. McKinnon could be in for another very useful fantasy stretch run.

What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano's notebook:

• The NFL is looking into the postgame comments made by Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid following the offsides penalty by Kadarius Toney at the end of Sunday's Chiefs loss to the Bills. There have been occasions in the past when the league has fined players and coaches for comments critical of the officials.

A couple of things to monitor: The league usually gives players a fair bit of leeway on this because of the emotional nature of the game, and it also assesses whether there is a history of such comments and would be more likely to fine a repeat offender. And the league will also pay particular attention to what Mahomes was saying to officials while still on the sideline during the game and right after it ended. If the NFL finds he engaged in abusive behavior toward an official, Mahomes would be more likely to face discipline.

All of that said, there's no indication Mahomes was abusive, and it sounds like the league will probably let this go. But if it finds out something was said that crosses a line, Mahomes could end up paying a fine. Also worth noting: The league does not have any issue with the call itself or the way the play was officiated. The only inquiry is into the comments and behavior of Mahomes and Reid. The play was officiated correctly and is not the subject of any sort of review.

Fowler's notebook:

• A few factors went into Minnesota's decision to start quarterback Nick Mullens in Week 15. The Vikings are on a short week, traveling to Cincinnati for a Saturday afternoon kickoff. That heightens the need for a veteran who knows the system well. Mullens has 17 NFL starts and has acquitted himself well in relief of Joshua Dobbs, who struggled for two consecutive weeks. A short week would be a tough turnaround for rookie Jaren Hall, for example. Coach Kevin O'Connell needs good decision-making at the position entering a crucial stretch. With Detroit holding a two-game lead in the NFC North, Minnesota senses the urgency -- and could get receiver Justin Jefferson (chest) back against Cincinnati.

• When Browns coach Kevin Stefanski announced Sunday that quarterback Joe Flacco would be his starter for the remainder of the season, that begged the question: What will the team do about his practice squad status? The Browns will need to add him to the 53-man roster eventually. And Flacco, who has one more week of practice-squad elevation left, fully plans to stay in Cleveland, so there's no real drama here. But a contract needs to be finalized, and Flacco has a bit of leverage after throwing for 565 yards and five touchdown passes in two games, coming in cold off the free agency couch. So this could be a deal that includes some extra cash or incentives beyond the minimum.

• This week's NFL owners meetings in Dallas feature the front office accelerator program of more than 40 minority executives from around the league. Ran Carthon became the first GM from the program when the Titans hired him in January 2023, and the league is hoping for more future general managers from the group. It already has one, in a way, with Champ Kelly as the Raiders' interim GM. And there's a belief in some league circles that Kelly's chances to retain the job permanently are legitimate. He was a finalist for the same job two years ago and has served as assistant GM there since 2022.

• Owners will be briefed on a few controversial competition matters -- including the hip-drop tackle and the "tush push" that has been made famous by the Eagles -- at this week's meetings but won't make any sweeping decisions on them yet. As was pointed out to me by a source involved, this is mainly an offseason discussion, so expect more movement here at the spring meetings in March. The hip-drop tackle, in particular, is squarely on the NFL's radar because of its injury risk. "It's an unforgiving behavior and one we need to try to define and get it out of the game," Jeff Miller, the NFL's executive vice president of player health and safety, said in October.

• After asking around, I'm expecting the Raiders to stick with Aidan O'Connell under center this week against the Chargers -- but he could have a quick hook if he struggles. Jimmy Garoppolo has been the primary backup, with Brian Hoyer as the designated third quarterback. So there's a chance Garoppolo gets a second crack at leading the Raiders' offense. Las Vegas is looking for a spark after scoring a total of 30 points over the past three weeks.