We're in the stretch run of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 13 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Can Jordan Davis and the Eagles stop the 49ers' running attack?
Davis, a 2022 first-round pick by the Eagles, leads the entire NFL in run stop win rate as an interior defender (48%). RSWR measures run-stopping performance in a variety of ways, most notably a player's ability to beat their blocker or make a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Philly defensive tackle hasn't played a ton this season, but Davis' snap count increased significantly last week against the Bills (62 snaps), and he could be crucial against the 49ers.
No team in the NFL calls designed runs at a higher rate than San Francisco (47%), and running back Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing at 939 yards (4.9 per carry).
Is Kalif Raymond an X factor against the Saints?
I noticed last week that Raymond had cracked the top 10 of open score in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics, joining a slew of stars. Then he recorded 90 yards on five receptions on Thanksgiving against Green Bay. Consider me intrigued. Raymond ranks eighth in open score (83) between A.J. Brown and Chris Olave, albeit it in a smaller sample.
The Lions receiver seems to excel on shallow crossing routes over the middle. But open is open, and if he's having some sort of late-career breakout, that will be huge for the Lions against the Saints on Sunday -- and as they enter the stretch run.
How is Tim Boyle starting a second game for the Jets?
I don't think Boyle's lack of credentials can be stressed enough. From 2013 to 2015 at UConn, he recorded a 15.8 QBR. That ranked 251st out of 251 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts in that span. After failing to cut it at UConn, he transferred to Eastern Kentucky. Because they are FCS level, we only have QBRs for his two games vs. FBS opponents (slightly better 38 QBR in those two games, to be fair) to round out his college career at 15.8.
Entering this season, Boyle's career QBR in the pros was 27.7. And against the Dolphins in Week 12, he posted a 4.6 QBR -- worst of all QBs. Benching Zach Wilson (for someone else) was the right move for the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing how Boyle doesn't crush the Jets' chances to beat the Falcons on Sunday.
Can the Lions' pass defense recover against the Saints?
After a solid start in which the Lions ranked 10th in expected points added per dropback in Weeks 1 through 8, the Lions' pass defense is in shambles over the past three weeks since their bye, ranking last in the category.
In that span, their pass rush win rate has dropped to 30th in the NFL, and Aidan Hutchinson has a 9% pass rush win rate that ranks 43rd out of 49 over those three weeks. Cornerback Jerry Jacobs has allowed 205 passing yards (third most by any player) and three touchdowns as the nearest defender in that span, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Sunday's game is an opportunity to get back on track. If they don't, it could be a warning sign. New Orleans is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season, 22nd in the league.
Can Josh Allen have another multisack game against the Bengals?
The Jaguars' star edge rusher has four such games and 12.0 sacks overall. He has a great shot to get to five on Monday. We don't have a large sample from Bengals quarterback Jake Browning, but when he has played this season, he has a 13% sack rate behind the Bengals' shaky offensive line. Allen will be going against Cincinnati offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who has declined this season. He ranks 49th out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate (85%).
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (41.2% rostered)
Samuel set seasons highs in targets (12), receptions (9), receiving yards (100) and fantasy points (19) against the Cowboys last week. He also became the first receiver this season to have 100 yards against Dallas. The Commanders may have to rely heavily on the passing game against the Dolphins since they are huge underdogs, and Samuel has the most favorable cornerback matchup from the slot against Miami's Kader Kohou.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (32.1% rostered)
Over the past two weeks, Spears has only accumulated nine touches and 6.3 fantasy points. He had his best game of the season against the Colts in Week 5, though, when Spears had 11 touches and 17.0 fantasy points. Fantasy managers in deeper leagues shouldn't overlook Spears as a flex option against Indy with six teams on a bye. Inserting him into fantasy lineups is not for the faint of heart, but the Colts' defense allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30.5% rostered)
Otton continues to run a high number of routes and play a high percentage of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps. Over the past six games, he has scored 8.0 or more fantasy points five times. And over that period, Otton has seen 5.5 targets per game. He now faces the Panthers' defense, which has given up 26.5 points per game, the third most in the league. Otton can shine here.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Indianapolis Colts (9.7% rostered)
In three of the four games this season when Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes, he has scored at least 13 fantasy points. He is in a good spot to post big numbers this week when you factor in the rapport he has with receiver Michael Pittman Jr., receiver Josh Downs being healthy and the Titans' defense allowing 16.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Since Tennessee does a good job of stopping the run, the Colts could rely more on Minshew and the passing game.
DeVante Parker, WR, New England Patriots (1.9% rostered)
Demario Douglas has accumulated seven or more targets in four consecutive games, scoring 10 or more fantasy points in three of them, but he is in concussion protocol. That leaves his status against the Chargers unknown. Last week, Parker returned from a two-game absence and is positioned to inherit some of the target volume if Douglas is ruled out. And the Chargers' defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will throw three touchdown passes
Tagovailoa has thrown three or more touchdown passes in only four games this season, but I see matchup advantages on the perimeter for Miami in this one, and coach Mike McDaniel will have answers for the Commanders' zone schemes. Through 12 weeks, Washington is allowing 264.4 yards passing yards per game, fourth most in the league, and are giving up an NFL-worst 29.2 points per game. It's a bounce-back week for Tagovailoa here.
Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson will rush for over 25 yards
Wilson has logged 30 or more rushing yards in three of his past four games, and he's being deployed on designed carries in the Broncos' offense. In the Week 12 win over the Browns, Wilson totaled 24 yards rushing on four designed runs, including a red zone touchdown. Add that to his ability to create off schedule as a runner, and I see Wilson hitting that 25-yard number on Sunday versus the Texans.
Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk will have a 25-plus-yard reception
Watch for Kirk on deep crossing routes in the Monday night game against the Bengals. He has produced a reception of 25 yards or more in nine of his past 10 games, and he can run away from coverage or find the zone voids at the third level of the defense. Cincinnati has allowed 31 passing plays to gain at least 25 yards this season, third most in the NFL.
Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner will intercept his first pass of the season
Gardner still hasn't recorded an interception in 2023 (two in 2022), but he has five pass breakups, and Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder has thrown multiple picks in three games. Given the Jets' ability to disrupt the pocket -- which will speed up the clock for Ridder -- I'm looking for Gardner to grab one Sunday. Tips and overthrows count, too, and there should be some opportunities for the talented young corner.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will run for over 70 yards
Pacheco is seeing consistent volume, with at least 15 carries in each of his past three games. And he's also running angry, getting downhill with juice. I'll take that against a Packers defense allowing an average of 135.2 yards rushing per game, the sixth most in the league.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Several standout offensive skill players are questionable (or bound to be) for Sunday/Monday, but many of them are at least hopeful they can play. That goes for Packers receiver Jayden Reed (chest), Texans receiver Tank Dell (calf), Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (ribs) and Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (thigh). None of these feel like closed cases.
The Chargers are hoping to get clarity on Allen on Saturday as they visit New England. Etienne believes the rest this week will help him be ready for Monday night, and Dell is confident he can play. And while Reed is trying to get right for Sunday, it should be noted that the Packers are notoriously cautious with injuries. There's also uncertainty around Tampa Bay receiver Chris Godwin, who is still dealing with a neck injury and didn't practice Friday. He's a game-time decision.
We're seeing a mini NFC East head-to-head with a few free agents this week. The Eagles and Cowboys are both vying for linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who will likely decide between these teams this weekend. A few scouts I spoke to believe Dallas is the best fit, as he can slide into that Leighton Vander Esch role. And the Eagles figure to be in on a Zach Ertz reunion. Baltimore could be one to watch there, too, after losing Mark Andrews to injury.
Don't be surprised if the Browns take some deep shots with quarterback Joe Flacco. They were impressed with his arm strength during this tryout and subsequent practices. Mobility is probably an issue at this stage, but coach Kevin Stefanski and the Browns can work around that. Flacco also proved a quick study in learning the playbook.
The NFL continues to follow legal developments on the Von Miller situation, per a source. Miller turned himself into the police on Thursday after an arrest warrant was issued for allegedly assaulting a pregnant woman. As was pointed out to me, the league typically uses the commissioner exempt list following formal charges by a prosecutor or indictment by a grand jury. That has not happened in this case, and the Bills are gathering information and will not comment further.