HOUSTON -- Sunday's Jaguars-Texans game shaped up as one of the biggest matchups of Week 12, and it delivered. A back-and-forth affair between Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud came down, literally, to a couple of inches. Jacksonville held on to win 24-21 when Matt Ammendola's game-tying field goal attempt from 58 yards out hit the crossbar and bounced backward into the end zone.
One of the big-picture takeaways from watching this game was imagining Lawrence and Stroud going against each other twice a season (at least!) for years to come. So when it was over, I asked Lawrence if that's something he could get excited about, as well. He smiled and said no. "I want the teams in our division to be as bad as possible," he said, before going into a nice answer about how impressed he is with what Stroud is doing as a rookie and how he expects it to be a good rivalry going forward. "I'd prefer if the other teams in our division all had bad quarterbacks."
But Houston does not. Stroud took a couple of bad sacks on the final drive, which ended up being costly since the Texans needed to be only 1 yard closer for a successful field goal attempt. Overall, Stroud continued his stellar rookie season with 304 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 47 rushing yards and a rushing TD. He surpassed Justin Herbert for the most passing yards in the first 11 games of a rookie season and tied Andrew Luck for the second-most 300-yard passing games by a rookie with six, two behind Herbert's record of eight. Stroud is, Sunday's tough loss notwithstanding, legit. Sorry, Trevor.
All of that said, the game went Jacksonville's way. As a result, the Jaguars have a two-game lead in the AFC South with six games left in the regular season. Jacksonville wide receiver Christian Kirk told me, "This was a must-win game for us, and that's the way we prepared all week." A loss would have dropped the Jaguars into a tie with Houston, and the Texans would have had the tiebreaker by virtue of beating the Jags twice this season. Instead, the Jaguars are in control of the division, and we begin our Week 12 overreactions column -- in which we judge some of the biggest potential takeaways off the slate of games -- with them and their potential.
Jump to:
Could the Jags land the No. 1 seed?
Will the Pats draft another first-round QB?
Should the Packers extend Love again?
Is Jalen Hurts going to win MVP?
Are the Broncos making the playoffs?
The Jaguars have a legitimate chance at the AFC's No. 1 seed
At the end of their game on Sunday, that's exactly where the Jaguars stood: tied at 8-3 with the Dolphins and Ravens for the best record in the conference but ahead of both on tiebreakers. The Chiefs won in the afternoon window to join those teams at 8-3 -- Kansas City has the tiebreaker there -- and the Ravens moved to 9-3 with a win on Sunday night. But the Jaguars are very clearly in the mix, and the idea of them scoring the conference's first-round bye is worth considering. Jacksonville's chances to finish atop the conference are 15%, per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This is a team that knows how to hit the gas in the second half of the campaign. From Week 12 on last season, the Jaguars went 6-1 and then came back from 27 points down to beat the Chargers in the wild-card round of the playoffs. "Last year taught us how to win," Kirk told me. "And especially taught us the importance and the significance of November and December games and what it's like to pull those out. So that can only help us moving forward this year, that experience."
The Jaguars have a tough AFC North gauntlet coming up, starting with a home game next Monday night against Cincinnati followed by a trip to Cleveland and a home game against Baltimore. But if they can pick up a couple of wins in that stretch, they'd be well-positioned with their final three games against the Buccaneers, Panthers and Titans. The Jaguars absolutely have shown enough to convince us they'll stay in the hunt for the AFC's top seed until the end, especially if they can find a way to win that Week 15 home game against the Ravens.
The Patriots will draft another first-round quarterback in 2024
The last quarterback the Patriots took in the first round, Mac Jones (No. 15 in 2021), threw two ugly first-half interceptions on Sunday and got benched for Bailey Zappe for the second game in a row. Which of them starts next week hardly seems relevant at this point. New England lost a hideous game to the Giants when rookie kicker Chad Ryland's game-tying attempt from 35 yards went wide left, but this was a case in which the loss might have been a win.
The defeat dropped the Patriots' record to 2-9 while it improved the Giants' to 4-8 -- and that matters for draft position. The game's result left the Patriots with a 10% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, per ESPN's FPI, third best behind the Bears (who have Carolina's pick) and the Cardinals. New England is set up to pick in the top two or three regardless of whether the Panthers win any more games, and the 2024 draft is thought to be rich in top QB talent.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I don't know what Jones would have to do in the final six weeks of the season to convince the Patriots to pick up his 2025 fifth-year option and not draft a quarterback with their very high first-round selection. But it's possible he doesn't even get the chance to play for them again. At this point, it seems very clear that the Pats will be in the market for a new QB next offseason.
The bigger question is who will be in charge of the decision if New England ends up parting ways with coach/general manager Bill Belichick when this miserable season is over. Whoever ends up calling the shots for the Pats next offseason will absolutely have eyes on the quarterback draft class -- including USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye -- as well as the free agent QBs. It feels like the Patriots have seen enough of Jones.
The Packers need to sign Jordan Love to a real contract extension this offseason
Week 12 began way back on Thursday afternoon with a Thanksgiving Day upset by Love and the Packers over the division-leading Lions. Love was excellent, throwing three touchdown passes, and the Packers have sneaked back into the tail end of the NFC playoff race. They're 5-6 with Kansas City coming to town next Sunday night. But then they're looking at a finish facing the Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Vikings and Bears that could end up making this a fun turnaround story for a young quarterback who has struggled to connect with his young receiving corps this season.
You might remember that rather than forcing the Packers to make a decision on his fifth-year option last offseason, Love agreed to a stunningly team-favorable extension that should pay him $6 million next season and looks like a steal for the Packers even if he turns out to be a decent backup, let alone a starter. He currently has 19 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, and his 52.0 QBR ranks 18th in the NFL.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
What's their incentive to do this? Love effectively bet against himself by agreeing to this deal, and the team is in a position of strength. Now if he finishes the campaign strong and goes into next year as the Packers' unquestioned starter, you could make a strong case that they should extend him (for real this time) rather than make him play for midlevel backup money in a lame-duck season. And they very well may. But it's way too soon to know how this season will end for Love and whether he'll be their unquestioned starter next offseason. And even if he is, the Packers have all the leverage here.
Love already has shown them he won't play hardball when it comes to contract talks. They could, obviously, decide to "do the right thing" and bump him up to starter money. But if and when those negotiations begin, the Packers will be the ones dictating the terms. They don't have to do anything they don't want to do, and they certainly don't have to decide what to do now, with six games to go in what's still a losing season.
Jalen Hurts will win the MVP award
The Eagles might be unstoppable. Missing right tackle Lane Johnson, who showed up with a groin injury on Sunday morning and couldn't play, they fell behind 24-14 to Buffalo in the third quarter. They trailed 31-28 with just under two minutes left and needed a 59-yard field goal from Jake Elliott to force overtime. And they fell behind 34-31 in overtime. But Philadelphia then marched down the field for a rushing touchdown that capped an incredible day for Hurts, who finished with five total touchdowns (three passing, two rushing).
The Eagles improved to 10-1 on the strength of back-to-back comeback wins against Kansas City and Buffalo, and all of that talk about whether the schedules would help Dallas catch them is fading, as the Eagles keep winning games against their tough slate.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Heading into Monday night's game in Week 11, I felt that the quarterback of the winning team would become the MVP favorite. And after Hurts' Eagles beat Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs, that's exactly what happened. Hurts obviously helped his own case with Sunday's masterpiece too. He's tough. He's clutch. He's flat-out fantastic at every aspect of his game, throwing 15 touchdown passes and rushing for nine scores this season. And his team has the best record in the league.
If the Eagles hold off the Cowboys to become the first repeat NFC East champions in 19 years -- as it very much appears they might -- and secure the NFC's No. 1 seed for the second season in a row, I'm not sure how this award is going to anyone else.
The Broncos will make the playoffs
What? The Broncos? The team that started the season 1-5 and along the way lost a game by the still-incomprehensible score of 70-20? Yeah, don't look now, but that very team just hung 29 points on the Browns to win its fifth game in a row and improve to 6-5. With all of Sunday's afternoon games complete, Denver sat in the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff race, albeit with the same record as No. 7 seed Indianapolis and No. 8 seed Houston.
Lessons here include the following:
The NFL season is always longer than you think.
Denver coach Sean Payton might well have been worth trading a first-round pick to acquire.
Quarterback Russell Wilson might not have been as big a part of the 2022 Broncos' problems as we might have thought.
This current Denver team, with Wilson in a do-no-harm role and the defense having engineered one of the biggest in-season turnarounds of any unit on any team in the league, looks nothing like the squad we watched in September and October. And it's firmly in the playoff race.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
If you believe the Broncos are going to keep winning every game, finish the season on an 11-game win streak and end up 12-5, sure, you can imagine them cashing in on this second-half surge with a playoff spot. I just don't see some flawless team here. Denver is playing great, but there are more lulls that await.
The Broncos' next three games are all on the road, versus the Texans, Chargers and Lions. If Denver goes 2-1 or 3-0 in that stretch, I'll buy it. But this AFC race is a massive jumble right now, from top to bottom. Denver needed a five-game win streak just to get back to the ninth seed! The Broncos are playing much better, but I'm not sure they have what it takes to fight their way out of that wild-card-hunt pack that includes Cleveland, Indy, Houston, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Maybe, but it's too soon to say that with any confidence. That 1-5 start still likely comes back to cost them, as ESPN's FPI is giving them a 30% chance to make the seven-team playoff field in the AFC.