We're on to the second half of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 10 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 60% of ESPN fantasy football leagues who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
Jump to a topic:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Could the Saints' cornerback duo slow down Minnesota's Joshua Dobbs?
Paulson Adebo's two interceptions (and a forced/recovered fumble) last week were eye-catching, and it was indicative of a major area of strength for the Saints: their cornerback room. Adebo and Marshon Lattimore rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in yards per coverage snap allowed among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. That helps make up for the Saints' lack of pass rush and should make Dobbs' first start as the Vikings' quarterback a little more difficult.
Is the Vikings' blitz-heavy approach working, and what does it mean for their matchup with New Orleans?
Overall, yes. But the reality is that parts of it are working very well and others not so much. The Vikings blitz 51%, by far the highest rate in the league. They also blitz defensive backs 26% (also league-high), and that is actually where they have success. When the Vikings blitz a defensive back, opponents average negative-0.15 expected points added per play. When they blitz without sending a defensive back, however, opponents feast to the tune of 0.26 EPA per play.
So for the Saints and quarterback Derek Carr, the concern is not just whether Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is sending a blitz but also who is coming on it.
Should the Jets have signed Jakobi Meyers instead of Allen Lazard in the offseason?
Lazard might have been something of a package deal with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but putting that aside, the Jets -- who face Meyers and the Raiders on Sunday night -- will surely regret their choice of free agent receivers this offseason. And that's also true for most of the other teams that passed on Meyers.
Almost halfway through the season, Lazard is tied with JuJu Smith-Schuster (another 2023 free agent receiver) at 84th of 86 in our receiver tracking metrics' open score. Meanwhile, Meyers is tied for eighth. Plenty has gone wrong for Las Vegas this season, but Meyers is one thing that has gone right.
Does Marvin Mims Jr. give the Broncos a special teams advantage against Buffalo?
Mims has put up some impressive numbers as a returner. The rookie receiver leads the NFL in average punt return yards over expectation (plus-11.4) and average kick return yards over expectation per return (plus-15.6, minimum five kick returns), per NFL Next Gen Stats research. He has fumbled once as a punt returner, to be fair, but in a game in which the Broncos are underdogs and could use help from anywhere, perhaps Mims could be an answer on special teams.
The Bills, who face Denver on Monday night, are below average in coverage yards over expectation on punts and above average on kicks.
Can Buffalo turn it around against the Broncos?
It's simply too soon to write off the Bills. I know it seems as if the Bills are suddenly a sinking ship, and yes, they have put themselves in a spot where the playoffs are not guaranteed. ESPN's Football Power Index has them at 56.9% to make the postseason, down from 72.5% in the preseason.
But these Bills? They're Super Bowl contenders. I'd point out that Josh Allen leads the league in Total QBR (75.3). Plus, the offense ranks fourth in EPA per dropback and third in EPA per designed carry. Sure, the defense is struggling, especially against the pass. But this team is too good at what matters most -- passing efficiency -- to not be a real threat to win it all. I'd bet on the turnaround starting Monday night against Denver.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (51.6% rostered)
Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon confirmed that Murray will start at home against the Falcons. Murray already has a great rapport with wide receiver Marquise Brown, and running back James Conner is on track to return after his stint on injured reserve, which will boost Arizona's run game. Murray has top-10 potential against a Falcons defense that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. He has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game during his career and will be eager to prove he is still a franchise signal-caller to build around.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans (36.0% rostered)
Levis has displayed his solid arm strength, accuracy, decision-making, mobility, footwork, anticipation and poise under pressure. Although he has room for improvement, fantasy managers should be encouraged by what they've seen and his chemistry with wideout DeAndre Hopkins. And he is a solid option for managers desperate for help with multiple quarterback injuries and Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on byes. Levis faces a Buccaneers defense that just allowed 41.8 fantasy points to Houston's C.J. Stroud.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (33.6% rostered)
On "Monday Night Football" against the Jets, Johnston caught two of three targets for 14 yards and had to deal with cornerback Sauce Gardner for most of the game. But there is one positive to note. With Joshua Palmer on injured reserve, Johnston played around 84% of the offensive snaps, running a similar number of routes to Keenan Allen. For fantasy managers in deeper formats, he can be a viable flex option against the Lions in Week 10.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (32.7% rostered)
Spears' number of snaps has increased with each game. This season, Derrick Henry has averaged 19.4 touches per game in the Titans' backfield. Despite averaging only 7.6 touches, Spears has gotten 7.1 yards per touch. Running backs have been limited to the second-fewest fantasy points per game against the Buccaneers defense. But consider that Spears leads the Titans' backfield in routes run, targets and receptions. He has a chance to stand out as a receiver out of the backfield against Tampa Bay in Week 10.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (20.4% rostered)
Although the Patriots don't have a robust offense, they rank ninth in pass attempts per game. It's a good matchup for Henry in Week 10 against a Colts defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. When targeting Henry, Mac Jones' QBR is 84.9, seventh best for quarterback-tight end connections with at least 35 attempts leaguewide. It's also worth mentioning that the veteran tight end has averaged 15.9 fantasy points in games in which he saw six or more targets.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will run for a touchdown
Jackson has rushed for five touchdowns this season, with two of those scores coming in Week 4 against the Browns, Baltimore's Week 10 opponent. Look for Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken to dial up some designed run concepts for Jackson on Sunday when Baltimore moves the ball into the low red zone. Jackson is leading quarterbacks with 48.9 rushing yards per game, picking up a first down on 38.1% of his carries.
Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner will have an interception
Gardner has yet to grab an interception this season, but he has five pass breakups. And I see a Jets pass rush that can win edge matchups against the Raiders while deploying twist stunts to heat up the pocket Sunday night. New York can force the ball out on rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell in his third start here, with Gardner lying in the weeds to pick one off.
Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will rush for over 75 yards
Pollard hasn't rushed for 75 or more yards since Week 3, but let's play the matchup in Week 10 at home against the Giants. This season, the Giants are allowing 127.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the league. Pollard and the Cowboys can get the run game rolling Sunday afternoon.
Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins will catch a touchdown
The Buccaneers have played quarters on 22.1% of coverage snaps, the most in the league. So I'm thinking Hopkins can haul in a score on a schemed shot play here. Set max protection for Levis, remove the safety and isolate Hopkins on the outside to win the one-on-one. After going touchdown-less in his first six games in Tennessee, Hopkins caught three from Levis in his first start two weeks ago.
Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons will have multiple sacks
Parson has 7.5 sacks this season, but he has posted two or more in a game only once. But with rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito starting for New York, Parsons can win the edge matchups and create pocket disruption from interior alignments in Dan Quinn's defense.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Cleveland edge rusher Myles Garrett got Baltimore's attention this week with his comments that he'd take Joe Burrow over Lamar Jackson. Convenient timing, with the Browns traveling to Baltimore for a heated AFC North showdown. I talked to someone with the Ravens who had this to say about Jackson in relation to the comments: "He hears so much stuff that it just rolls off -- he's the ultimate competitor, and it's a divisional game so people might take shots. But Lamar is focused on winning."
Jackson ranks 11th in QBR (63.0) and is thriving in Todd Monken's system, and people with the team say Jackson is showing his personality more within the offense. He has been a leadership catalyst and is "very assertive" with what he wants out of a play, one source told me.
In other Ravens news, running back Keaton Mitchell (questionable, hamstring) made progress in practice this week and has a decent chance to play. Mitchell exploded for 138 yards and a touchdown last week.
While playing Sunday appears unlikely for Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson (questionable, hamstring), a source said Week 11 vs. the Broncos is a possibility. As one source put it, Jefferson is too much of a competitor not to try to return this season, despite the loss of Kirk Cousins to an Achilles tear. And tight end T.J. Hockenson (questionable, ribs) is expected to play, per a source.
In other injury news, Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (questionable, back) wants to at least attempt to play against the Texans. He's dealing with soreness, so perhaps Cincinnati holds him back as a precaution. But he's giving himself a chance.
The 49ers will make a decision on left tackle Trent Williams (questionable, ankle) close to Sunday. He's still experiencing discomfort, so he's not a slam dunk to play -- but will try to push through against the Jaguars.
Packers running back Aaron Jones does not have an injury designation. So why was he limited in practice all week? The Packers gave him some rest coming off a season-high 20 carries last week. He hadn't attempted more than nine rushes prior to that this season due to a nagging hamstring issue. The Packers know Jones is instrumental to their winning ways and wanted to save him for Pittsburgh.