It's overreaction time! Yes, we're back for another season of NFL overreaction Monday, and there's no overreaction like a Week 1 overreaction. Nothing like letting one game completely change the opinions formed about a team or player over months of studying and projection.
The Bengals paid Joe Burrow how much money? And he threw for how many yards?
The Falcons took Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts in the top 10 over the past three years, and they're going to lean on Tyler Allgeier?
See? We told you the Vikings' 13-win 2022 season was a mirage!
Truth is, Week 1 is but a sliver of the NFL season. Every year, we look back on some wild stuff that happened during the opening weekend and marvel at just how opposite things turned out for that player, that team or that coach. So with that in mind, here's a look at the first week of the 2023 season, and what about it might -- or might not -- have been real.
Jump to:
Browns winning AFC North?
Hill to win MVP?
Cowboys as most complete NFC team?
Lions as Super Bowl contenders?
Love as the Packers' answer?
The Browns will win the AFC North
Cleveland flat-out dominated a Bengals team that has won the division each of the past two years and split the past two AFC Championship Games with the Chiefs. Three days after being anointed the league's highest-paid player, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was 14-for-31 for a meager 82 yards passing. The Browns outgained the Bengals 350 yards to 142 and won 24-3 despite losing the turnover battle 2-0.
Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Steelers were totally outclassed by the 49ers, and the Ravens beat a weak Houston team while suffering a couple of injuries to key players, including running back J.K. Dobbins, who was lost for the season. Behind battering-ram running back Nick Chubb and their Myles Garrett-led defense, the Browns looked the best of any team in what could be the league's toughest division in Week 1.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Browns could be good. They could be good enough to be division champs for the first time since 1989 (when they were still the original Browns, who later became the Ravens). But this Week 1 game is far from proof.
Consider that Burrow threw four interceptions in an ugly season-opening division loss to the Steelers in Week 1 last year and still recovered to win the division. Consider that the Bengals went 1-5 against the Browns over the previous three seasons and still managed to win the division each of the past two. Burrow and the Bengals have enough in the bank at this point to deserve the benefit of the doubt.
The Browns, meanwhile, still need to show us. Deshaun Watson didn't look very good at all Sunday throwing the ball in the same rain Burrow was dealing with, going 16-of-29 for 154 yards, one touchdown pass and one interception. And until we truly see him look like the old version of himself, we have to approach the Browns' season expectations with more than a little bit of restraint.
Tyreek Hill will be the first wide receiver to win the MVP award
Chargers-Dolphins was a heavyweight fight. But not like a real heavyweight fight. More like the kind you see in the movies. The teams traded touchdowns all day until the Chargers ran out of time at the end and the Dolphins got away with a massive 36-34 season-opening victory.
The center of it all was Hill, who hauled in 11 catches for 215 yards and three touchdowns. Career game? Nah. It's the third time in Hill's career he has reached the 215-yard mark in a single game (his career high is 269). This was his high number as a Dolphin, though, and Miami needed every last yard to help quarterback Tua Tagovailoa outduel Justin Herbert in an instant-classic matchup of the No. 5 and No. 6 picks from the 2020 draft.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Why not? Hill is an alien sent from outer space to help make coach Mike McDaniel look like a genius and Tagovailoa thrive as an NFL quarterback. He was uncoverable on Sunday, and again, this isn't the first or even the second time he has put up these kinds of numbers. He's the first player in NFL history to record three separate games with 10-plus catches, 200-plus receiving yards and two-plus touchdowns.
Is he going to do it every week? Of course not. But he's capable of it, and by now we should expect something spectacular from this guy every week.
Look, you and I both know that if the Dolphins have a big year and Hill is putting up numbers like this, it means Tagovailoa probably has a better chance to win MVP than any of his receivers do. But Hill is the kind of player who does unprecedented things. If a receiver is ever going to win MVP, he's a guy who could put up the numbers to do it.
The Cowboys are the NFC's most complete team
The Sunday night game was billed as Cowboys-Giants, but it felt more like Ivan Drago-Apollo Creed. Dallas scored a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdown in the first quarter, sacked Daniel Jones seven times, built a 26-0 halftime lead and never let the Giants feel like they had a chance en route to a 40-0 shutout. For all the offseason talk about how quarterback Dak Prescott and coach Mike McCarthy would make the offense work with McCarthy calling plays, the Cowboys barely even needed their offense as they picked up the 12th victory in their past 13 games against the division rival Giants.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Before we can say this with any certainty, we have to see at least something from a Cowboys passing offense that really wasn't needed Sunday night. Prescott threw for only 143 yards. It's impossible to draw any real conclusions about the Dallas offense from this game, so we have to wait at least a week -- and maybe longer, since the Cowboys play the Jets' defense next Sunday -- to see how the McCarthy/Prescott pairing really functions.
But there's little doubt the Cowboys have the parts to make their passing offense work, and the defense looks like it could be a complete juggernaut. Micah Parsons, Dante Fowler Jr., DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Osa Odighizuwa ... the Cowboys' defensive front just kept sending ferocious pass-rusher after ferocious pass-rusher at Jones all night. The depth they have up front on defense, combined with the depth they have on the back end, makes you wonder whether the defense -- not the offense -- could be the unit that writes the story of this Dallas season.
The Lions are legitimate Super Bowl contenders
After an offseason of teetering expectations for a team that hasn't won its division since 1993, the Lions went to Kansas City for the Thursday night season opener and came away with a hard-fought 21-20 victory against Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champs. They were far from perfect, because hey, it's Week 1. But the Lions' offensive line looked good (and how many other teams can we say that about right now?), Aidan Hutchinson was an absolute terror, and the back end of the defense does appear to be shored up from last year.
Add in the fact that defending NFC North champ Minnesota lost to the Buccaneers on Sunday, and Detroit opens 2023 in the driver's seat in its division. The confidence gained from actually winning the game against the Chiefs, as opposed to just playing well and falling short, is major for the Lions going forward as they look to justify the outside expectations as well as their own.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Too soon! There's a lot to like about the Lions, for sure. And if the Vikings' luck in one-score games is going to regress hard to the mean this year, after they set a league record with 11 one-score wins in 2022, then the opportunity is surely there. Based on the way those two teams looked in Week 1 -- as well as what they look like on paper -- it's fine to call them division favorites. Sure, the Packers hung 38 on the Bears, but Green Bay has a young team likely to experience some growing pains before it's all said and done.
But before we start talking about the Lions with the Eagles, 49ers and other top NFC contenders, let alone the elite franchises in the AFC, we're going to need to see some sustained success. Detroit has another tough one in Week 2 against the Seahawks, who I expect to be in that group fighting for the NFC's top seed (despite Sunday's disappointing loss to their perpetual nemesis, the Rams). Win that game, and we'll talk again next Monday.
The Packers were right to move on from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love
It was a tidy debut for Love as the Packers' newly anointed starter, beating the rival Bears 38-20 on the road in Chicago. Love was 15-for-27 for 245 yards, three touchdown passes and no interceptions. And he completed 8 of 10 passes on third or fourth down, converting seven for first downs.
He didn't have to be spectacular, as the Green Bay defense made life miserable for Justin Fields and the Bears' offense all day. But he was more than just solid. He turned in a performance that announced to the world that all of this -- following Rodgers and Brett Favre, and keeping the Packers competitive -- wasn't going to be too big for him.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This isn't to say I expect the Packers to win the division. I don't. They don't get to play the Bears every week, and the fundamental point here is that they're a very young team, at least on offense. And that's why it made sense to move on from Rodgers. They have a young receiving corps, which was never something Rodgers really preferred, and they're transitioning to the future at several key positions. It makes sense to install the young quarterback you drafted in the first round three years ago because you thought he could be a franchise quarterback.
If nothing else, it was time for the Packers to find out whether they were right about Love, and if so, to shepherd him into the starter's role. For better or worse, this is Love's team now. Throwing to Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave and eventually Christian Watson, Love has a supporting cast to grow with in Year 1 as QB1. The time to start the growing is now.