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senior NFL national reporter- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is finally here, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz heading into the season opener. Plus, they pick out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
Which team could be a playoff surprise? Who will break out this season? Will we see a veteran quarterback bounce back, and which rookie passer could stand out right away? Plus, what's the latest on lingering holdouts and looming contract negotiations? It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their reporting notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 1.
Jump to:
Playoff surprises | Breakout candidates
Rookie QBs | Veteran QBs
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
Who's your pick for an under-the-radar team that will make the playoffs?
Graziano: I got the Atlanta Falcons. I think the Saints are the favorites to win the NFC South, but (a) that's no guarantee, and (b) the division's team schedules look soft enough on paper that it's possible it sends more than one team to the playoffs. It's about time for the high-end draft picks the Falcons have been making on offense to click. And while a lot of this depends on quarterback Desmond Ridder being as good as Atlanta seems to believe he is, there is a fair bit of offensive talent on that roster around him. If nothing else, the Falcons should be fun to watch.
Fowler: Good call, Dan. Coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot aggressively improved the roster through free agency and the trade market, and the NFC South is open to just about anybody.
I'll take the Washington Commanders. Washington returns the core of a top-three defense that features an elite line. The offense is loaded at wide receiver. Sam Howell should have everything he needs to flourish in his second year. Despite the uncertainty around his game, the early returns in Washington have been good. He has looked the part. And Eric Bieniemy will spark the offense with a tough-minded identity.
Graziano: I like that pick, because I'm always looking for kooky things to happen in the NFC East. Something unexpected always does, and this would surely qualify. I agree about the talent the Commanders have on the offensive side, and while they have some concerns on the line, who doesn't? It's a big year for Bieniemy and coach Ron Rivera, and maybe the team rises to the occasion.
Which rookie QB will have the best 2023 season?
Fowler: Bryce Young. He probably has the best supporting cast among himself, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The word out of Carolina is his in-game acumen is as good as the Panthers could have hoped. Richardson has the highest ceiling, and Stroud might be the best pure thrower of the football, but based on the situation and ability to win right now, Young gets the nod for me.
Graziano: I agree. Young should play well right away, and he looks the part. I know we're getting a little happy on the NFC South so far here, but I wouldn't be totally stunned if Carolina were a sneaky playoff contender this season. I am, however, fascinated to see what kind of year Richardson has with the Colts. They think he's further along in his development than a lot of the pre-draft prognostication suggested, and while there are sure to be some ugly moments with a player this inexperienced, there are also going to be plays, drives and games where he looks like a guy who has more raw talent at the position than anyone we've ever seen.
Fowler: Yeah, Dan, the Colts are low-key pumped about Richardson. They like how he has worked behind the scenes, and coach Shane Steichen believes Richardson's versatility only expands the playbook. But the Colts are bracing for growing pains, and not just at quarterback. This feels like a transitional year in Indy.
How will Stroud do in the first month for Houston, Dan? He definitely looked more comfortable in the final preseason game.
Graziano: One of the things Houston will be watching (and has been watching) with Stroud is how he handles himself when the pocket gets messy around him. Quarterbacks who come from high-end programs like Ohio State don't tend to confront those situations as much in college and can sometimes get rattled when they suddenly find themselves in a league where the pocket gets messy all the time.
The Texans are happy with the way Stroud has picked up the offense, but it's about getting him into real game conditions and seeing how much he still has -- or doesn't have -- to learn about the speed, pace and intensity of NFL defenses. Add in the fact that Houston enters the season with some health issues on the offensive line -- a line on which the Texans spent major resources this offseason to give Stroud the best possible chance of immediate success -- and that first month could be a bit of a struggle.
Which non-rookie breakouts are you calling now?
Graziano: Bills running back James Cook. Buffalo RBs were tied for first in the NFL last season with an average of 4.9 yards per carry, and Cook's average was 5.7. The Bills drafted him in the second round in 2022 in part because they were looking for a pass-catching back, and I do believe he will be that for them. But he also has the ability to be an early-down runner with explosive playmaking traits the likes of which they haven't had in recent years. Buffalo knows it needs to diversify its offense at least a bit this year, and Cook is the kind of player who will help second-year coordinator Ken Dorsey evolve it.
Fowler: Cook is a solid pick. How about Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips? That's a name buzzing in league circles. He has massive potential and seems poised for his first double-digit-sack season after 8.5 and 7, respectively, in his first two campaigns.
Another player who should break out is Houston corner Derek Stingley Jr. Sauce Gardner was the crown of the rookie class last season, but he was the second cornerback taken in the 2022 draft, after Stingley. The LSU product might never match Gardner's star prowess, but he has major potential and should emerge as a playmaker in DeMeco Ryans' defense. He can play in the slot or on the outside, too.
Graziano: I feel like Houston is going to play some nasty defense right out of the gate for Ryans. I'm not sure how much the Texans will score, but they might give teams a tougher time, at least on the defensive side of the ball.
If we're naming defensive breakouts, I have to say I'm curious about the turned-over secondary in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are counting on a big year and a big jump from 2022 second-round cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. If the Bengals have an area of concern, it's on the back end of the defense, where they've overhauled things a bit since last year. Taylor-Britt could continue their recent tradition of developing and reloading at key positions on defense under coordinator Lou Anarumo.
Fowler: Yeah, Taylor-Britt should thrive in his second season. I'll toss out one more breakout candidate: Washington receiver Jahan Dotson. He's a savvy route runner who already has chemistry with Howell.
Which outcome is the most likely: Russell Wilson bounces back or Geno Smith disappoints?
Fowler: Let's go with Wilson's bounce-back because I don't expect Smith to disappoint. Everything is set up for Smith to do it again in Seattle, including a strong supporting cast, a winning culture, a staff that believes in him and comfort in the offensive system. Wilson is on his third offensive system in as many years and must reinvent himself. Coach Sean Payton's offensive savvy can help him with that. Losing Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick to injury won't assuage concerns, though. Overall, expect Wilson to improve his play from last season, but Smith is more of a sure thing at this stage.
Graziano: Yeah, if these are the two choices, I agree with you, Jeremy. I think Wilson will play better than he did last year, almost because he has to. I'm not sure I agree with the phrase "bounce back," because that would mean he plays the way he did in Seattle, and I'm not sure he ever reaches those heights again.
As for his successor in Seattle, I agree that Smith's 2022 season was not a fluke, and I expect him to thrive again. The Seahawks fortified things around him with early-round draft picks like receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet, and I see them as a real contender in the NFC along with the 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys.
What's your top upset pick for Week 1?
Graziano: Giants (+3.5) over the Cowboys. Dallas has won four in a row against the Giants and is an incomprehensible 11-1 against them over the past six years. Head-to-head domination like that just doesn't make sense in the rivalry-rich, always-competitive NFC East. A lot of it has to do with just how uncompetitive the Giants have been in recent years, but this is a new era under coach Brian Daboll, and I have a good feeling about this year's Giants team. Both of last year's games were decided by one score. I say Big Blue takes down the Boys on Sunday night.
Fowler: Steelers (+2.5) over the 49ers. Defensive end Nick Bosa has a new deal, ending his holdout, but he has missed significant time and might need Week 1 to knock off rust. Plus star linebacker Dre Greenlaw is nursing a hamstring issue, too. I love San Francisco's season outlook, but Pittsburgh can make a statement here, building off a strong preseason.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Fowler: I'm looking for Raheem Mostert to spark the Dolphins' rushing attack in Week 1. With Jeff Wilson Jr. on IR and rookie De'Von Achane coming off a shoulder injury, the stage is set for Mostert as a lead back. And he has proved he can handle that. In four games with 15 or more carries last year, Mostert produced 397 rushing yards at 6 yards per carry. The Chargers -- Miami's Week 1 opponent -- allowed 5.4 rushing yards per carry last season.
Graziano: Start Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III against a Rams defense that is going to need a lot of time to figure itself out. The Seahawks do like rookie Charbonnet and believe he'll be a strong complement to Walker, but as of now, they still view Walker as their starter at the position. At least in Week 1, expect them to get out ahead of the revamping Rams and for Walker to hit one or two of those big plays he became known for as a rookie.
What else are you hearing this week?
Graziano's notebook:
• While there has been a lot of attention paid to the looming Joe Burrow contract extension in Cincinnati -- which I still predict gets done either before or during this season -- the other big deal that the Bengals are working on is an extension for wide receiver Tee Higgins. There's some speculation around the industry that the final structure of Burrow's deal could depend on whether a Higgins deal gets done before it, and Burrow himself has talked about structuring a deal that allows Cincinnati to keep its great young core together.
But the Higgins deal is not done and might not be anytime soon, as the market for high-end wide receiver deals is likely awaiting resolutions on Justin Jefferson in Minnesota and CeeDee Lamb in Dallas. And the Bengals know star wideout Ja'Marr Chase is eligible for an extension next offseason. If they can't come to a resolution with Higgins, he and the Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. (another 2020 second-round pick who doesn't have to worry about the fifth-year option the way first-rounders do) could be the headliners of next spring's free agent wide receiver class.
• As of Wednesday afternoon, according to sources, the Chiefs hadn't totally given up on the possibility of tight end Travis Kelce playing in Thursday's opener. Kelce injured his knee during Tuesday's practice and is officially listed as questionable, but Chiefs coaches were working Wednesday on parallel game plans -- one with Kelce in it, and one without.
Noah Gray would be the proverbial "next man up" at tight end, but he's not going to be expected to perform at Kelce's level. If Kelce can't go, or if he's limited, look for the Chiefs to rely on second-year wideout Skyy Moore a fair bit. The coaches have been impressed with how much better he has picked up the offense after spending a year in it. They have big plans for Kadarius Toney, too, but after missing basically all of training camp with a torn meniscus, he might need some time on task to get his routes and timing down with quarterback Patrick Mahomes before the Chiefs can really unleash all they have planned for him.
• My understanding of what's going on with the Arizona QB situation, though it has been tough to get information on this: First, the expectation as of now is that the Cardinals go with Joshua Dobbs as the starter on Sunday. Dobbs just got there via a trade, but he worked with Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing last year in Cleveland and is a literal rocket scientist, so they aren't worried about him struggling to pick up the offense.
Second, rookie Clayton Tune is not a nonfactor in all of this. He's a player the Cardinals might want to take a look at while Kyler Murray remains out recovering from his knee injury. It's not clear whether Tune would have a chance to start a game or two should Dobbs struggle or whether the Cards have specific packages with him in mind, but he could certainly play at some point.
Third, they definitely plan to play Murray when he's ready. Whether he's a real option for them in 2024 and beyond, or whether they have to get him on the field so other potentially interested teams can get a look at him, the Cardinals are not planning to sit Murray out the whole year.
And fourth, whoever's playing QB in the meantime is probably going to do a lot of handing off.
Fowler's notebook:
• The Chiefs have braced to be without defensive tackle Chris Jones for the early portion of the season as he continues to hold out. As was told to me, the Chiefs know they need Jones for the stretch run to chase another Super Bowl title, but if they have to win a few shootouts in the early portion of the year, they can probably pull that off. They are hoping it doesn't come to that, but the sides are apart in negotiations. Teams I've talked to believe the Chiefs do not want to trade Jones, no matter how ugly this gets.
A few more points to note on Jones' conviction: He has made $67.5 million over his first seven seasons, according to Spotrac, and he's not at risk of signing bonus forfeiture, due to his current contract structure.
• The Vikings have been trying to extend receiver Jefferson's contract, but some people inside the league believe getting something done by Week 1 kickoff would be a mild upset. Perhaps Minnesota can pull it off, but the team has at least three years of contractual control due to a fifth-year option in 2024 and the ability to franchise-tag him after that. That alleviates pressure. And as was told to me, Jefferson is comfortable playing this year out in the absence of the right offer -- one that is sure to alter the market when completed, given his stature as one of the game's best players regardless of position.
Tyreek Hill's presence atop the receiver market also complicates matters, because his four-year, $120 million contract includes a non-guaranteed salary of $43.9 million in 2026. I'd be hard pressed to believe Jefferson would take less than $30 million per year on any deal. Lamb faces a similar situation as a 2020 first-round pick. The Cowboys have extended key players Terence Steele, Trevon Diggs and Malik Hooker this preseason and would like to secure Lamb, too. But like Jefferson, Lamb seems to be in no rush. For both players, the price for their services could climb after another big year.
• In other receiver news, the Bucs do not want to trade Mike Evans. His agent, Deryk Gilmore, set a Saturday deadline for extending his contract, but Evans, a 2024 free agent, would have strong value on the trade market around the deadline, according to multiple execs I asked. He just turned 30 but is still considered elite. He's a name to watch if Saturday comes and goes without a deal. Both sides want to see Evans retire a Buccaneer, but this is a team in transition, and Tampa Bay has young core players to sign, including safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and left tackle Tristan Wirfs.
Still, it wouldn't surprise if Tampa Bay at least makes an effort to extend Evans, based on its precedent for taking care of team staples.
• Washington receiver Terry McLaurin (toe) is hopeful about playing Sunday vs. Arizona. No firm determination yet, but the team feels he's trending in the right direction.
• People I've talked to believe Burrow (calf strain) will play Week 1. The Browns are preparing for that.
• Free agent quarterback Colt McCoy, recently released by Arizona, told me several teams are interested in signing him to play a 13th NFL season, but he's taking his time to make sure he's healthy and ready to go. McCoy was dealing with an elbow injury in the preseason. He would be an ideal backup for a contender.