Let's finish up the preview of the NFL season with my annual look at how each of the league's 32 teams can win the Super Bowl. Obviously, there's only one trophy to go around in the real world, but this preview isn't about depicting what is most likely to happen this season. It's a look at the universe each team might need to populate if it wants to deliver on its hopes and dreams and claim the Lombardi Trophy in February in Las Vegas.
At the end of a long summer when we've all spent months thinking about who will win Super Bowl LVIII, I know what you're thinking: Don't be ridiculous. There are probably six or seven teams that have a shot at winning the title, at best. The Chiefs probably are going to be representing the AFC because that's simply what happens just about every season. There's no point in even talking about scenarios in which two-thirds of the league advances to the championship game, because there's no hope of that happening.
Here's where I have to rely on history. Let's consider some of the teams that exceeded expectations in recent memory:
The 1999 Rams were coming off a 4-12 season and lost starting quarterback Trent Green to a torn ACL during the preseason. They had the sixth-longest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner won MVP, and St. Louis took home the hardware.
The 2001 Patriots had the league's seventh-longest odds heading into the season, and that was with Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. Bledsoe got hurt in September, unheralded backup Tom Brady took over and a team that had gone 5-11 the previous season upset the Rams to win the first of many Super Bowls.
The 2007 Giants were 15th in preseason Super Bowl odds and spent the summer wondering whether edge rusher Michael Strahan would return to the team. They upset the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.
The 2017 Eagles were tied for 14th in Super Bowl odds, alongside the Texans (who would go 4-12) and Vikings (5-11). After posting a losing record the previous season, the Eagles rode MVP-caliber play from Carson Wentz to a division title, then Nick Foles to a Super Bowl upset of the Pats.
The 2021 Bengals ranked 29th in the ESPN Football Power Index's estimation of Super Bowl chances heading into the season. Although they didn't claim the trophy, they made it far further than anybody expected, winning the AFC before falling just short in Inglewood, California, on the biggest stage.
With that in mind, I'm going to run through each team and the scenario that might lead it to winning the Super Bowl (or at least making a deep playoff run) during the 2023 season. In some cases, the best I can do is paint a picture for a divisional title and hope the team stumbles blissfully through the postseason riding fumble and field goal luck. For many, though, it's possible to imagine a scenario in which everything goes right and the team emerges as one of the best in football.
I'll run from worst to first in order of the expected Super Bowl odds in the FPI (Football Power Index), but I'll also give each team's chance of making it into the playoffs. You probably won't be surprised where things end, but you definitely won't be shocked to see where these rankings start:
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Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Arizona Cardinals
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 4.4%
The Cardinals certainly appear to be tanking after moving on from wideout DeAndre Hopkins, defensive lineman Zach Allen and linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons this offseason. New coach Jonathan Gannon seems to be confusing his players (and/or football writers) with unsolved riddles. Cardinals fans might pay more attention to potential No. 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams on Saturdays than to their NFL team on Sundays this fall. This seems like a "sim to end of season" campaign.
Of course, that idea makes this column so fun. The 2021 Bengals didn't initially seem like a Super Bowl contender either, but they sure did by the time we got to December. What would have to happen for the Cardinals to shock the world and actually make the short hop to Las Vegas in February?
Well, the NFC West would have to fall apart. The 49ers would need to be struck by a swath of injuries to their stars on offense, limiting the effectiveness of returning quarterback Brock Purdy. Geno Smith would need to turn into a pumpkin in Seattle, leaving the Seahawks with plenty of playmakers and nobody to toss them the football. And the Rams, who are seemingly reliant on the few stars they have left staying healthy, would need to endure another lost season. If coach Sean McVay is being linked to television jobs in December, it's good news for Arizona.
I'm not pretending the Cardinals are going to be good, but this is a universe in which they could win the NFC West with seven victories. In that world, they are dismal to start the season, much like the Dolphins were during their tanking season in 2019. They would hit the midway point of the season at 1-7, seemingly set on landing Williams with the top pick in April.
Then, quarterback Kyler Murray, who is starting the season on the physically unable to perform list while recovering from January surgery to repair a torn ACL in his right knee, comes back. Gannon's defense begins to coalesce and play faster. Suddenly, the schedule gets a lot easier. The Cardinals beat the Falcons and Texans. They top a compromised Rams team, and Murray ekes out an upset over the Steelers. Having won four straight, they hit their bye at 5-7. They win only one of their next three, but a home victory against the Seahawks in Week 18 is enough to claim the tiebreakers and win the division at 7-10.
Could the Cardinals beat the rest of the NFC in a race to the Super Bowl? We've seen Murray look like an MVP candidate before for stretches. They would get at least one home game and maybe a second if the top two seeds got upset in the divisional round. Everything would need to break their way, but that goes without saying in a universe in which Arizona converts a 0.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl into a trip to Vegas.
31. Houston Texans
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 15%
We've seen rookie quarterbacks transform a team that was in the doldrums before. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin sparked division titles in their first seasons with the Colts and Commanders in 2012, respectively. That's a high bar for C.J. Stroud to hit, but this is an organization that played with Davis Mills, Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel in 2022. If Stroud is merely a good signal-caller from Week 1, that's a significant upgrade for the Texans at the most important position in football.
The second most important position might be coach, and the Texans have to feel good about landing former linebacker DeMeco Ryans to take over. Ryans will hope to rebuild a defense that has struggled despite relying more heavily on veterans than the typical struggling team over the past two seasons. He doesn't have all the pieces that helped the 49ers thrive, but he does have a potential star pass-rusher in Will Anderson Jr. and young playmakers in the secondary in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr.
It's not difficult to imagine the Texans being better than people expect. They have a solid offensive line with a great left tackle, although that line is struggling with injuries at the moment. The secondary is exciting. Running back Dameon Pierce looked promising as a rookie last season, Stroud will get two promising new playmakers in tight end Dalton Schultz and 2022 second-round wideout John Metchie, who is back after having leukemia. As with the Cardinals, this won't come together quickly, but it might be a fully formed unit by the end of the season.
The AFC is the tougher conference, but the path to a division title is easier for Houston than it would be for Arizona. The Jaguars would likely need to lose quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a hair care accident. The Titans are in transition and have major question marks at multiple positions. The Colts can't get out of their own way and are rebuilding alongside Houston.
It's tough to envision a world in which the Texans can beat the Bengals, Bills and Chiefs in a postseason run, but Cincinnati did it from No. 29 two years ago when its quarterback went supernova. What if that happens in Houston?
30. Indianapolis Colts
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 17.1%
In what might be the most stacked conference of the past decade, 14 of the 16 teams in the AFC can credibly expect to compete for a playoff berth. The two exceptions are the Texans and Colts, both of whom will start rookie quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson is exciting, but he's a wildly inexperienced signal-caller who won't have the benefit of playing with star running back Jonathan Taylor for the first month of the season, if ever.
The path for the Colts to exceed all expectations involves a run-heavy attack with Richardson at the forefront. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, he's a special talent, and coach Shane Steichen will have him in an offense designed to minimize his weaknesses. Maybe Indianapolis will look feisty in the first month and general manager Chris Ballard will distract team owner Jim Irsay with a guitar and sign Taylor to a new contract. A defense that sorely missed injured Shaq Leonard for most of last season gets a boost from adding back the three-time All-Pro.
Unless Richardson is a prodigy, the Colts aren't making a deep playoff run. But winning the AFC South? It would take the Jaguars and Titans coming up greatly short of expectations, but stranger things have happened. Remember how quickly Jalen Hurts developed in Philadelphia? If Richardson improves as fast, Indy could make major strides. And if that happens, Steichen should be a Coach of the Year candidate, even if his team doesn't win the South.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 15.7%
FPI is sour on the Buccaneers. I'm not exactly optimistic about their chances, but it's easier to make a case for them succeeding than the algorithm suggests. This team isn't as deep on defense as it was during the peak of the Tom Brady era, but many of its stars are still around. The Bucs ranked 13th in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) last season, and that was with Shaq Barrett sidelined (torn left Achilles) and a banged-up secondary. If Tampa Bay can stay healthy on defense, coach Todd Bowles should have all the pieces he needs to produce a top-10 unit on that side of the ball.
The offense? That's a bigger ask, especially with star center Ryan Jensen out for the season after being placed on injured reserve (left knee). Wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still around, but the Bucs are retooling on the fly along the offensive line and starting over under center. Baker Mayfield won the quarterback battle in camp, and the veteran will have everything to play for as he hopes to secure his future as an NFL starter.
The easiest path for this team to surprise is Mayfield protecting the football, new offensive coordinator Dave Canales bringing a moribund running game back to life and the defense winning them 10 games in a wide-open NFC South. We've seen Mayfield get hot for stretches before and play his best football when people count him out. Well, FPI isn't a person, but the algorithm certainly is not expecting much from him or the Bucs this season.
28. Los Angeles Rams
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 19.4%
I already made the case for the Rams in my column on the four teams most likely to improve this season. Unfortunately, since that column was released, Cooper Kupp suffered a recurrence of his hamstring injury and is seeing a specialist away from the team. Kupp's status for Week 1 is a major doubt, and if the Rams can't get their star wideout healthy, their chances of surprising in the NFC West fall significantly.
Obviously, they need their big three of Kupp, quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Aaron Donald to stay healthy. They need the offensive line to return to form after an injury-riddled 2022. Donald will have to carry a defense full of inexperienced players on modest contracts; if coordinator Raheem Morris can coax a league-average performance out of the players he's working with on that side of the ball, he should be a head coach somewhere next year.
Like the Cardinals, the Rams need the teams ahead of them to fall short of expectations to return to the postseason after a one-year absence. Coach Sean McVay's track record of success before 2022 leads me to believe they will be more competitive than people expect if they can avoid a drastic run of injuries. If L.A. can stay healthy and develop a couple of impact players on defense around Donald, it might have potential for more. Nobody is going to want to play the 2021 champs in the postseason if they get there.
27. Las Vegas Raiders
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 11%
I wrote earlier that 14 of the 16 AFC teams could expect to compete for a playoff berth. The Raiders are the 14th and final team on that list, and their expectations might be misguided. Then again, if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy, it's hard to argue with the results; he has won 40 of his 57 NFL starts. If he can keep that ratio up in Vegas, the Raiders will be a playoff team. There's enough star power here that they should be competitive if those guys stay healthy and they don't go 4-9 in one-score games again.
In the NFC South, the Raiders would probably be favorites to win the division. In the AFC West, though? It's tough to see them blowing past the competition to claim the crown. Their path to a home Super Bowl would likely require the Chiefs to lose Patrick Mahomes for most of the season. Taking out two birds with one stone would create a wide-open AFC West and eliminate one of the best teams in the conference.
The Raiders were competitive with the Chiefs, Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers and 49ers last season. If Garoppolo makes the difference on offense and the secondary finally coalesces in coordinator Patrick Graham's second season, they can throw themselves right into the mix of potential playoff teams.
26. Washington Commanders
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 18.0%
The Commanders were much better than you think on defense last season. They ranked sixth in points per possession allowed, right alongside the Bills and Cowboys. You didn't notice because the other side of the ball did Jonathan Allen & Co. no favors: Carson Wentz and the offense lost the turnover battle eight times, and the Commanders went 2-6 in those games. With average play on offense, they would have been a playoff team.
With Sam Howell taking over as starting quarterback after an auspicious debut in Week 18, coach Ron Rivera is hoping to get something more than average play on offense. Howell is a 2022 fifth-round pick with one career start, but you can spin his inexperience as high variance. If he actually does exceed expectations, the Commanders have young playmakers around him and a promising new playcaller in Eric Bieniemy.
It's tough to see Washington rising up the NFC East when it was the only team in the division to miss the playoffs a year ago, but this is the same division that hasn't had a repeat champion since the Eagles did it with Terrell Owens in 2004. Expect the unexpected in the NFC East, right?
25. New England Patriots
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 19.1%
The Patriots lining up with the Commanders is fortuitous, since they're in similar situations. Like the Commanders, the Patriots fielded one of the league's best defenses last season. Like the Commanders, the Patriots failed to make it to the postseason because they turned the ball over inside the 5-yard line to cost themselves a key victory and were generally a mess on offense throughout the season. And like the Commanders, the Patriots made changes to fix the offense this spring, namely by hiring former Texans coach Bill O'Brien to serve as offensive coordinator.
If O'Brien gets quarterback Mac Jones back on track, the Patriots should be a playoff team. Remember, in 2021 they were 10-7 with the point differential of a 12.4-win team during Jones' rookie season, when he looked to be on track to become a star.
New England will have to overcome a stacked AFC East, but each of the teams in its division has problems. The Jets are relying on a 39-year-old quarterback and the guy who just sank Russell Wilson as his playcaller. The Dolphins have already lost cornerback Jalen Ramsey and have major questions about quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's ability to stay healthy for 17 games. The Bills are relying on veterans coming off injuries to keep the defense afloat. As for the playoffs, well, Belichick's track record as a designer speaks for itself.
24. Tennessee Titans
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 31.0%
The Titans were chugging along doing Titans things until the second half of last season, when Mike Vrabel's gang was felled by a rash of injuries and lost its final seven games. Tennessee also played the league's healthiest slate of opposing quarterbacks, as 98.8% of pass attempts against the Titans were thrown by their opposition's primary passer. The league average is closer to 75%, and defenses that were north of 95% in this category over the past two decades have improved by an average of 2.2 wins the next season.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and edge rusher Harold Landry will be back from injuries for Week 1, and while the Titans cleared out several big-name veterans from their roster this offseason, many of those players were struggling either to stay healthy or to live up to expectations. Pass-rusher Arden Key and offensive tackle Andre Dillard might not look like stars on paper, but they would be upgrades on Bud Dupree and Taylor Lewan if they're healthy for 17 games.
Vrabel's track record of helping to develop young players into impact contributors figures in here; it would hardly be a surprise if wideout Treylon Burks or cornerback Roger McCreary took the leap and became a star in their second seasons. With only the Jags as clear favorites ahead of them in the AFC South, the Titans have a clearer path to a division title than most teams in this range.
While the AFC seems loaded, remember that these Titans manhandled the Ravens on the road and went up 10-0 on the Chiefs in the 2019 AFC Championship Game before eventually falling to a magical performance by Patrick Mahomes. They've been a tough matchup for virtually every standout team in the AFC during the Vrabel era.
23. Carolina Panthers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 30.2%
The most unexpected seasons typically come from major upgrades at quarterback and/or coach. The Panthers might count on both, as rookie No. 1 pick Bryce Young replaces Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, while former Colts coach Frank Reich steps in for Matt Rhule and Steve Wilks, who finished the season as the interim.
The Panthers never got what they expected from Rhule or their post-Cam Newton quarterbacks, and unlike Anthony Richardson, Young is an advanced processor with significant college experience. Reich couldn't solve Indy's problems last season, but it's worth noting the Colts were much better with Reich (3-5-1, including a win over the Chiefs) than they were with replacement Jeff Saturday (1-7).
The Panthers also added defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who helped turn the Broncos into a formidable unit for most of 2022 before they faded in December. He'll get to work with a unit full of promising talent, although it will need to have star pass-rusher Brian Burns in the mix. Burns' status for Week 1 is unclear as he reportedly seeks a long-term contract. No team in this division has more young talent than Carolina, but its leap toward contending for a conference title would depend on key players such as Young, Burns and cornerback Jaycee Horn playing at a Pro Bowl level for 17 games.
22. Green Bay Packers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 30.2%
Do you believe in Jordan Love? The Packers do, and if they're right, they should be back contending this season. Matt LaFleur's stretch of three consecutive 13-win seasons came to a close amid a disappointing 2022 season in which Aaron Rodgers finished 26th in Total QBR. Love will be playing behind an offensive line that is the healthiest it has been since LaFleur got into town in 2019, and no team in the league has younger receivers. There's breakout potential throughout the offense, and Rodgers' stunning transformation back into an MVP winner under LaFleur suggests the coach should be able to get the most out of Love in the 2020 first-round pick's initial season as a starter.
The defense is usually what holds back Green Bay, and for all the first-rounders on this unit, it's on coordinator Joe Barry to turn it into something more than a few exciting individual players. Edge rusher Rashan Gary's return from a torn ACL in his right knee should help, but the Packers need to see steps forward from linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt.
For what it's worth, I'm more optimistic than FPI and think the Packers will be the fourth-best team in the NFC. Making a deep playoff run might require them to avoid their old nemeses from San Francisco.
21. Chicago Bears
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 0.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 37.2%
As you might have previously seen, I have the Bears atop my list of teams likely to improve. The last time that happened was 2018, and things went pretty well: Chicago jumped from 5-11 to 12-4, Matt Nagy won Coach of the Year and the team claimed an NFC North title. Everything else from that point forward didn't go as well, but Bears fans likely would be thrilled to see their team win the North after finishing with the worst record in football a year ago.
You don't need me to say their most likely path toward greatness would be a breakout season from quarterback Justin Fields, but for the Bears to really level up and compete at the top of the NFC, coach Matt Eberflus will need to unlock a new level from this defense. The former Colts coordinator got the rangy linebacker he wanted this offseason in Tremaine Edmunds, and safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Jaylon Johnson give Eberflus exciting players in the secondary. I'm concerned about the pass rush, but the late addition of Yannick Ngakoue added a reliable veteran to the mix.
The three-level upgrades on defense and the potential for a Jalen Hurts-esque leap from Fields gives the Bears obvious upside, although their chances of seeing everything break right still aren't high.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 1.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 34.0%
The FPI algorithm doesn't know it's actually impossible for Mike Tomlin to win any fewer than nine games, which gives the Steelers one of the league's highest floors. In all seriousness, Pittsburgh will be counting on a healthier season from edge rusher T.J. Watt, upgrades to the offensive line, and about six decades of successful drafting and developing yielding breakout seasons for quarterback Kenny Pickett and wideout George Pickens, among others.
I'm on the record as being skeptical of Pittsburgh's chances, but I'm writing about how things go right in this piece as opposed to what might go wrong. Pickett's development over the second half of the season was impressive, and even if his interception rate doesn't stick, the Steelers valued him as a potential franchise passer in Round 1 of last year's draft for a reason. If he makes the same second-year leap as Carson Wentz made for the Eagles in 2017, you know how that ended for Philly.
19. New York Giants
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 1.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 36.2%
Well, if it isn't another one of the teams on my likely-to-decline list! The Giants are counting on coach Brian Daboll to unlock even more out of quarterback Daniel Jones in his second season at the helm, and this time, Jones should actually have a stable set of receivers. Tight end Darren Waller should be the focal point of the passing attack, and running back Saquon Barkley will be on the field for Week 1 after a tumultuous offseason. The Giants will have to count on Jones, Waller and Barkley all staying healthy for full seasons to realize their chances, and that might rely on second-year tackle Evan Neal and rookie center John Michael Schmitz holding their own up front.
Don Martindale's defense will need to be better after succeeding only in the red zone and on third down last season. He'll get help from returning pass-rusher Azeez Ojulari and a new addition at corner in first-round pick Deonte Banks. In multiple spots, the Giants are counting on more meaningful players taking away snaps from positions filled by replacement-level talent last season. If they succeed and the stars live up to expectations, they could be right in the mix with the Cowboys and Eagles atop the NFC.
18. Denver Broncos
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 1.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 32.5%
I'm not sure how much the FPI model knows about head coaching, but the strongest case for the Broncos morphing into a Super Bowl contender relies on the man in charge. In December, they fired Nathaniel Hackett, who became the first coach to be let go before the end of his first season for on-field performance since 1978. They replaced him with Sean Payton, who went 152-89 in New Orleans, including a 17-4 mark over his final three seasons when one of Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston started at quarterback. There's a possibility Hackett to Payton will go down as the biggest upgrade by any team in any meaningful role this offseason.
That team in 1978 was the 49ers, and they hired Bill Walsh in 1979. Unfortunately, they went 2-14 in 1978 and stayed 2-14 in 1979. Hiring a great coach isn't enough. Payton is actually going to need some of the old Russell Wilson. He'll count on expensive investments up front and the running game to help shoulder more of the load, but let's be realistic: If the Broncos actually compete for a Super Bowl this season, it'll be because Payton unlocked the quarterback Denver expected to acquire when it traded all those picks to land Wilson a year ago.
A defense that ranked second in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed through Week 11 before fading badly down the stretch gives the Broncos a top-five ceiling on that side of the ball. The league's most-injured team from 2022 already is down wideout Tim Patrick on offense and slot corner K'Waun Williams on defense, but Denver has a true No. 1 cornerback in Patrick Surtain; playmakers on all levels in safety Justin Simmons, defensive lineman Zach Allen and edge rusher Randy Gregory; and a coordinator who has made things work on the cheap for years in Arizona in Vance Joseph. The schedule will obviously be tough in the AFC West, but the Broncos are much scarier on paper than their preseason chatter would suggest.
17. Atlanta Falcons
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 1.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 50.5%
Finally, the Falcons have a defense! After years of running out defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, cornerback A.J. Terrell and a cavalcade of overpaid veterans or overmatched young players, Atlanta has added significant talent in free agency. Coordinator Ryan Nielsen should run out as many as seven new starters this season, including veterans with a track record of turning teams around in defensive end Calais Campbell and safety Jessie Bates. A defense that hasn't been good since the peak of the Dan Quinn era finally has the players to deliver even a league-average performance in 2023.
A league-average defense with the offense we saw in 2022 would be a playoff team this season, especially coming from the NFC South. Falcons fans are optimistic that quarterback Desmond Ridder in his second season will be an upgrade on the oft-frustrating Marcus Mariota, and rookie Bijan Robinson gives Arthur Smith yet another playmaker in Atlanta's run-happy offense. The path for the Falcons looks a lot like that of Smith's former employers in Tennessee: Remember that the Titans advanced to the AFC Championship Game with an unwanted Ryan Tannehill in 2019 and claimed the 1-seed in the AFC two years later.
16. Minnesota Vikings
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 48.7%
What if the Vikings don't regress? In my decline column, I looked at teams that were similar outliers to the Vikings and found examples from the past that drastically improved their level of play to sustain their record the following season. The 1999 Titans, for example, went 13-3 with a 9.8-win point differential and a 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. I was in high school at the time, but if I had been writing, I would have pegged the Titans as an easy decline candidate for 2000.
Instead, the Titans went 13-3 again in 2000, this time with the point differential of a 12.9-win team. That's the leap the Vikings have to make, and there are reasons to believe they could get there. Aaron Rodgers is out of the NFC North. Coordinator Ed Donatell's passive defense is gone, replaced by the well-regarded Brian Flores. Veterans such as wideout Adam Thielen, linebacker Eric Kendricks and running back Dalvin Cook had bigger names and contracts than their 2022 production; it's entirely possible new arrivals, including edge rusher Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy, unlock a new level of play for Minnesota on the defensive side of the ball.
Even if the Vikings get back to the postseason, the presence of Kirk Cousins at quarterback means they're hopeless, right? Well, not so fast. Cousins is 1-4 in his five playoff starts, but remember that Matt Ryan was also 1-4 as a postseason starter before making it to the Super Bowl and coming within a defensive meltdown of claiming the trophy. Ryan didn't win the big game, but Peyton Manning was 3-6 in his first six trips to the postseason before winning four straight and a Super Bowl in 2006.
Cousins obviously isn't up to Manning's caliber, but I bring up Manning's run to point out that the Colts won four games without a great performance from their quarterback, who threw three touchdown passes against seven picks and posted a passer rating of 70.5. The Vikings probably can't rely on Cousins to carry them to a title, but if he can get them into the postseason, the rest of the roster might do enough to bring their quarterback along for the ride.
15. New Orleans Saints
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 57.6%
The Saints were the league's oldest team a year ago and project to be there again in 2023, but old doesn't have to mean falling apart. New Orleans was excellent on defense and returns all of its secondary, its two best linebackers in Demario Davis and Pete Werner and its best pass-rusher in Cameron Jordan. The offense swaps out Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston for a higher-floor quarterback option in Derek Carr and has stars up and down the lineup. All of that in a package with the league's easiest schedule by everybody's metrics? It seems like the Saints have a direct path to a home game in mid-January, and that's not going to be a fun matchup for a 5- or 6-seed on the road.
The FPI isn't as optimistic about their chances of making a deep run because it recognizes the flaws in Carr, the slim chance of getting a full season out of Michael Thomas and the downside for a defense relying so heavily on standouts after age 30. In this universe, though, we're just trying to identify the outcome that leads to a Super Bowl victory, and that's simple: Have every name you know on this roster produce something like their peak seasons.
14. Cleveland Browns
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 44.1%
The Browns look attractive on paper. We'll leave aside the quarterback, but Nick Chubb is the best back in football, running behind one of the league's best lines. Amari Cooper reemerged as a No. 1 wideout last season. Myles Garrett is one of the three best pass-rushers in football, and he never has had more help up front with Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson added in the offseason. If new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz can coach up a secondary with three first- and second-round picks (and former Chiefs safety Juan Thornhill) into a passable unit, Cleveland really doesn't have a weakness on offense or defense.
Of course, the big "if" is whether Deshaun Watson is the guy the Browns traded three first-round picks to acquire or the one who looked lost and a shadow of Jacoby Brissett in the same offense a year ago. If Watson is right, this is one of the league's most complete teams. If he struggles in Kevin Stefanski's offense for a second season, the Browns have no hope of competing in a stacked AFC North. Anything from 4-13 to 13-4 is on the table.
There might not be a team with a higher ceiling and lower floor this season than the Browns, which makes them the perfect team for this exercise. Crucially, they have the players who could create problems for each of the top teams in the AFC. They can rush Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow with four. They can run the ball on the Chiefs and Chargers. I'm not sure they can stop the run, but unless the Ravens make a deep trip into the postseason, the Browns would generally be facing pass-happy offenses.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 61.6%
The Jaguars played like a Super Bowl contender in the second half of last season. After starting 2-6, they returned from London and went 7-2 stateside. They outscored their opponents by 4.4 points per game, posted a turnover margin of plus-7 and beat the Ravens and Cowboys. Crucially, Trevor Lawrence played like the quarterback who had been promised, as his completion percentage (69.7%), completion percentage over expected (plus-2.5%), interceptions (two) and passer rating (104.6) all ranked in the top five in the league.
It might be tough for the Jags to keep up that turnover margin, but this marks the point at which it's officially not difficult to imagine teams going on championship runs. The Jaguars are clear favorites in the AFC South and have a franchise quarterback who appeared to make the leap last season. They didn't get much out of rookie first-round defenders Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd for the majority of 2022; I'm willing to assume Lawrence remains a top-five quarterback, but the defense's strides might determine whether the Jags land in a tier with the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals by the end of the season.
12. New York Jets
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 47.2%
Take a great defense from 2022. Add a four-time MVP quarterback. Throw in a star running back for fun. It's that easy! If the Jets get the Aaron Rodgers who dominated in 2020 and 2021 and combine that with the devastating defense that kept them afloat in 2022, they're a Super Bowl-caliber team, regardless of what the competition looks like in the AFC East. I'm on the record as being skeptical of that possibility for various reasons, but this isn't a column about skepticism.
In their ideal outcome, the Jets would see their turnover rate spike after they forced just 16 takeaways last season. They also would protect the football much better with a quarterback who hadn't posted double-digit interceptions in a season since 2010 before doing so last season. They would be a really fun AFC Championship Game matchup with the Chiefs; would New York coach Robert Saleh stick Sauce Gardner on Travis Kelce? Could Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo successfully blitz Rodgers into making mistakes? We'll get a preview of that matchup when the Jets travel to Arrowhead Stadium in Week 4.
11. Seattle Seahawks
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 2.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 53.7%
Last year, the Seahawks' big question was Geno Smith and whether he could be a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. This season, there might be more questions about the rest of the roster than there are about the reigning Comeback Player of the Year. Can safety Jamal Adams ever return to the form the Seahawks hoped he'd have when they traded two first-round picks to acquire him? Will Seattle's four top-52 picks, including first-round wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, make an instant impact in the way that offensive tackle Charles Cross and cornerback Riq Woolen did a year ago? Will Devon Witherspoon be a star cornerback in Week 1? Can Dre'Mont Jones be the interior disruptor the Seahawks need? Will the Seahawks get the Bobby Wagner who was a cap casualty in 2021 or the linebacker who was a difference-maker for the Rams a year ago?
The hope will naturally be that most of these answers go the Seahawks' way. If so, they have every shot at usurping the 49ers atop the NFC West, especially if San Francisco battles injuries to its key contributors on the offensive side of the ball. If Seattle makes a leap to 12 wins, the NFC East might battle itself into a division where no team wins more than 11 games, landing Seattle the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. That's what Pete Carroll & Co. held in 2013 and 2014, and those seasons yielded consecutive trips to the Super Bowl.
10. Miami Dolphins
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 3.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 51.6%
The Dolphins were the league's best offense when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was right last season. Their defense wasn't of the same caliber, but they imported vaunted defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey and wildly underrated linebacker David Long to shore things up. Ramsey is out until December because of a left knee injury, but if things break right come the postseason, there might not be a more complete team on both sides of the ball in the league.
Of course, the Dolphins already are dealing with a key absence in Ramsey, and further injuries suffered by Tagovailoa could jeopardize his career, let alone the team's chances of competing for a Super Bowl. Even missing two or three games might eliminate the possibility of winning the AFC East, which seems ominous for a team that has won exactly one road playoff game since its perfect season in 1972.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 4.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 52.4%
On the most recent episode of my podcast, I talked to The Ringer's Robert Mays and asked him what he would want to know about the 2023 season if he had a crystal ball. One thing we both wanted to know was how many of Los Angeles' stars actually stay healthy. It sadly has become an annual question. The Chargers' top 10 players -- Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, J.C. Jackson, Derwin James, Corey Linsley, Khalil Mack, Rashawn Slater and Mike Williams -- are arguably the best group, 1 through 10, of any team.
Those 10 combined to miss roughly 43% of the possible snaps they could have played last season. That number doesn't include Herbert somehow playing through fractured rib cartilage in September. The Chargers also lost most of their defensive tackles as the season went along, and while the improvements to their run defense cratered as a result, coach Brandon Staley & Co. were still good enough to make it to the postseason. (Don't ask about what happened once they got there.)
Everyone is present and accounted for to start this season, although it's unclear whether Jackson will be able to play a full complement of snaps in Week 1 as he returns from a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. If the Chargers have their stars missing for only 25% of their snaps this season, they'll comfortably be a playoff team. If you dare to dream and believe the number falls to 10% or less, well, that's where you start getting into scenarios in which they win the AFC West and look like the league's best team.
8. Detroit Lions
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 4.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 64.8%
Just take the offense from the second half of last season and combine it with the defensive improvements the Lions made this offseason. Easy enough. From Week 10 on, Detroit ranked second in EPA per play on offense, nestled between the Chiefs and the 49ers. Quarterback Jared Goff played the best football of his entire life, throwing 15 touchdown passes without a single interception.
The Lions turned the ball over just three times in that stretch, and that won't happen even under the best circumstances again, but that was an offense without rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta and essentially without wideout Jameson Williams, who caught one pass. Williams is suspended for six games, but the Lions could have the league's best offense around Goff once he returns. Having arguably the best offensive line in football should keep their floor high.
While everyone expects the Lions to compete for a division title, their chances of winning the top seed in the NFC and challenging for a Super Bowl have more to do with coordinator Aaron Glenn's defense. They could have as many as five new starters on that side of the ball, including four in the secondary if they choose to play rookie Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner-Johnson together at safety.
A defensive unit that ranked last in Total QBR allowed a year ago has nowhere to go but up, but if the Lions just improve to 27th or so, it won't register as a significant difference. If the offseason additions and pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson combine to get Detroit up to or even above league average, though? Watch out.
7. Baltimore Ravens
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 4.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 59.8%
There's more uncertainty around the Ravens and their upside than in previous years, which is both a positive and a negative. It's possible Baltimore wasn't going to get any further in the postseason than it did over the past four seasons with Greg Roman's offense, although I still think the best version of that team was let down by drops and sloppy play against the Titans in the 2019 playoffs as opposed to being figured out schematically.
The new offense being implemented by coordinator Todd Monken gives Lamar Jackson & Co. a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Maybe Jackson takes half a year to get comfortable and the Ravens start 2-5. Maybe everything works from Week 1, rookie wideout Zay Flowers looks like a superstar and the Ravens are the scariest offense in the league. The range of outcomes is probably higher than it was with the Roman offense, and that's conducive to the possibility of the Ravens leading the league in scoring this season.
I'm more concerned about the defense holding up its end of the bargain, although the Bengals are the only great passing attack the Ravens will play through the first six weeks of the season. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss Week 1, forcing the Ravens to start late-offseason addition Ronald Darby across from Rock Ya-Sin. Jadeveon Clowney gives coordinator Mike Macdonald a much-needed veteran pass-rusher, but Baltimore is still relying on David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh to take leaps forward in 2023. The Ravens likely will eventually have a great defense -- and the early-season schedule isn't extremely difficult -- but they would much prefer to win the AFC North instead of chasing a conference title out of a wild-card spot.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 6.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 68.0%
Algorithms don't have feelings or watch games, which can be good and bad. Anybody who has watched the Cowboys flail under coach Mike McCarthy in a pair of playoff losses isn't going to believe they have the sixth-best chance of winning a Super Bowl. His track record in Green Bay got worse as time went along, with the Packers memorably missing out on a trip to Super Bowl XLIX as McCarthy kept his foot on the breaks throughout a miserable loss to the Seahawks. McCarthy taking over the offense from Kellen Moore this season while suggesting that he will try to score less isn't inspiring, either.
I haven't spoken to the FPI, but I would guess it benefits from being less emotional. We're drawing conclusions from two playoff losses and combining them with about three decades of Cowboys postseason football, most of which has nothing to do with the players on this current roster. Dak Prescott is 2-4 in the postseason, but that includes maybe the best performance of the entire season by any quarterback in a blowout victory at Tampa last season. It also includes a game in which he drove the Cowboys back from a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game with 35 seconds to go, only for the defense to allow the other team to march downfield for a winning field goal. The guy on the other sideline that day? Mike McCarthy.
History is littered with coaches and quarterbacks who couldn't win the big one until they did. Ask Andy Reid or John Elway. We can't even make that claim about McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl as the 6-seed with the Packers in 2010. Skepticism over Prescott amounts to about 30% of all sports talk discussions on an annual basis, but we've certainly seen similar or lesser quarterbacks win Super Bowls. Eli Manning was 0-2 with two ugly home playoff losses before 2007. Joe Flacco fell short to the Colts, Patriots and Steelers four times before 2012. Trent Dilfer was benched by the Buccaneers for Shaun King and started the year as a backup with the Ravens before winning a Super Bowl.
All of those quarterbacks had great talent around them, but of course, so does Dak. The Cowboys' defense ranks third in EPA per play allowed over the past two seasons. The Dallas offensive line is the healthiest it has been in years heading into Week 1. Tony Pollard has finally been moved into the primary role at running back. This is arguably the league's most talented roster. Now, the Cowboys just have to get out of their own way and buck history.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 9.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 73.1%
You saw the Bengals come within a couple of plays of winning the Super Bowl two years ago. You also saw them blow out the Bills in Buffalo and give the Chiefs all they could handle in Kansas City before coming up just short in the AFC Championship Game a year ago. The line between Joe Burrow and Cincy winning a title hasn't exactly been very thick. This has been the hottest team in football during the second half of 2021 and 2022, and if it can just turn things on a little earlier in 2023, it should have a credible case to finish as the top seed in the AFC, which would finally mean home games in the divisional round and conference title game.
Can the Bengals get off to that blistering start in 2023? It depends on how quickly the new-look secondary coalesces, as the Bengals will start two new safeties in Nick Scott and Dax Hill. If cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is healthy and playing the way he looked before tearing an ACL last season, the Bengals should be able to hit their Week 7 bye with a winning record. And if they can keep up their second-half performance from years past afterward, the AFC bracket should run through Ohio.
4. Buffalo Bills
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 10.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 73.8%
Even in what felt like a disappointing 2022 campaign, the Bills had a strong case to be considered the NFL's best team. They comfortably led the league in DVOA, as the second-place Eagles were about as close to seventh place as they were to first. No team had a larger average margin of victory. The Bills did that in a year in which quarterback Josh Allen was limited by an elbow injury, edge rusher Von Miller went down with a torn ACL and the legendary safety partnership of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde played just 99 defensive snaps together before Hyde suffered a neck injury.
By the end of the season, the Bills looked physically and emotionally exhausted by injuries, the snowstorm that forced them out of town for a home game and Damar Hamlin suffering cardiac arrest against the Bengals. They weren't themselves afterward, spending too much time in a close game with a Dolphins team quarterbacked by Skylar Thompson before getting blown out by the Bengals. They should be refreshed and healthier on multiple levels after the offseason, although Miller will start the year on the physically unable to perform list.
The hope for the Bills has to be that we see the team that stomped full-strength versions of the Rams and Titans before beating the Ravens and Chiefs before last season's bye. The AFC East is obviously a minefield, but the Bills have shown the ability to beat anyone at any time over the past three seasons.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 11.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.5%
The Bills had a case for the best team over the entirety of 2022, but the 49ers might have been the best team at the end of the regular season. After their Week 9 bye, they ranked third in the league in EPA per play on offense and first by a considerable margin in EPA per play on defense. The Cowboys were the only other team that ranked in the top eight in both categories across the second half of the season, and they weren't doing that with their third-string quarterback under center.
Now, of course, the expectations for Brock Purdy are higher. The 49ers depend on a series of oft-injured offensive stars to prop up their inexperienced quarterback, and one of those players -- star tight end George Kittle -- might not be ready for Week 1. The defense has added tackle Javon Hargrave, but it's unclear whether edge rusher Nick Bosa's holdout will stretch into the season. There's a chance that the offense falls apart, Purdy turns into a pumpkin and the 49ers toil through a frustrating 2023 like the ones they endured in 2018 and 2020.
If anything, though, shouldn't Purdy be better with more experience? The 49ers are thinner along the offensive line and have a half-season of Purdy film for defensive coordinators to study, but if anybody's going to change the questions just as soon as other teams have the answers, isn't it Kyle Shanahan? If the 49ers are as good as they were during the second half of last season, their presence in the NFC would make them the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 11.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.6%
Guess who else has a case as the best team in 2022? Through the entire season -- stretching into Super Bowl LVII -- the Eagles ranked second in EPA per play on offense and fourth on defense. No team posted a better point differential, with the Eagles winning by an average of 9.3 points per game. Those numbers even include quarterback Gardner Minshew's two starts in place of an injured Jalen Hurts; when Hurts was under center, the Eagles went 16-2 and won their games by an average of more than 11 points per contest.
I'm already on the record suggesting the Eagles will decline in 2023, but it would take a catastrophic run of injuries (or a serious one to Hurts) to keep Philadelphia from ranking among the best teams in the NFC. There's too much here along the line of scrimmage, even without Javon Hargrave in the mix. The offense still seems like it might hit another level, especially given Hurts' astronomical year-over-year improvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the defense struggles, given the age at cornerback and the turnover up the middle at all three levels, but this is still one of the NFL's best rosters.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: 12.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 76.8%
It's difficult not to be flippant here. They're the Chiefs! You don't need me to tell you how they win the Super Bowl. They just won last season. They've been great for the entirety of the Patrick Mahomes era. If Mahomes is healthy, their floor seems to be 12 wins. With one of the league's youngest rosters, the Chiefs are as well positioned to repeat as champions as any team in recent memory.
Well, until Tuesday. Already dealing with the possibility of starting the season without defensive tackle Chris Jones because of a holdout, they were forced to face another uncomfortable scenario when Travis Kelce left practice because of a hyperextended knee. It's unclear whether the legendary tight end will be able to play Week 1, which would be a stunning turn of events for a player who hasn't missed a game because of an injury since his rookie season in 2013. (Kelce did miss a game after being placed on the COVID-19 list in 2020.)
We don't have much of a sample of what the Chiefs' offense looks like without Kelce. He has seen his participation rate drop from a peak of 95% in 2018 to 80% last season, but coach Andy Reid is typically good about getting him off the field late in blowouts or as part of specific personnel packages. Mahomes hasn't dropped off much without Kelce, but that might be because defenses are so used to looking for that star tight end that their coverages might automatically extend to watching him at the Gatorade cooler.
Starting a game without Kelce -- or missing him for an extended period of time -- is a different story. This offense doesn't have Tyreek Hill or JuJu Smith-Schuster. The preseason hype has been for unproven players, such as Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross. They are exciting prospects, sure, but not No. 1 receivers. The Chiefs managed to win a Super Bowl after trading Hill, but that was with a dominant season from a future Hall of Famer at tight end. Winning without Jones seemed tough. Winning without Jones and Kelce? Even with Mahomes and Reid, that might be impossible.