This NFL offseason featured enough jersey-swapping via free agency and trades to satiate the league's fervent fandom.
Aaron Rodgers emerged from the darkness retreat a New York Jet back in April. Four months later, Dalvin Cook joined him in green. At receiver, Odell Beckham Jr. became a Baltimore Raven, DeAndre Hopkins a Tennessee Titan, DJ Moore a Chicago Bear and Brandin Cooks a Dallas Cowboy. At quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo left the Bay for the high-wattage lights of Las Vegas, a job that became available because of Derek Carr's release and eventual signing with the New Orleans Saints. And that's not counting first-round rookie quarterbacks starting Week 1 for the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.
But the players and coaches still donning their 2022 team colors will mostly dictate the pace of the season. Patrick Mahomes enters Year 7 in Arrowhead. Josh Allen will make his 77th career start for Buffalo this week. From the 2020 draft class, Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, the Chargers' Justin Herbert, Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa are entering their primes. Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams settle into Year 2 of their market-setting deals in Miami and Las Vegas, while Justin Jefferson might flirt with 2,000 yards in his fourth season in Minnesota. Christian McCaffrey eyes a banner second season in San Francisco. On defense, several elite pass-rushers jockey for position and plenty of young breakout stars await.
Now is when the hype subsides and the preseason drama gives way to the real-life theater of Week 1.
Finally, it's all about performances, matchups and stars. That's why we asked league execs and scouts to sort out which stars will shine brightest in 2023. Who will win the game's top awards at season's end. Why wait until Feb. 11 -- when the NFL's first Las Vegas Super Bowl is upon us -- to know? From MVP to Rookies of the Year, finding a consensus from the league was tough. Finding a surprise was not.
Jump to:
MVP | OPOY | DPOY | OROY | DROY
Comebacks | Breakouts | Top coach
Most Valuable Player: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
We could set the default answer to Patrick Mahomes every year with little complaint. Several execs said the same line on Mahomes: "He's on another level." And he is.
But Burrow has gained traction as the league's second-best quarterback in the eyes of many. And he has made steady progress on the award circuit, earning Comeback Player of the Year in 2021 and finishing fourth in the MVP voting last season. He has thrown a combined 69 touchdowns the past two seasons. And he might have the best receiver tandem in the league with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
"He's in the fourth year in [Zac Taylor's] system, he's had [most of] the same receivers for all four of those years, same coaches, same offensive line for the most part," an AFC exec said. "He's refined. It's another level of advancement that comes each year. I thought he was playing as good as Mahomes late last year."
What helps Mahomes' case: Expect the Chiefs to win some shootouts early in the year should Chris Jones continue his holdout.
Also creating buzz: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Too many good candidates here. Executives selected Justin Jefferson last year and he won thanks to a historic third NFL season. This year, the pick is McCaffrey, who now gets a full season in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
McCaffrey averaged nearly one touchdown per game in 11 games with the 49ers, who acquired him from Carolina before the trade deadline.
"He didn't get to San Francisco until late October last year -- he should be way more in tune with the offense early," an AFC exec said. "1.5K rushing yards and 100 catches should be relatively easy for him."
Last season, McCaffrey hit nearly 1,900 total yards (741 receiving) while spread over two different offenses.
"He's the perfect weapon for a quarterback like Brock Purdy," an NFC personnel official said.
Also creating buzz: Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers; Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
In predictable fashion, the top four edge rushers from our summer rankings earned votes.
Garrett and Watt were essentially dead even, so we went with both. The argument for Garrett is simple: He has been knocking on the door for a while with back-to-back 16-sack seasons.
"He's a great player who hasn't really had his signature moment yet, and this might be the year," an NFL scouting official said. "He's going to have more help around him, which should allow him to get loose more. The defense [under new coordinator Jim Schwartz] will constantly be attacking."
The Browns added defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith to the arsenal via free agency and the trade market.
Those who picked Watt see a storm coming after he missed much of last season with a pectoral injury. Watt has averaged 17.3 sacks per year since 2020.
"There's been a lot of hype around Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons and others and T.J. is going to remember that," an AFC scout said. "I'm all-in on him having a huge year."
Also creating buzz: Nick Bosa (49ers), Micah Parsons (Cowboys), Maxx Crosby (Raiders)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
You can't go wrong with either of the top running backs in the draft, Gibbs or Atlanta's Bijan Robinson, who is considered the more complete back.
But Gibbs might have the fastest route to instant production, due to his role, big-play ability and supporting cast.
"I think he'll have an Alvin Kamara-type presence for the Lions with big plays and pass-catching ability," an NFL personnel director said. "Which will push them over the top. They are a hot team. And he's a major talent."
Gibbs wowed in training camp, showing off his speed to outrun linebackers and safeties on passing plays out of the backfield. And as one AFC executive said, "I trust Detroit's offense a little more than I do [Atlanta's] at this stage."
Another trendy name here: Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has been as advertised so far. "He might catch 75 passes this year," an AFC scout said.
Also creating buzz: Bijan Robinson (Falcons), Dalton Kincaid (Bills), Zay Flowers (Ravens)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter, DT, Philadelphia Eagles
Some evaluators agree that Carter was possibly the best singular talent in the 2023 draft. He fell to ninth overall to the Eagles, who add another explosive player to their defensive line.
"If not for character stuff, he would have gone in the top four to five," an AFC exec said. "As long as he stays the course during the season, he'll have a huge year. A strong defensive line around him will help him."
Carter is slated to start alongside former All-Pro Fletcher Cox, with former Georgia Bulldogs teammate Jordan Davis in the mix at defensive tackle. Questions persist about whether Carter can produce consistently.
"He's a flash player, so he will have some wow moments, but I'm not sure the consistency will be there," a high-ranking NFL personnel evaluator said.
Also creating buzz: Emmanuel Forbes (Commanders), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans)
Comeback Player of the Year: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Baltimore Ravens
Instead of signing with a team late in 2022, Beckham decided to bag the entire season to ensure full health on his reconstructed knee and become the premier free agent wideout in the 2023 class.
His value on the open market was immense, as he locked in a one-year, $15-million deal that's almost entirely guaranteed. The deal was so good that it essentially cratered DeAndre Hopkins' trade market with Arizona because star receivers looking for new teams wanted the Beckham treatment.
Now, after multiple knee injuries, the stage is set for Beckham to produce his first 1,000-yard season since 2019. "I've heard he looks good, and [the Ravens] have enough other receiving options to where he won't have to be doubled all of the time," an NFL personnel executive said. "I don't know if he'll have a monster year but he'll be good enough to where you say, 'OK, he missed an entire year and still played at a good, winning level.'"
Also creating buzz: Calvin Ridley (Jaguars), Breece Hall (Jets)
Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Somehow, despite 163 wins since 2007, Tomlin has zero Coach of the Year wins. But Tomlin and general manager Omar Khan have stockpiled serious talent on both sides of the ball over the past two years. This feels a bit like the 2014-17 Steelers, who emerged from two down years with a revamped offensive line and a potent aerial attack. And any defense with T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Heyward is sure to be stout. "You know, as a baseline, Tomlin's teams are always going to be pretty good, and if the quarterback can deliver, they have a chance to be really good," an NFC exec said.
Also creating buzz: Mike McDaniel (Dolphins), Pete Carroll (Seahawks)
Breakout player: Jaelan Phillips, OLB Miami Dolphins
Phillips' name comes up a lot in the conversation around ascending young talents on defense. The Dolphins are incredibly high on him, and so is most of the league.
Phillips has yet to record his first double-digit-sack season but is poised to do it.
"He's on his way to being a really high-end edge rusher," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "He's been good to very good. "You saw him start to improve on the nuances of the game late last year, and with a coach like [defensive coordinator Vic] Fangio, that will only help him and he'll take a jump."
Also creating buzz: Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans), George Pickens (Steelers)