The first weekend of 2023 NFL regular-season action has arrived. We're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 1 slate, but just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Is the Browns' offense comparable to the Bengals' unit?
The Bengals' offense averaged 0.08 EPA per play last season with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field, which ranked sixth in the NFL. The Browns' offense with Jacoby Brissett on the field? It was at 0.07 EPA per play. Is it fair to look at the Browns' number with Brissett, who is long gone, especially considering they were far worse with Deshaun Watson (minus-0.08)? Probably not entirely. But is it too much to ask of Watson to play at a Brissett level in 2023? If Watson can get back to being average to above average, then the Browns' offense (perhaps a little underrated last year) might be closer to the Bengals' offense (perhaps a little overrated last year) than their reputations indicate.
Will the Jags' Calvin Ridley acquisition pay off?
I'm not sure the impact of Ridley's addition to the Jacksonville roster can be overstated, and I think we'll see his effect right away, starting with the Jags' game against the Colts on Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence remains underrated because he has been surrounded by poor talent, including bad pass protection in front of him and weaker wide receivers. The Jaguars ranked 26th in Overall Score as a team last season (wide receivers and tight ends only) in our Receiver Tracking Metrics. But the last time we got close to a full season of Ridley in 2020, he was a star in those RTMs, posting an 81 Overall Score, sixth-best that season. His 90 Open Score -- the most important and stable of the three categories -- ranked fourth-best.
Can Justin Fields fix his sack-taking habits?
Fields' habit of taking sacks was a major flaw last season; he took them at an absurd 12.5% rate, and no other qualifying QB was in double digits. He took 55 sacks in all, which tied Russell Wilson for the most in the NFL. Will changes to Chicago's offensive line help, including using a first-round pick on right tackle Darnell Wright? Will Fields change the way he plays? I'm personally skeptical, and it's a big reason why I'm down on the Bears going into Sunday (and this season). The opener against Green Bay is our first look at whether the Bears have answers, but that sack rate has to come down -- a lot -- if Fields & Co. expect success this year.
Will Zach Charbonnet have a receiving role in his Seahawks debut?
We can imagine a lot of ways the Seahawks will score serious points against the Rams' young, unproven defense. One way, and one that might just happen, is a big day for Charbonnet as a receiver. The Rams led the league in zone coverage last season, using it 74% of the time. Given their defensive roster, I have to assume that high usage will continue. But why is that relevant to Charbonnet? It turns out that running backs make receptions twice as often against zone coverage (16% of dropbacks) compared to man coverage (8%). Charbonnet is likely the better receiving back between him and Kenneth Walker III, so I'm expecting the rookie to be the main beneficiary in Week 1.
Is NFL pass rushing ahead of pass protection?
This is more of a leaguewide trend to watch, but the data suggests offensive lines really need more time to jell. Since 2018, pass block win rates across the league are lower in Week 1 than any other week (55% compared to 58% on average). Interestingly, this doesn't result in a higher sack rate, perhaps in part because QBs also average their fastest time to pass in Week 1 over that span (2.71 seconds compared to 2.76 seconds on average). If I had to make a prediction about which teams this will hurt most, I'd look at Tampa Bay and Washington, who have had offensive line shake-ups since last season.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (48.5% rostered)
Everett set career highs in receptions (58) and receiving yards (555) in 2022, and his 15 red zone targets were the sixth-most among tight ends. He's part of a great Chargers' offense, with an excellent quarterback play in Justin Herbert and a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, who's expected to elevate it in 2023. And the Dolphins' defense allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. If you're looking for a Travis Kelce replacement in the opening week, Everett is a good option.
Deon Jackson, RB, Indianapolis Colts (36.1% rostered)
With Jonathan Taylor on the Physically Unable to Perform list for the first four games of the season, Jackson will likely start against the Jaguars. Yes, the Colts running back by committee will also include Zack Moss to begin the season, but he missed time with a broken right arm this summer, and even though he practiced on Wednesday, his Week 1 role is uncertain. Jackson is my preferred fantasy option in the Indianapolis backfield, and he could have a receiving role in Week 1. The Colts might find themselves trailing, which matters because Jackson led the Colts' backfield in targets over the final four games of last season (12).
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos (15% rostered)
New coach Sean Payton traded up into the second round of the draft to select Mims, who led Oklahoma in receiving yards in all three of his seasons there. He has the speed to make plays, too. Only three receivers posted faster 40-yard dash times than Mims' 4.38 at the combine in March. Injuries have decimated the Broncos' receiver room this summer, and Jerry Jeudy -- despite being limited in Wednesday's practice as he recovers from a hamstring injury -- could be ruled out. With Mims' big-play ability, he has a favorable matchup against a Raiders secondary that gave up the fourth-most passing yards last season.
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (10.9% rostered)
Howell has a great opportunity to make a statement as Washington's new starting quarterback against the Cardinals, who are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Arizona's defense ranked near the bottom of the league in total yards and points allowed per game in 2022, and the Cardinals' roster suggests that history could repeat itself in 2023. Howell is a solid QB2 option in superflex formats and deeper leagues, throwing to Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas, and he can also accumulate fantasy points as a runner.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (1.9% rostered)
The Rams will need other wide receivers to step up as Matthew Stafford's top targets while Cooper Kupp is out with a hamstring injury. Having risen up Los Angeles' depth chart through training camp and the preseason, Nacua has sleeper potential in Week 1, and I think he will receive some targets. He led BYU's receiving corps with 91 catches, 1,430 receiving yards and 11 touchdown receptions over his final two seasons there. Nacua shouldn't be overlooked by managers in deep formats, especially if Kupp ends up on IR.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
George Pickens will score a touchdown vs. the 49ers
Pickens had a vertical route percentage of 49.1% in his rookie 2022 season. That's a big number and easily ranked No. 1 in the league. And I wouldn't be surprised if Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett takes a shot to the end zone on Sunday when Pickens is aligned to the backside of a 3x1 set as the boundary receiver. Pittsburgh can isolate Pickens when they have the ball in the strike zone area of the field, between the 20- and 35-yard line, creating a one-on-one matchup to attack.
The Commanders' defense will have more than four sacks
I see matchup advantages across the defensive front -- which includes Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat, while Chase Young won't play -- for Washington against Arizona. Washington ranked 10th in the NFL last season with 42 sacks, and it can create pocket disruption off the edge or from the interior against a shaky Cardinals offensive line.
Lamar Jackson will throw at least two touchdown passes
I'm excited to watch this Ravens' offense under new coordinator Todd Monken, and I'm expecting a lot of spread concepts, trips and empty sets. Monken will look to widen the field and create more space for Jackson as both a runner and thrower. The Ravens quarterback can use the team's upgraded pass-catching talent (including new additions Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers, along with a healthy Rashod Bateman) to attack the Houston secondary. Jackson threw multiple touchdown passes in four of 12 games last season, but you can expect that number to jump in 2023, starting on Sunday.
DJ Moore will log more than five receptions
Look for Moore to be deployed on wide receiver screens and underneath crossers in his first game with the Bears. These are quick, high percentage throws for Justin Field, and they create opportunities for Moore to get loose after the catch, where he can use his ball carrier vision and physical play to pick up big chunks of yardage. Fields' 3.1-second average time to throw last season ranked second-longest in the league, but Chicago will try to get the ball out with speed to their new No. 1 target while also limiting the Packers' pass rush. Moore's over/under for receptions in Week 1 is 3.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, but he could get plenty of looks.
Riq Woolen will intercept Matthew Stafford
Woolen created a bunch of on-ball production in his rookie 2022 season, logging six interceptions and 16 pass breakups. Why not get it started early in Year 2. I like Woolen to steal one against the Rams, especially with Stafford playing without star receiver Cooper Kupp and operating behind a questionable offensive front. The Rams' quarterback was ninth in the NFL last season with a 2.6% interception rate.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Darren Waller's hamstring injury is not believed to be serious, and the Giants are hopeful the tight end can play Sunday night vs. Dallas, per a source. It's definitely not a slam dunk that he plays, but the team doesn't seem overly alarmed. Waller appeared on Friday's injury report with a questionable designation. He has had hamstring concerns in the past, so the Giants need to be cautious and will likely monitor him through the weekend. Waller is a big part of what the Giants want to do offensively.
The Buccaneers do not plan to extend wide receiver Mike Evans before his agent Deryk Gilmore's self-imposed Saturday deadline, a source confirms. I'm told the Bucs also do not plan to trade Evans, general manager Jason Licht's first draft pick nine years ago. But Tampa Bay has cap constraints after spending big the past two years, and it needs to see what it can be as a team this season. The Bucs also have several young players to consider -- linebacker Devin White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. are set to become free agents in 2024, and offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs has two years left on his rookie deal. So perhaps a deal can be reached down the road, even as far down as Evans testing free agency, where he'll inevitably have a strong market.
Here's the Chiefs' thinking on receiver Kadarius Toney, who struggled mightily Thursday night in the season opener against Detroit. When they traded for Toney at the deadline last year, they considered the move low-risk; he was in the second year of a rookie deal with major upside as a player. He helped them win a Super Bowl with some electric playmaking, and Kansas City entered the season believing Toney can be a featured player -- possibly even a No. 1-type receiver down the road. The organization sees him as a special talent.
But the Chiefs weren't necessarily counting on that, especially since Toney had injury concerns coming out of New York. The Chiefs did a deep dive on him before trading for him, and they are hoping for the best but also have room to pivot. Here's guessing Toney will get more chances to find his footing after a knee injury cost him the preseason.
On the receiver front, the Chiefs did look around this offseason. They kept in contact with DeAndre Hopkins before he signed with Tennessee in July. Perhaps they will look at the trade market next month, or it's possible veteran free agents Jarvis Landry and Julio Jones could help on short-term deals.