Yes, every NFL team wants to win in 2023. But savvy franchises also keep an eye to the future and set themselves up for long-term success. Which teams will continue to pile up wins and show steady improvement over the next few years? In our annual Future Power Rankings, we focused on the next three seasons (2023 through 2025) and stacked all 32 clubs' longer-term expectations.
To do so, we asked our panel of experts -- Dan Graziano, Louis Riddick and Seth Walder -- to rate each team's quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster, drafting ability/capital, front office and coaching using this scale:
100: A+ (Elite)
90: A (Great)
80: B (Very good)
70: C (Average)
60: D (Very bad)
50 and below: F (Disastrous)
After averaging the results from the panelists, each of the five categories was weighted to create the overall score: roster (30%), quarterback (20%), draft (15%), front office (15%) and coaching (20%). The result is a comprehensive ranking based on how well each team is positioned for the future. Our experts then picked out reasons for optimism, reasons to worry and crucial stats to know for every franchise.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Note: Overall scores are rounded to the nearest tenth of a point, and tied teams are listed alphabetically.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Overall score: 94.1
Reason for hope: Jeez, you name it. The Eagles have a loaded roster; a front office that has shown a deft ability to maintain and replenish through the draft, trades and free agency; a head coach who has established a Super Bowl-caliber culture in just two seasons; and an exciting, young franchise quarterback who's locked in long-term and appears driven to be great. The Philadelphia sports fan might not be inclined toward optimism, but this team should be changing that. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Going into 2022, some wondered whether coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts were the right combination for the future of this team. Those concerns no longer exist. Instead, focus has shifted to the amount of talent on the coaching staff that has left the organization over the past few months. Both coordinators have gone on to become head coaches, leaving new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and defensive coordinator Sean Desai to lead what is arguably the best roster in the NFL back to the Super Bowl -- and win it this time. Can that duo get it done? -- Riddick
Stat to know: Defensive tackle Jordan Davis was limited to only 217 defensive snaps during his rookie season but did show serious promise as a run-stuffer. His 41% run stop win rate as an interior rusher would have ranked seventh at the position had he qualified, and his 1.1 yards of push (vertical movement in the first 2.5 seconds of a run play, per ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats) would have ranked fifth. -- Walder
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Overall score: 93.4
Reason for hope: "Patrick Mahomes" could stand as a simple yet comprehensive two-word reason for optimism. He's signed through 2031, and as long as he's in Kansas City, the Chiefs should be competing for titles. But the fact that so many rookies played key roles in last season's Super Bowl run shows there's even more reason to be bullish on the Chiefs' future. The coaching staff and front office have proven they can build around the generational quarterback to keep competing at a high level. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Tight end Travis Kelce will be 34 years old in October. Since 2018, he is second in the league in receptions (507), third in receiving yards (6,444) and fourth in receiving TDs (47). While Mahomes is one of the best QBs we have seen, life after Kelce would be starting to keep me awake at night if I were GM Brett Veach. The Chiefs do not have any offensive skill position players on the roster who are ready to handle that kind of responsibility. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Chiefs' biggest advantage is Mahomes, and they lean into it. On early downs when the game was in question (win probability between 15% and 85%) last season, the Chiefs ran designed pass plays 67% of the time -- most in the league. That's exactly where they should rank, given who is throwing those passes for them. -- Walder
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Overall score: 91.0
Reason for hope: Drafting Joe Burrow changed everything for this franchise, and his burning desire to win at the highest level should continue paying off for the Bengals for the foreseeable future -- especially if his new contract comes with the same team-friendly structure Mahomes' deal did for the Chiefs. That would enable them to keep more of their young talent for longer, only increasing the reason for optimism in a place that never used to have any around its football team. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: It's still about the play of the offensive line -- and will continue to be about the play of the offensive line -- until the Bengals get this unit corrected. The Bengals came within a play of possibly winning the Super Bowl during the 2021 season, despite the fact that Burrow was sacked 51 times during the regular season and 19 more times in the postseason. In 2022, the rebuilt OL was still 30th in the NFL in pass block win rate. In the AFC Championship Game, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones had two sacks and eight pressures and basically wrecked the game. The addition of Orlando Brown Jr. to play left tackle and the shifting of Jonah Williams to the right side are the latest moves to make this unit better, but we'll see how it works. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Trey Hendrickson remains underrated as a high-end pass-rusher. Though he had just eight sacks last season, his pass rush win rate at edge was 25%, which ranked fourth in the league behind only Micah Parsons, Haason Reddick and Myles Garrett. -- Walder
T-4. Baltimore Ravens
Overall score: 89.9
Reason for hope: Stability and a long track record of competence both in the front office and on the coaching staff are the main reasons there's always optimism in Baltimore. General manager Eric DeCosta and coach John Harbaugh have kept the franchise competitive year in and year out. Plus, quarterback Lamar Jackson is still only 26 and one of the most thrilling players in the league. If he can stay healthy and take to the new offense, the Ravens could be really good for a really long time. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: In last year's Future Power Rankings, I was worried about the Ravens' philosophical approach and offensive personnel going forward under then-OC Greg Roman's direction. With the veteran addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and the drafting of Zay Flowers in the first round, I'm in a much better place on the wide receiver talent. Bringing in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken should take the passing game -- and specifically play-action out of 12 personnel -- to levels it hasn't achieved to this point, but it is still an unknown. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Roquan Smith, whom the Ravens signed to an extension this offseason, ranked fifth in run stop win rate (41%) among linebackers last season. His coverage numbers were a little down; he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap, slightly worse than the 0.9 average for linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But he has been stronger in that category in the past, with just 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed in 2020. -- Walder
T-4. Buffalo Bills
Overall score: 89.9
Reason for hope: Buffalo's highest grade came in the quarterback category, and Josh Allen remains its biggest strength. But the Bills also scored in the 90s in coaching and front office, and it's important to remember that, like all of the teams in this range, the culture that the Bills' leadership has established is central to Buffalo's long-term prognosis. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: The pass rush is still a major concern going forward, and we saw it last year when Von Miller was lost for the season. Miller is coming off a major injury at age 34, and there isn't anyone else on the roster who shows game-changing pass-rush tools. It's an issue. But what worries me even more is the identity of the offense when the games matter the most. Can the Bills control the line of scrimmage, run the football and not be so dependent on Allen? If they don't get that figured out, this team could miss a very good window of opportunity. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Allen has posted a 71.4 QBR over the past three seasons. That's better than any quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes. Consistently great play at quarterback is the most important attribute for sustainable success, and it's a big reason the Bills are ranked here. -- Walder
6. Seattle Seahawks
Overall score: 85.9
Reason for hope: The Seahawks' two highest grades were in the front office and drafting categories, and it's no surprise. GM John Schneider's ability to manipulate the draft has kept the Seahawks competitive for more than a decade. Early returns indicate they fleeced the Broncos in last year's Russell Wilson trade. And while a 32-year-old Geno Smith might not be their long-term answer at QB, his outstanding 2022 performance (tied for sixth in QBR at 60.8) at the very least bought them time to keep looking for one. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Can Seattle clean up its inability to stop the run and not get pushed at the line of scrimmage? This team has the potential to win the NFC West in 2023, but that defensive line needs to improve. Defensive tackle Jarran Reed and defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones will be major upgrades, as will rookie D-tackle Cameron Young from Mississippi State. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Cornerback Tariq Woolen managed an impressive six interceptions last season as a rookie, but that wasn't his only strong coverage number. He also posted just a 13.5% target rate, second lowest among all outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps, behind only Pat Surtain II. He's the headliner of a banner 2022 draft that has Seattle in great position going forward. -- Walder
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall score: 84.1
Reason for hope: Coach Mike Tomlin is the central figure in this franchise's present and future, making the Steelers impossible to overlook. The roster also appears to be in strong shape around second-year QB Kenny Pickett, who offered plenty of his own reasons for optimism over the second half of his rookie season. He was top five in QBR in Weeks 14-18. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: I want to see this team create explosive passing plays down the field at a much greater frequency. The Pittsburgh offense finished 25th in the NFL in QBR on passes that traveled 21-plus air yards (67.1) and tied for 23rd in total passing plays gaining at least 20 yards (44). That means Pickett, the wide receiver room, the protection up front and offensive coordinator Matt Canada all have to be better. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Steelers' 1-2 punch at wide receiver is fantastic, and for different reasons. Let's look at ESPN's receiver tracking metrics for Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Johnson led all wideouts in open score with a 99 last season, while Pickens tied for a league-best 99 catch score. Having Johnson and Pickens to throw to is huge for Pickett's development. -- Walder
T-8. Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall score: 84.0
Reason for hope: The pairing of uber-talented 2021 first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence and Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson showed promise in its first season, and that's the major reason the arrow is pointing up for Jacksonville. Lawrence took a big step forward, throwing 25 touchdown passes to eight interceptions in 2022. It doesn't hurt that the Jaguars play in the AFC South, a division they should be able to control for the near future. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: My main concern for Jacksonville is the same thing that concerned me on draft night in 2022. Is Travon Walker a true disruptive game-changer who can close out football games with his ability to get sacks? After recording just 3.5 sacks and 26 pressures as a rookie, he must make the jump in Year 2 if Jacksonville is to become one of the AFC's top contenders. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Jaguars' offensive line is a problem. It ranked 31st in pass block win rate last year and then lost the better of its two tackles, Jawaan Taylor, in free agency. The issue isn't glaring because Lawrence is excellent at avoiding sacks (just a 4.3% sack rate in 2022), but a bad offensive line hurts the team on far more plays than just those that result in sacks. It will limit Jacksonville's ceiling unless the unit improves. -- Walder
T-8. San Francisco 49ers
Overall score: 84.0
Reason for hope: Coach Kyle Shanahan's ability to design winning game plans around basically any quarterback is the main reason to feel good about the 49ers' short- and long-term prospects. The roster is as loaded as any in the league for the next couple of years. The depth chart and tremendous coaching staff are more than enough to make up for continued questions at the QB position. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Who is going to be the quarterback? Will Brock Purdy be healthy, and will he be able to continue to ascend in 2023 like he did at the end of 2022? Will Trey Lance stay healthy, and will the work he put in this offseason pay off (either in San Francisco or elsewhere)? Will Sam Darnold take advantage of what could be a perfect situation for him? With this much uncertainty at the most important position in all of sports, the 49ers' future as a legitimate Super Bowl contender is a day-to-day proposition. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Receiver Deebo Samuel's after-the-catch ability is incredible, but the rest of his receiving profile left something to be desired in 2022. He recorded just a 20 catch score last season, worst among all qualifying wide receivers in our receiver tracking metrics. Samuel doesn't have to be great in that area to be an exceptional receiver, but catching so few passes relative to expectation hurts his value. -- Walder
10. Dallas Cowboys
Overall score: 83.2
Reason for hope: For all the jokes and justified criticism about the lack of recent playoff success, the Cowboys' front office has absolutely demonstrated an ability to draft and develop players who keep them competing for division titles and playoff berths every year. Young cornerstone players at key positions, such as Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb, offer plenty of hope for the roster in the coming years. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Philosophically, what this team wants to be offensively and what it is equipped to be are two different things. Coach Mike McCarthy said this offseason, "I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. ... Being a head coach and being a playcaller, you're a little more in tune with [everything]." That's sounds good in theory, but primary running back Tony Pollard is returning from a fractured left fibula, has not been signed to a long-term deal and will no longer be able to share the load with Ezekiel Elliott. And what is Dallas' plan to help Prescott take advantage of a quality WR group and cut down on his career-high 15 interceptions last season? -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Cowboys pressured opposing punters on 20% of punts last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That's just one part of the game, but that number blew away every other team in the league, as the Raiders were next-highest at a 13% pressure rate on punts. -- Walder
11. Detroit Lions
Overall score: 82.6
Reason for hope: The Lions finished last season by winning eight of their final 10 games, competing for a playoff spot until almost the very end and knocking division-rival Green Bay out of the postseason hunt in their season finale at Lambeau Field. The culture change that coach Dan Campbell has engineered in a short period of time offers reason to believe the Lions can build off last year's success. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Does Detroit have the pass rush to take down the real heavyweights of the league on a consistent basis? Yes, Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks in his rookie season, and first-year linebacker James Houston was spectacular with eight sacks in seven games after being elevated from the practice squad. But the Lions also ranked 25th in pass rush win rate (36%), so it is clear that they need more help up front. -- Riddick
Stat to know: That the Lions ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play is a testament to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the Lions' coaching staff. Detroit was extremely efficient despite having Jared Goff (who ranked 24th in QBR the year prior) at quarterback, a mediocre pass-protecting line (18th in pass block win rate) and just one good receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown. -- Walder
12. Miami Dolphins
Overall score: 82.5
Reason for hope: Miami received an excellent grade on the non-QB portion of its roster, and when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and available last season, the Dolphins looked like a team that could beat anyone. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, for whom the Dolphins outbid several other teams to hire in January, should make a major difference on that side of the ball, too. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Tell me that Tagovailoa and offensive tackle Terron Armstead will play 15-plus games during the regular season, and I will tell you that this team will win the AFC East in 2023 and play in the AFC Championship Game. The issues that will cap Miami's upside ultimately are not about ability; they are about availability. Tagovailoa dealt with multiple concussions in 2022, and Armstead has never played a full season in his 10-year career. -- Riddick
Stat to know: When Tagovailoa was on the field last season, the Dolphins' offense posted a wildly efficient 0.13 EPA per play, which would have ranked second in the league behind only the Chiefs' offense. And it would be ahead of the Bills when Josh Allen was on the field. If we look only at plays with Tagovailoa and Armstead, that number jumps to 0.17 -- on par with the Chiefs. In other words: If healthy, the Dolphins' offense has the potential to be ferocious. -- Walder
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Overall score: 81.6
Reason for hope: Quarterback Justin Herbert is still just 25 years old with galactic potential, and he and the Chargers might have scored a massive break when the Cowboys made the bizarre decision to fire offensive coordinator Kellen Moore for scoring too many points. If Moore can replicate what he did in Dallas, Herbert offers even more upside than Dak Prescott. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Chargers coach Brandon Staley has drawn criticism, but according to Sumer Sports, he was the No. 4 in the NFL in 2022 in win probability added over expected, which factors in decision-making on fourth-down and 2-point conversion situations, timeout usage and avoiding delay of game. Instead, I'm more worried about the Chargers being able to keep their starters on the field consistently. Of their 22 starters to begin last season, nine missed at least three games -- and four missed at least nine. You have to have your best players on the field. -- Riddick
Stat to know: We know about Herbert's low 6.3 air yards per target last season. That might change in a new offense, but it's not like Herbert never had the option to throw deep in Joe Lombardi's scheme. In fact, 75% of Herbert's dropbacks featured at least one vertical route, the 11th-highest rate in the league. And on plays when at least one receiver did run a vertical route, Herbert threw 20-plus yards downfield just 11% of the time, 27th among QBR-qualified quarterbacks. -- Walder
14. Green Bay Packers
Overall score: 81.3
Reason for hope: There are few, if any, teams more dedicated to their way of doing business than the Packers are, and it tends to pay off. Only the Patriots and Steelers have won more games this century than the Packers. They prize stability in the front office and coaching staff, and in a time of significant transition at quarterback, they will lean on coach Matt LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst to keep them competitive. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Green Bay has pushed the reset button offensively, which could be great or could cause a lot of pain in the short term. The Packers' top five wide receivers will be first- or second-year players, their top two tight ends are rookies and quarterback Jordan Love will be making just his second career start (83 career passes). I really like the talent that the front office has assembled, but there is no shortage of questions about how those players will execute when it counts. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Packers have ranked in the top six of pass block win rate every year since the metric was introduced in 2017. They've had some great offensive lines in that time, for sure. But I've always wondered if part of that was Aaron Rodgers, and perhaps his hard count, slowing down opponents. This season will help us find out. -- Walder
15. New York Jets
Overall score: 81.1
Reason for hope: I don't know if you have heard, but the Jets got Aaron Rodgers. It boosted their grade in the QB category, as you might expect, and their overall roster graded out very strongly as well. Any time you have the reigning Offensive (Garrett Wilson) and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Sauce Gardner) on the same team, you've got hope. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: The present and the future are one and the same for the Jets. It is Super Bowl or bust for however many seasons Rodgers, 39, is with the team. But can the offensive line keep him upright? Can it capture the line of scrimmage and provide some space for an impressive group of running backs? The Jets finished 21st in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate last season. That isn't going to get it done. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Jets ranked fifth in EPA per play on defense last season -- and first if we look at all non-interception, non-fumble plays. That bodes well for the team's prospects of carrying over its 2022 defensive success into 2023. -- Walder
16. New England Patriots
Overall score: 79.6
Reason for hope: The Patriots scored the highest in coaching and front office, and belief in Bill Belichick is probably the main reason for optimism -- as long as he's in New England. The installation of Bill O'Brien at offensive coordinator should help young quarterback Mac Jones get back to the encouraging form he showed in his rookie season. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: O'Brien might be the most important coordinator hire in the NFL for the 2023 season. He must get Jones and this New England offense on the right track after an utterly embarrassing train wreck in 2022. Can he get it sorted out quickly enough, and does the offense have enough firepower overall to contend with the teams in their own division, let alone the rest of the conference, before ownership starts to consider a change at the very top? -- Riddick
Stat to know: Outside linebacker Josh Uche's 11.5-sack breakout in 2022 looks like no fluke, as his 20% pass rush win rate at edge far exceeded more celebrated teammate Matthew Judon's 13%. Uche's 20% would have ranked 12th at the position had he played enough to qualify. That's a good thing considering the Pats have to face Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers twice. -- Walder
T-17. Cleveland Browns
Overall score: 79.2
Reason for hope: Cleveland has built a strong all-around roster, and its front office graded out well in this survey. Plus, coach Kevin Stefanski has shown an ability to be a steadying presence, while new coordinator Jim Schwartz should get the defense in shape. If quarterback Deshaun Watson can recapture his pre-2021 form, the ceiling could be much higher for this team than we realize. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: When you give a contract to a player like the one Cleveland gave Watson, the return on investment has to be significant. Like MVP-caliber significant. But in six games last season, Watson had a 38.3 QBR, completed 58.2% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. The Browns added serious size and speed on the perimeter to help improve the explosive downfield playmaking component of this offense (Cedric Tillman, Marquise Goodwin and Elijah Moore), but I need to see Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt develop this group beyond the on-paper potential. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Denzel Ward is a two-time Pro Bowl cornerback, but he didn't look like it in 2022. He allowed 1.7 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was the fifth-worst among all outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps. -- Walder
T-17. New York Giants
Overall score: 79.2
Reason for hope: Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year in his first season with the Giants, leading a team of which little was expected to the divisional round of the playoffs. The performance (and health) of QB Daniel Jones last season offers hope that he can keep them competitive while Daboll keeps building the culture and GM Joe Schoen keeps building out the roster. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Did the Giants do enough on the perimeter to help Jones take the next step and justify management's decision to sign him to a long-term contract extension? That's the big question. I love the potential of Parris Campbell and the blazing speed of third-rounder Jalin Hyatt, but neither has No. 1 receiver upside for 2023. In fact, I don't see a WR1 on the roster. That job could become the responsibility of tight end Darren Waller, but like Campbell, his durability has been an issue. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux managed just four sacks in his rookie season, but the underlying numbers suggest better play than that. Thibodeaux's 18% pass rush win rate at edge was above average for the position (ranked 15th), and he had 9.5 sacks created, a stat where we credit the player with the first pass rush win on a sack play rather than the player who finished the sack. His continued development will raise the Giants' defensive ceiling. -- Walder
19. Denver Broncos
Overall score: 77.9
Reason for hope: It absolutely cannot get any worse for Russell Wilson than it was in his first season in Denver. And while that might not sound like the most super-duper optimistic way to look at things, the arrival of coach Sean Payton should lead to things being better organized around Wilson and the offense. The roster has a lot of good players on defense, at wide receiver and in other spots that point to a potentially quick turnaround if Wilson has one in him. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: The Denver front office has to do better. I give the organization credit for quickly recognizing that Nathaniel Hackett wasn't the answer last year, but the fact is that it was ill-advised from the beginning. Compounding that hire was the trade for Wilson and what it cost in terms of draft capital relative to his performance. And lastly, other than Pat Surtain II, the Broncos have not acquired enough impact players through the draft to close the talent gap with Kansas City. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Receiver Jerry Jeudy had an under-the-radar breakout in 2022 despite failing to reach 1,000 receiving yards. He posted a career-high 80 Open Score via ESPN's receiver tracking metrics and led the league in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.8). His presence could help Wilson bounce back from a rough first year in Denver. -- Walder
20. Carolina Panthers
Overall score: 77.3
Reason for hope: Optimism tends to come with a quarterback picked first overall in the draft, of course, but don't forget about Frank Reich and the all-star coaching staff he put together. The pre-draft concerns about QB Bryce Young from scouts and teams weren't about whether he would play well, just about how long he might be able to last at his size. In the short term (and this is an exercise about the next three years), there's every reason to be excited about Young turning this team into a contender. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: How will Young adapt his style of play to the NFL? I have consistently said that I love his competitiveness and ability to make the dramatic off-schedule play, but the NFL is not the SEC, and Young will not be able to live outside of structure the way he did at Alabama and expect to last a full season. He will need to win at a high level with a more structured and measured style of play. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Panthers have a solid core of players on defense, including tackle Derrick Brown. He ranked second in run stop win rate (43%) as an interior defender last season, trailing only the Dolphins' Christian Wilkins. -- Walder
21. Chicago Bears
Overall score: 76.9
Reason for hope: If you aren't excited about the electrifying talent that quarterback Justin Fields showed last year, I'm not sure what you were watching. The Bears have a lot of building to do, but they made a ton of additions to their roster in an effort to help Fields' development, and he seems to have the ability and the frame of mind of a quarterback who could ascend quickly as his circumstances improve. Having Carolina's first-round pick next year also is big for the future. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: General manager Ryan Poles went to work trying to protect and provide help for Fields, but what about the defensive side? Do the Bears have enough impact players to effectively rush the passer and create turnovers? They were last in sacks (20) and middle-of-the-pack in turnovers created (23) last season. Keep an eye on rookie defensive tackles Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. These two will be major determining factors when it comes to the success or failure of this defense. -- Riddick
Stat to know: It's still unclear if he'll win the starting running back job, but Khalil Herbert averaged 1.3 rush yards over expectation per carry last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That led all running backs with at least 100 carries and was dramatically ahead of the minus-0.3 RYOE per carry that David Montgomery averaged. -- Walder
22. Tennessee Titans
Overall score: 75.9
Reason for hope: I'm looking mostly at how consistently well-coached this team has been under Mike Vrabel. As they enter a period of roster turnover and transition under first-time GM Ran Carthon, the Titans will look to Vrabel as a steadying force who keeps them competing for a playoff spot. There's also likely some upside to second-round pick Will Levis, though his timetable for becoming the Titans' starting quarterback remains unclear. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: What is the future at QB? Ryan Tannehill is in the final year of his deal, is turning 35 years old and has not come close to repeating his 2019 and 2020 seasons, when he was one of the best QBs in the league. We still have no idea what Levis or 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis will ultimately become, so there has got to be nothing but concern in Nashville when it comes to the most important position in sports. Tennessee was 30th in pass yards last season with just 2,914. -- Riddick
Stat to know: In a limited sample (154 routes), tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo recorded 2.9 yards per route run last season. That's not just higher than every tight end with at least 150 routes -- it's also higher than every player with at least 150 routes outside of Tyreek Hill. -- Walder
23. Minnesota Vikings
Overall score: 75.8
Reason for hope: We can talk all we want about the one-score wins and how fluky the Vikings' 13-4 record last season might have been, but the fact is they did win 13 games. That means first-year coach Kevin O'Connell and all of the team's young players got used to winning, which can only help going forward. O'Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah obviously have a plan and a vision for how they want to build things in Minnesota. And wide receiver Justin Jefferson is as brilliant a young player as any team has on its roster. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores should be a big boost, too. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Yeah, the Vikings have to get their defense straightened out -- and quickly. Flores takes over for Ed Donatell, who presided over a unit that was in the bottom fourth of the league in scoring defense, total defense and explosive plays allowed. Minnesota cannot continue on that path and expect to maintain the kind of one-score game success that it had in 2022. How does Flores adapt to the Vikings' personnel, and what kind of scheme will he put together? All eyes will be on that throughout camp. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Vikings took a one-year bet on edge rusher Marcus Davenport in free agency after he recorded just half a sack in 2022 and a below-average pass rush win rate (14%). But Minnesota is betting that the former Saint can get back to his form from 2021, when he recorded an above-average 20% pass rush win rate at edge along with nine sacks. -- Walder
24. Atlanta Falcons
Overall score: 74.0
Reason for hope: Bijan Robinson. Drake London. Kyle Pitts. The Falcons' past three drafts have started with extremely promising, talented players at the offensive skill positions. If nothing else, they should be a lot of fun to watch. And if Desmond Ridder can play quarterback at an NFL-starter level, he has plenty of help around him. Coach Arthur Smith is the right guy to bring it all together on offense -- again, assuming they have the right quarterback. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: I like Ridder's mobility, ability to throw on the move and his effectiveness in the play-action game on short-to-intermediate throws. But the field vision, decision-making and ball placement/accuracy? I need to see improvement. Atlanta can give him time, though, and see if efficiency and consistency start to emerge as he gets comfortable in Smith's system. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Falcons ran an extremely run-heavy offense in 2022, with designed runs on early downs with the game in question (win probability between 15-85%) 57% of the time, which led the NFL. It's somewhat understandable considering who was at QB, but it's also almost impossible to be a contender that way without a Lamar Jackson-type talent at quarterback. At some point, the Falcons will have to try passing the ball more frequently. -- Walder
25. New Orleans Saints
Overall score: 72.8
Reason for hope: The overall roster, especially on defense, looks strong. The division in which the Saints play does not. Derek Carr should provide an upgrade over what they had last year at quarterback. Michael Thomas says he's feeling better and planning to be back from the injuries that knocked him out so frequently the past couple of years. So there's evidence that a bounceback year in New Orleans could be in the cards. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: I'm watching the Dennis Allen-led coaching staff that includes offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and defensive coordinator Joe Woods (who makes yet another change in coming over from Cleveland). Can this group get the best out of Carr and get him in sync with receivers Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to form a legit explosive offense? Can they get continued championship-caliber football out of the defense? -- Riddick
Stat to know: Even more than his 1,000-yard rookie season let on, Olave is the future. His 82 Open Score last year ranked eighth among all wide receivers and put him between Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson, a clear sign of a potential superstar and franchise building block in the making. -- Walder
26. Indianapolis Colts
Overall score: 72.7
Reason for hope: The front office has a good drafting track record, and it believes Anthony Richardson has the ability to be a star quarterback in the NFL. Richardson is the key reason for optimism here in the short term, and Colts fans will be eager to see him on the field as soon as possible. New coach Shane Steichen comes from Philadelphia, where they seem to know a thing or two about growing coaches. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: I was wrong about this team in 2022, and my biggest worry for 2023 is whether this offensive line -- which ranked last in pass block win rate and 23rd in run block win rate in 2022 -- is the most overhyped, overpaid unit in the NFL. A turnaround from the OL is crucial to this organization winning games, especially with a rookie quarterback. -- Riddick
Stat to know: Over the past five years, Shaquille Leonard has recorded 17 forced fumbles. That's the most by an off-ball linebacker by a mile (Lavonte David is next with 10) and third-most by any player in that span -- despite the fact he barely played last season (three games). Leonard will be just 28 years old this year, so if he can regain his form, he can help Indianapolis now and for years to come. -- Walder
27. Washington Commanders
Overall score: 72.6
Reason for hope: New ownership, right? Whatever else happens with the Commanders this year, fans are breathing a huge sigh of relief over the impending departure of owner Dan Snyder. On the field, the hope is that second-year QB Sam Howell can thrive with his exciting group of young skill-position players on offense and that the stars in the defensive front can make enough plays to make Washington a surprise challenger in the NFC East. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: The Commanders sure do seem to be high on Howell, including new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who told me at the combine that he is very much looking forward to working with him. If you look at the tape of his single 2022 start (vs. Dallas in Week 18), he was poised, played with good vision, showed solid movement traits inside and outside the pocket and spread the ball all over the field. But it was just one game. I want to see a lot more before I'd declare Washington has found its future at the position. -- Riddick
Stat to know: It's basically impossible to tell what the Commanders have in Howell statistically. But for whatever it's worth, Howell recorded a QBR of 46 over his tiny sample of 29 action plays, which was better than the team's average of 39. Whether it's via Howell or Jacoby Brissett, Washington should get better play at quarterback. -- Walder
28. Los Angeles Rams
Overall score: 70.7
Reason for hope: The Rams still have Sean McVay as their coach. They still have Aaron Donald in the middle of their defensive line. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp should be back from last year's injuries, ready to make beautiful music together again. There are plenty of people here who helped win the Super Bowl just 17 months ago, so McVay could surprise you and return this team to contention quickly. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Donald is the only premium player the Rams have left from their Super Bowl defense, and Stafford's health and durability going forward on a week-to-week basis is going to be something to watch. -- Riddick
Stat to know: One lever the Rams pull more than anyone else under McVay is the designed rollout. Designed rollouts made up 12% of the Rams' plays last season and 10% the year before, both league highs. And it really works for them. The Rams recorded 0.18 EPA per play (basically a Chiefs-level offense) on designed rollout dropbacks and minus-0.09 EPA per play on all other dropbacks. -- Walder
T-29. Houston Texans
Overall score: 70.3
Reason for hope: With No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud at quarterback, there's reason to believe an exciting era is on the horizon in Houston. New coach and franchise icon DeMeco Ryans also has brought excitement and optimism. Houston has a young team it hopes can grow up together around Stroud, who has the traits of a franchise quarterback. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Stability and continuity through the front office and coaching staff -- that is what I care about with this organization going forward. The Texans haven't been great in hiring, supporting and developing coaches since GM Nick Caserio took over in 2021. Ryans deserves much better, and the organization needs to establish some stability under him. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Texans' trade from No. 12 up to No. 3 for edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was the second-largest first-round overpay in the past 20 drafts, according to our approximate value-based draft pick valuations. It can work out -- the top overpay was Julio Jones, after all -- but expensive trade-ups for non-quarterbacks are exactly the sort of move that we have learned, on average, are bad bets. It was not a trade that instills confidence in the front office, which ranks 32nd in these rankings. -- Walder
T-29. Las Vegas Raiders
Overall score: 70.3
Reason for hope: The defense underperformed last year, but Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby form one of the most exciting pass-rush tandems in the league when they're both on their games. The Raiders also still have Davante Adams, who makes a case as the best wide receiver in the league. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: When I asked Raiders coach Josh McDaniels what needed to improve in 2023 at the end of last season, one of the first things he mentioned was they needed more playmakers on defense. Last season, the Raiders produced the fewest turnovers (13) of any team in the NFL, were 30th in total sacks (27, of which Crosby had 12.5) and were 26th in scoring defense (24.6 points allowed per game). I like the additions of defensive end Tyree Wilson and cornerback Jakorian Bennett at the draft, but they have a lot of work to do to make this a top-15 defense. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Raiders made huge gains in their offensive line over 2021-2022. One player who took a big step up was Kolton Miller. The Raiders' left tackle not only ranked seventh in pass block win rate among tackles (93%), but he jumped up to fourth in run block win rate (82%), a category that previously was a weakness for him. -- Walder
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall score: 70.1
Reason for hope: The overall roster around the quarterback still has stellar players in key places, especially at wide receiver and on defense. The front office has shown an ability to build a winner, and this is a team you can trust to keep drafting well and making the right moves. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Well, the Buccaneers don't have a QB. At least not one who represents the long-term future. And until they have that guy, does anything else really matter? No. -- Riddick
Stat to know: The Bucs used play-action on just 15% of their dropbacks last year, the lowest rate in the league. Any positive movement in that category under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales would almost certainly help Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask. Play-action is a quantifiably beneficial tool. -- Walder
32. Arizona Cardinals
Overall score: 68.5
Reason for hope: A new coaching staff, with Jonathan Gannon coming over from Philadelphia, offers a glimmer of hope. The Cardinals also have two picks in the first round and six in the first three rounds of next year's draft. And whenever he's healthy again, Kyler Murray brings a lot of upside at quarterback. -- Graziano
Reason for concern: Murray is coming off a torn ACL, and he is now dealing with a depleted roster. Furthermore, he is going to be working with a first-time offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing under a first-time head coach in Gannon. -- Riddick
Stat to know: I'll contend that the Cardinals are too low on this ranking for one simple reason -- they currently own the two most likely picks to turn into the No. 1 overall selection next season, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. There's a combined 31% chance the Cardinals end up with the top pick right now and even a 5% chance that they earn both of the top-two selections. -- Walder