We have four teams left in this season's NFL playoffs, and a pair of conference championship games on Sunday will decide which two will continue to Super Bowl LVII. The San Francisco 49ers will travel to Pennsylvania to play the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, while the Cincinnati Bengals will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game for a second straight season. How can each team pull off the win?
We dug into the tape to pick out keys to victory -- one offensive and one defensive -- and build out game plan blueprints for every team this weekend. Based on what I've seen on tape and with some help from the numbers, we can get a better feel for how coaching staffs will scheme for personnel, game situation and coverage. We also picked out an X factor player who could play a big part for each of the four franchises.
Here are the game plan keys for both games, along with the ESPN Football Power Index projections for each matchup.
AFC: (3) Cincinnati Bengals at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Line: CIN -1 (47)
FPI prediction: Chiefs by 5
How the Chiefs can beat the Bengals
1. Go with the zone run game
Coach Andy Reid will of course make pass-game adjustments to facilitate more production on pocket throws for Patrick Mahomes if the quarterback's mobility is severely limited (high ankle sprain). But let's not forget about the Chiefs' ability to run outside zone given the play of their offensive front.
In their regular-season head-to-head matchup with the Bengals, running backs Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon combined for 117 rushing yards on 22 carries. We could see Reid deploy more multiple tight end sets (12 and 13 personnel) to get the numbers he wants for the Chiefs' backs to press, bend or bounce the ball. Kansas City ranked eighth in yards per rush this season (4.7), and that run game will be a factor here Sunday.
POP OFF @isiah_pachecoRB#KCvsCIN | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/xg4AuaMAfm
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 4, 2022
2. Be versatile in 2-Man on third down
Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is going to see both man-free and 2-Man looks from the Chiefs' defense on money downs. In Week 13, Kansas City played 2-Man on 60% of coverage snaps, but don't think of it as a chalkboard defense, considering it has two safeties off at 15 yards and displays inside-man technique underneath.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can use a deep safety to bracket/top Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase when he is aligned as the boundary X receiver. He can also drop a safety low to wait on in-breakers or drive on middle-of-the-field throws in the red zone. Burrow was 7 of 9 passing with a TD pass on third down in Week 13, and his 75.1 QBR on third down this season ranked eighth. So safeties Juan Thornhill, Justin Reid and rookie Bryan Cook will have to create on-the-ball production to win those late-down matchups.
Chiefs' X factor: Nick Bolton, ILB
Bolton's ability to play the run and close the middle of the field as the hole defender in Cover 2 are key aspects to the Chiefs' defensive game plan. He logged 16 total tackles in the Week 13 matchup, and his 180 on the season ranked second in the NFL.
How the Bengals can beat the Chiefs
1. Take the middle-of-the-field throws
In the Week 13 win over the Chiefs, Burrow went 18 of 20 for 179 yards and a touchdown pass on throws inside the numbers. With Kansas City playing Cover 2 at a high rate (41.7% of coverage snaps), Burrow relied on Hi-Lo combinations and quick seams. His ability to deliver the ball with location showed up multiple times on the Bengals' three-step concepts against man coverage, including in-breakers and slants (with the ball thrown to the upfield shoulder).
No one throws the base concepts better than Burrow, and with so much late movement from the Chiefs' secondary, you can bet on him reading it out with speed to target the middle-of-the-field windows.
2. Have a dedicated plan for Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce
Cornerback Tre Flowers is the Bengals' typical tight end matchup defender in dime looks, but he's working through a hamstring injury. That means we could see man coverage reps against Kelce from either Dax Hill or Vonn Bell, especially to the backside of 3x1 sets.
But given how much zone the Bengals played in the Week 13 game -- 71% of coverage snaps -- and how Mahomes' ankle injury could impact the Chiefs' route structure, will defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo dedicate a defender to disrupt Kelce at the line of scrimmage when the tight end aligns inside the numbers? You can have a player jam, re-route and then sink to zone depth. With a clean release, Kelce can find open grass on sticks and unders, and then move the chains after the catch. I'm betting on Anarumo to find a way to limit those opportunities.
Bengals' X factor: Samaje Perine, RB
Running back Joe Mixon will be the lead ball carrier for the Bengals on Sunday, but Perine will see touches, too. Mixon was out when the Bengals saw the Chiefs in the regular season, and Perine totaled 106 rushing yards, including 88 on carries between the tackles. He's also a viable checkdown target for Burrow when the Chiefs drop into two-deep zone.
NFC: (2) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on Fox
Line: PHI -2.5 (46.5)
FPI prediction: Eagles by 4
How the Eagles can beat the 49ers
1. Win the run-pass option game in the red zone
The Eagles have the best quarterback run game in the league thanks to great scheme and the right personnel. Jalen Hurts rushed for 426 yards on designed carries this season, and we saw the run-pass option concepts there, which really create conflict for opposing defenses in the red zone.
Tight end Dallas Goedert will see targets here on quick arrow screens or pop passes. There will be glance routes to receiver A.J. Brown and wide receiver screens for DeVonta Smith to get him loose in space. Hurts can read it out and take the numbers advantage for a run or passing play. The RPO concepts have given Hurts and this offense an advantage all season, and I see it as a red-zone answer on Sunday that will influence San Francisco defenders and create open-window throws. Philly led the NFL in rushing TDs inside the 20-yard line out of option reads this season (11).
Jump pass! #FlyEaglesFly
— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2022
📺: #WASvsPHI on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qDn7D0vc2b pic.twitter.com/NSXy9Ud1zF
2. Control the perimeter pass-game matchups in Quarters and man coverage
In coordinator John Gannon's defense, the Eagles will play a lot of Quarters and Cover 6, and we'll see a mix of single-high zone/man looks. I do like Quarters here, with the safeties keying downhill quick to fill the alleys against the run game, which puts cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry on top of the releases from 49ers wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
But I'm starting to lean more toward man coverage in this one. The Eagles played single-high man on 35.4% of coverage snaps in the regular season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. And it would put Slay and Bradberry in position to challenge releases outside while sticking to Samuel and Aiyuk on the crossing routes that create catch-and-run opportunities. Slay and Bradberry are both technicians with closing speed and ball production, and man coverage sets up a best-versus-best situation here. Only Tampa Bay and New England allowed fewer yards per dropback in man looks than the Eagles this season (4.8).
Eagles' X factor: Haason Reddick, OLB
Reddick has logged 17.5 sacks in his first season with the Eagles, including 1.5 in last week's divisional round win over the Giants, and I like his matchup against 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey. With Reddick's first-step quickness and ability to bend and cut the corner, Gannon can scheme more one-on-ones while also using stunts to wrap him inside. Look for Reddick to disrupt the pocket and heat up Niners quarterback Brock Purdy. His 27.6% pass rush win rate ranked second in the NFL to Dallas' Micah Parsons, and his 11.4% pressure rate ranked No. 16 overall.
How the 49ers can beat the Eagles
1. Reduce the formations in the run game
By reducing the formation -- using bunch or snug sets -- the 49ers can create extra gaps to attack against the Eagles while also setting up both leverage and blocking angles. We saw this in the second half of the divisional round matchup with the Cowboys. The Niners can widen the edges and run the ball to the "C" gap, with fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle working to the play side. Or they can pull more defenders into the box to match the formation, which gives coach Kyle Shanahan the ability to lean on his perimeter schemes.
That means pin/pull tosses and outside zone runs with Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey against an Eagles defense that allowed 5.9 yards per carry on rushes outside the tackles this season. San Francisco can manipulate the front and play side gaps with savvy offensive alignment to gain a run-game advantage -- and in a matchup where I feel it has to dictate tempo.
2. Increase the reps in three-deep zone coverage
Niners defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will typically play more single-high man coverage on third down (45.2% of coverage snaps) and generate some pressure. But when we look at San Francisco's core zone coverages, I would think we will see more Cover 3 this week against the Eagles. With the coverage traits of linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, the 49ers can carry the inside seam routes or match to the deep overs in the Eagles' route tree.
And with three-deep zone, the Niners can get an advantage in the front, spinning safety Talanoa Hufanga down against Philadelphia's versatile run game. Gaining an extra man there as an overhang defender to cut off the ball and account for Hurts as a runner will be huge.
49ers' X factor: Kyle Juszczyk, FB
Juszczyk only had one offensive touch in the divisional round win, but his deployment as a blocker in the run game is critical to Shanahan's scheme. Whether Juszczyk is aligned as a fullback in a traditional I-formation, playing as a wing or sealing the edge off pre-snap movement, his impact shows on the tape.