The divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs was dramatic, but maybe not in the ways we expected. The Chiefs had to overcome an injury to the best player in football, while the Bills were the team left exposed in the elements of Western New York. The Giants turned back into pumpkins during a blowout loss in Philadelphia. The Cowboys finished their season with a loss in a defensive battle to the 49ers and an inexplicable play on the final snap, and I don't think anyone figured it would happen with longtime Dallas back Ezekiel Elliott taking the snap at center.
Let's run through a key question for each of the winners from this weekend's games to try to figure out where they each stand with two rounds of postseason football to go. We'll go in chronological order and start in Kansas City, where the Chiefs might have won the battle while losing the war:
Jump to a team:
49ers | Bengals
Chiefs | Eagles
Are the Chiefs still the AFC favorites with an injured Patrick Mahomes?
Divisional round result: 27-20 win over the Jaguars
Anyone but Mahomes. Chiefs fans are known for producing statistically notable levels of sound, but when Mahomes got up limping after a short completion in the first quarter Saturday, I'm not sure anybody made a sound. He left the game shortly thereafter before returning after halftime, but the likely regular-season MVP was limited for the remainder of the Chiefs' victory.
Mahomes was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, an injury that has caused problems for skill position players such as Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas in recent seasons. The ankle injury isn't quite as damaging for quarterbacks since they don't need to be quite as explosive, but it can still be a hindrance.
We've seen star quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning play through high ankle sprains in years past. Others, including Mac Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo, were forced to miss time. Ben Roethlisberger tried to play through one, struggled to plant his foot and sailed multiple throws, and then took time off to heal. Mahomes was able to return to the game, which does seem to suggest that he'll be able to play next weekend, but the injury is likely to dampen Kansas City's chances of advancing to its third Super Bowl in five seasons.
He was not his normal self after the injury, even with a heavy tape job and whatever else the Chiefs did to address the issue at halftime. The same Mahomes who had been extending plays and scrambling in his inimitable way early in the game was static and mostly stayed in the pocket, moving only when absolutely necessary. He limped, sometimes badly, to hand the ball to his backs on stretch plays.
The offense also shifted. Mahomes, one of the league's most efficient scramblers, ran the ball just once over the remainder of the game, when he picked up 4 painful yards on third-and-1. The Chiefs abandoned play-action, running it on just 5.9% of their dropbacks after the first quarter with him in the lineup, the lowest rate for any Mahomes performance over the final three quarters of a game.
The seemingly infinite amount of space opposing defenders expect to cover against Mahomes as he extends plays also shrunk. He didn't attempt a single deep pass after the first quarter, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, just the eighth time that has happened since he took over as the full-time starter in 2018. His average pass over the final three quarters traveled just 6.4 yards in the air, which was a yard below his season average.
Thankfully for the Chiefs, the Jaguars were the ideal matchup for backup Chad Henne and a compromised Mahomes. Jacksonville ranked last in QBR allowed to tight ends during the season, and Kansas City's tight ends feasted throughout the game. Travis Kelce caught 14 passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns, while Noah Gray had the team's longest reception of the game (27 yards). The only player targeted more than two times besides Kelce was gadget wideout Kadarius Toney, who turned his seven targets into just 36 yards.
The same thing will not be true against the Bengals, who suffocated the Chiefs' stars during Cincinnati's second-half comeback a year ago. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo sprung the comeback with an unlikely trap by resorting to a three-man rush and dropping eight into coverage. Getting extra men into the second and third levels allowed the Bengals to spy Mahomes as a scrambler and double both Tyreek Hill and Kelce at times. Kelce had four catches for 40 yards after halftime.
Instead, the Chiefs likely will need more out of the other receivers on their roster. A Chiefs team chastened by its failure against the Bengals might have made a conscious choice to add in bulk by swapping out Hill for myriad replacements in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, but none of those players has been consistently impactful this season. Those wideouts are going to need to win one-on-one, and Mahomes is going to need to find them for big plays.
If we assume Mahomes looks next week essentially like the player we saw in the second half Saturday, the Chiefs will have to adapt. They'll have a week to prepare, but they can't count on Kelce getting open for 14 catches again. Tre Flowers, Cincinnati's preferred defender against Kelce, missed the win over the Bills because of a hamstring injury. Andy Reid's ability to game-plan is legendary, but the margin for error the Chiefs normally enjoy with Mahomes just disappeared.
One way they adapted after Mahomes' injury was by running the ball, with Isiah Pacheco rushing 12 times for 95 yards. The performance wasn't quite as impressive as it might have seemed, however, as the Chiefs stayed ahead of schedule on only 36.7% of their attempts and generated a middling 1.3 expected points added (EPA) on rushes, their seventh-best performance of the season on the ground. The Chiefs were loath to run against light boxes during that second half in the AFC Championship Game a year ago, but they can't make that same mistake again in the rematch.
Kansas City already was one of the league's worst teams on third-and-short, and those conversions will be an even bigger concern now. Mahomes isn't used on sneaks, but the Chiefs literally began this game with a speed option between him and Pacheco, a concept Reid has pulled out in short-yardage situations before. Mahomes' prior postseason injury -- a concussion suffered against the Browns in the 2020 playoffs -- also came on a third-and-1 speed option. If Mahomes isn't mobile enough to boot or run play-action, defenses will find it much easier to key on what this offense is doing.
On the other hand, Kansas City has the league's best offense at managing third-and-long, converting a staggering 47.6% of the time in the 8-to-12-yard range this season. The league average this season was 27.6%, and just three offenses over the previous 15 years had a better percentage. Mahomes' ability to scramble and extend plays helped key that success; he averaged a league-high 3.7 seconds before passing in those situations. If he isn't able to do that, the Chiefs might be compromised on both third-and-short and third-and-long.
Naturally, if the offense isn't as effective, the other elements of the roster need to pick up the slack. The defense struggled to stop the run and was bailed out by a drop on what should have been a long touchdown pass to Christian Kirk and a Jamal Agnew fumble inside the 5-yard line. At the same time, Trevor Lawrence averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt, and a free pressure led to a game-sealing interception from rookie corner Jaylen Watson. They'll have a tough day ahead against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Likewise, special teams were a mixed bag Saturday. Harrison Butker hit a pair of 50-yard field goals, but Dave Toub's coverage units allowed kickoff returns of 42 and 63 yards to Agnew. This was the polar opposite of what we saw in the regular season, when the Chiefs generally were great on kickoff coverage and terrible at returning kicks. The Chiefs are more likely to rely on Butker if Mahomes is hobbled in the red zone, but either way, they'll need more out of their special teams to get by.
The Chiefs will get to stay home and play in front of partisan fans at Arrowhead in the AFC title game, but the Bengals won't be worried. Cincinnati has won 10 games in a row and its past three games against the Chiefs, including that fateful comeback against Kansas City at this stage a year ago. The Bengals are full of confidence and have every reason to believe they'll beat the Chiefs a fourth time. Mahomes has never been an underdog in any of his 12 prior playoff games; Kansas City opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the line already is down to -1.
Are the Eagles all the way back to their best?
Divisional round result: 38-7 win over the Giants
Score another one against the adage that it's tough to beat a team three times in one season. The Giants attempted to ride the exhilaration of last week's victory in Minnesota, arguing ahead of this matchup they weren't anything like the team that had lost by 26 points to the Eagles in Week 14. They were half-right ... because they were worse. The Eagles scored four touchdowns in the first half while holding Daniel Jones & Co. to zero points and 64 net yards. The only blemishes for Philadelphia were a Matt Breida touchdown in the third quarter and two futile attempts to get New York to jump offside on fourth down.
This was a dominant performance, but should we have expected less? The Eagles finished the season ranked third in DVOA, and they would have likely been second if not for Jalen Hurts' shoulder injury in December. The Giants were better than the Vikings, but at 21st in DVOA, they finished behind the Saints and Falcons. New York was outscored by its opponents by six points in the regular season, and it went 5-2-1 in meaningful one-score games before sitting its starters in Week 18. Depending on how you look at the Giants' story, they were Vikings Lite or Vikings Extra.
My concern heading into the postseason was that health might restrict the Eagles from being the Super Bowl contenders we saw earlier in the season. Hurts was kept out of the designed run game (with the exception of one carry), during his return in Week 18. Right tackle Lane Johnson missed the final two games of the season with an abdominal injury. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson had just returned from a lacerated kidney in Week 18, while slot corner Avonte Maddox didn't play Saturday with a toe injury.
The early returns were promising. Johnson played deep into the fourth quarter before leaving with the rest of Philadelphia's starters. Gardner-Johnson moved back into the role he played in New Orleans as the slot corner, with Reed Blankenship staying in the starting lineup at safety. Guard Landon Dickerson briefly left the game before returning, while edge rusher Brandon Graham was limited to 12 defensive snaps by an illness. Otherwise, the Eagles departed their blowout victory with a clean bill of health.
The big story was always going to be how Hurts looked after another week of rest. He looked just fine as a passer against the Giants in Week 18, and things weren't much different in the rematch. He hit DeVonta Smith for a 32-yard gain on the opening possession and didn't look back. The Eagles didn't need him to throw often, but he went 16-of-24 for 154 yards with two touchdowns. Facing a Giants defense that sent extra rushers 44% of the time, he took just one sack all game, which came as he was about to unload a downfield attempt. Hurts fumbled on the play, but the Eagles were able to recover.
The key number was going to be how the Eagles used Hurts on designed runs. Before his shoulder injury, he averaged just under seven designed runs (rush attempts without kneels or scrambles) per game. When he returned in Week 18, he carried the ball nine times for 13 yards, but just one of those attempts came on a designed run, which was a short-yardage sneak. Taking those runs out of the offense suggested the Eagles were (wisely) protecting their franchise quarterback, and I wanted to see whether that continued in the postseason.
Well, on Saturday night, Hurts had ... seven designed runs. The total might have grown even higher if the game were closer, but with a four-touchdown lead, the Eagles had Hurts keep the ball only once after the break. He was careful to get out of bounds or slide when the opportunity arose, but that's not much different from what we saw during the regular season. He is a smart player, and while he might have been a tiny bit more cautious on a play or two than the guy we saw in September and October, I don't think there was an appreciable difference on the ground.
Most of Hurts' runs came as keepers on various zone-read concepts, so he might have taken the ball more often if the Giants' defenders keyed more on the halfback rather than the quarterback. Nick Sirianni's offense tormented the Giants on those zone-read concepts throughout the game; ESPN Stats & Info noted afterward that the Eagles ran 33 zone-read plays for 221 yards and two touchdowns, the third most of any team in any game since 2011. Those runs generated 4.6 yards before contact.
If Hurts wasn't as big a threat to keep the ball, it would have been much easier to defend those runs. Instead, while he didn't have a huge game, the trio of Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 234 yards on 35 carries. The Eagles generated 14.7 rushing EPA, the most of any team in a playoff game over the past five seasons. It was the latest in a string of dominant performances by Philadelphia's rushing attack:
The Eagles have four of the five most dominant rushing games of the season by EPA, per @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/2CJOOcVlXs
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 22, 2023
As good as the Eagles' rushing attack looked, the pass rush was perhaps even better. With Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat racking up 1.5 sacks apiece, Philadelphia took down Jones five times and pressured him on 43.8% of his dropbacks. The Eagles also stayed disciplined in their rushing lanes and kept Jones in the pocket, limiting his ability to scramble. One week after running all over the Vikings, Jones managed just 24 yards on six attempts.
This was the sort of performance the Eagles needed to assert their dominance and re-stake their claim atop the NFC East. The only argument you can make is that this was a dream matchup for them. The Giants aren't a great team and fell behind early against a team built to play from ahead. Philadelphia's weakness is its run defense, and while Saquon Barkley ripped off a 39-yard carry, the Giants fell too far behind too quickly to stick with the run.
The Eagles will get a much more imposing opponent in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers are the lone remaining team with a better DVOA than the Eagles, and San Francisco's organizational philosophies might not be all that much different from their opponents on the opposite coast. The 49ers are built around a deep, devastating pass rush and forced a ton of takeaways this season.
If Trey Lance was under center for the 49ers, these two offenses might look similar. Instead, with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy in the picture, the Eagles will be the only ones relying heavily on a quarterback as part of their rushing attack. Hurts didn't break open the game with his running Sunday, but the threat of him as a runner crushed the Giants. The 49ers won't be as easy to outmaneuver, but with Hurts looking more like his usual self, the Eagles can feel like they're the favorites to win at home.
How did the Bengals overcome missing three starting offensive linemen to beat the Bills?
Divisional round result: 27-10 win over the Bills
We don't normally see missing offensive linemen become a major topic of discussion before NFL games, but the matchup between the Bengals and Bills was an exception. Cincinnati nearly won a Super Bowl behind a questionable line a year ago before it cracked in the second half against Aaron Donald and the Rams. The Bengals went out and found three new starters for that line this offseason, but by game day Sunday, only one of them was left. That man, Ted Karras, played through an injury throughout the win.
Three other linemen -- left tackle Jonah Williams, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La'el Collins -- were out. Facing the league's fourth-best defense by DVOA, this was supposed to be a major mismatch for the Bengals and one way for the Bills to stall Joe Burrow and his explosive group of playmakers. We saw the Chiefs and Mahomes fall apart in the Super Bowl without a line against the Buccaneers two years ago, so why wouldn't the same thing happen to Burrow?
Well, if you didn't know the Bengals were down to backups at both tackle spots, you wouldn't have known from watching Sunday's game tape. They dominated in the trenches and at all levels on offense. Brian Callahan's offense racked up 30 first downs, tying it for the third-most conversions in any single game against the Bills since coach Sean McDermott arrived in town in 2017.
How did they pull off such an impressive offensive performance against a well-regarded defense on the road? Let me tell you:
Burrow was his own best pass protector. I keep saying Burrow plays a significant role in keeping himself upright, and that's been both good and bad at times as a pro. He was responsible for some of those sacks against the Titans in that brutal game last postseason and for some of the hits he took over the first two weeks of the 2022 campaign, when it looked like he might not last the season.
Since then, Burrow has been great about getting the ball out quickly. Sunday was no exception. He took an average of just 2.5 seconds to get the ball out, which was the second-fastest release rate of the weekend. The only quarterback to get the ball out faster was Jalen Hurts, whose three fastest games this season in terms of average time before passing the ball were his three games against the Giants.
Going back to his time in college, Burrow has been an excellent processor. He tormented opposing teams out of empty formations during his final season at LSU with Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson playing receiver. He has been able to operate effectively out of quick game throughout the season, and he and Callahan had a few wrinkles lined up for key moments. He took an extra beat on a silent count to induce the Bills into a neutral-zone infraction on third-and-3 for a first down, while Callahan set up a fake screen for a touchdown pass to Hayden Hurst.
With the pass rush mitigated by his decision-making, Burrow was sacked only once on 37 dropbacks and was pressured just 21.1% of the time, the lowest rate for any quarterback in the divisional round. When the pass rush did begin to get home, he usually was able to step up in the pocket and create a throwing lane for a big play; the only sack of the day came when the Bills resorted to using star linebacker Matt Milano as a spy, and he brought down Burrow as he rose in the pocket on a third down.
I advocated for the Bills to use disguised coverages to try to slow down Burrow's processing and create mistakes, but it didn't work. When Leslie Frazier's defense spun its safeties, Burrow picked that scheme apart. There were too many plays in which the Bills ended up with a mismatch in coverage. Tremaine Edmunds, who was playing what might have been his final game with the team as he hits free agency, gave up four catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on five targets as the nearest defender in coverage. The Bills were down to a secondary full of backups once Dean Marlowe, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White went down injured in the second half, but the damage was done by then.
They ran the ball effectively. In part, that was because the Bengals simply overwhelmed the Bills up front. Burrow threw for only 242 yards because the offense was having fun running the ball down the Bills' throat. The Cincinnati rushing attack combined for 172 yards, 13 first downs and a touchdown on 34 carries.
This was an all-around impressive effort. That much-maligned offensive line ate Buffalo's lunch up front, as Karras & Co. created massive holes for their backs to run through. Before the Bengals spent most of the fourth quarter in obvious run situations while eating clock, their backs averaged 3.6 yards before being initially contacted by a Bills defender, which is the second-highest mark for the Bengals in any game this season. Their average rush attempt through three quarters was expected to gain 5.5 yards per carry, a remarkable amount for a team that doesn't rely on its quarterback to run very often.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine more than held up their end of the bargain, too; they generated 6.3 yards per carry and 110 rush yards over expectation before the fourth quarter. Both routinely seemed to run through the final tackle attempt and fall forward for extra yardage. As The Athletic's Nate Tice noted on Twitter, while the Bengals aren't an explosive rushing attack, they are efficient. They ranked fourth in rushing DVOA this season, and they were wildly impressive against the Bills.
It snowed. For years, we've assumed that a snow game in January in Orchard Park would benefit the Bills. The weather in Cincinnati isn't exactly Southern California, but with the Bills spending year after year battling snow and frigid temperatures in Buffalo, inclement weather was supposed to be part of their home-field advantage. When snow flurries started coming down before kickoff, it felt like a gift from the weather gods to the Bills.
It didn't quite work that way. Most players believe snow aids the offense, because offensive players know where the play is supposed to go and can route their footing accordingly. We've seen this impact pass rushes before; since 2000, NFL teams have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 5.7% of dropbacks in snow games and 6.2% of the time in all other conditions.
The snow slowed down both pass rushes. The Bengals got steadier pressure on Josh Allen than the Bills did on Burrow, but the two teams combined for just two sacks on 80 dropbacks, yielding a sack rate of 2.5%. The Bengals obviously would have hoped to get more pressure on Allen, but weather neutralizing both teams' rushes likely hurt Buffalo more.
The Bills were pretty banged up by the end of the game, too. Poyer and White saw their day come to an end as a result of a sickening midair collision of heads in the fourth quarter, but the Bills were already dealing with their own injury crisis before their two top defensive backs left the game.
Safety became a cascading issue. Micah Hyde was unable to return from the neck injury he suffered during the regular season. His backup was Damar Hamlin, who is recovering from the cardiac arrest in Cincinnati. Hamlin was replaced by Marlowe, who appeared to miscommunicate with Edmunds to produce a blown coverage on the game-opening touchdown by Chase. Marlowe himself suffered a groin injury in the first half and didn't return after the break.
More damaging might have been the injuries up front. The Bills brought in Von Miller to be the difference-maker for their pass rush in January, but the future Hall of Famer tore an ACL in Week 12 and missed the rest of the season. Fellow offseason import DaQuan Jones didn't have gaudy numbers, but the 320-pound defensive tackle helped against the run and ranked 13th among interior linemen in pass rush win rate during the regular season. He missed Sunday's loss because of a calf injury.
Outside of the injuries up front, the only other Bengals starter who missed Sunday's win was cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Zac Taylor's team battled injuries to many key players at different points during the season, but it is only banged up along the offensive line now. After the focus on its injuries this past week, Cincinnati will cede that spotlight to Patrick Mahomes and his ankle in advance of Sunday's AFC title game rematch. I don't think the hottest team in the conference will mind flying under the radar.
Are Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw the key for the 49ers to beat the Eagles?
Divisional round result: 19-12 win over the Cowboys
I would have called the Bengals the hottest team in the NFL if it weren't for the 49ers, whose victory over the Cowboys made it 12 consecutive games without a loss. The victory brought Brock Purdy to 7-0 as an NFL starter, knocked the Cowboys out of the postseason at the hands of their old rivals for the second consecutive season and only further reinforced defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans' virtues as a head-coaching candidate. Ryans had to cancel two interviews this past week to prepare for the Cowboys game; at this point, he might reasonably ask would-be suitors for a blank check.
Naturally, San Francisco's stars get plenty of attention after 12 wins in a row. This team has plenty of stars. On offense, it has Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as playmakers. Trent Williams is the league's best left tackle when healthy. Each of its three quarterbacks enjoyed the spotlight because they're quarterbacks. Things are just as bright on the defensive side of the ball, where the Niners have likely Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa and breakout All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga.
Warner and Greenlaw get lost in the shuffle at times. It would be hard to call them underrated when Warner has been a first-team All-Pro twice over the past three seasons, but their impact on the 49ers and how they make this defense work doesn't get the same sort of headlines. They are the fastest set of linebackers in football, and their rare ability to cover one of the league's top wideouts helped flip two of the most important plays in this game. Let's see how they helped win the game.
The first play is Dak Prescott's first-quarter interception. This is a third-and-9 from the Dallas 21-yard line in a 0-0 contest. Watch how the play unfolds from NFL Next Gen Stats' player tracking data:
Look at Dre Greenlaw run with CeeDee Lamb on the interception. pic.twitter.com/o1KpSmQBex
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 23, 2023
The Cowboys have curls coming from their two receivers on the outside. CeeDee Lamb (88) is lined up in the slot and likely has some flexibility in what sort of route he can run to get open against coverage in this scenario. Ryans shows Prescott a crowded line of scrimmage before the snap and what looks to be a single-high safety coverage behind the rush, with Lamb matched up against 49ers slot defender Jimmie Ward (1). That's a matchup Prescott will like if it works out one-on-one.
It doesn't. Ward ends up in coverage on Dalton Schultz (86) and adds onto the blitz when Schultz stays home to block. The 49ers end up sending six rushers at Prescott, leaving five men in coverage. Ezekiel Elliott (21) sneaks away from the rush and does get open, but Prescott isn't able to see him under pressure. Hufanga (29), who might have seemed like the most likely defender to take Lamb in man coverage if Ward blitzed, drops off and plays zone coverage.
Instead, the defender left to run with Lamb up the field is Greenlaw (57), who walls off Lamb from crossing over or running anything that breaks to his side of the field. I suspect Greenlaw had help from Tashaun Gipson (31) over the top, but this is no easy task for a linebacker against one of the league's best wide receivers. If Lamb runs past Greenlaw, this has the potential to be a big play. If he can shake him over the middle of the field, it's a first down. Instead, Prescott has to go through his progression, doesn't see Elliott and throws late toward Michael Gallup (13), only to hand Deommodore Lenoir (38) an easy interception.
The next play was even more impressive. This comes in the third quarter with the game tied 9-9 and the Cowboys facing a third-and-5 from the San Francisco 40-yard line. A completion pushes the Cowboys into scoring range, and a big play sets them up for what could have been a critical touchdown in a game in which there weren't many points to go around.
Four verts from the Cowboys on third down. pic.twitter.com/JUmUeBbELR
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 23, 2023
Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore dials up one of the simplest (and most effective) concepts in the book in four verticals, with each of his receivers running straight up the field. Prescott simply has to pick his favorite matchup and get the ball out in stride. He also has Elliott (21) available and uncovered again on a shallow route as a checkdown.
Ryans shows an A-gap pressure with both of his linebackers and manufactures a free rusher. The Cowboys adjust their protection, but both linebackers drop off and Hufanga (29) comes crashing through totally untouched on a slot blitz, forcing Prescott to get the ball out quickly.
Hufanga was standing over Lamb (88) in the slot, which leaves a virtually impossible assignment for Warner (54). Warner has to show a blitz over the A-gap on the left side of the center, sprint away at the snap and run up the opposite seam with Lamb. It's tough enough when some defenses ask middle linebackers to run 20 yards up the seam with a tight end in Tampa-2 looks. The 49ers are asking Warner to run down a star wide receiver and giving him a spatial head start in the process.
Warner goes ahead and does it. The 26-year-old linebacker runs stride for stride with Lamb, topping out at 18.1 mph. (Lamb peaked at 19.2 mph on the same play.) Prescott sees what should be a mismatch before having to get rid of the football and makes an excellent throw to where he thinks Lamb will come open, but Warner shielded Lamb from the ball for a pass breakup.
This play is an encapsulation of why both Ryans and Warner make this defense work. Ryans is able to use the threat of the linebackers blitzing to manipulate the protection. If both linebackers came, the 49ers would have had Bosa one-on-one against Tyler Smith (73), which forces the center to turn to his left; once he does, the 49ers have three pass-rushers against two linemen on the right side of the line, creating the unblocked defender. If Prescott has time, he might be able to work the left side of the field to hit Schultz (86) or T.Y. Hilton (16), but he doesn't have time.
Warner might be the NFL's only linebacker who can cover as much ground as he does to defend against Lamb on this play. Lamb had a big game out of the slot, finishing with 117 yards on 13 targets, but this is a touchdown against most middle linebackers. Warner's recovery speed turned the play into a punt, and the 49ers took a lead they wouldn't relinquish on the ensuing possession.
Having two linebackers who can run like they're defensive backs is going to come in handy against the Eagles, who have a quarterback who runs like a halfback. Jalen Hurts changes the math for opposing defenses and makes them wrong by becoming part of the rushing attack; having Warner and Greenlaw (and third linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who will be on the field when the Eagles use two or more tight ends) gives the 49ers a better chance of holding up in a fair fight.
Hurts also has improved drastically this season by throwing over the middle of the field. ESPN Stats & Information research has a pass direction split that separates the field into 15 vertical zones. If we focus on the seven zones in the middle of the field, Hurts averaged just 44.8 passing yards per game in that area a year ago. After adding A.J. Brown, who excels in that area of the field, Hurts averaged more than 79 yards per game across the middle in 2022.
The 49ers, unsurprisingly, posted a league-best 52.9 QBR and allowed the league's seventh-fewest yards per attempt on throws to that area of the field. They intercepted an even 5% of passes in those zones, which also was the best mark. The middle of the field is a no-fly zone for opposing offenses against San Francisco. Hurts will get to test his growth against the league's best duo.
Like 49ers-Cowboys, I don't think 49ers-Eagles will be the most beautiful game of the weekend. If you look closely, though, you're going to see a few plays from Warner and Greenlaw that might qualify as attractive linebacker play. Ryans deserves a head-coaching job and should get one this offseason, but it's a shame the former standout linebacker (and once-Eagles player) won't get to take San Francisco's star duo to his new digs.