The 2022 NFL offseason was one of the wildest in recent memory.
The Seattle Seahawks stepped out boldly (or clairvoyantly?) and traded Russell Wilson, considered at the time a top passer in his prime.
The Cleveland Browns shook the league with the Deshaun Watson deal.
Tom Brady's retirement lasted about 40 days, before Brady realized he preferred the pocket to the golf course.
Ten NFL franchises changed head coaches.
Three top receivers -- Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown -- changed teams via trade.
Like we do every January, we tried to forecast some of the action by talking to evaluators and coaches around the league. Not every prediction looks smart -- the one about the Eagles moving on from Jalen Hurts was rather painful. But we got plenty right, too, including Wilson wearing a new jersey, the Browns trading Baker Mayfield, Sean Payton taking a TV gig and the Steelers drafting Ben Roethlisberger's successor in Kenny Pickett.
This year feels even harder to predict. Is there a natural home for Aaron Rodgers? Tough to read. Will Lamar Jackson really wear a new jersey before 2023? Anything feels possible, but there's hardly evidence of that at the moment. Free agency and the draft will keep a frantic pace of moves that are hard to crystallize just yet.
Nonetheless, we asked a selection of top league executives to come with bold takes only. Here are some of the themes that emerged from those conversations:
Jump to 2023 predictions for:
Brady | Lamar | Carr | Rodgers
Rams/Raiders | Burrow/Herbert | Hopkins
Andy Reid | Lions/Browns | 49ers QBs
If he plays, Tom Brady will sign with the Las Vegas Raiders
This one's been telegraphed since the end of the season -- it's now the worst-kept secret that Las Vegas would have interest in signing Brady.
A few teams I've spoken to expect Brady to retire. But should he play, the Raiders believe they are one of about three teams that he would consider. Tampa Bay isn't out of it yet, though Brady appeared to say his goodbyes to the media in his last news conference with the team following the playoff loss to Dallas.
"I just think with the weapons they have and the familiarity with Josh McDaniels' offense and the people there, it would be a seamless transition for him," a veteran AFC offensive coach said.
Lamar Jackson to ... the Falcons?
People in the building in Owings Mills, Maryland, believe coach John Harbaugh and general manager Eric DeCosta are sincere when they say publicly they are all-in on Lamar Jackson as a Raven, in both the short and long term. And some executives around the league believe the same thing.
But others are skeptical, foreseeing more roadblocks in contract negotiations that might never get cleared if Jackson persists in his demand for a fully guaranteed deal.
The Ravens don't have any plans to let Jackson hit free agency, so the franchise tag is expected. The question is, which tag do they use? The exclusive franchise tag, which would pay Jackson around $45 million, allows the Ravens to retain his rights no matter what. They can still trade him and could control the terms. With a non-exclusive tag, which would pay between $30 million and $35 million, suitors can submit offer sheets under the stipulation that they must give up two first-round picks to acquire Jackson. Either way, the Ravens will probably receive offers. Teams I've talked to see the Jets and Dolphins as good fits who might have interest, but both have one big hang-up: They play in the AFC.
"I don't think Baltimore wants to deal him in conference and have to see him on the field," a high-ranking AFC exec said. If that leaves NFC teams, then multiple people believe the Falcons would make sense as a destination. General manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith have spent two years cleansing the roster and now have an estimated $56 million in cap space.
"Good running game, an offense that could be friendly to Lamar while helping him grow as a passer, big receivers with a catch radius, which he needs due to accuracy issues, young regime on an improving team looking for a quarterback solution," an NFL scouting director said. "Not sure if that's their plan, but it would make some sense."
But a core question persists: Why would Baltimore move on from a quarterback with a 45-16 career record as a starter?
"They've built their entire offense around him, and I don't see them rebuilding," an AFC executive said.
Derek Carr will sign with the Texans
Nearly a dozen teams could be looking for a quarterback this offseason, beginning with the AFC South and the NFC South, where every team save Jacksonville appears to be in transition at the game's most important position.
Carr will be coveted due to the leaguewide demand, a situation that gives leverage to the Raiders, who must navigate Carr's no-trade clause but will want to maximize value before Carr's $40.4 million guarantee is due Feb. 15.
One veteran AFC coach points to Houston, where GM Nick Caserio has ties to Raiders GM Dave Ziegler, as a potential destination. Caserio and Ziegler have executed multiple trades in the past.
Yes, Houston could take a quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft, but it also has 11 picks, including two in the top 12. That's plenty of ammunition to execute a deal.
"Nick will be looking for a high-character quarterback. That will be important to him," the coach said. "Derek fits that mold." And he's got a natural tie to Houston -- his brother, David, was the franchise's first-ever pick in the NFL draft, No. 1 overall in 2002.
Aaron Rodgers will be a ... Jet? A Colt?
It appeared Green Bay executed last year's contract extension with Rodgers with the 2022 and 2023 seasons in mind. After 2023, the Packers will have paid Rodgers around $101 million on the deal, at which time they could walk away and save some cap space.
But things can change. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that the possibility of a deal for Rodgers after just one year on the new deal is "real." Rodgers has publicly acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his tenure. And Jordan Love, after three years playing behind Rodgers, is ready to play. It wouldn't shock some teams around the league if Love requested a trade should Rodgers stay in Green Bay.
There are a lot of moving parts here, and many execs see Green Bay keeping Rodgers no matter what, but one thing is clear: Rodgers' balloon payment, an option bonus of $58.3 million -- which is guaranteed and set to be exercised between March 17 and Week 1 -- must be addressed. Prospective teams must have the cap space to absorb that. Luckily for those teams, his option bonuses over the next two years prorate through 2026, leaving cap hits of around $15.75 million this year and $32.5 million the next ($48.3 million in total).
That leads us to ... the Jets, who wouldn't be on the list of teams I'd think Rodgers would be clamoring to join in his pursuit of a championship. But New York fans are starved for steady quarterback play, and maybe GM Joe Douglas will be, too.
Some people around the league can see it -- assuming the Jets work on that cap deficit of nearly $3 million.
"That receiving corps is really talented and you know the defense is good," an NFC coordinator said. "They have pieces and are trending up. They should be desperate to get a QB in my opinion."
One NFC executive brought up an interesting team that's sort of random but would make some sense on paper: Indianapolis. The Colts enter the offseason with $20.6 million in cap space. They absolutely need a quarterback. Despite a four-win season, the roster is not void of talent, especially on defense. And Indy owns the fourth overall pick, an easy dangling point in a potential deal with Green Bay.
"[Indianapolis general manager Chris] Ballard has to get one [a quarterback] and get it right," the executive said. "Maybe they just draft one and save the money, but Rodgers would be different than their other past stopgap options because he's more of a sure thing."
Rams, Raiders will trade big names
Teams move off high-earning players for a variety of reasons, a reality the Rams and Raiders could prove over the next few months.
For Los Angeles, the reason is clear: The Rams are nearly $14 million over the salary cap and have six players with cap hits of $20-plus million. Two of those players, wide receiver Cooper Kupp ($27.8. million) and quarterback Matthew Stafford ($20 million), aren't going anywhere. The other three -- defensive tackle Aaron Donald ($26 million), cornerback Jalen Ramsey ($25.2 million) and pass-rusher Leonard Floyd ($22 million) -- have cap hits to give L.A. something to think about (though it's hard to believe the Rams would deal Donald).
Restructuring a few contracts would get the team in palatable cap position, but after a five-win season, the Rams could revisit their top-heavy roster philosophy.
"[Ramsey] is one I think the Rams will at least explore [moving]," one AFC personnel director said. "He's still a top guy, but the play has fallen off a little bit and [he] could use a change of scenery."
Ramsey, 28, was the NFL's No. 1 corner for two consecutive seasons in our summer executive polls. He would have a market.
Meanwhile in Vegas, I've talked to a few people around the league who expect coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler to continue aggressively tweaking the roster. McDaniels is big on "culture fits" and will want his own guys. Teams will be keeping an eye on tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow in that process.
And, as mentioned above, the Raiders believe they are one of a handful of teams Tom Brady would consider should he decide to play football in 2023.
Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow will make $50-plus million per year
Herbert and Burrow are now eligible for extensions after completing their third regular seasons. They are under contract through 2023 along with a fifth-year option for 2024, which both teams will inevitably pick up.
The expectation is both players sign new deals that surpass Rodgers' league-high average of $50.3 million per year.
The Bengals and Chargers aren't known for their spending, and in big-money deals like this, teams must set aside all of the guaranteed money in escrow, which complicates matters. But both teams have taken care of homegrown talent in the past, with several key players on each side under long-term deals. And Burrow and Herbert -- largely considered top-tier passers -- take out most of the guesswork often present with long and costly contracts.
"Largely durable, great guys, great players -- they will be expensive but this is an easy decision," an NFL GM said.
DeAndre Hopkins to the Patriots? To the Ravens?
At age 30 with a $19.4 million base salary, Hopkins might not merit a first-round pick in return (like he probably did in 2020 when Houston shipped him to Arizona for a second-round pick and David Johnson). The Cardinals would be wise to eat some of the money to facilitate a deal.
Bill Belichick is a huge admirer of Hopkins' game and needs a game-changing receiver in the worst way. He's also one of the league's most active traders.
Arizona is on the hook for Hopkins' $11 million in prorated signing bonus.
"That would be interesting to pair Bill O'Brien with Hopkins if O'Brien ends up with the Patriots OC job," an NFC exec said. "They might not be friendly. But they had success together with subpar quarterback play, so maybe it can work."
Another team mentioned is Baltimore. In Hopkins, the Ravens would be getting a true vertical threat for Lamar Jackson, who many coaches say needs a rangy target. If Baltimore is serious about keeping Jackson, it's time to get him more firepower on the outside.
Andy Reid steps away after a second Super Bowl title?
This one is hardly a slam dunk with Reid still dominating and Patrick Mahomes set to quarterback the Chiefs for the next decade.
But it's worth noting that when people involved in the coaching carousel talk about jobs, they often ask whether Reid will walk away at some point in the short term.
Reid is 64, with the impressive distinction as the NFL's only head coach with at least 10 playoff wins with multiple teams (Eagles, Chiefs). If Kansas City wins the next two games, Reid enters the exclusive club of coaches with multiple Super Bowl rings.
"I just think at some point he could make the life decision to walk away from the grind," an AFC scout said. "I could at least see it."
Lions, Browns break through
Detroit finished the 2022 season as one of the league's hottest teams and brings back most of its offensive nucleus along with a defense brimming with young talent. A healthy sophomore season for Jameson Williams should only propel Jared Goff, who has built a strong rapport with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
A few people we spoke to floated Detroit as a divisional winner in 2023.
"I'm not completely sold on Jared Goff keeping up his play from this year, but if he can, there's no reason why they can't do some damage in the playoffs," an NFC exec said.
The Browns are still equipped with a top-shelf offensive line/running game and can bolster the lineup with wide receiver or defensive line help. The defense should be better under new coordinator Jim Schwartz.
"Deshaun Watson was average this year but should be better with a full offseason," an NFC scout said. "He's going to have to be."
Brock Purdy and Trey Lance battle for 49ers' QB1 job in training camp
Purdy has been efficient as a starter and is due $870,000 in base salary next year, which would allow San Francisco to sign more players around him. Lance has just four starts, not enough to gauge a No. 3 overall pick whom the 49ers traded three first-round picks to acquire.
"If the 49ers want to play Purdy next year, then I could see them trying to get Trey Lance's value up, and a competition in camp could bring out the best in him," an NFC executive said.