<
        >

          NFL divisional round playoff game plans: Keys to win, upset X factors

          • Matt BowenJan 22, 2023, 03:00 PM ET
            Close
              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
            Follow on X

          We are down to a few teams still chasing Super Bowl LVII as we hit the NFL playoffs' divisional round. And anything can happen if things go right.

          So we dug into the tape to pick out keys to victory -- one offensive and one defensive -- for every team this weekend. These are the game plan blueprints that can help all eight teams reach the conference championships. Based on what I've seen on tape and with some help from the numbers, we can get a better feel for how coaching staffs will scheme for personnel, game situation and coverage. And with a few big underdogs in the divisional-round slate, we also picked out an X factor player who could play a big part in pulling off an upset.

          Here are the game plan keys for all four games, along with the ESPN Football Power Index projections for each matchup.

          (5) Dallas Cowboys at (2) San Francisco 49ers

          When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox
          Line: SF -3.5 (46.5)
          FPI prediction: DAL by 1

          How the 49ers can beat the Cowboys

          1. Stress the Dallas defense with 21 personnel

          The 49ers can create more matchups than any other team in the NFL with 21 personnel in the game (2RB, 1TE, 2WR). We can call it positionless football given the versatility of the skill group here. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk and Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers have five players with formation/alignment flexibility and solid catch-and-run traits.

          During the regular season, the 49ers averaged 6.1 yards per play (eighth) and over 121.3 total yards per game (second) out of 21 personnel. It creates both schematic and matchup advantages in coach Kyle Shanahan's system, and Dallas will have to find a way to counter it against both the run and pass.

          2. Deploy linebacker Fred Warner as a third-down blitzer

          When we talk about the 49ers' defense, the focus shifts to defined coverages and zone discipline. I get it. But defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans' unit will turn up the heat on third down out of his five-man surfaces, with Warner walked up into the front.

          This season, the 49ers registered a blitz rate of 31.5% on third down, which ranked ninth in the league. This is where Ryans can deploy Warner as the fifth rusher, using twists and stunts out of tilted fronts to manipulate protection. In turn, it will also create one-on-ones for edge rusher Nick Bosa. More pressure and more man coverage from Ryans' unit on third down can help take away Dak Prescott's throwing platform in the pocket.

          How the Cowboys can beat the 49ers

          1. Get quarterback Dak Prescott to the edges

          Based on the pass-rush matchups for the 49ers and the incredible zone depth that we see from the second level of Ryans' defense on dropback throws, I really like the idea of Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore scheming more play-action and boot. Including last week's wild-card game against the Seahawks, San Francisco has allowed 8.1 yards per attempt on play-action throws and 7.9 yards per attempt on boot play-action, which both rank 22nd in the league this season.

          Getting more of this will help Prescott grab the eyes of the backside curl/hook defenders, move the pocket and create a new platform with three-level reads. And I like it even more in scoring position, where tight end Dalton Schultz becomes a prime target on flats and crossers to vacated zones. On 15 play-action throws in the red zone this season, Prescott had five TD passes and zero interceptions.

          2. Change the post-snap picture for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy

          The rookie quarterback is playing really good football. He looks poised and confident, and I see detailed footwork. The ball is coming out quick, too. Purdy will hit the schemed throws in Shanahan's offense, but has he seen a defense with this level of speed, talent and late movement yet?

          Look for Cowboys coordinator Dan Quinn to make Purdy work by changing the pre- and post-snap picture. During the regular season, Dallas disguised its looks on 32.4% of coverage snaps, the second most in the league. Show man coverage, then rotate to Cover 2 or 2-Invert. Bring simulated pressure out of a quarters shell from the second and third level. Spin the safeties at the snap. We saw a lot of this from the Dallas defense against Tom Brady in the wild-card win over the Buccaneers, and Purdy is up next. Let's see if he can read it out after the ball is snapped. It'll be a great test for the rookie.

          Cowboys' upset X factor: DaRon Bland, CB

          With Bland's inside/outside flexibility, the Cowboys can disguise coverage and cater to his matchup traits. The rookie logged five interceptions and seven pass breakups this season, and he has the lower-body agility to stick with the 49ers' Aiyuk.

          (4) Jacksonville Jaguars at (1) Kansas City Chiefs

          The Chiefs won 27-20.

          How the Chiefs can beat the Jaguars

          1. Scheme up receiver Kadarius Toney

          Toney posted his best numbers this year in the Chiefs' Week 10 game against the Jags, logging 90 total yards and a score on six offensive touches. We saw the jet sweep. We saw the boot concepts with Toney fast to the flat. And we saw the double move.

          I think the volume can increase for Toney. I expect more targets in the route structure, along with some manufactured touches to get him loose in space. He's a sudden mover with ball-carrier vision. And he adds another element to coach Andy Reid's playbook.

          2. Play robber coverage with dime personnel

          The Chiefs are a heavy dime package defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, playing 252 snaps with six defensive backs on the field (third-most in the league). And I would look for Kansas City to match in man coverage here, especially on third downs, while playing Cover 1 robber in the secondary.

          Why? This allows the Chiefs to show two-high looks before the snap, with rookie safety Bryan Cook spinning down late as the robber to clog up middle-of-the-field throwing lanes. Then man-coverage defenders can play with an outside shade and funnel the in-breakers toward Cook.

          How the Jaguars can beat the Chiefs

          1. Isolate receiver Christian Kirk against man coverage

          In the Week 10 head-to-head matchup, the Chiefs played man coverage -- including single-high, zero and two-man looks -- on 66.7% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks. And those are core coverage schemes under Spagnuolo. That's why I'm focused on Kirk. Over the course of the regular season, 32 of Kirk's 39 catches against man looks went for a first down. And he caught nine of 12 targets in that game against Kansas City for 105 yards and two touchdowns.

          We saw the unders here, with almost 45% of Kirk's routes run on quick outs or in-breakers. But he ran deep crossers, too, and Lawrence took a vertical shot in the high red zone, hitting Kirk on a fade ball for a touchdown.

          Kirk logged eight receptions from slot alignments in Jacksonville's in-season meeting with the Chiefs, and that's where we should see him on Saturday. He has the lateral agility to shake coverage and make himself available to Lawrence on high-percentage throws.

          2. Stay out of Cover 3

          The Jags played zone coverage on over 75% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks in the Week 10 game. I would expect a similar zone-heavy approach from Jacksonville, but with a focus on two-high shells. Why? Because Reid will scheme to beat Cover 3 by creating vacated voids in the outside one-third of the defense, and those are explosive-play opportunities for Mahomes. Mahomes' 77.6 QBR against Cover 3 was third in the NFL this season.

          Instead, you want to see Jags safeties Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins aligned in Cover 2 or quarters -- which we saw on the Week 10 tape -- and in a position to drive top-down on everything. That will help limit the Chiefs' ability to push the ball down the field.

          Jaguars' upset X factor: Josh Allen, OLB

          With a heavy zone coverage script, the Jags have to create pass-rush production against Mahomes. Allen has recorded a sack in each of his past three games, with 16 total pressures over that stretch. Jacksonville has to disrupt the pocket off the edge here.

          (6) New York Giants at (1) Philadelphia Eagles

          The Eagles won 38-7.

          How the Eagles can beat the Giants

          1. Stick with the run game out of 12 personnel

          In the Eagles' Week 14 game against New York, they rushed for 9.2 yards per carry out of 12 personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR), including eight runs of 10 or more yards. On tape, we saw counterschemes with running back Miles Sanders finding open daylight and split-flow zone. Sanders broke 100 rushing yards on runs out of 12 personnel alone. And then there were the quarterback-deigned runs with Jalen Hurts -- power, zone read and zone lead.

          So why not stay with it? Philadelphia has logged 146 rushing attempts in 12 personnel this season, fifth-most in the league. This is a staple of the Eagles' offense. And with the versatility of their run game -- which includes powerful and easy movers up front -- the Eagles can play downhill or get to the edges.

          2. Be multiple on third down against Giants QB Daniel Jones

          The Eagles held Jones to a 30.6 QBR on third downs in that first regular-season matchup (Jones sat the second time around with the playoffs secured), and defensive coordinator John Gannon presented a very multiple call sheet. Philly played a mix of single-high man coverage and Quarters, and I saw some invert looks and plenty of pressure, too. Defensive line stunts created pass-rush production.

          With their perimeter matchups of cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry, we could see even more man coverage on third down from the Eagles this weekend (41.7% in Week 14). And then look for more schemed fronts to get one-on-ones from edge rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat. Philadelphia has to win the money downs.

          How the Giants can beat the Eagles

          1. Occupy the safeties in split-safety coverage

          If we go back to Week 14, you can see the split-safety tendencies from the Eagles. In that game, Philly played two-high zone coverage on 46.5% of Jones' dropbacks. Giants coach Brian Daboll can scheme to clear or occupy the safeties, which will create second-level windows for the quarterback to drive the ball on crossers, middle-of-the-field sit routes and deep in-breakers. You want to give Jones, who was 7-of-12 passing for 84 yards in Week 14 against two-high zone coverage, more opportunities to create chunk plays in the pass game.

          2. Don't let Eagles receiver A.J. Brown beat you

          Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will need to make run game adjustments after the Eagles rushed for 253 yards in the Week 14 win. But let's not forget about what Brown can do in the Eagles' pass game, too. With the Giants playing single-high coverage (Cover 1 and Cover 3) on more than 72% of Hurts' dropbacks in that Week 14 matchup, Brown finished with 70 receiving yards and a TD catch on four receptions.

          So how do you slow Brown? You have to take away the slant routes and the vertical one-on-one shot plays. That could mean bracket coverage in critical game situations, like the Giants showed against Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson in the wild-card win. It could also mean more quarters with the safeties driving on slant balls. Given Brown's physical profile and ability to play through contact after the catch, I wouldn't stick in solo coverage all game long.

          Giants' upset X factor: Richie James, WR

          James has seen at least six targets in each of his past three games, making 19 catches over that span. Let's see if the Giants can get James loose off the ball against man coverage to use his catch-and-run traits and deploy him on middle-of-the-field throws for Jones to attack the creases in zone shells. James will need to make plays in critical down-and-distance situations for the Giants to advance.

          (3) Cincinnati Bengals at (2) Buffalo Bills

          When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on CBS
          Line: BUF -5.5 (48.5)
          FPI prediction: BUF by 5

          How the Bills can beat the Bengals

          1. Attack the perimeter matchups in the pass game

          Given the Bengals' tendency to play more single-high coverage (over 50% this season), I like the matchups of Buffalo receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the perimeter against the Bengals' corners (Eli Apple and rookie Cam Taylor-Britt). And I think this is where offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey can set up his shot-play throws for quarterback Josh Allen. Manipulate the free safety with scheme to keep him high in the post, and then take your vertical one-on-ones on the outside.

          I would start with Diggs, who has run vertical routes at a clip of 35.4% this season. He can get late separation down the field on deep-ball throws. His 21 catches on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield tied for the NFL's seventh most this season, and he caught two in the wild-card matchup against the Dolphins -- including a big 52-yard gain to set up the game's first touchdown.

          2. Win at the second level on defense

          Including the wild-card win over the Ravens last weekend, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has registered a QBR of just 36.6 against two-high safety zone coverage this season. And we know the Bills are a core split-safety defense. But you still have to win at the second level with excellent zone eyes, discipline and depth to close the intermediate windows as hook/curl defenders.

          That's why I'll be watching slot corner Taron Johnson -- along with linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds -- in the Bills' nickel package, which is their base defense. They can help maintain that depth and create on-the-ball production, with safeties playing for tips and overthrows. It is going to be a big element to this game.

          How the Bengals can beat the Bills

          1. Throw the ball out of empty sets

          Given what we expect to see with the Bills in two-high coverages, the Bengals can go with more empty backfields in this matchup. On the season, Burrow attempted 114 passes out of empty sets, completing 68.4% of his throws. The ball gets out quick in these spots, with Cincinnati leaning on its base concepts with Hi-Lo reads and zone beaters that force underneath defenders to expand in their drops.

          From there, Burrow can feed slant throws to Ja'Marr Chase, hit the quick in-breakers to Tee Higgins or throw the underneath choice routes to Tyler Boyd. Remember, the Bengals are heading into this game with a beat-up offensive front, and empty formations will define the Bills' coverages pre-snap -- which will put Burrow in a position to read it out with speed.

          2. Deploy cornerback Mike Hilton on slot pressures

          The Bengals are not a heavy pressure team, but when we do see blitz concepts, the focus shifts to the secondary. Cincinnati blitzed defensive backs at a rate of 10.7% this season, the 10th highest in the NFL. And Hilton can be a disruptor in this game -- versus both the run and pass -- on slot pressures.

          Hilton is one of the best nickel corners I've watched this season, and the Bengals can use late movement to scrape the edge with him against perimeter run schemes or get a free run at Allen. Let's put Hilton in a position to create impact plays on Sunday.

          Bengals' upset X factor: Tyler Boyd, WR

          I mentioned Boyd above, and I'm sticking with the wide receiver here because of the middle-of-the-field matchups that he can create against zone coverage. He can find the voids or work off the leverage of linebackers to catch the ball in space. And Boyd can also be the outlet target for Burrow between the numbers, where Boyd caught 34 of 44 targets this season.