As we hit Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season, eight teams are still trying to clinch one of three remaining playoff spots. The Jaguars and Titans face off Saturday in a win-and-in situation for the AFC South title, and the Jaguars could actually still slip into a wild-card berth with a loss if they get some help. The Packers and Patriots also have win-and-in scenarios, though only the Patriots have a chance to still make it if they lose. And then there are four teams -- the Seahawks, Lions, Dolphins and Steelers -- that need a win to simply stay alive and have a chance at all, though their fates rely on other matchups.
So how can each of these teams that need to win this weekend get it done? Let's run through one big game plan key to victory for all eight franchises. We'll focus on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, clinching scenarios are detailed below for each team, which are listed from best to worst chance to make the playoffs via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Here are the game planning focal points for the eight teams still in the running for a playoff spot, starting with the Jaguars.
Jump to playoff contender:
JAX | GB | MIA | NE
SEA | PIT | TEN | DET
What the Jacksonville Jaguars need to do to win vs. the Titans
Game: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 87.7%
Clinching scenario: Win OR losses by NE, MIA, PIT
Key to victory: Feature tight end Evan Engram as a three-level target in the pass game.
Engram has recorded seven or more receptions in three of his past four games, which includes a previous matchup against the Titans. He caught 11 of 15 targets against Tennessee for 162 yards and two scores.
And Engram's route tree was multiple in that contest, with schemed concepts to beat both zone and man coverage based on down, distance and game situation. Tennessee played zone coverage on 74% of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks in that game, with Jags coach Doug Pederson setting up his tight end on seams, corners and unders to attack open voids. And when the Jags did anticipate man coverage -- mainly on third downs -- Engram was deployed on crossers and pivot routes to win those matchups.
He's a versatile player based on where he aligns and his route structure, and he should be a prime target for Lawrence again on Saturday night in Jacksonville. Only the Seahawks have allowed more yardage to tight ends this season than the Titans (1,089), and Engram should take advantage.
What the Green Bay Packers need to do to win vs. the Lions
Game: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 66.7%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Run away from Detroit's man coverage.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will have opportunities to scheme for man coverage Sunday night at Lambeau Field. The Lions have played Cover 1 (or man free coverage) on 39.1% of coverage snaps this season, third most in the league. And if we go back to the Week 9 game between these two teams, Rodgers posted 198 yards passing against man coverage, including three explosive-play throws (20-plus yards).
This is where Rodgers -- who is still the NFL's best at identifying and throwing the one-on-ones -- can target the slot fades and outside verticals when he reads single-high coverage. But also look for the Packers to throw their staple glance routes and crossers off play-action, with receivers Christian Watson, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs in position to simply run away from leverage. Detroit has allowed 13.9 yards per catch when facing man looks this season, second-highest in the league behind the Bears.
What the Miami Dolphins need to do to win vs. the Jets
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 49.5%
Clinching scenario: Win AND loss by NE
Key to victory: Attack the Jets' two-high shells with the run game.
Given the quarterback situation in Miami -- Skylar Thompson is expected to start due to injuries to both Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater -- I'm looking at coach Mike McDaniel's run game against the Jets' heavily defined defensive scheme. You'll see split-safety alignments from New York, which will create a lighter front for Dolphins running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.
In their first meeting this season (Week 5), Miami averaged 6.2 yards per carry against the Jets' two-high safety looks. With McDaniel's ability to scheme his run game out of multiple personnel groupings, Miami can gain an edge here. But it also sets Thompson up with clear reads to target wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on short-to-intermediate throws and let them pick up chunks of yardage after the catch.
What the New England Patriots need to do to win at the Bills
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 33.2%
Clinching scenario: Win OR losses by MIA, PIT, TEN
Key to victory: Deploy safety Kyle Dugger as a second-level disruptor.
Dugger, the NFL's most versatile safety, needs to play a disruptive role against Bills quarterback Josh Allen as a hybrid defender in coach Bill Belichick's scheme. With the zone coverage traits to get to depth as a hook/curl defender, plus the ability to match/carry out of the slot, Dugger can be deployed from multiple second-level alignments to create on-the-ball production, as seen below in a Week 17 interception.
.@Patriots take the lead on a pick-6!
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2023
📺: #MIAvsNE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/b9AODMuLy1 pic.twitter.com/XZGMmfPCGj
New England can use late movement and disguises to muddy the looks for Allen post-snap, with Dugger lurking in the weeds to close throwing windows. In the Week 13 head-to-head matchup, Dugger logged 71 defensive snaps, with 30 at linebacker and 15 more in the slot. He had five tackles and two pass breakups in that game.
What the Seattle Seahawks need to do to win vs. the Rams
Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 20.7%
Clinching scenario: Win AND loss by GB
Key to victory: Clear and replace in the pass game against zone coverage.
In a matchup with the NFL's most zone-heavy defense (73.3% of coverage snaps this season), Geno Smith and the Seahawks can manipulate defenders to create schemed voids against the Rams' staple Cover 3 and quarters coverages.
In Week 13, when these two teams played, Smith completed 74.1% of his throws against zone coverage (20 of 27). And we saw the Seahawks clearing out over the top to open up windows on leveled concepts. That means deep crossers and over routes, giving Smith a clear read from the pocket to target DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and his tight ends. And given the Rams defensive template, the Seahawks can set up Smith again for explosive play opportunities. He had four against Los Angeles the last time around.
Geno finds DK to put the @Seahawks ahead!
— NFL (@NFL) December 5, 2022
📺: #SEAvsLAR on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HIkZtH0OMm pic.twitter.com/oWUV2Kko4A
What the Pittsburgh Steelers need to do to win vs. the Browns
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 15.6%
Clinching scenario: Win AND losses by NE, MIA
Key to victory: Use motion and split-flow in the run game.
The Week 17 tape on Steelers running back Najee Harris was his best of the season. We saw great ball carrier vision, short-area acceleration and pop in his pads to finish runs. Harris rushed for 111 yards in the win over the Ravens, as the Steelers' usage of pre-snap motion (jet) with their split-flow zone schemes created both open daylight and cutback lanes for Harris. On runs with motion at the snap, Harris logged 62 rushing yards (5.6 per carry) against Baltimore.
Pittsburgh can again grab some eyes at the second level with misdirection and carve out running lanes for Harris. He's a downhill, volume grinder who can produce viable rushing totals against a Browns defense that has struggled against the run this season. Cleveland has allowed 4.8 yards per carry, eighth-highest in the NFL. And when it faces motion at the snap, that balloons to 5.8, which is fourth-worst.
What the Tennessee Titans need to do to win at the Jaguars
Games: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 14.0%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Lean on 11 personnel run schemes with running back Derrick Henry.
In the Week 14 head-to-head matchup, Henry rushed for 78 yards on nine carries with 11 personnel on the field (1RB, 1TE, 3WR). And over his past three games, Henry has logged 223 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per carry on 11 personnel run schemes.
With three wide receivers in the game, the Titans can use Henry against the Jaguars' nickel fronts, running both gap and zone concepts to get him loose at the second level of the defense. Expect a heavy volume day for Henry in a must-win game, which can also influence defenders to set up Titans quarterback Joshua Dobbs on defined play-action throws.
What the Detroit Lions need to do to win at the Packers
Game: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 12.5%
Clinching scenario: Win AND loss by SEA
Key to victory: Continue to create free access off the ball for wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Brown has 100 receptions this season, and almost half (45) have come on throws where he is moving before the snap. This meshes with what we see on tape, too. The Lions do an excellent job creating free access of the ball -- avoiding jam or reroute situations -- for Brown to get into the route stem quickly and without disruption. He's a key second-level target for quarterback Jared Goff, especially on money downs. So look for Detroit to use pre-snap movement here to get Brown away from press coverage or into stack/bunch sets to work inside the numbers against the Packers' coverage schemes.