Week 18 is the end of the line for 18 of the NFL's 32 teams. The Monday that follows usually draws an end to several coaching tenures, too. We've already seen the Broncos, Colts and Panthers fire their head coaches this season, and it would be no surprise if we saw several other jobs come open soon. There's no excitement or joy in seeing coaches get fired, but it's the business of the NFL.
Those openings create opportunities for new coaches to come in and revitalize organizations, so let's look at how appealing those various situations might be in 2023 and beyond. If you were a coach and could take any of the opportunities likely to come open, which team would you prefer? And which one would you want to avoid?
When I wrote this piece last year, I suggested the Vikings were the most appealing opportunity of the bunch. A year later, that looks pretty prescient. Just behind them in second were the Broncos, a prediction that should erase most of the prior goodwill. Here, we're just evaluating the pros and cons of each potential opening and what each situation would offer a coach, not projecting what a coach will do in that new role.
I'll rank them from worst to first, starting with an organization mired in a mess entirely of its own making:
Jump to a team:
Broncos | Cardinals
Colts | Commanders
Panthers | Saints | Texans
7. Indianapolis Colts
Pros: Core of young talent (pre-2022), high draft pick
Cons: Ownership interference, missing quarterback, core of young talent (now)
A year ago, the Colts looked like one of the league's most stable and steady opportunities. The 2021 season ended in ignominious fashion, but coach Frank Reich and general manager Chris Ballard had built Indy into a perennial playoff contender, even while swapping out quarterbacks each season in their efforts to replace Andrew Luck. Veteran Matt Ryan was a short-term option, but team owner Jim Irsay had been an extremely patient owner, and the Colts had an exciting core of young talent at other positions.
Then, this season happened. Irsay benched Ryan, fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, pushed Reich out the door and hired ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday as interim coach. The Colts already have cycled through Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles at QB, none of whom have hinted at being a viable solution in 2023. Their Week 1 starting quarterback isn't on the team, and it's fair to wonder whether a new coach will be the one who gets to make the final decision about who the franchise imports under center this offseason.
What has flown under the radar is how disappointing this season has been for Indy's core of stars. Running back Jonathan Taylor was ruled out for the season after suffering his second high ankle sprain in December, ending a disappointing third season. Shaquille Leonard, the team's top defender, played just 74 defensive snaps while dealing with a concussion and two back surgeries. Superstar guard Quenton Nelson had a disappointing season, and center Ryan Kelly hasn't been the possible franchise player we saw in 2020. Wideout Michael Pittman Jr., saddled with yet another rotating cast of quarterbacks, is averaging just 9.5 yards per reception.
For whatever concerns the Colts have at quarterback, the struggles and injury absences those players have dealt with should be the most concerning to a new coach. Indy does not typically spend much in free agency under Ballard, so it need its homegrown talent to develop and play at a high level. If the cupboard beyond quarterback isn't full and the team needs to dive into a deeper rebuild, this job gets even less appealing.
After 2022, any coach would worry about dealing with Irsay and getting the time he needs to execute that rebuild. Irsay had been one of the best owners from a coach's perspective over the prior few decades, allowing his coaches and executives to run the team to their best abilities. Former coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson each lasted longer in their roles than many expected after disappointing seasons in 2015 and 2016. Irsay has backed Ballard and publicly supported Reich until unexpectedly firing him in midseason.
Coaches aren't naive about where they might go to work. Reich is regarded as one of the most likable and well-respected coaches in the industry, and the sudden way his tenure ended will be a warning to coaches. There are only 32 NFL head-coaching jobs -- and Irsay hadn't been a problem before the end of the 2021 campaign -- but coaches with other options will be more hesitant to work here than they would have been a year ago.
Of course, when the Colts were winning and had Luck and Peyton Manning under center, Irsay was happy to stay out of the way. If you're a coach infatuated with one or two of the quarterbacks in April's draft, Indy will likely grab its new signal-caller with its first-round pick. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects the Colts to finish with the No. 5 overall selection in the draft, although they could rise to No. 4 if they lose to the Texans and the Broncos beat the Chargers on Sunday.
Sometimes, the best thing to do is to throw away what you learned from a disaster season and count on what you saw beforehand mattering most. Take the Jaguars, who looked to be a total mess after Urban Meyer ran through the building in 2021. New coach Doug Pederson righted the ship and got Trevor Lawrence back on track, and the Jags suddenly look like they're about to go from the league's worst team to winning the AFC South in 12 months.
If the Colts hire the right coach, draft the right quarterback and get their core of talent going again after a rough season, 2022 might go down as a blip of a season in which everything went wrong. Unlike the Jags, though, the Colts don't have their quarterback in place already. That added degree of difficulty makes this job less appealing than the Jacksonville one a year ago.
6. Denver Broncos
Pros: Young talent, possible solution at quarterback
Cons: Draft capital, division, quarterback on very expensive contract might be ... broken?
The $104 million question the Broncos have for any potential coach: Can you please fix Russell Wilson? Wilson's breathtaking fall from grace culminated on national television in a blowout loss to the Rams, which inspired scuffles on the Broncos' sideline and the end of the Nathaniel Hackett era in Denver. Hackett became the first coach to be fired before the end of his debut season with a team for on-field cause since Pete McCulley in 1978.
There's a universe in which the Broncos can get out of the Wilson contract this offseason, although they would almost surely have to attach something of value in a trade to get another team to absorb the $104 million guaranteed him over the next three seasons. In the Brock Osweiler trade in 2017, the Texans sent draft picks to the Browns to absorb $16 million in remaining salary, with one of those picks turning into franchise running back Nick Chubb.
Wilson would take more, and the Broncos are missing significant draft capital after sending future first-rounders to the Seahawks to acquire him. If the Broncos were willing to attach star cornerback Pat Surtain along with Wilson on a trade to get out from the contract, they could probably do a deal, but they would be left without a quarterback, draft capital or their most exciting young player. I don't think that opportunity is much more appealing.
So, if someone's taking this job, they know they have to get Wilson back on track. For some coaches, that will be a non-starter. For others, it will be an opportunity. As I wrote about earlier this month, Wilson was still great as recently as last December. Quarterbacks who have declined as suddenly as Wilson did this season have improved, although it's no guarantee. This will be a self-fulfilling prophecy: The coaches the Broncos will interview will tell them what they want to hear, so anyone who takes this job is going to think they can fix Wilson. Absent any alternatives, general manager George Paton and the front office will have no choice but to believe they can pull it off.
I'm more optimistic about Wilson's chances of being at least a competent quarterback in 2023 than most, so this job might be more appealing in my eyes than it would be to others. In addition to Wilson's woes, the Broncos have underperformed their point differential, struggled with significant injuries on both sides of the ball and at least partially restocked their draft cupboard by landing a first-round pick from the Dolphins for Bradley Chubb.
Ejiro Evero's defense has dropped from fourth to seventh in DVOA over the past couple of weeks, but the first-year defensive coordinator has had excellent work overshadowed by the disaster on the offensive side of the ball. Evero reportedly turned down the opportunity to be the interim coach, but the 41-year-old should have an opportunity to interview for the permanent job this offseason. If an incoming coach could convince Evero to stay on as defensive coordinator for at least one more year, it would be a huge boon to his chances of succeeding in 2023.
This is a very different sort of job than the other ones available this offseason. The Texans need someone to build them a house. The Broncos need to someone to put out a house that's on fire. The firefighter the Broncos hire and what they do to salvage Wilson will be one of the most fascinating stories of next season.
5. Arizona Cardinals
Pros: Quarterback, cap space, potential for football czar role
Cons: Lack of talent on roster, division, injury woes
It would have been tough to see this coming for the Cardinals last October, when Kliff Kingsbury's team started 7-0 and appeared to be on the upswing. It has gone just 8-18 since. While it was embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Rams in a wild-card game last season, the playoff appearance did enough to earn Kingsbury and general manager Steve Keim contract extensions through 2027, with a new deal for quarterback Kyler Murray following in July.
Now, everything seems uncertain. Murray tore his ACL in December and might not be ready for the start of next season. Kingsbury's offense was scuffling before Murray's injury, leading to speculation that his time could be up in Arizona. Keim is taking an indefinite leave of absence to address his health. ESPN reported last month that the relationship between Kingsbury, Keim, Murray and ownership has soured. Two of those parties aren't going anywhere. Kingsbury and Keim, despite their new deals, might not be back.
For a coach seeking a powerful role, this could be an opportunity. Most of the other teams on this list already have a general manager in place or are likely to hire both a new coach and general manager. The Cardinals might be the only opportunity to get two jobs in one and, as Bill Parcells once put it, be able to shop for the groceries and cook the dinner. That sort of opportunity could appeal to experienced coaches who want that power to come back to the league.
The Cardinals might need to make that sort of offer to land an accomplished coach, because what's left from their roster is not particularly appealing. Keim's drafting has left much to be desired over the past half-decade, missing on picks and using selections on players who don't play premium positions. There might not be a single player who projects to be an above-average starter from Arizona's past three drafts. The only player on the roster left from the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts is safety Budda Baker.
Unlike the other teams on this list, the Cardinals offer a young quarterback entering the prime of his career. Unfortunately for the next coach, though, Murray's knee injury raises uncertainty about what happens next. He might be on the PUP list to start next season, and for a quarterback who depends so heavily on his legs, any sort of explosiveness-sapping knee injury could be devastating. The franchise is locked into Murray for years to come, so a new coach would have no choice but to count on him to be the focal point of the offense.
There's little flexibility to add players around Murray. Wideout Marquise Brown, whom the team traded a first-round pick to acquire last offseason, is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is due a significant raise. Four of the team's five starting offensive linemen to open the season will be free agents. Legendary pass-rusher J.J. Watt, Arizona's only player to top six sacks this season, has announced his retirement. Defensive lineman Zach Allen, who has had a breakout year next to Watt up front, is about to hit free agency.
The Cardinals need to start over. Keim's philosophy of spending money and valuable draft picks on the league's least important positions while trying to plug holes with veteran trades and free agency has left them too far away from contending. Arizona already is starting behind the eight ball because of Murray's injury. Taking a season to clean out the cap while building up their infrastructure on either side of the line of scrimmage would be a thoughtful way to approach their long-term future, even if things get worse in the short term.
The last time the Cardinals were truly bad before this was 2018, and ownership showed it had little patience for a rebuild. The Cardinals fired Steve Wilks after one season and gave up on first-round pick Josh Rosen, with Keim then using the No. 1 overall pick to draft Murray. Keim was right to take a second swing on a quarterback, but that was his only successful draft over the past seven years. Any coach coming in here would be worried about being one and done if the Cardinals crater again.
If Murray is expected to miss significant time, it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Cardinals remain competitive. The Rams will be healthier, if only by sheer chance. The 49ers have been one of the league's best teams despite losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury in Week 2. The Seahawks are about to add a top-five pick to their roster and just had a great draft. That 7-0 start from 2021 feels like it might as well have been a decade ago. Murray alone makes this job intriguing, but there's a lot to worry about here.
4. Washington Commanders
Pros: Young talent, ownership uncertainty
Cons: Quarterback, division, ownership uncertainty
Things have fallen apart since the bye for coach Ron Rivera and the Commanders. In Week 13, a 7-5 Commanders team had the ball on New York's side of the field in overtime, needing a field goal to carve out a likely trip to the postseason against its most direct rival via a wild-card spot. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke & Co. stalled out, the two teams tied, and the Giants won the ensuing rematch after the bye.
Rivera then turned to deposed Week 1 starter Carson Wentz late in a blowout loss to the 49ers, and after being fooled by Wentz's performance in garbage time, Rivera restored him into a starting role for the must-win home game against the Browns. Wentz went 16-of-28 for 143 yards with three interceptions in a 24-10 loss. After the game, Rivera was surprised to hear the Commanders could be eliminated from postseason contention with a Packers win over the Vikings, with Washington officially knocked out of the playoffs later that night.
It would be embarrassing for most organizations if their coach didn't know the possible playoff permutations for his team across the final two weeks of a season, but these are the Commanders. Rivera is thoughtful and professional, qualities rarely associated with this organization off the football field. The former Panthers coach should have known what the downside for the Commanders looked like with a loss -- or had a better poker face after facing the question -- but that shouldn't be a fireable offense.
On the other hand, it's reasonable to point at the handling of the Wentz fiasco and wonder whether Rivera returns. He publicly announced last offseason there was no price too expensive to pay for a quarterback, then sent meaningful draft assets to a Colts team that had all but publicly announced it was desperate to trade away Wentz. The Commanders paid Wentz, who had run his way out of two organizations in two seasons, $28 million for the 2022 season.
Wentz then continued to struggle as he began the year as Washington's starter, posting a 31.7 QBR over the first six weeks of the season. Only Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield were worse. The Commanders improved after Wentz was sidelined by a finger injury, with Heinicke entering the lineup and posting a 45.2 QBR between Weeks 7 and 16. The team's starter for most of 2021, Heinicke helped push the Commanders toward the postseason, even if he might not deserve all of the credit for their 5-3-1 mark after he took over under center.
Rivera then went back to Wentz down multiple scores against the 49ers, and that was enough to earn Wentz the starting gig in the most important game of the season. Heinicke had struggled against the 49ers, and he had turned the ball over twice in the loss to the Giants, but what about Wentz's past two seasons suggested he was the better option? What about his play during the game led Rivera to stick with Wentz? The Commanders made a bad decision this offseason and, perhaps out of desperation, doubled down on that choice in Week 17. It ended their season.
Fans want to believe coaches make thoughtful decisions with information outsiders don't have, that they have unique insight into the psyche of players and what wins football games. When it comes to two very public and visible areas of the organization, it doesn't seem like Rivera had a great handle. He went back to Wentz with little reason to believe the quarterback would be competent and then didn't know what the repercussions might have been with a loss. Rivera knows more about football than you or I ever will, but anyone can learn playoff probabilities or pick a quarterback on vibes.
Team owner Daniel Snyder rarely has been patient with his coaches. None of his hires have survived three consecutive losing seasons, and while Rivera did advance to the postseason in one of those years, the Commanders would need to pull off a significant upset with Sam Howell at quarterback Sunday to avoid their third consecutive seven-win campaign. Rivera's teams have been more mediocre than bad, which could earn him a fourth season at the helm, but former coach Jay Gruden earned such an opportunity and was fired after an 0-5 start the following season. Snyder might not want to make the same mistake again.
At the same time, Snyder might not want to make any sort of decision for the future of the organization. Multiple reports have suggested Snyder is preparing to sell some or all of his stake in the team, a process that can stretch on for years and complicate the year-to-year processes of the organization. Existing ownership probably wouldn't want to create more liabilities by firing Rivera and hiring a new coach. New ownership typically prefers to hire its own coach, which would make this job less appealing to coaches until any transaction officially occurs.
In the big picture, of course, virtually any ownership group would project to be preferable to the current regime. Commanders fans are desperate for change and a fresh start, both on and off the field, which should appeal to coaches. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the roster beyond the issues at quarterback, although edge rusher Chase Young's lost season while recovering from a torn ACL has to be concerning. This is the least likely job to come open of this group, and it would be a more appealing opportunity next offseason than it is now.
3. Houston Texans
Pros: Draft capital
Cons: Lack of young talent, erratic ownership
Most teams in position to finish with the No. 1 overall pick are better than their record, and the same is true for Lovie Smith's Texans. While they were blown out by the Jags last week in Houston, the 2-13-1 Texans have been more competitive than the final scores might indicate. They battled gamely against the Eagles, Cowboys and Chiefs, holding fourth-quarter leads against the latter two. They have the point differential of a 4.4-win team and actually rank ahead of the rival Colts in DVOA.
What the Texans don't have is an offense. They struggled all season after they gave Davis Mills a second season as a starter. The move to Kyle Allen only made them miss Mills, whose hot stretch to end the season a year ago looks more like a schedule-influenced aberration than a sign he has QB1 potential. The absence of rookie second-round pick John Metchie has hurt. Houston actually has looked better in stretches without starting wideouts Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, which raises some questions about the league's 31st-ranked offense.
There's good news on this front. Unless the Texans win and the Bears lose in Week 18, Houston will land the top pick in the 2023 draft, giving general manager Nick Caserio his pick of this class' top quarterbacks. Want to land Bryce Young? Will Levis? Go off the board? Having a clear path toward a franchise signal-caller on a rookie deal is the most important thing for any rebuilding roster, and the Texans are close to landing that opportunity. Coaches who love a specific college passer will like this job for that reason alone.
The Texans also have first- and third-round picks coming from the Browns as the latest return from the Deshaun Watson trade, with the former projected to land as the 12th pick. The extra first-rounder should allow them to land a building block along the defensive line, preferably at edge rusher, where veteran Jerry Hughes carried the pass rush for the first half of the season before fading. Hughes had eight sacks through nine games but has none since. Landing someone who can be this team's next great pass-rusher alongside that quarterback would be a dream draft.
An even more ideal scenario might include Caserio and a new coach trading down, given how bereft the cupboard was when the Texans sold out to try to win a Super Bowl in the final days of the Bill O'Brien era. Caserio's strategy of amassing veterans on short-term deals to fill out dozens of roster spots has made the Texans more competitive, but there's just too much missing elsewhere on the roster. The only top-100 picks left from the O'Brien era are tight end Jordan Akins, defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard and offensive tackle Tytus Howard, none of whom have emerged as impact contributors.
With a full complement of draft picks, Caserio finally made strides in shoring up that core last April. Some of the early returns are exciting: Derek Stingley Jr. looks like he'll be an excellent cornerback, safety Jalen Pitre has been a playmaker, and Dameon Pierce won the running back job in camp and never looked back. The Texans are still waiting to see what happens with Metchie, who has leukemia, and guard Kenyon Green -- the No. 15 overall pick in last April's draft -- has had a rough rookie season, but there are reasons to be optimistic about what the Texans are starting to build.
A bigger concern for a new coach might be trusting that ownership has the patience to see through a long-term vision for the organization. Since Cal McNair took over for his father in 2018, the Texans have fired general manager Brian Gaine after one season, given O'Brien a larger role in personnel, let O'Brien make a series of disastrous moves and then fired him after an 0-4 start in 2020. The Texans hired David Culley, fired him after one year, searched for a replacement and landed on Smith, who had been the team's defensive coordinator. Jack Easterby, the former Patriots chaplain who appeared to carve out a larger role for himself in Houston, had a vaguely powerful role within the organization before leaving in October.
The Texans have interviewed coaches with limited experience or veterans who aren't close to another NFL opportunity these past two years, in part because the job hasn't been very appealing. Some of that is talent, but coaches with options don't want to tie themselves to an erratic, unconvincing ownership group. When the 49ers cycled through Jim Harbaugh, Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly in consecutive years, they had to give Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch six-year deals to get a deal done. Even that might not be enough to lure premium coaches for Houston this cycle.
2. New Orleans Saints
Pros: Division, young building blocks
Cons: Locked into declining core by cap mismanagement, missing draft capital
I wrote at length last month about the Saints and why they're in a bind of their own making, owing almost entirely to an emphasis on the short term over the long term. They have squeezed future salary caps to create immediate space, traded away future picks to plug holes or get a player on their present roster and left their problems to be dealt with another day.
That made sense when they had Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, but not quite as much when a team without coach Sean Payton was running out Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston under center. If the Saints are going to start over at quarterback and let go of former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen after one season at the helm as head coach, it's long past time for them to rip off the Band-Aids and enter a full rebuild. Even a healthy version of this team with a competent quarterback such as Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater doesn't project to compete with the best teams in the NFC in 2023 or beyond.
Hiring a coach to take over that rebuild would be a tricky proposition, especially if Allen turns out to be one and done. Whomever takes the job would need to have the security of a long deal and promises that ownership will let them see the rebuild through. The Saints would need two years to just get in reasonable cap shape, let alone start amassing the sort of roster they would need to be a meaningful contender. General manager Mickey Loomis & Co. have a few building blocks -- cornerback Marshon Lattimore, wideout Chris Olave and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk -- but there are so many players in meaningful spots on this roster who wouldn't be on the team by 2024 or 2025 in a rebuild. With New Orleans' 2023 first-round pick going to the Eagles, the most valuable asset within its organization is landing in Philadelphia, delaying a rebuild even further.
The second-most-valuable asset the Saints have might be the rights to Payton, which are the X factor in analyzing this position. For one, rumors have hinted they might try to bring their longtime coach back into the organization. From the investigation into the Dolphins and team owner Stephen Ross, we know Miami wanted to hire Payton to work with Tom Brady. If the Saints convince Payton to return and land Brady in free agency, all of the above is moot. They will be all-in with a 46-year-old quarterback, as they should.
If Payton does want to leave for greener pastures, the Saints would be in position to demand a significant return, in line with what teams typically pay for franchise players entering the prime of their careers. Those picks would restock the cupboard and make this job much more appealing, but if they choose to let their retired coach leave for nominal compensation or Payton stays retired, they don't have the talent to be great or the flexibility to quickly retool.
1. Carolina Panthers
Pros: Young talent, division
Cons: Missing a viable quarterback
Few teams fire their coach at midseason and somehow manage to control their playoff destiny with two games to go. The Panthers found themselves in that position, having fired Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start in October before righting the ship under interim coach Steve Wilks. They held a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter in a must-win game over the Buccaneers last week, but a pair of Mike Evans touchdowns and a Sam Darnold fumble steered the division to the Bucs.
The first decision for the Panthers now is to determine whether Wilks deserves the permanent job. It would be difficult to argue against him earning an interview for the opportunity given what he has done, but interim coaches typically don't live up to their interim results after being given the full-time job. Carolina doesn't have a single victory over a team with a winning record. The NFC South was a mess, and even if it had won the division, it wasn't in position to make a significant run in the postseason.
The division might make this job more appealing. The Buccaneers are likely to lose Tom Brady this offseason, don't have a promising replacement on the roster and are in a sticky cap situation. The Saints are in the league's worst cap situation and don't have a first-round pick. The Falcons are rebuilding and will finally be out of their own cap mess, but they don't have as talented a roster as the Panthers. Carolina could be entering a window in which it would be the best team in the South.
That team just needs a quarterback. After cycling through Darnold, Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker this season, the Panthers will surely start over in 2023. Rookie Matt Corral is on the roster after general manager Scott Fitterer traded up for him in the third round of last April's draft, but it would be naive for the team to assume he will be their unquestioned starter, especially after missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury.
If some combination of quarterback and coach wants to link up this offseason to go to a new team together, Carolina is the obvious landing spot. The most heavily rumored duo of Brady and Sean Payton would be an easy fit, but the Saints would surely prefer to see their longtime coach head outside the NFC South. A more realistic option might be Shane Steichen and Gardner Minshew from Philadelphia or DeMeco Ryans and Jimmy Garoppolo from San Francisco.
The Panthers don't have much cap room after a series of restructures, but they likely will go down the Saints' path of creating short-term space around a promising young core. It's one thing to restructure wideout Michael Thomas after nearly two years out of football and another to trust that receiver DJ Moore, offensive tackle Taylor Moton and linebacker Shaq Thompson will be significant contributors for the next several seasons. A new deal for star edge rusher Brian Burns will also create cap space.
The closest comparable for where the Panthers stand might be with last year's Broncos. Denver was pushing toward .500, had young talent on both sides of the ball and believed the only thing standing between it and contention was a franchise quarterback. Of course, a year later, the Broncos' dreams are in shambles. The Panthers seem similarly appealing now and don't have the same bear of a division weighing down their chances of making a deep playoff run in the years to come, but they still have to hire the two most important people in any organization.