nAfter Christmas weekend's NFL games, there are four divisional races left in some level of doubt. The Cowboys' dramatic victory in Dallas kept the Eagles from clinching the NFC East for another week, but Nick Sirianni's team is still the heavy favorite to claim its first division title since 2019. The other three races are still in some meaningful jeopardy, and two could come down to division-deciding tilts in Week 18.
Today, I'll break down those four races, what happened with them in Week 16 and where they stand with two weeks to go in the season. With the help of the playoff projections from ESPN's Football Power Index, let's start with the NFC East, where an offensive shootout kept things alive for at least one more week ...
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NFC East | AFC South
AFC North | NFC South
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles' chances: 98.1%
Dallas Cowboys' chances: 1.9%
The NFC East is still a race because of three bouncing footballs. In a wildly entertaining 40-34 slugfest Saturday between the Cowboys and Eagles, the difference between winning and losing sure looked like three fumbles, each of which was recovered by the home team. Here's how they swung:
With a seven-point lead in the third quarter, Philadelphia quarterback Gardner Minshew and running back Boston Scott fumbled an exchange, which the Cowboys recovered on the Eagles' 37-yard line. They turned the short field into a five-play touchdown drive.
After an Eagles touchdown restored the seven-point lead, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was strip-sacked at midfield. The Cowboys recovered the ball on their own 38-yard line, preventing the Eagles from getting a short field. After another sack, they converted one of the key plays of the game by picking up a third-and-30 with a throw to T.Y. Hilton, scoring another touchdown four plays later.
The Eagles took over with 2:24 left in the game down three points, but running back Miles Sanders fumbled for a second consecutive week. The Cowboys recovered on the Philadelphia 21-yard line, allowing them to take time off the clock. We'll get to their decision to kick a field goal in a moment, but in doing so, they went up six points.
Those three recoveries produced 10 points for the Cowboys and denied the Eagles a possession that would typically generate about 3.1 points. If the Eagles recover even one of these three fumbles and nothing else changes, their chances of winning increase dramatically. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but once those fumbles hit the ground, who recovers them is random.
If you're an Eagles fan, this might evoke memories of the other game Philadelphia lost this season. When the Eagles lost to the Commanders in November, Washington recovered four of the game's five fumbles. The Eagles have recovered 12.5% of the fumbles in their two losses but 60% of the fumbles across their 13 victories. I'm not sure "fall on all the fumbles" is a blueprint opposing teams can copy, but it has been the difference in these two NFC East victories.
The Cowboys were also able to exploit two key injuries suffered by Philly during the game. Slot cornerback Avonte Maddox suffered a toe injury while sacking Prescott on a flea-flicker in the second quarter and did not return. The Cowboys proceeded to pick apart the Eagles in the slot afterward with CeeDee Lamb, who had nine catches for 113 yards out of the slot and just one catch for 7 yards split out wide. The Eagles have allowed a league-best 25.6 QBR with Maddox on the field, a mark that rises to 50.3 without the nickelback.
And then -- just days after being named to his fourth Pro Bowl -- Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson left in the fourth quarter with a groin injury and did not return. Minshew threw an interception on the next play, and while that didn't happen because the star tackle was on the sideline, the play at the end of the game was impacted by his absence. Cowboys edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. was able to push backup right tackle Jack Driscoll into Minshew's feet, taking away a lane for the quarterback to step up and forcing a desperate incomplete pass into the end zone to close out the game.
The Eagles have been one of the healthiest teams in football for most of the season, but they felt the absence of those two key contributors. They also were without MVP candidate Jalen Hurts, who was sidelined by a right shoulder sprain. If the Eagles had won and clinched the division and the top seed in the conference, Hurts could have sat out the rest of the season (and then the resulting playoff bye week), giving the star quarterback a month of rest to recover.
Instead, Hurts may now need to return before the end of the season. If he comes back next week and helps the Eagles top the Saints, he would be able to rest in Week 18 and during the wild-card round. The Eagles might instead prefer to let Hurts sit one more week and give him a chance to win the division at home in Week 18 against the Giants. If the Eagles can't pull out a victory in either of those two games, they might be stuck playing in the wild-card round and traveling to play these same Cowboys again in the postseason.
For the Cowboys to win the East, they'll need to win out and have the Eagles lose out. If that happens, The Upshot's model suggests that Dallas would have a 42% chance of landing the top seed in the NFC. They would also need a loss from both the 49ers and Vikings over the final two weeks of the season, as the Cowboys would win a four-way tiebreaker at 13-4.
Earning a first-round bye would give the Cowboys a clearer path to the Super Bowl and give coach Mike McCarthy fewer chances to make mistakes while managing late-game situations. McCarthy has made a habit of costing his team chances to advance in the postseason with curious choices on fourth down and late in contests, and he combined them both in the fourth quarter of the win Saturday.
With 1:44 left to go in the game and a three-point lead, the Cowboys faced a fourth-and-goal from the Eagles' 3-yard line. McCarthy sent his offense out to try to produce an offside penalty from the Eagles, which suggests that he might have gone for it from the 1.5-yard line if Philadelphia had jumped. Instead, the Eagles stayed put, and after a delay of game penalty, McCarthy sent out Brett Maher to put the Cowboys up six.
On the surface, you can understand the benefits of going up six instead of three. With a three-point lead, you can give up the lead and head to overtime if the other team makes a field goal. Instead, by going up six, you force the opposing team to drive the length of the field for a touchdown, a much more difficult proposition.
The difference is what happens when teams face that sort of deficit. Trailing by three on the final drive of the game, teams almost always try to get in field goal range and settle for a kick to force overtime. Trailing by six, teams have no choice but to get extremely aggressive and play for a victory in regulation, and defenses are often happy to cede yards to allow those offenses to get in range of a score to avoid the big play. And of course, if those teams do score a touchdown, they win the game in regulation as opposed to a trip to overtime, where they still have something close to only a 50-50 chance of victory. This happens frequently enough that kicking the field goal to go up six has historically hurt your team's chances of winning. Per Ben Baldwin's model, the Cowboys actually cost themselves 3.5% win expectancy by attempting the field goal, as opposed to trying for a touchdown -- let alone succeeding -- even from the 3-yard line.
Of course, that's almost what happened. Instead of ending the game with a TD or forcing the Eagles to march from inside their own 5-yard line to kick a field goal, the Cowboys played prevent coverage and allowed Philadelphia to drive 56 yards in 67 seconds. The Eagles stalled out from there, and the Cowboys deserve credit for coming up with a stop when the game was on the line, but the way the endgame played out was entirely predictable.
If you want to argue that the Cowboys made the right decision because they won the game, you're entitled to that opinion. Winning while making subpar choices is only going to reward those incorrect decisions and encourage McCarthy to make those same decisions again in the postseason, when they've backfired in the past and sent his team home. It worked Saturday, but next time, the Cowboys may not be so lucky.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars' chances: 75.0%
Tennessee Titans' chances: 25.0%
Five weeks ago, after beating the Packers, the Titans were 7-3 and held a 93.1% chance of winning the AFC South for the third consecutive season. The 3-7 Jaguars didn't appear to be on anybody's radar. Well, a lot has changed. The Jags, whom I wrote about at length a few days ago, have won four out of five, including a comprehensive victory over the flailing Jets on Thursday. The Titans, who seemed to survive whatever had gotten in their way over the previous 2½ seasons, have lost five straight.
Three of those defeats have come in one-score games, where the Titans were previously 5-2 in 2022 and a combined 18-6 since the start of 2020. For 2½ years, it felt as if the Titans were simply wizards of the close game, that they somehow inevitably managed to find a way to come up with victories in the fourth quarter. The rules we hold for other teams didn't seem to matter to Mike Vrabel's squad.
And now, suddenly, they do. At the midway point of the season, I wrote about how the Titans had been one of the league's most fortunate teams by the measures we typically use to identify unsustainable ways of winning football games. At that point, the Titans were 6-3.
Instead, the formula which had been sustaining the Titans through the first half of the season fell apart. An offense that had been dismal outside of the red zone and unstoppable inside the 20-yard line hasn't kept up. After converting a league-best 76.2% of their red zone trips through Week 10, the Titans have scored on only 58.8% of their attempts since, which is 14th in the league. (They actually converted their lone trip inside the 20 against the Texans on Saturday.)
The Titans had been one of the league's worst teams on offense outside of the 20, ranking 29th in offensive EPA per play when not in the red zone. They've improved slightly, but only to 26th. As a result, the Titans are 22nd in points per drive over the past six weeks, just ahead of the likes of the Broncos and Colts. The only time the offense has topped 16 points during this five-game losing streak is Week 14, when they scored a garbage-time touchdown while trailing the Jaguars by 22 points in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, a defense that was struggling on early downs but allowing teams to convert only a league-low 27.9% of the time on third and fourth down has regressed back toward the mean. The Titans have allowed opposing offenses to convert just under 42% of the time on third and fourth down over the past six games, a mark that was even higher before Davis Mills and the Texans went 5-for-15 on Saturday. This is just over league average, as the NFL as a whole has converted about 40% of the time on third and fourth down since the start of Week 11.
The schedule has also gotten tougher, though. When the Titans won seven of eight games between Week 3 and Week 11, all seven of their wins came against teams that don't currently have a winning record. Their one game against a team with a winning record today during that stretch was a matchup with the Chiefs, a game the Titans lost in overtime. Meanwhile, during Tennessee's 0-2 start to the season and the current five-game losing streak, the Titans faced five teams with winning records. Simply put, when the Titans have faced playoff-caliber competition this season, they have lost. And when they've been able to go up against the league's lesser lights, they've won.
Of course, the Titans didn't just turn into a pumpkin overnight. Vrabel's team has been decimated by injuries, most notably to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who might not be able to return after undergoing surgery on a high ankle sprain. The Titans lost the first four games in this losing streak with Tannehill in the mix, though a dozen players who would have expected to be Week 1 starters for Tennessee were out of the lineup or limited to part-time duty by injuries. Many, like star defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, are playing at well below 100 percent, too.
Even that undersells the situation for the Titans. On Saturday, they had to give regular snaps to players who weren't even on the roster in Week 1 (Lonnie Johnson Jr., Tarell Basham, Andrew Adams and Le'Raven Clark). Former undrafted free agents who were expected to be practice squadders or special teams contributors -- Corey Levin, Jordan Roos, Tre Avery and Jack Gibbens -- were forced into significant roles on offense or defense. Outside of maybe the Rams and Saints, it's difficult to think of a team more thoroughly cleaned out by injuries this season than Tennessee.
Uniquely, the Jags and Titans now find themselves in a race where Week 17 does not matter. Regardless of how the results play out in the Jaguars-Texans and Titans-Cowboys games this upcoming weekend, Jaguars-Titans in Week 18 is a play-in game for the divisional title. The Titans also can't make the playoffs if they lose to the Jags in the season closer, so they have every reason to rest Simmons, Derrick Henry and other stars against the Cowboys before a season-deciding tilt in Jacksonville.
The surging Jaguars have more of a reason to play Trevor Lawrence and their stars in Week 17, though. While it would be unlikely, the Jaguars could still advance to the postseason if they win against the Texans and lose to the Titans the following week. It would require a lot of help. The Dolphins would need to lose out; the Jets would need to lose to the Seahawks; the Bills would have to beat the Patriots; and the Steelers would need to lose one of their two final contests. For Doug Pederson's team, the simplest way to get in is sweeping the Titans for the first time since 2005.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals' chances: 63.6%
Baltimore Ravens' chances: 36.4%
The Bengals made a play in the nick of time. At the end of a game where it looked as if they were about to blow a 22-0 lead in embarrassing fashion to the Patriots, safety Vonn Bell made one of the plays of the season. With the Patriots set up on the Cincinnati 5-yard line on first-and-goal down 22-18 with just over a minute to go, New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson was pushed backward and stripped of the football. Just two minutes after Ja'Marr Chase's fumble had set the Patriots up with great field position, Stevenson's fumble handed the ball back to Cincinnati. One final Patriots drive was futile, and the Bengals came out of New England with a narrow victory.
It was another hard-fought victory in one of the most impressive stretches we've seen from any team this season. Facing the toughest part of their schedule, the Bengals have won seven straight contests. Saturday's victory was the fourth by seven or fewer points, but it was also the only one of that bunch where the Bengals were underdogs in the final few minutes.
When they've gotten hot, the Bengals have generally won games by avoiding takeaways. During their meteoric rise from the middle of the pack to the Super Bowl last season, the Bengals turned the ball over just twice in an eight-game span, going 6-2 over that stretch. (One of those losses was a Week 18 game when they were resting quarterback Joe Burrow and many of their other stars.) And unsurprisingly, we saw the same habit this season. The Bengals turned the ball over 10 times during their indifferent 4-4 start to the season. Over the first six games of their winning streak, they tightened things up on offense, turning it over just four times. Buoyed by a four-turnover half against the Buccaneers last week, the Bengals had posted a plus-five turnover differential over that six-game span.
Against the Patriots, though, Cincinnati turned the ball over three times -- and that wasn't even the full extent of its sloppiness. One of Burrow's two interceptions was a pick-six, as the Patriots scored a defensive touchdown for the third time in three weeks. Evan McPherson missed two extra points and a 43-yard field goal in one of his worst performances as a pro. The Bengals were given a gift on one of the missed extra points by an unnecessary roughness call, but running back Samaje Perine was stuffed from the 1-yard line on the ensuing two-point try.
And yet, all of that didn't matter. The Patriots helped out by missing two extra points and a 2-point conversion attempt of their own, and the Bengals might have lost before the last-minute fumble, but it's telling that Cincinnati can have an imperfect day and still manage to win. Burrow & Co. dominated during the first half, marching down the field and racking up 45 or more yards on each of their first five possessions. The Bengals needed to be close to perfect for two months to make it to the Super Bowl last season. Now, even when they have a sloppy day, they can still be good enough to win.
However, things don't get much easier in the weeks to come. The Bengals finish with the toughest pair of matchups in football over the final two weeks, as they'll host the top-seeded Bills before a tilt against the Ravens in Week 18. If they win both games, the Bengals will win the AFC North, and they would even claim the top seed in the AFC if the Chiefs slip up against either the Broncos or Raiders.
The Ravens, meanwhile, need to at least match Cincinnati's performance in Week 17 and then beat the Bengals on the road in Week 18 to take the division. The Ravens beat Cincinnati all the way back in October with a last-second field goal from Justin Tucker on a day when they ran for 155 yards on 28 carries. The Bengals rank 16th in rush defense DVOA, so that's a relative weakness for a team that's above average or better in most other efficiency metrics.
That version of the Ravens had Lamar Jackson, though, and it's unclear when the past MVP QB will be able to return to the lineup. Jackson has yet to practice after suffering a knee injury in the Week 13 win over the Broncos. Tyler Huntley has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 3.1 yards per carry since taking over for Jackson, with the Ravens scoring a total of three touchdowns across the better part of four games. It's difficult to imagine them competing against the Bengals and that offense with Huntley in the fold.
The injury leaves John Harbaugh and the Baltimore organization in a difficult bind. The decision whether to play Jackson in Week 18 might be made for the team, either by Jackson being unable to suit up or by the division being decided in Week 17. The Ravens clinched a playoff berth by beating the Falcons on Saturday, so the only reason to rush Jackson back from his injury would be to improve their seeding and possibly host a home game in the postseason.
Baltimore would be the 3-seed if it wins the AFC North, in which case it would most likely get a home game against the Chargers. If the Ravens don't win the division, they would be favored to end up as the fifth or sixth seed in the conference. There's a big difference between those two spots; the fifth seed will face the AFC South winner in the opening round, while the sixth seed would likely end up traveling to face these very Bengals during wild-card weekend.
As tempting as it might be to win the division, the Ravens don't have much hope of making a serious postseason run without Jackson. Getting him healthy for the playoffs has to be Baltimore's top priority.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' chances: 67.4%
Carolina Panthers' chances: 30.6%
New Orleans Saints' chances: 2.0%
The NFC South, by comparison to the league's other divisions, is total chaos. About all we know is that the 5-10 Falcons have been eliminated. We were close to a three-way tie atop the division at 6-9, but Tampa Bay capitalized on a Cardinals fumble to tie the game Sunday night before a Ryan Succop field goal in overtime gave the Bucs a 19-16 victory -- giving Tampa the inside track on the South.
This was another game where quarterback Tom Brady and the rest of the offensive personnel spent drive after drive sternly walking to the sideline before finally getting it right in the fourth quarter. The Bucs are 4-6 over their past 10 games, and three of those victories -- over the Rams, Saints and Cardinals -- have required fourth-quarter comebacks. Tampa Bay has been hanging on for dear life for three months.
If the Buccaneers were shipwrecked on a deserted island, this should be about the point when they stop waiting for a rescue plane and start building some shelter. All year, we've been waiting for that game or that stretch where everything clicks into place and Brady stops looking as if he has never played a game with receiver Mike Evans before. First, it was about getting all of Brady's playmakers back healthy. Then it was about swapping out Leonard Fournette for Rachaad White at running back. Maybe the Bucs needed to coax tight end Rob Gronkowski out of retirement.
It's not happening. The Buccaneers have had nearly a full season to fix their offensive inconsistency and have shown that they either don't have schematic fixes or can't implement those fixes behind an injury-riddled offensive line. Byron Leftwich's offense is the league's sixth-worst by EPA per play through the first three quarters before improving to 11th in the fourth quarter.
Months ago, I argued that the Buccaneers should be more aggressive throwing the ball on early downs, but that hasn't done the trick either. Across the entire season, the Buccaneers have the league's second-highest pass rate on early downs in neutral game scripts. Despite running the ball less often in those spots than any other team in the league besides the Chiefs, Tampa Bay is the third-worst attack in football on early downs by EPA per rush attempt.
Brady has been bad against pressure for years, but the solution has always been for the league's fastest-processing passer to get the ball out quickly behind an excellent offensive line. This season, with the line missing multiple starters and the offense rarely operating on the same page, Brady has basically been useless when under siege. He's posting a 6.5 QBR when under pressure, ahead of only Carson Wentz, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. He is still being pressured a league-low 18.5% of the time, but that mark is up a tick from 17.0% between 2020 and 2021.
The more unfortunate news for the Buccaneers is that even if they do win the NFC South, they're locked into the fourth seed in the conference. With two games to go, the fifth seed in the NFC is guaranteed to be the second-best team in the East, which will be either the Cowboys or the Eagles. Those teams rank first and eighth, respectively, in pressure rate. This version of the Buccaneers does not match up well with either opponent.
On the other hand, the Bucs did beat the Cowboys comprehensively in their Week 1 opener, and they sent the Eagles packing in the wild-card round last season. Of course, that was an Eagles team with a less impressive version of Hurts, and the Cowboys were forced to turn to Cooper Rush after Prescott broke a finger halfway through the game. Tampa Bay will count on the greatest quarterback in NFL history figuring things out in January, but after watching the Bucs week after week, I'm not sure what's going to change besides the stakes.
With two games to go, the Bucs' path is simple. They win the NFC South and advance to the postseason with a Panthers loss, either against these Buccaneers in Week 17 or the Saints in Week 18. If the Panthers win out, Brady will miss the postseason for the first time in a healthy season since 2002.
I'm not sure anybody expected the Panthers to control their own playoff destiny after starting 1-4 and firing coach Matt Rhule, but they've kicked into gear since quarterback Sam Darnold returned to the lineup in Week 12. Darnold has won three of his four starts and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt without turning the football over once. It has been reminiscent of Darnold's 3-0 start to the 2021 season, when it briefly looked as if the Panthers had found their quarterback before the injury to running back Christian McCaffrey shut the offense off.
Again, Darnold is being buoyed by a great rushing attack. This time, though, it's coming with McCaffrey in San Francisco. CMC is doing well with the 49ers, but the Panthers have been better running the football after replacing the highest-paid back in football with a trio of low-cost options in D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear.
Since Week 7, when the Panthers won their first game under interim coach Steve Wilks by dismantling the Buccaneers, the running game has been the focal point of the offense. The Panthers have generated 2.1 wins with their ground game over that stretch, trailing only the Ravens. Their rushing attack is fourth in the league in EPA per designed run, behind only the Eagles, Cowboys and Ravens. And they rank in the top 10 in yards both before and after contact.
While cycling through three starting quarterbacks in Darnold, Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker over the past 10 weeks, the Panthers rank 10th in points per drive. To do that with a group of running backs making a fraction of what their incumbent made suggests that the Panthers are doing a really good job of scheming up their run plays and/or that there are more qualified running backs around the league than there are opportunities. Foreman, who looked good with Tennessee and with Carolina over the past two seasons, deserves to start somewhere in 2023.
The Panthers delivered their most resounding victory of the season by running all over the Lions on Saturday, but in the process, they might have lost a critical contributor. I think second-year cornerback Jaycee Horn was a Pro Bowl snub after excelling for Carolina this season, but he fractured his wrist in the fourth quarter of the victory. He's now expected to miss the rest of the season, which would cost Wilks his best corner. The Panthers did beat the Bucs without Horn in the lineup earlier this season, but I think they would be better off had the 2021 first-rounder been in the mix for the upcoming rematch in Week 17.
For Carolina fans, a playoff race in December might feel like a pleasantly unexpected surprise after writing off the season in early October. For the principals, there's a lot to gain. Wilks, whose first head-coaching job ended in disastrous fashion after one season with the Cardinals, already has a credible claim on the permanent job. A division title would make his case close to undeniable. And a late-season surge would raise Darnold's chances of seeing meaningful work again in 2023. The Panthers are likely to pursue a long-term QB solution this offseason, but if Darnold leads Carolina to an NFC South crown, he might be in line to serve as the bridge starter or a high-priority backup for a team with quarterback concerns. Darnold unquestionably has his flaws, but it's worth noting that two teams have now tried to replace him, and both the Jets and Panthers landed on worse options.
The 6-9 Saints kept their playoff hopes alive with a 17-10 win over the Browns in frigid conditions Saturday afternoon. Nobody needed help staying cold in Cleveland this weekend, but the Saints curiously chose to keep Taysom Hill on ice for most of the first half. He didn't get his first touch until there was 3:24 left in the second quarter, but once he got involved, the Saints started to score. Hill set up a field goal before halftime and scored the tying touchdown after the break, with the Saints converting a short field after a Deshaun Watson interception for the game winner in the third quarter.
Dealing with a roster that has been torn apart by injuries, the Saints have to hope they can get guys like cornerback Marshon Lattimore and receiver Chris Olave back for their Week 17 game against the Eagles. New Orleans will go into that game as an underdog regardless of who ends up at quarterback for Philadelphia, but it will obviously hope that Hurts misses another contest after he was held out of the Cowboys-Eagles tilt this past weekend. (Hurts' first career start was a win against these very Saints in 2020.)
I'm not sure the Saints match up well against their remaining schedule, given that they rank 23rd in rush defense DVOA and are about to face the Eagles and Panthers. Without much of a margin for error on offense, the key for these Saints has to be avoiding giveaways. They've gone just 1-6 when they turn the ball over two times or more this season and have posted a respectable 5-3 mark when limiting themselves to no more than one giveaway.
Tampa Bay's overtime victory hurt New Orleans' chances of making a late run into the postseason, but it didn't shut the Saints out entirely. In addition to winning out to hit 8-9, the Saints need the Buccaneers to lose both of their remaining games. Saints fans might not exactly like the idea of rooting for the rival Falcons, but unless Atlanta can upset the Bucs in Tampa Bay during Week 18, the Saints will be spending the rest of January at home.
Things would have been different if the Saints hadn't blown a 13-point lead with three minutes to go against the Bucs in Week 14, but as we've seen repeatedly from Tampa Bay this season, Brady & Co. somehow manage to find a way to pull out games after looking lost and discombobulated for 3½ quarters. It won't be pretty, but if that win and a series of similar victories pushes Brady into the postseason for the 20th time in 23 seasons, Tampa Bay won't care how it got there.