Re-drafting the top 15 picks of the 2021 NFL draft: Who goes No. 1?

It has been almost two years since the 2021 NFL draft, heralded as a top-tier quarterback class that saw five go in the first 15 picks. On Thursday night, two of them -- the top two draft picks that April -- will face off. Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars visit Zach Wilson and the New York Jets (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video). But would they have still been the top two picks if we re-picked that class?

With the benefit of hindsight, NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid re-drafted the top 15 picks from 2021, starting with the Jags at No. 1. They explained each pick by looking at team need and player performances through nearly two full seasons. We reset the draft order to what it was entering draft day and didn't allow for new trades in the projections. That means the San Francisco 49ers are still picking at No. 3 (they traded up in March of that year), but the New York Giants' flip with the Chicago Bears at No. 11 gets voided.

What would each team do if they could do it all over again? How many quarterbacks would still land in the top 15? And how high would stars such as Micah Parsons and Ja'Marr Chase go?

Let's start with Jacksonville, with Miller winning the coin flip in our alternating re-draft and going first:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Original pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB
New pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB

Miller: There are plenty of directions the Jaguars could go in a 2021 re-draft -- Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is among the league's elite players, and quarterback Justin Fields has been amazing in Chicago -- but the Jaguars got it right the first time. Lawrence had a rocky rookie season, but he has had an awakening and is playing franchise quarterback-level football.

He finished last season with 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. And now through 14 games this season, he already has doubled his touchdowns (24) and cut down on his picks (7). In his past six games, he has 14 touchdown passes, just one pick and has completed 70.8% of his throws. Overall, he ranks in the top 10 among quarterbacks in passing yards, touchdowns and completions.

2. New York Jets

Original pick: Zach Wilson, QB
New pick: Justin Fields, QB

Reid: The Jets get a chance to right their pick here. Fields just surpassed the 1,000-yard mark as a rusher in Chicago, but imagine him with this ascending roster and in a Mike LaFleur offense that keeps a quarterback on schedule with a lot of easy throws. He still has much to prove as a passer, but his development could lead to great things. Having him under center would change this team's trajectory with an exciting dual-threat orchestrating the offense.

Wilson's time with the Jets has been complicated. He has thrown 15 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in 21 career starts, and he was benched last month before returning in Week 15 because of Mike White's injury. He has completed just 55.4% of his passes over the past two seasons.

3. San Francisco 49ers

Original pick: Trey Lance, QB
New pick: Micah Parsons, LB

Miller: The 49ers have shown they can win without an elite quarterback, but the defense could use another elite pass-rusher. Adding Parsons opposite Nick Bosa would give them the NFL's most feared defensive line. They already have a great defense, but Parsons' rare ability to play as a stand-up linebacker or edge rusher sets him apart. And in a division with throw-first offenses in Arizona and Los Angeles, Parsons' 25 career sacks would be a huge addition.

Lance, whom San Francisco acquired after a huge trade a month before the draft, is still largely an unknown at the NFL level because of injuries. He has started just four games and attempted 102 passes, throwing five touchdown passes and three interceptions while adding a rushing score. He has completed just 54.9% of his passes. Lance has also been outplayed by rookie seventh-rounder Brock Purdy when comparing their performances.

4. Atlanta Falcons

Original pick: Kyle Pitts, TE
New pick: Ja'Marr Chase, WR

Reid: Chase is the easy new pick here, as he'd give the Falcons more consistency in the passing game. The wideout has already set the rookie single-season record for receiving yards (1,455), and he is one of only two wide receivers in NFL history to have at least 2,000 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns before their 23rd birthday (Randy Moss). Adding the young star wideout to the team's offense provides a dynamic playmaker outside.

Atlanta's original pick, Pitts, has struggled to become a mainstay after a big rookie season (1,026 yards and one touchdown). This season, he has only caught 28 receptions for 356 yards before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 11. Pitts will still make the top 15 here (spoiler!), but Chase is the no-brainer selection for Atlanta.

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Original pick: Ja'Marr Chase, WR
New pick: Rashawn Slater, OT

Miller: I would have jumped all over Chase if he were still on the board, but let's throw it back to the debate that dominated Cincinnati's pick in mock drafts at the time: Should the Bengals focus on protecting Burrow or give him a star wideout? And with Chase off the board, it becomes a lot easier of a call.

The Bengals' offensive line could still use help, and a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle like Slater would boost the entire offense while finding a legitimate receiver would be possible in subsequent rounds. He has appeared in 1,220 offensive plays since being drafted (limited to three games this season with torn left biceps) and has only allowed five sacks. And his 91.1% pass block win rate over those 19 games ranks 17th among all NFL tackles.

6. Miami Dolphins

Original pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR
New pick: Pat Surtain II, CB

Reid: Waddle is a dangerous complementary pass-catcher in the Miami offense, but Surtain plays a premium position, and a strong argument could be made that he's already among the top five cornerbacks in the entire league. He already has six interceptions and 24 pass breakups through his first two seasons and is a shutdown man-to-man corner. Oh, and Surtain goes to the team that once drafted his father. The younger Surtain would immediately be a building block for the Dolphins, who are giving up 246.3 passing yards per game this season (27th).

7. Detroit Lions

Original pick: Penei Sewell, OT
New pick: Penei Sewell, OT

Miller: The Lions got it right the first time, and while there will be arguments for a quarterback, the offense is doing just fine with Jared Goff. Neither Zach Wilson nor Mac Jones warrant a top-10 pick, and Trey Lance has thrown for less than 1,000 yards due to injury and development. So let's stick with Sewell, who has been rock solid in his two seasons, allowing just three sacks this season for one of the league's highest-scoring offenses. Sewell is one of the NFL's best young left tackles and a player the Lions can build around.

8. Carolina Panthers

Original pick: Jaycee Horn, CB
New pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR

Reid: The Panthers secured a key cornerstone of their defense with Horn, and he was really tough to pass up here in a re-do after hauling in four picks over 15 career games. But this offense also needs a jumpstart on the outside, and Waddle is a game-breaker in that regard. He is an explosive catch-and-run threat who completely alters the outcome of games in an instant. His 104 receptions during his first season were the most ever by a rookie, and he recorded at least eight catches in seven games to set a new mark for first-year wide receivers.

Waddle already has back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons to his credit, and the Panthers' offense has lacked that type of three-level receiver in its scheme. Pairing him with D.J. Moore would make for a dangerous one-two punch.

9. Denver Broncos

Original pick: Pat Surtain II, CB
New pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT

Miller: Surtain would have been my pick here, but with him off the board, let's focus on an offensive line that has been under fire since Peyton Manning retired. Over the past two seasons, the Broncos have allowed 91 sacks, the third-most in the NFL. Darrisaw (originally the 23rd pick in 2021) looks like an All-Pro this season and would solve many of their current and long-term problems on the offensive line. He has allowed only three sacks over 651 offensive snaps this season, and his 78.4% run block win rate is 13th among all tackles.

10. Dallas Cowboys

Original pick: DeVonta Smith, WR (PHI traded up)
New pick: Jaycee Horn, CB

Reid: The Cowboys hit a home run with their original pick, trading back and still landing arguably the best player in the class in Micah Parsons -- but we undid any draft-day deals here. And Dallas still could have drafted a star even if it had stayed home at No. 10 rather than trading with a divisional rival in the Eagles. Offensive line help was needed at the time, and adding Rashawn Slater or Christian Darrisaw would have been a positive alternative.

But I went with Horn, who could end up as one of the better corners in the league. With four interceptions through 15 career games played, he has progressively improved with each outing. An argument can be made for him to be selected higher, but the Cowboys would be more than happy to place him opposite Trevon Diggs to give their defense two lockdown cornerbacks. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he has limited opponents to minus-13 expected points added when he's the nearest defender on passing plays, eighth best among defensive backs this season.

11. New York Giants

Original pick: Justin Fields, QB (CHI traded up)
New pick: DeVonta Smith, WR

Miller: Man, the Giants could have stayed put and drafted Justin Fields, but he's off the board in this re-draft. I'm not going to be tempted by any of the available quarterbacks -- frankly, because I don't think they're worth a pick this high in hindsight -- but instead give the Giants a legit WR1 to correct the many errors former GM Dave Gettleman made at that position. Smith would be a big help for a Giants team whose current leading receiver is Darius Slayton with 40 catches, 631 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Smith has 71 catches, 901 yards and five touchdowns on the season for the Eagles, and he averages 5.3 yards after the catch per reception.

New York originally moved back to No. 20 and drafted Florida receiver Kadarius Toney -- who played in just 10 games with the Giants (39 catches) before being traded to Kansas City at the trade deadline.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

Original pick: Micah Parsons, LB (DAL pick from PHI trade)
New pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G

Reid: The team originally traded up to 10th for DeVonta Smith, but wow, imagine adding Parsons to that Eagles front? It would have been a nightmare for opposing teams, but they are instead forced to face him twice a season.

Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman has shown that he values the trenches, and the Eagles would be overjoyed to add a player of Vera-Tucker's stature to the inside of their offensive front. With the center position manned by Jason Kelce, Vera-Tucker could fill in at either guard spot and provide the team with a versatile, rock-solid interior force. Prior to his triceps injury this season, Vera-Tucker was playing at an All-Pro level. He has logged starts at every spot along the offensive line except center over two seasons, and he has only allowed five sacks over nearly 1,400 snaps.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

Original pick: Rashawn Slater, OT
New pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR

Miller: Jordan, you keep taking my picks! I would have loved Alijah Vera-Tucker to the Chargers. But with no offensive tackles of value still on the board (Slater went fifth in our re-draft), let's load Justin Herbert up with playmakers. St. Brown looks like the steal of the '21 draft (fourth round at No. 112 overall) and would be awesome in tandem with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while also picking up the slack during their inevitable injuries (both have missed significant time this season).

St. Brown has been a standout for the Lions this year, leading the team with 89 catches, 974 receiving yards and six touchdowns. His 105 first-down receptions rank 10th over the past two seasons.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Original pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, G (NYJ traded up)
New pick: Kyle Pitts, TE

Reid: This was a tough pick with a lot of options. The Vikings originally traded back and ended up with Christian Darrisaw down the board, which has ended up well for them. But Darrisaw isn't available. Pitts is, though, and would be a fantastic addition to an already explosive offense.

While his second-year stats don't reflect his impact, we saw during his first season how much of a security blanket Pitts can be for quarterbacks. He posted 1,026 receiving yards in 2021, becoming only the second rookie tight end in NFL history to surpass the 1,000-yard mark. With the versatility to play on the outside or in the slot, he can be a mismatch against defensive backs or linebackers. And Pitts would be a welcomed addition to a stacked offense for Kirk Cousins.

15. New England Patriots

Original pick: Mac Jones, QB
New pick: Creed Humphrey, C

Miller: In my opinion, the Patriots' offense isn't that different with Bailey Zappe under center compared to Jones. In his two seasons, Jones has been solid but unspectacular. His Total QBR of 30.7 this season is 32nd of 33 qualified quarterbacks, and his career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 29-to-21. He's a low-level NFL starter and won't take this offense where it needs to go.

Fixing the offensive line and ensuring a strong front five is more important than finding a system quarterback in the first round. Humphrey -- originally the 63rd pick -- looks like the next Jason Kelce and is already an All-Pro caliber player. His 97.8% pass block win rate is No. 1 in the entire NFL across all OL positions over the past two seasons.