In NFL circles, "luck" can be a dirty word. Players and coaches devote their lives to winning games each and every week, so nobody wants to believe those games might be decided by elements out of their control. Everyone has heard that old idiom about how you would rather be lucky than good, but NFL teams try to be good and hope that whatever lucky elements pop up on Thursday, Sunday and Monday go their way.
"Luck" might be too simplistic to describe what I'm discussing. Some elements of the game are truly random and uncontrollable, like fumble recoveries or the success of opposing kickers. Others are subject to massive amounts of variance because they're in small samples, like how a team performs on fourth down. From looking at the history of the NFL, we can get a sense of whether some elements of a team's performance are unsustainable and what that means for their future.
We saw an example of how variance can impact things Monday night. The Commanders played an excellent game against the Eagles and deserved to win, but they got some help along the way. Before that game, the Eagles had fumbled seven times on offense and recovered six of them. We know that offenses typically recover roughly 57% of their fumbles from year-to-year and that there's no track record for teams recovering a significant percentage of their fumbles season after season.
On Monday night, though, Philadelphia fumbled three times. The Commanders recovered them all. Those fumbles led to 10 points (the touchdown on the final play and the field goal after Dallas Goedert was dragged down by his facemask). It also cost the Eagles a scoring opportunity after Quez Watkins fumbled a long catch on the Commanders' 23-yard line.
The Eagles turned a Commanders fumble into a touchdown, too, but you can see how the game might have turned out differently if Washington linebacker Jamin Davis had been flagged or if someone had tapped Watkins while he was on the ground after his catch. Those small margins win or lose games every week.
Let's look back at the first 10 weeks of the season and use the evidence I've found to try to identify teams that have been lucky or unlucky. If you want to substitute fortunate or well-timed for lucky, that's fine, too. I'll get into why each team deserves to be in their respective category and what it means for their season moving forward. I'll also finish with one team that somehow has simultaneously been both lucky and unlucky.
We'll begin with a contender that unexpectedly struggled during an uneven first half:
Jump to a team:
Bills | Browns | Bucs
Dolphins | Falcons | Giants
Jaguars | Raiders | Titans
Unlucky: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
What has gone wrong: Fumble recoveries, tougher schedule, defensive red zone woes
Let's start with the Bucs, who represent a classic example of how things can go wrong in the first half of a season. I won't even touch on their injury woes, which cost them most of their offensive line and nearly all of their receivers for stretches of time. The injuries are going to linger into the second half, given that edge rusher Shaq Barrett (left Achilles) and center Ryan Jensen (left knee) are out for the season.
Take their performance on defense. Outside of the red zone, the Buccaneers have the league's fifth-best defense by expected points added (EPA) per play. Inside the 20-yard line, though, they haven't been anywhere near as effective. They rank 18th in EPA per play allowed in the red zone. Opposing teams have converted 63% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against Tampa Bay, the eighth-highest rate in the league.
The Bucs ranked 10th in red zone conversion rate on defense in 2021. Past performance isn't indicative of future success, but we know from the broader NFL that teams that play much worse in the red zone than they do outside of it typically see their red zone performance improve as the season progresses. A great defense, most of the time, typically will be great in the red zone or get there as it gets a larger sample.
Let's go back to the first 10 weeks of the 2020 season. The Buccaneers were the second-best defense in the league in EPA per play outside of the 20-yard line, but they ranked 26th inside the red zone. Over the rest of the season and into the playoffs, that didn't hold up; they ranked 12th outside the 20 and ninth inside the 20.
Tampa also has been unlucky when footballs have hit the ground this season. The average team recovers just under 58% of their fumbles on offense, but the Bucs only have recovered three of the nine balls they've put on the ground, or 33%. Doing the math, you can probably guess that teams recover a little more than 42% of the fumbles they force on the defensive side of the ball, but despite forcing 12, the Bucs only have recovered four. They're tied with the Browns for the worst fumble recovery rate in the league.
There's also that strength-of-schedule argument. A better way to put this than lucky might be "lopsided." Per Football Outsiders, the Bucs played the 12th-toughest schedule through the first 10 weeks. While that might not seem too devastating, things are about to get a lot easier.
Just two of Tampa's final seven games are against teams with winning records: A home game against the 5-4 Bengals and a road trip to play the 5-4 49ers. The Bucs get the Browns and Saints over the next two weeks and finish with the Cardinals, Panthers and Falcons. The Super Bowl LV champs likely will be favored in six of their remaining seven games.
What it means: The Bucs should be able to pull away from their competition in the NFC South and host a playoff game in January.
Lucky: New York Giants (7-2)
What has gone right: One-score games, defensive performance in key situations
Even Giants fans would likely admit their team has run a little hot this season. Sunday's 24-16 win over the Texans wasn't quite as close as the final score -- Houston kicked a futile field goal with seven seconds remaining -- but the Giants have won games by the skin of their teeth. It started with the 21-20 victory over the Titans in the opener when Saquon Barkley ran through a tackle attempt to convert a 2-point conversion with 1:09 to go before Titans kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal.
The Giants are 5-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their biggest win has come by eight points. New York has been outscored 131-123 through the first three quarters of their games, but their plus-22 point differential in the fourth quarter ranks fifth in the league. They obviously aren't saving all their money plays for the final 15 minutes or deliberately playing worse in the first 45.
While it certainly feels like the Giants have established a formula of keeping things close for three quarters before winning in the fourth, it's tough to sustain that over an entire season. Take the 2006 Giants. Through the first 10 weeks of that season, they trailed their opponents by 19 points in the first three quarters, only to outscore opponents by 45 points in the fourth. Like the modern Giants, the 2006 team looked to be on the right track; they were 6-3 to start the season.
Over the final seven weeks, whatever skill those 2006 Giants had shown in the fourth quarter disappeared. Tom Coughlin's team actually improved dramatically over the first three quarters of games, outscoring teams by a total of 28 points. In the fourth? They were outscored by 67 points, the worst mark of any team from Week 10 on. They finished 2-5, limped into the playoffs at 8-8 and lost in the wild-card round to the Eagles.
This season, coordinator Don Martindale has coaxed spectacular timing out of his defense. All defensive plays aren't created equal -- it's important for a defense to be great on first down and in the middle of the field -- but succeeding on third down and in the red zone matters most if a team hopes to win.
Guess where the Giants have exceeded expectations? Coordinator Don Martindale's defense ranks 26th in EPA per play outside the red zone, but they've been the league's best unit inside the 20 by the same metric. They've allowed teams to make it to the red zone at the third-highest rate on a per-game basis, but they're only allowing those offenses to convert 38.2% of the time, a mark topped only by the Broncos.
On first and second down, the Giants have been the league's fourth-worst defense by EPA per play. On third and fourth down? They morph into the third-best defense. Despite the fact that opposing offenses have the fifth-fewest yards to go to pick up third downs against the Giants, they've been the third-best defense at avoiding conversions.
Maybe Martindale's exotic blitz concepts are flummoxing teams on third downs. I'm willing to believe that possibility, but he blitzes at the league's second-highest rate on first and second down, too, and his defense isn't as successful in those moments. There's just no way the Giants can continue to be this good on third down and in the red zone if they don't get better -- much better -- elsewhere on defense.
What it means: Facing the league's sixth-toughest schedule over the rest of the season, I would be concerned about the Giants keeping up among the top teams in the NFC without improving their level of play.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Giants an 82% chance of making it to the postseason. While they should still be favored to advance into the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if they posted a losing record over the second half of the season.
Unlucky: Cleveland Browns (3-6)
What has gone wrong: Losses in close games, fumble recovery woes
With quarterback Deshaun Watson set to return in Week 13, coach Kevin Stefanski likely hoped to be around .500, thinking Watson's arrival after being suspended for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy might spark the Browns to a late-season playoff run. Instead, at 3-6 and with the Bills and Buccaneers coming up over the next two weeks, their season is all but over; ESPN's FPI gives them just a 4.2% chance of making it to the postseason.
Play-by-play metrics think Cleveland has been better than its record. DVOA ranks it as the NFL's 15th-best team, two spots ahead of the 8-1 Vikings. FPI is even more optimistic, pegging the Browns 13th. Their point differential (minus-21) suggests they should be 4-5. The problem: They're 1-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer.
Cleveland's woeful defense, which ranks 31st in points allowed per game, has been to blame. The Browns have blown fourth-quarter leads four different times, including a 13-point lead with 1:55 to go against the Jets in Week 2. They managed to overcome one of those deficits when Cade York hit a 58-yard field goal to beat the Panthers in Week 1, but the rookie kicker missed a would-be game-winner against the Chargers (Week 5) and had a game-tying attempt against the Ravens (Week 7) blocked.
The Browns also have been done in by not landing on bouncing footballs. They've recovered just 33.3% of fumbles, tied for the worst mark. If they had recovered fumbles at league-average rates, they would have recovered 11.7 fumbles so far. Instead, they've jumped on eight. The 3.7-recovery difference is the most of any team.
What it means: While I wouldn't count on them beating the Bills or Bucs, Cleveland's schedule does get easier over the final six weeks. Their playoff hopes are likely out the window, but with Watson returning and a little more luck in close games, the Browns should finish the 2022 season stronger than they've started.
Lucky: Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
What has gone right: Well-timed defensive performance, fumble recoveries, opposing special teams
The Falcons have exceeded my expectations. I thought they would be one of the league's worst teams. Instead, they've been competitive in just about every one of their games. Fans of this team might argue they're unlucky to have a losing record, given that they came within a furious comeback of beating the Saints in Week 1, then failed to capitalize on a Cooper Kupp fumble that gifted them a short field in the fourth quarter of a close game against the Rams the following week.
We could just as easily point to the first Panthers game when the Atlanta prevent defense failed to keep DJ Moore from catching a spectacular touchdown pass with 12 seconds to go. The Panthers could have won the game if kicker Eddy Pineiro had converted the ensuing 48-yard extra point or a 32-yard field goal attempt in overtime, but he missed both attempts, opening up the door for Atlanta's Younghoe Koo to win the game with a 41-yard try.
With that Panthers game as the most significant example, the Falcons have benefited from subpar special teams play by the opposing team. Football Outsiders tracks a "hidden" special teams statistic, measuring how teams benefit from special teams situations out of their control, most namely opposing success on kick attempts. Pineiro's disastrous game directly led to an Atlanta victory.
Fumbles have also bounced the Falcons' way. They have forced a league-low five fumbles on defense, but they've recovered all five. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but recovering fumbles is random. Atlanta has the league's second-highest recovery rate this season.
Coordinator Dean Pees' defense is handicapped by a middling pass rush and a patchwork secondary, especially while star cornerback A.J. Terrell has been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Despite those issues, the Falcons have been much better on money downs; they rank 30th in EPA per play on first and second down but 14th on third and fourth down. It's one thing for the Giants to force that with successful blitzes, but Pees is blitzing -- and getting pressure on the quarterback -- at one of the league's lowest rates.
To be fair, coach Arthur Smith's offense might also expect to improve on third down. They have been the league's second-best offense on first and second down, but they're 21st on third and fourth down. Here's one where the numbers align with the obvious explanation: The Falcons have a creative, successful run game, but they aren't a good offense when Marcus Mariota is forced into throwing situations. I would expect them to be better on third down over the final eight weeks, but I don't think Atlanta fans should expect one of the league's best offenses on third down, either.
What it means: I don't think it should mean all that much in the short term. The Falcons get the Bears, Commanders, Steelers and Saints over their next four games, teams that each rank behind them in DVOA.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons continued their push toward a winning record, although that might fall short as the schedule gets tougher in December. Smith might also eventually opt to get rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder reps, especially if Mariota plays as poorly as he did in last week's loss to Carolina.
Unlucky: Buffalo Bills (6-3)
What has gone wrong: Red zone offense, third-down defense
You saw the end of the game against the Vikings, didn't you? The Bills were two successful center-quarterback snaps away from jumping to 7-2, but Josh Allen and Mitch Morse failed to combine on the first snap, with Minnesota falling on it for a stunning touchdown. The Bills then forced overtime and were in the position to tie or win the game, only for Allen to throw an interception to Patrick Peterson.
I covered Allen's issues protecting the football in the red zone on Monday, but even in their victories, the Bills haven't been very good inside the 20 this season. The league's second-best offense outside of the red zone by EPA per play has also been its fifth-worst offense inside the red zone. The Bills are 27th in the league in points per red zone possession, down from fifth a year ago.
I'm a little concerned about the Buffalo run game, but Allen's ability as a runner and his track record as a passer inside the 20 before the last few weeks makes me think he should be able to turn things around and score more often. As long as he's in the lineup, I would be surprised if the Bills weren't a league-average red zone offense over the rest of the season.
Likewise, there's an argument for what's hurt the Bills on the defensive side of the ball. Von Miller & Co. have been the league's best defense by EPA per play on first and second down, but they've fallen to 18th on third and fourth down. The Buffalo pass rush has been able to impose their will at times, but injuries have forced it to play rookies, backups and special-teamers in the secondary for critical games. Coordinator Leslie Frazier was without both starting safeties and each of his outside cornerbacks during Sunday's loss.
Here, I'm a little more concerned about Buffalo's chances to turn things around. Micah Hyde (neck) is out for the season, and while Tre'Davious White (left knee) was activated from injured reserve two weeks ago, the team hasn't inserted him into the lineup. When asked about White's status this week, coach Sean McDermott said that his star cornerback is "...just not in a position where he's ready," which doesn't seem to augur much optimism for White's chances of playing at a high level anytime soon.
What it means: Play-by-play metrics still think the Bills are the most dominant team in the league, as DVOA comfortably ranks Buffalo as the best team in football. ESPN's FPI has the Bills second behind the Chiefs. Despite now ranking third in the AFC East standings, FPI is optimistic about their chances of turning things around, projecting them to have a 59.3% chance of winning the division and a 22.3% chance of claiming the first-round bye in the AFC.
I would be a little more nervous. Allen's UCL injury could sap this effectiveness and lead to more turnovers. The injury issues in the secondary are real, and I'm concerned about whether White will be his old self upon returning. The Bills hold tiebreakers over the Chiefs and Titans, but they lost head-to-head matchups against the Dolphins and Jets. I wouldn't be surprised if they went 7-1 over the final eight weeks of the season and won the East, but they have more uncertainty than most teams of this caliber after 10 weeks.
Lucky: Miami Dolphins (7-3)
What has gone right: One-score games, hidden special teams
Dolphins fans are rightfully over the moon. Tua Tagovailoa has been the league's best quarterback on a snap-by-snap basis this season. Mike McDaniel looks to be the right head-coaching hire after years of disappointing decisions. The defense has struggled, but Miami has won every game Tagovailoa has completed so far in 2022. If anything, given that the Dolphins lost the three games Tagovailoa mostly or entirely missed because of a concussion, Fins supporters might feel like they've been unlucky.
While the Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team and contender in the AFC East, I would argue they've had fortuitous timing for stretches. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including comeback victories in consecutive weeks over the Ravens and Bills. In the wins over the Bills and Steelers, they had to come up with a red zone stop to win. The Lions and Bears had fourth-quarter drives to try to take the lead, only to come up short.
Josh Boyer's defense deserves credit for coming up with those stops, but it's curious how it has struggled so often for long stretches of games and then sealed up shop at exactly the right time. On the whole, the Dolphins rank 26th in defensive EPA per play allowed. When they're leading by seven points or fewer in the fourth quarter, though, they have the league's eighth-best defense.
What's weird about those red zone stops is that Miami otherwise has been abysmal inside its own 20-yard line. It has allowed teams to convert for touchdowns on 68.8% of their red zone possessions, the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Dolphins only have three "stuffs" for zero points in 32 red zone trips this season: a stop at the 1-yard line against the Ravens, from the 2-yard line against the Bills and an interception of Kenny Pickett in the Steelers win. They needed all three stops to win those games.
Miami also has benefited from sloppy play on special teams. While it has fielded the league's worst special teams by DVOA through 10 weeks, it has gotten help from a source I wouldn't typically consider: subpar opposing punting. While opposing kickers have been above-average on field goals and extra points, punters facing the Dolphins are only averaging 41.9 yards per punt. That's nearly two yards per punt below the second-worst mark, and it's more than five yards below the league average.
What it means: The Dolphins probably can't count on pulling out quite as many close games over the rest of the season. Four of their next six games after the bye are on the road, including a three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.
With that being said, the defense is likely to improve in the red zone and produce more as a pass rush after adding Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. The Dolphins should be a more balanced team from here on out, which could be scary given how effective their offense has been with Tagovailoa on the field.
Unlucky: Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
What has gone wrong: One-score games, offensive performance in key situations
There's a universe in which the Jaguars are this year's Giants or Jets. They have held fourth-quarter leads in seven of their 10 games. They've been favored to win by ESPN's win expectancy model for at least one fourth-quarter play in eight contests, with the losses to the Chiefs and Eagles as the exceptions. The other teams that fit that criteria are the Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles, Titans and Vikings, and they've gone a combined 27-5 in those games. The league as a whole is 148-58-2 in those moments. The Jags are 3-5.
Jacksonville is the only team besides Houston to post a losing record in those moments. In part, it's because it hasn't been able to create unassailable leads; the Jags only have been able to broach a win expectancy in the fourth quarter topping 90% on three occasions, winning each time. The results haven't been pretty when they have been in position to put the game away.
For whatever they offer on early downs or in neutral situations, the Jacksonville offense hasn't been good in the situations that matter most. Take their performance by downs. On first and second down, the Jags have been the third-best offense in football by EPA per play, just ahead of the Bills, Cowboys and Eagles. On third and fourth down? They're 20th in the same category. They fall off almost identically to the Falcons, but Doug Pederson's offense doesn't have the same run-heavy approach and personnel limitations that affect Arthur Smith's group in Atlanta.
Likewise, the red zone has been a mess. For the first 80 yards of their march down the field, the Jaguars are the fourth-best offense by EPA per play, ahead of the Eagles and Vikings. Inside the 20-yard line? They rank 25th. With four giveaways inside the 20, the only team that has turned the ball over more often in obvious scoring situations is Buffalo, which has five.
As I've covered earlier in this piece, the evidence suggests teams that play well on early downs or outside of the red zone will eventually figure out the rest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence is too good of a player to make subpar decisions near the goal line. He'll get better. Whether you want to chalk this up to variance or player development is up to you, but I would expect the Jaguars to score more often the next seven weeks.
The one problem? Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher. The Jags have faced the league's third-easiest schedule so far, but per Football Outsiders, they're about to embark on a trip against the league's third-most difficult slate of opponents. Four of their next six games are on the road, and their end to the season includes games against the Ravens, Jets and Cowboys, plus a home-and-home with the Titans. If they do show significant signs of growth over the second half, they'll be earning it against stiff competition.
What it means: With Jacksonville's playoff chances dropping to 8.8% after the loss to the Chiefs, it would need the Colts and Titans to spiral out to get back into the postseason picture. Given its difficult schedule, we'll likely see more promising signs from the offense in November and December with an upset sprinkled in, but the Jags should still finish the season with only six or seven wins.
Lucky: Tennessee Titans (6-3)
What has gone right: One-score games, offensive red zone performance, defensive third down success, lopsided schedule
Oh boy. My annual column on the teams most likely to decline has been a mixed bag for 2022. The Packers, Raiders and Steelers have all fallen way below expectations. The Falcons have outpaced them. I'd say the same thing about the Titans, who continue to win with their own formula. They win with a backup rookie quarterback Malik Willis and with guys such as Andrew Adams and Mario Edwards signed during the middle of the season to play meaningful snaps on defense. Nobody would deny the Titans are one of the best-coached teams in football, myself included.
Even by their own standards, though, this is remarkable. I've written about how Tennessee is an outlier on offense in the red zone over the past few years, and that has continued this season. It ranked first and second in red zone conversion rate between 2019 and 2020. It ranked fifth last season, and while you might attribute that to Derrick Henry's foot injury, it actually was better inside the 20-yard line without the star running back.
Unsurprisingly, the Titans are the league's best red zone offense this season, converting nearly 77% of the time. I'm not here to tell you they're going to struggle to sustain that, because I've given up on them regressing toward the mean in the red zone. What I am going to say is that their offense has gone from being buoyed by their red zone performance to being dependent on it. Here's their rank in EPA per play inside and outside the red zone over the past four seasons:
2019: 7th outside the red zone, 7th inside the red zone
2020: 4th outside the red zone, 3rd inside the red zone
2021: 18th outside the red zone, 12th inside the red zone
2022: 29th outside the red zone, 1st inside the red zone
In 2019 and 2020, the Titans were great inside and outside the red zone. Last season, they were a little below-average outside the 20 and slightly above-average inside. This season, they're a mess over the first 80 yards of the field and dominant near the goal line. This isn't a Willis issue, either; they actually had a slightly better EPA per play outside the 20 with Willis as their starter than they did with Ryan Tannehill.
If EPA seems too abstract of a concept, think of it a different way. The Titans are the second-worst team at getting to the red zone, averaging just 2.3 trips per game. They're the league's best offense once they get there. They'll likely be better outside of the red zone during the second half, but this is nothing like the offense we saw in previous seasons.
Flip to the defensive side of the ball. The Titans are about league-average on first and second down, ranking 14th in EPA per play. On third and fourth down, they've been the fourth-best defense. Teams are converting just 27.9% of their third-down attempts against them, the worst mark by nearly 5 percentage points. This hasn't been as consistent of a trend; they were sixth in third-down conversion rate in 2021, and with different personnel, dead last in 2020.
I don't see this one sustaining. For one, on fourth down, the Titans have been the league's worst defense, allowing teams to convert more often (14 times) and at the highest rate (82.4%) of any other team. If you want to believe there's something innate about this team that would make it a great third-down defense, it's difficult to reconcile that with how it has played (in a much smaller sample) on fourth down.
Vrabel's team is 5-2 in one-score games after a 17-10 victory over the Broncos last week. Ironically, the Titans could have pretty easily been 7-0, having blown two games with a fourth-quarter win expectancy of more than 90% in losses to the Chiefs and Giants. If Randy Bullock would have hit a 46-yard field goal or Tennessee would have come up with a third-and-16 stop against Patrick Mahomes, it might be considered the best team in football right now.
The Titans could also be 3-4 or worse. Jeffery Simmons & Co. stopped a 2-pointer that would have tied the game for the Raiders in Week 3 with 1:14 to go. They survived three plays from the 2-yard line against the Commanders in Week 5 when David Long intercepted Carson Wentz with nine seconds to go in a four-point game. Drives by the Colts and Broncos for game-winning scores in the fourth quarter stalled just outside the red zone. The Titans have been great in these one-score games the last couple of season, but they've also lost a pair of home games in the postseason by a touchdown or less, too.
While the Titans should be luckier recovering fumbles after picking up just 34.8% of their opportunities through the first 10 weeks, their schedule is also getting tougher. Football Outsiders suggests they have faced the league's fifth-easiest average opponent so far, a mark that will increase to the 10th-toughest run moving forward.
Tennessee still has a home-and-home with the Jags on its schedule, but over the next five weeks, it travels to face the Chargers, Eagles and Packers while hosting the Bengals. It also gets a Thursday night game against the Cowboys in Week 17.
What it means: The Titans have an 80.9% chance to win their division per ESPN's FPI, and I wouldn't argue against them claiming their third consecutive AFC South title. They also are a tough matchup for the Eagles given Henry's presence between the tackles. My guess is they land at 11-6 and come in as the 3-seed in the AFC.
Lucky and Unlucky: Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
What has gone right and wrong: The Raiders are being pulled to both poles of the luck spectrum. Their season is all but over. The Upshot's playoff simulator suggests they would need to win out to earn a playoff berth. With games against the Chargers, 49ers and Chiefs still to come, that's a big ask for the league's most frustrating team.
Before the season, I wrote that the Raiders had been lucky to face a string of backup quarterbacks to finish last season. They had gone 7-2 in one-score games, one of the league's best marks. The 2016 Raiders had followed a season in which they went 8-1 in one-score games by falling apart and going 6-10 the following season, which led to the firing of Jack Del Rio and the second Jon Gruden era for the organization.
This season, Las Vegas is 0-6 in one-score games, the worst record for any team. They've had a few injuries -- and the new coaching staff hasn't covered itself in playcalling glory -- but if you're looking for a real-life example of how random performance in one-score games can be, here's the dictionary definition from this point forward. The Raiders either held a lead or had a chance to take the lead on offense in the fourth quarter in every one of those games. They've come up short each time.
Despite trading for Davante Adams, the red zone has been a house of horrors. Vegas has converted just 51.9% of its red zone trips, which ranks 22nd. It has been the league's seventh-best offense by EPA per play in the red zone, but it's 22nd by the same stat once it gets there. Even without pass-catchers Hunter Renfrow (ribs) or Darren Waller (left hamstring) for the foreseeable future, the Raiders should be better inside the 20 as the season goes along.
So, why aren't they listed as an unlucky team? Because there is lots of other evidence they have benefited from good fortune. They've recovered nearly 69% of fumbles, the league's top rate. Their offense ranks 22nd on early downs and fifth by EPA per play on third and fourth down. Opposing kickers have gone 11-for-17 on field goals against them, the worst conversion rate. As bad as it has gone for the Raiders, somehow, it could be even worse.
What it means: One more problem for the Raiders: Their schedule is about to get more difficult. They have gone 2-7 against what Football Outsiders believes to be the NFL's easiest schedule. From here on out, they play the league's 14th-toughest slate, including that season-ending run against the 49ers and Chiefs. The Raiders could come in at or above .500 over the remainder of the season, especially if the Chiefs use Week 18 to rest their starters in advance of the postseason.