And in Week 10, the mighty Buffalo Bills -- preseason Super Bowl favorites who have outscored their opponents by a league-best average of 11 points per game -- fell into third place.
If ever there was an NFL Week 10 development just begging to be overreacted to, this might be it.
Josh Allen started and didn't look like a guy whose elbow was bothering him, but the Bills blew a 17-point lead at home and lost their second game in a row. The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, absolutely rolled the Cleveland Browns and now occupy first place all alone in the AFC East -- with a head-to-head win against Buffalo in their pocket.
The New York Jets, idle this week, have the same record as Buffalo but also have a head-to-head win against the Bills.
And the New England Patriots, also on a bye this week, lurk just one game behind -- the only fourth-place team in the league with a winning record.
A combination of things is responsible for the AFC East being the most interesting division in the world. Part of it is the Dolphins' lightning-strike offense, coached by Mike McDaniel and powered by Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa. Part of it is Allen's sudden tendency to throw end zone interceptions. Part of it is the Jets having a better all-around roster than a lot of people realized, and part of it is the Patriots just getting the most out of what they have.
But I want to start the Week 10 Overreactions column with the Dolphins and the Bills because they both played Sunday, and their results seem to be the most relevant to the NFL's playoff picture (including, by the way, the NFC one, because no, I haven't forgotten about the team that came back to beat Buffalo in this one). First up this week are the Dolphins, because, frankly, they've earned it.
Tua Tagovailoa belongs in the MVP conversation
Perhaps no quarterback in the league entered the season on a hotter seat. And the early part of Tagovailoa's season was, unfortunately, overshadowed by his concussion issues. But he's overcome all of that to lead the Dolphins to a 7-3 record -- the second-best record in the AFC behind the Kansas City Chiefs. Tagovailoa was a cool 25-for-32 with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Sunday's 39-17 victory over Cleveland. He has not thrown an interception since September. He entered the week with a league-best 80.1 QBR. The Dolphins are 7-1 this year in games he has started, and the one loss was a game he didn't finish because of a concussion. Since returning from the concussions, Tagovailoa has completed 72.2% of his passes and thrown 10 touchdown passes in four games. The Dolphins are 4-0 in those games.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
At the present time, for me, Patrick Mahomes is the no-doubt-about-it MVP. Like, if the vote were held today, I think it'd be an easy decision, and the decision would be Mahomes. However, the question was about "the MVP conversation." Which there always is, and we still have half a season left in which to have it. And having that conversation without Tua at this point would simply be wrong. Go back up to the previous paragraph and read all of that stuff I wrote. Those who would diminish his performance would point out the QB-friendly offense, the fact that Hill and Waddle offer him a pair of targets unlike any other in the league, etc. But look, man, the Dolphins didn't win with Teddy Bridgewater starting. Tua's accuracy and demeanor are absolutely a part of what the Dolphins are able to do on offense, and to deny it would be to cling to a perception that's pretty outdated at this point.
Josh Allen's turnover problems will keep the Bills out of the Super Bowl
The Bills had Sunday's game in their pocket and let it fall out. They took a 27-10 lead with less than two minutes left in the third quarter. And even after Dalvin Cook cut that lead to 10 with an 81-yard touchdown run, Buffalo still managed to go 67 yards in 13 plays and bleed more than six minutes off the clock before Allen threw an end zone interception from the 7-yard line. Up 27-23 with less than a minute to go in regulation, the Bills stopped the Minnesota Vikings at the goal line only to see Allen fumble the ball away on an attempted QB sneak. Minnesota recovered that fumble in the end zone to take the lead. The Bills did manage to tie the game and send it to overtime, but after Minnesota kicked a field goal on its first possession, Allen threw another interception at the goal line that sealed the Vikings' 33-30 win. In his past three games, Allen has thrown six interceptions and fumbled three times (though he's lost only one of the three). The Bills are 1-2 in those games.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
In spite of all of these issues, the Bills were right in position to win all three of the games they've lost this year. The fact that Allen led a game-tying field goal drive in about 40 seconds after the fumble in the end zone gave Minnesota the lead is proof of how explosive and electric he and the Bills' offense can be. They are still a monster defensive team (albeit with some injury issues at linebacker and in the secondary), and it still wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bills in the Super Bowl. They've made things tougher on themselves, for sure. Home-field advantage and the first-round bye are going to be a lot harder to get than it appeared two weeks ago. And Allen's tendency to try to play hero ball all the time could stand to be curtailed a bit. The Bills' record in close games the past two years is 2-9, and that's obviously a potential issue against playoff-caliber opponents. I just feel like we were here last year with the Bills, but they turned it around in the second half and went into the playoffs as hot as anybody. Allen's turnovers certainly should not be ignored, but neither should all of the stuff we liked about the Bills way back when they were 6-1.
The Vikings are the biggest threat to the Eagles in the NFC
Let's spend a little time on the team that erased that 17-point deficit and beat the mighty Bills on Sunday, shall we? First-year coach Kevin O'Connell's Minnesota Vikings are 8-1, which is the best record in the league behind only the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles (who play on Monday Night this week). They have won seven games in a row since a Week 2 loss to those Eagles and are 4½ games clear of the field in the NFC North. Four of their remaining eight games are against teams with winning records, but all four of them are at home. (And they just beat the Bills on the road, so ...) The only road games they have left are, oddly, their three annual away games against division opponents Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I feel like it's either them or the Dallas Cowboys (Sunday's hiccup notwithstanding). The case against Minnesota is that it's been barely squeaking past teams. All seven of the wins in the Vikings' current win streak are by eight points or fewer. A team's record in one-score games is the kind of thing that's supposed to even out over time, and it's certainly possible that any one-score games still to come for the Vikings could break against them. But that's no certainty. There's something to be said for being the kind of team that can win close games -- and that knows it can. Banking all of these wins in the first half of the season sets up Minnesota for a strong playoff seed. The Vikings are set up to coast to the division title, which could help them rest key players who need it going into January. Uh ... what else? Oh, right, they have Justin Jefferson. We know all about Kirk Cousins in prime time, and absent one big win in New Orleans a few years back, he doesn't have much history of playoff success. But these Vikings seem to have something special going. It's possible they can play even better than they have so far, and if so, some of those close wins could start to be blowouts. And then they'd look really scary.
The Tennessee Titans are going to sneak in and steal that No. 1 AFC seed again
I was at the Titans' 17-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. It was, for long stretches, tough to watch. But the Titans managed to win it, which is kind of what they do. They're 6-3 and comfortably in first place in the AFC South, even though they've allowed more points this year than they've scored. Their highest single-game point total of the year is 24, and they haven't hit 20 in a game since Week 5. But their only loss since Week 2 was last week's overtime loss in Kansas City with rookie backup quarterback Malik Willis under center. Certainly no shame in that one. Tennessee is as well coached a team as there is in the league -- if you define good coaching as doing more with less. Head coach Mike Vrabel runs a consistent program, and his teams don't beat themselves. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is overseeing one of the league's most consistently dominant units -- even Sunday, on a day when they were severely short-handed. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing is perpetually short-handed, but again, his unit is finding a way to score enough points pretty much every week. They're no fun to play against, that's for sure.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Titans are only one game back of Kansas City in that race for the top AFC seed, but they're part of a really big group that's vying for that spot, and as mentioned, they lost to the Chiefs and would lose out on the tiebreaker if they didn't pass them. They play at Green Bay on Thursday this week, which isn't as scary as it used to be, but it's still a short-week road game and Tennessee's quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) is playing on a bad ankle. The Titans still have to play the Eagles and the Los Angeles Chargers on the road and the Cincinnati Bengals and Cowboys at home. Again, full kudos to Vrabel and his staff for consistently putting this team in a position to win. And who knows? Maybe the offense improves as it continues to get healthier and the season moves along. If so, Derrick Henry remains an unmatchable threat that, along with their defense, can help the Titans close out games. They'll certainly be a playoff team, and not an enjoyable one for their opponents. But I think there's too much for the Titans to overcome right now for me to envision them as the No. 1 seed for the second year in a row.
The Green Bay Packers are still in this thing
Who knew Christian Watson was the key to solving the Packers' issues all along? The rookie second-round draft pick, who's been out of the lineup for much of the year with injuries, caught three touchdown passes in Green Bay's 31-28 overtime victory over Dallas. But there was more to it than just Watson. The Packers ran the ball effectively all night against the Cowboys' normally stout defense (which, to be fair, was quite banged up in the secondary for this one). They got the stops they needed on defense. Snapping a five-game losing streak isn't easy, and this one wasn't. But the Packers won for the first time since Oct. 2 and improved to 4-6 in an NFC that ... well, has room for some late-blooming wild-card entries. At the time that Mason Crosby's game winner went through the uprights, the No. 7 seed in the NFC field belonged to the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Oh, it's not going to be easy. The Packers still have major issues. They're still missing several key elements on defense. Sure, the run game looked good, but the last time that happened was Week 2, and they got away from it for two months for some reason. Green Bay has a ton of work to do before it really looks like a playoff team. But the team it beat Sunday night is legitimately one of the best in the league, the Packers' quarterback is still Aaron Rodgers, and the NFC playoff field isn't going to be as tough to make as the AFC's is. Hey, maybe they can get Odell Beckham Jr. to show up and be the missing piece? Just sayin' ...