It is clear at this point that the biggest overreaction of the season came in Week 1, when many of us went ahead and wrote off the Dallas Cowboys after Dak Prescott injured his thumb in a season-opening loss to the Buccaneers.
Put aside for the moment what's happened to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since then, the Cowboys right now are one of the top four or five teams in the whole league.
They went 4-1 without Dak. They've gone 2-0 since he returned. They dropped 49 points on the Chicago Bears on Sunday to roll into their bye week at 6-2, a game and a half behind the unbeaten, first-place Philadelphia Eagles, whom they actually played pretty tough in the last game before Prescott came back.
If you were concerned that, upon Prescott's return, the Cowboys would abandon the offensive formula that helped them win games during his absence, the two games they've played since should assuage your concerns. Dallas ran 57 plays Sunday, and 29 of them were run plays. Even with Ezekiel Elliott missing the game due to injury, they leaned on the run and let Prescott pick his spots to pick apart the Chicago secondary.
Prescott finished the game 21-for-27 with two touchdown passes and an interception that helped bring the Bears back into the game just before halftime. But he also had 34 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, and that was the theme of the day for Dallas. When they had to, they controlled the game on the ground. Sure, it helped that the Bears had a horrible tackling day, but you play whom you play and you don't apologize. Tony Pollard is a home run hitter, and his 131 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 14 carries amounted to one of the standout performances of the week. As a team, Dallas averaged 6.9 yards per carry, which is flat-out dominant.
So let's start the Week 8 overreactions column with the Cowboys, since that always feels like a good idea, and we've got one that fantasy players and armchair NFL analysts alike can get excited about.
Tony Pollard should be the Cowboys' lead running back for the rest of the season
Prior to Elliott's Week 7 injury, he and Pollard were pretty much sharing the Cowboys' backfield, though Elliott was functioning as the lead back. Through seven games, Elliott had 109 carries and eight passing-game targets to Pollard's 67 carries and 18 targets. But in those first seven games, Pollard averaged 5.6 yards per carry to Elliott's 4.1. He had four runs of at least 20 yards, while Elliott had only one. (And Pollard added to that total Sunday with a 54-yard touchdown run that put the game away in the fourth quarter.) As tough as Elliott is, no one who has watched the Cowboys over the past couple of years can deny that Pollard is the more explosive runner, and there are plenty who think the Cowboys would be wise to lean on him a lot more than they do.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Look, Sunday was Pollard's day to play the feature back role. And his yardage and touchdown numbers indicate that he took full, glorious advantage of it. But guys ... he had only 14 carries. Undrafted rookie Malik Davis got eight, and the Cowboys were lining wide receiver CeeDee Lamb up in the backfield a decent amount. Pollard has been on the Cowboys for four years now. Don't you think that if they felt he was capable of handling a larger role, he would have one by now -- especially on a day when Zeke was on the sideline? Pollard isn't the pass-protection back Elliott is (few are), so once Elliott is healthy this is a moot point. They will keep playing him in order to help protect Prescott. But fundamentally, the point here is this: The rotation with Elliott and Pollard has worked. The Cowboys are winning games with it. Keeping Pollard fresh so he can keep hitting those home runs feels like a good idea. Let Elliott, who's likely in his final season in Dallas anyway, take the pounding on the early downs and in blitz pickup, and spot Pollard in where he can offer the maximum benefit. Pollard was brilliant on Sunday and can continue to be in the role he played in Weeks 1-7. There's no reason for the Cowboys to move off their plan just because Pollard did what they knew he could do on 14 carries Sunday.
In spite of everything, the Buccaneers are still the best team in the NFC South
These are fascinating times in the NFC South. The Bucs looked listless (again) in a Thursday night loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The New Orleans Saints looked awesome on Sunday in a 24-0 home shutout of the Las Vegas Raiders. And the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers also played. Actually, they played each other in one of the day's cringiest games. The number of things the Panthers had to do to lose this game was stunning. Veteran wide receiver DJ Moore took his helmet off after the game-tying touchdown, incurring a penalty that moved the extra-point attempt back to 48 yards. Eddy Pineiro missed the kick that would've given the Panthers a one-point win, and the game went to overtime, where an interception set up Carolina deep in Atlanta territory for a 33-yard game-winning field goal that Pineiro also missed. Then, finally, the Falcons put the Panthers out of their misery, kicking their own game winner in overtime to move to 4-4 and in sole possession of first place in this miserable division. Had the Panthers won -- and oh boy, they could have -- all four of the division's teams would have been 3-5, which would have felt appropriate. Instead, Arthur Smith's Fightin' Falcons are the only team in the NFC South that doesn't have a losing record. Yes, including Tom Brady's Bucs.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I'm not trying to gloss over the Bucs' problems. They have plenty of them. They're operating one of the worst offenses in the league right now, and whether it's Brady's off-field issues or Bruce Arians' move to the front office or the mess they have on the interior of their offensive line -- or all of the above -- they have to get some things figured out or else they're going to be in this slog all year long. But in spite of it all, they still look like the most talented team in the division. They have recent history we can point to of recovering from a not-so-great first half of the season and finishing super-hot. And while they're behind the Falcons and tied with the Saints, no one is running away with their division the way, say, the Minnesota Vikings are running away from the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. The Bucs have time to figure out their issues. They're 2-1 against the other teams in the division, beating the Falcons and Saints, and losing to Carolina. Everything they want is still available to them, and the talent on their roster is undeniable. On paper, they're still the best team in a division where no one's playing very far over their heads.
Zach Wilson is not the answer for the New York Jets at quarterback
This was supposed to be a big week for the Jets. With a home game against the reeling New England Patriots, a team that had beaten them 12 times in a row and humiliated them 54-13 last season, the Jets came in as the favorites with a 5-2 record and appeared poised to take out years' worth of frustrations. But that's not the way it turned out. Wilson piled up 355 passing yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions, took two sacks and looked flummoxed in key spots by Bill Belichick's defense. In the wake of Breece Hall's season-ending injury, the Jets needed their young quarterback to step up and take command of the offense. Instead, they ended up with their 13th straight loss to Belichick and more questions than answers about what to expect from Wilson moving forward.
Verdict: OVERREACTION, for now
Wilson is still just 23 years old. Sunday was his 18th career NFL start. He wasn't a very experienced starting quarterback coming out of college. It is too soon for the Jets to make any sweeping conclusions about a player they drafted second overall just 18 months ago. All of that said, with Hall out for the year, the Jets' coaching staff can't hide Wilson underneath an overpowering run game. The fact that he hasn't advanced very far as a player -- some might even say he's regressing -- was apparent on Sunday. It must be a priority for the Jets' coaches to reach the end of this season feeling encouraged about Wilson's progress. Because right now, they can't. And no matter how impressive a young roster they've put together, its future rests on whether Wilson is the right guy at quarterback. At the moment, they still can't say for sure one way or the other.
The NFC West will have two playoff teams, but the Los Angeles Rams won't be one of them
Things were looking good Sunday for the defending Super Bowl champs. A ponderous, 9:21 first-quarter touchdown drive put them on the board first against the San Francisco 49ers, and they went right back down the field and scored again after the 49ers tied it to make it 14-7. But they still, as you read this, have not scored again. San Francisco dialed up the second-half pressure on Matthew Stafford, got its own offense rolling and never looked back, winning 31-14 to beat the Rams for the second time already this season. L.A. is 3-4 and in third place in its division, a game and a half behind first-place Seattle, a half-game behind second-place San Francisco and only a half-game in front of fourth-place Arizona.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It'd be easy to chalk this one up. The 49ers have beaten the Rams eight of the past nine times they've played them, with the lone -- and significant -- exception being last year's NFC Championship Game. But the Rams' current issues run deeper than just Sean McVay's inability to beat Kyle Shanahan. The Rams' offensive struggle is, unfortunately, not a new problem. Entering Sunday's games, the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos were the only teams averaging fewer points per game than the Rams' 17.3, and obviously this loss dropped the Rams' average. With the trade deadline looming at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, it's worth remembering that Halloween is the one-year anniversary of the Rams' 2021 trade for Von Miller, which might have unlocked their championship potential. Do they make a big move in the next day or two to boost the offense? Or do they have to get it figured out with what they have? The Christian McCaffrey move has obviously elevated the 49ers' offense, and Seattle looks to be on a mission with Geno Smith playing lights out. The NFC West is no picnic, not even if you're the Super Bowl champs.
The Packers have to make a trade for a receiver before Tuesday's trade deadline
Outside expectations were low for the Packers on Sunday night. Losers of three games in a row, Aaron Rodgers & Co. rolled into Buffalo to take on a Bills team that boasted the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense in the league coming off its bye week. Green Bay was a heavy underdog, and the way the game unfolded showed why. Buffalo had little trouble on offense, the Packers once again couldn't get their own offense going, and the Bills won easily, 27-17. The Packers were already without injured wideouts Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, leaving their wide receiver group shockingly thin and young. And second-round rookie Christian Watson, who has had trouble staying on the field since the offseason due to injuries, suffered a concussion in the first quarter and missed the rest of the game. The Packers did a good job trying to run their offense through running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but when Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are on the other side, you need more than a solid run game to compete.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Look, the Packers surely have other problems. A defense that was supposed to prop them up while the passing game came together around Rodgers and the young receivers has been a weekly disappointment. They have a lot to fix. But in terms of scoring points, I don't see how they can expect to fight their way back into contention with the group of pass-catchers they currently have. When everyone was healthy, the Packers' coaching staff could talk itself into the idea that it could win with that group. But most of that group is not currently healthy, and a football season doesn't lend itself to improved health. Green Bay needs to get outside of its normal comfort zone and deal away some picks for a wide receiver and/or a tight end who can make some big plays and help the Packers expand their offense. At this point, there's no way of knowing whether they're in the final year of Rodgers' time with the franchise, and that's a window they've already bent over backward to try to extend. Failure to at least try to get him what he needs to get back into the playoff race and make a run would make this feel like a wasted year.