Remember three weeks ago, when the Cowboys were in huge trouble?
If you think back hard enough, you can remember. They lost their opener to the Buccaneers, and toward the end of the game they also lost quarterback Dak Prescott for multiple weeks to a thumb injury. The story coming out of Week 1 was, "Cowboys' season is over before it began." Or at least it was supposed to be.
It turns out that was ... well, an overreaction.
Which brings me to this: The Week 4 Overreactions column. With nearly one-quarter of the regular season complete, we now have a decent amount of information about these teams and these players on which to base some real judgments. What was an overreaction after one game probably isn't anymore, if it's been backed up by the past three.
Or in the case of the Cowboys, something that didn't seem like an overreaction in Week 1 turns out to have been a massive one.
Since the Prescott injury, the Cowboys have played the Bengals, the Giants and the Commanders and won all three of those games. They are 3-1, tied with the Giants for second place in the NFC East, one game behind the 4-0 Eagles. (More on that in a moment here.) The 19 points they allowed to Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 1 are the most any opponent has yet scored against them. Their defense is actually getting better every week. They gave up 17 points in Week 2, 16 in Week 3 and just 10 to Washington in Week 4.
Backup quarterback Cooper Rush, who won a game last year that Prescott had to miss due to injury, has completed 61.8% of his passes and thrown four touchdown passes and no interceptions in the three games he has started so far this year. Basically, since Prescott went down in Week 1, everything has gone right for the Cowboys.
So let's start the Week 4 Overreactions column in Dallas, shall we?
The Cowboys should keep starting Cooper Rush as long as they keep winning
Hey, don't look at me. Team owner Jerry Jones was the one who started all of this a couple of weeks ago with that weird, impromptu, "Wouldn't it be nice to have a decision?" speech. It's been keeping us going for a couple of weeks on our morning shows, and as long as Rush keeps winning, you know there are going to be some people who wonder why the Cowboys should rock the boat. Again, not me, but some people ...
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Come on, folks. This is a big-time overreaction. And, yes, if Prescott comes back next week and loses to the Rams, this will still be an overreaction. Rush is a backup quarterback for a reason, and backup quarterbacks are, ideally, supposed to do exactly what Rush has done so far -- give you a chance to win a handful of games if your starter has to miss time. A full season of Cooper Rush does not maximize the potential of the Cowboys' offense, and, yes, that matters. No matter how good your defense is.
The point here is not to be able to beat Washington in early October. The point is to be good enough to win in the playoffs, to reach and win the Super Bowl. Prescott has abilities as a quarterback that Rush does not have, and once Prescott is ready to play, he needs to play. I truly believe the Cowboys understand this and that this is not a discussion they are having internally. It makes for really good fun for those of us who talk about them on the outside, but no, I don't think they're considering keeping Rush in the starting role once Prescott is healthy, nor do I think they should. Overreaction. Big-time.
The NFC East is the best division in football
This is an inconceivable notion if you've been following the NFC East over the past decade, but just look at the records. The division currently houses the league's only unbeaten team, the Philadelphia Eagles. But they hold just a one-game lead over not one but two other teams! The Cowboys are 3-1, and so are the Giants, who beat the Bears on Sunday with basically no wide receivers and, by the end of the game, no healthy quarterbacks.
Rush has kept the Cowboys afloat, Brian Daboll has kept the Giants believing, and the Eagles, who fell behind early to the previously red-hot Jaguars on Sunday, look capable at the moment of beating just about anybody. The poor 1-3 Washington Commanders bring up the rear because somebody has to, but they'd be only a game out of first place in the AFC North or South. Not their fault their division has become this kind of monster juggernaut.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I still say the best division ends up being the AFC West, though I admit the Raiders' crummy start and the Chargers' rash of injuries have me rethinking it. The Eagles are a legit contender, and based on how good their defense has looked so far the Cowboys need to be looked at as a playoff team. But while I absolutely love what the Giants are doing from a resourcefulness standpoint, and I believe Daboll is the right coach to establish the kind of culture they need to finally turn things around after all these years, I don't see this 3-1 start as sustainable. I could be wrong, and if I am, then no, this is not an overreaction.
Let's see more than a month's worth of results before we decide the NFC East is a three-playoff-team division. That'd be a pretty big step up from where it has been lately.
Justin Fields is not the Bears' quarterback of the future
The team the Giants beat Sunday is dealing with a lot of the same stuff the Giants are -- protection issues, lack of wide receiver options, youth and a new coaching staff. The Bears would be the league's surprise 3-1 team if they'd been able to beat the Giants, but as it stands they're 2-2 with continued questions about second-year quarterback Fields and the viability of the passing game around him.
Fields set season highs Sunday in pass attempts (22), completions (11) and passing yards (174), and he did not throw an interception. It might have been his best game of the season, unless you count the muddy opener against the 49ers in which he managed to throw his only two touchdown passes of the season. He was sacked six times after being sacked five times in Week 3, and as a passer this year Fields is 35-for-67 for 471 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions over four games. Those are some 1950s numbers, folks, and the chatter about whether the Bears trust Fields enough to let him throw the ball isn't going to die down anytime soon.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I still say it's too soon. This is a young player in his second year in the league, learning a new offense under a new coaching staff. His team has not built a sufficiently strong offensive line in front of him or a sufficiently dynamic receiving corps for him to throw to. Sunday was the first game this year in which top receiver Darnell Mooney started to get going, and you saw the downfield connection between him and Fields on display a couple of times.
I spoke with a lot of Bears people this week, and they insist it's just about time with Fields -- rhythm and timing of the offense, the increased confidence that comes with experience and (ideally) success. It might well be that Fields isn't the guy for the Bears long term, but it's too soon to reach that conclusion at the moment. Give the young man time, and a little bit more to work with, before you give up on him. The Bears will.
This will be Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Steelers head coach
With Pittsburgh's offense stuck in the mud, Tomlin made the switch midgame Sunday from Mitch Trubisky to rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett at quarterback ... only to lose at the end to the Jets. That is not a good loss, ladies and gentlemen, and it leaves the Steelers at 1-3, looking up at everyone else in the AFC North. There doesn't seem to be anything at all happening with the offense, where the line remains bad and the explosive plays just aren't happening. And the defense, without injured edge rusher T.J. Watt, hasn't been enough to carry the Steelers in the meantime.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The news gets worse. Entering Sunday, the Steelers had the league's toughest remaining schedule according to ESPN's Football Power Index -- and that included Sunday's Jets matchup, which the formula pegged as one of their most winnable. Pittsburgh's next four opponents -- Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami and Philadelphia -- have a combined record of 12-3 pending the Bucs' Sunday night result, and three of those four games are on the road.
Whether it's Trubisky, Pickett, Terry Bradshaw, Ben Roethlisberger or Bubby Brister at quarterback, these Steelers could, in the blink of an eye, be 1-7 and out of the race. If he can drag this bunch out of a 1-3 ditch to a winning record, that would be Tomlin's best trick yet.
Carolina's Matt Rhule will be the first head coach fired this season, and it could be soon
The Panthers did beat the Saints in Week 3, or else they'd be 0-4 right now. The offense has absolutely not come together under new coordinator Ben McAdoo and new quarterback Baker Mayfield. Rhule was a combined 10-23 in his first two years in Carolina, and he's off to a 1-3 start in Year 3. Owner David Tepper spent a great deal of money to buy the team four years ago, and he has enjoyed basically no success so far.
With Mayfield and Sam Darnold as the quarterback options on the roster right now, the Panthers don't seem to have their long-term answer, which means a reset isn't necessarily a bad idea. There are two former NFL head coaches on the staff -- McAdoo and Steve Wilks -- who could serve as interim head coach the rest of the season. (Wilks would seem to be the more likely choice.)
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It's still pretty early, but it's hard to see things getting better anytime soon for Rhule. The Panthers' next three games are against the 49ers, Rams and Bucs, and they still have out-of-division road trips to Cincinnati and Baltimore. If Tepper decides this season is a lost cause, it's not out of the question that he could make a change before it ends. The reasons to change coaches in-season are either (A) to save the season before it's lost or (B) to get a head start on finding the successor before other teams begin their searches. People around the league who track these things certainly have their eye on the Carolina situation, and no head-coaching seat feels hotter right now than Rhule's.