Predicting NFL Week 3 upsets, fantasy football starts and sits, plus buzz and notes around the league

NFL Week 3 arrives on the heels of an absolutely wild Week 2, one that gave us sensational comebacks, video game-type numbers and cast a whole lot of fresh doubt on who's good, who's bad and who's in between in the National Football League.

Double-digit comebacks by the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals were memorable, and were all powered by outstanding quarterback play. The return of Jimmy Garoppolo to the No. 1 quarterback role for the San Francisco 49ers was bittersweet, coming as a result of a season-ending injury to Trey Lance. The New York Giants moved to a surprising 2-0, and the reigning AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals dropped to 0-2. Tom Brady chucked another tablet (in a win), the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos continued to struggle on offense, and the Buffalo Bills kept on rolling.

Here to make sense of it all heading into Week 3 are ESPN Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler, who discuss the topics of the day, offer some game picks and fantasy advice, and empty out their notebooks to account for all the latest buzz around the league:

Jump to:
Hot seat watch | AFC's best offense?
Next QB steps for 49ers | Top rookies
Upset picks | Fantasy start/sit
Everything we're hearing

Let's do a mini hot seat watch: Which coaches are you keeping an eye on through the first two games?

Graziano: Matt Rhule in Carolina is the most obvious choice, because he was probably at the top of this list entering the season. The 0-2 Panthers haven't been able to figure out the quarterback position since Rhule got there, and unless they start winning with Baker Mayfield soon, Rhule could be the one who pays the price for that.

Mike McCarthy could be in trouble in Dallas if the 1-1 Cowboys don't make the playoffs, but I seriously doubt they would make an in-season change. And if the 1-1 Cardinals hadn't come back to win Sunday, I'd have said keep an eye on Kliff Kingsbury. Jeremy, who'd I miss?

Fowler: Dan, Frank Reich now has my attention after two curious duds to start the season. He's likely safe, to be sure, building up much equity in Indianapolis. Jim Irsay isn't the most patient owner, though -- he was pivotal in moving on from Carson Wentz after one year -- and that Jaguars shutout will sting for a while. Progress must be made.

Pete Carroll's post-Russell Wilson rebuild with 1-1 Seattle is intriguing, because if a climb back to the top takes a few years, will Carroll get the time to make it?

As the Bills and Dolphins prepare to face off in Miami, which team has the AFC's most dangerous offense?

Fowler: Bills. Would love to be unpredictable and take the less obvious choice, but Buffalo has been magma-hot through two games, picking up where it left off last year. When a team punts a total of three times through the first two games -- and, let's be honest, a few of those late-game punts in a blowout of Tennessee on Monday night were a courtesy -- that's quite the compelling case. The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection looks as lethal as ever, and when it's not working, Buffalo has about seven different ways to beat you.

Graziano: Yeah, you have to say Buffalo at this point. The Bills were without their second-best receiver Monday night and still did whatever they wanted to do against a team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last year. Chiefs, Chargers good choices here for sure. It's still scary to try to stop Lamar Jackson. And what the Dolphins did Sunday could put them in the conversation if they can keep doing it. But Josh Allen's got things humming in Buffalo on a different level.

Scenario: Jimmy Garoppolo has a strong, healthy year for a 49ers team that contends in the NFC. What happens next?

Graziano: If Garoppolo has a strong, healthy season and the 49ers contend, it's likely a team signs him to be its starting quarterback next year. I'm reading something into this question, which is that you really want to ask whether the Niners would keep Garoppolo around in this case. I want to be clear: The only reason Garoppolo is still on the team is because the 49ers couldn't trade him. The only reason.

They did not make a conscious decision to keep Garoppolo around in case something happened to Trey Lance. They made a decision not to release him once he agreed to a massive pay cut. They wanted him out, he wanted out, and ultimately they agreed to make the best of a difficult situation. He got a no-franchise clause in his contract, which means the 49ers can't bring him back in 2023 if he doesn't want to come back. They believe Lance is their future, and they're disappointed they have to wait until next year to get to it. But they do still plan to get to it.

Fowler: Yeah, Dan, that's why I'm not buying the notion Garoppolo and the 49ers will stay together after this year, regardless of the finished product in 2022. You can't totally take that off the table, but that's not my expectation. This seems pretty clear-cut: If Garoppolo plays well, there should be a starter's job waiting for him somewhere. As one AFC executive told me this week, he's not great, but he's better than some of these other dudes starting games right now.

Part of the reason the 49ers were ready to move on from Garoppolo is because they believe the offense can be more explosive with Lance, who's under contract on a major discount in 2023 and 2024 at around $9 million of combined salary. San Francisco would be foolish not to use that advantage.

Which rookie has been most impressive through two weeks?

Fowler: Falcons wide receiver Drake London. Looks like Atlanta has a No. 1 receiver for second-year coach Arthur Smith. Many of the first-year receivers are balling, with Jahan Dotson (Commanders) and Garrett Wilson (Jets) garnering consideration. But London has 13 catches for 160 yards without elite quarterback play, and he gave Jalen Ramsey much to handle in that Rams matchup Sunday.

Graziano: Yeah, London is the right call because he has played two good games. But Wilson's game Sunday was eye-opening, and let's throw some love to the defensive side, where the Lions' Aidan Hutchinson had three sacks Sunday. They're thrilled with him in Detroit.

What's your top upset pick for Week 3?

Graziano: Cowboys (+2.5) over Giants. I guess I'm just not used to seeing the Giants favored. Very impressive that coach Brian Daboll has them sitting at 2-0, and I think there's good reason to believe they can have the best year they've had in a while. But that's not a very high bar to clear, and even during the 2-0 start the Giants' offense hasn't looked world-beating. Micah Parsons will be the best player on the field Monday night, and I think Dallas has a good chance to score whatever modest number of points it'll need to beat the Giants and improve to 2-0 in the Cooper Rush era.

Fowler: Packers (+1.5) over Bucs. Tampa's offense is looking more like Green Bay's than expected -- run-heavy, not exactly pouring yards and points on defenses. Tampa's receiver position is still in flux, and Aaron Rodgers says he hasn't played well over the past two weeks. Rarely does Rodgers put up three duds. He regains his touch and the Packers' defense will do the rest.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Greg Dortch continues his hot start with the Cardinals. Dortch has capitalized on Arizona's receiver depth issues with 11 receptions for 118 yards on 13 targets. That workload could increase as defenses key on Zach Ertz and Marquise Brown in the passing game. DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore will continue to sit, which leaves Dortch as the clear WR2 in the desert. Arizona is passing on 63.5% of its offensive downs.

Graziano: Justin Fields has a breakout passing game. This one is a real long shot, given the fact the Bears looked scared to let Fields throw the ball at all Sunday night in Lambeau Field. But they have to do something to get a passing game going, and the game against Houston, which has allowed the seventh-most passing yards through two weeks in spite of playing a couple of low-scoring games, could offer them their best opportunity yet. Talking to people around the team, everything I hear about Fields is positive. So I don't get the sense the reason for the conservative game-planning is about doubting Fields. At some point, he's going to have to start throwing.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• It's obviously far too early to know for sure what kind of season Jalen Hurts is going to have for the Eagles. But the early returns are extremely exciting, so it's worth looking ahead to next offseason, when Hurts, as a member of the 2020 draft class, will be eligible for the first time to talk with the Eagles about a possible contract extension. The contract futures of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to some extent, Tua Tagovailoa), who were drafted in that year's first round, have already been discussed and speculated about at length. But since Hurts was a second-round pick, and not a first-round pick, in that draft, the Eagles don't hold a fifth-year option on him for 2024. That could put him in a stronger position to negotiate (again, assuming he keeps playing well) than even Burrow, Herbert or Tagovailoa, since the Eagles will be one year closer to having to confront the franchise tag than the Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins will.

• Speaking of Tua, as spectacular as his fourth quarter was throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, an opposing defensive coordinator I spoke to thinks Mike McDaniel's offense has yet to fully reveal itself. Remember, before they brought in Hill, they Dolphins signed running backs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. McDaniel comes from that Kyle Shanahan tree in which pass games are designed as offshoots of the run game. Other coaches are curious to see how McDaniel builds out the foundation of his run game moving forward, and the thought is that the electrifying weapons in the passing game will be even more frightening once that establishes itself.

• Speaking of run games, expect the Packers to keep leaning hard on theirs while the passing game comes together around Aaron Rodgers and his young receivers. Coach Matt LaFleur (also of the Shanahan lineage) told the whole world last week that they had to operate through Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and that's what they did Sunday night against the Bears, and it worked. Brilliantly. They'll keep doing it, and when I spoke with Jones last week he told me that was fine with him and Dillon. He said to expect more formations in which both of them are on the field at the same time. "I used to lobby for that when Jamaal [Williams] was here, and we're doing it again," Jones said. "I like to get my boys as much time out there as possible." Jones and Dillon are legitimately very close, they pull for each other and Jones was totally fine with Dillon getting more of the workload than he did Week 1. If you're looking for fantasy advice on how to handle these guys, I say you have to start them both every week until further notice. They're both going to get carries and targets in bunches.

Fowler

• The NFL on Tuesday night heard Bucs receiver Mike Evans' appeal of his one-game suspension for last week's Saints-Bucs fracas. And I'm told his representation's case highlighted the league's past inconsistencies on discipline. For example, three players from the Browns-Steelers incident when Myles Garrett swung Mason Rudolph's helmet missed at least one game for their role, despite several involved in the fight in some form. In 2017, A.J. Green played the week after throwing punches at Jalen Ramsey. Evans also made the case that his 2017 suspension -- also for fighting the Saints -- shouldn't be a factor because league rules provide players a clean slate after 32 games without a violation. Regardless, the NFL doesn't seem eager to adjust the suspension, given VP of football operations Jon Runyan stating Evans "violently threw (his) body into and struck an unsuspecting opponent who was part of that confrontation," escalating a dangerous situation. But Evans has made his case. Evans' base salary is $1.12 million due to an offseason contract restructure, so a lost game check would cost him something north of $60,000.

• New England preached toughness with its offense all last week -- let's get back to who we are. Coaches stressed finishing the game, which the offense did in Pittsburgh with a six-minute offensive drive to seal the 17-14 win. And Mac Jones set a tone in this department coming off his back injury. The Patriots gave him the option to throw on Friday and then rest for part of practice, but Jones insisted on taking every rep. The Patriots' offense still feels like an unfinished product after the well-publicized changes to the offensive staff. But, even if imperfect, the Patriots felt they played to their identity, and Jones was a big part of that.

• The Ravens face an injury wave for the second consecutive year. The team's defensive depth chart features red marks all over, with nine players on injured reserve, out for upcoming games or questionable. Linebacker Blake Martinez and pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul are among veterans visiting the team this week, and when I asked someone with the organization about potentially signing someone, the response was the Ravens would basically take any functioning body at this point. It's a joke - and not a knock on Pierre-Paul or Martinez but an emphasis on the need for help, and fast.

• The Kenny Golladay situation in New York is far from over. When a receiver with a $21.15 million cap hit plays two snaps on Sunday, there's no coming back from that. This is the classic case of a new regime -- GM Joe Schoen, coach Brian Daboll -- taking over a contract it wouldn't have done itself. And when that's the case, teams look for exit strategies. The Giants didn't do anything with Golladay's contract in the preseason because the guarantees hamstrung them. His $13 million salary and $4.5 million roster bonus are locked in. Zero wiggle room. But a similar situation unfolded in the New York area a few years ago, with the Jets and Le'Veon Bell. GM Joe Douglas, who didn't do the Bell deal, decided the Jets were better off paying Bell his $13 million in guarantees to go away, first trying to trade him before releasing him. The difference is Golladay, as an accomplished wide receiver with red zone scoring potential, could have some trade value if the Giants agree to cover most of his salary. Something to watch, because Golladay can't be satisfied with his role.