Predicting NFL Week 2 upsets, fantasy football starts and sits, plus buzz and notes around the league

The first week of the 2022 NFL season is in the books, giving way to the usual round of knee-jerk overreactions about the relative strengths and weaknesses of players, teams and coaches throughout the National Football League. Everything we thought we knew about this NFL season was washed away in a matter of hours, with a new series of brand-new and misguidedly rigid ideas having now formed entering NFL Week 2.

Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler are once again on the scene to separate the aberrations from the new realities, chiming in with their top Week 2 picks, keying in on some fantasy players who could impress or disappoint after surprising Week 1s, and emptying their notebooks to highlight the top buzz from around the league. Included in Graziano and Fowler's list for this week is a chronicle of the weirdest results from Week 1, a debate on some quarterbacks who stand to get paid heading into 2023, and a study of the Patriots, Steelers and some other teams that might already be in trouble after one week of action.

Jump to:
Teams in trouble | Weird Week 1 results
No Pats/Steelers in playoffs? | QBs getting paid
Upset picks | Fantasy start/sit
Everything we're hearing

Which team should be most worried after Week 1?

Graziano: The Cowboys. Easy answer. Did any of the other teams lose their starting quarterback for the next six to eight weeks? Being without Dak Prescott (right thumb) for a significant chunk of time will cost the Cowboys, for sure, but even more alarming was how horrible they looked on offense against Tampa Bay before Dak got hurt. The line is a mess, CeeDee Lamb did not impress in his debut as the nominal No. 1 wide receiver, and there isn't much else behind him. And not to pile on a guy who got hurt, but Prescott played a terrible game Sunday night as well. All of the concerns about the Cowboys' offense that followed them into the season were on display, and it's obviously not going to get any easier to fix the problem with QB1 on the shelf.

Fowler: I mean, it's far from ideal, Dan, but I'm still sort of bullish on Dallas (can't believe I'm saying that out loud). The Cowboys have drafted well and have a good roster, good defense. WR Michael Gallup's return will help space the field. And Prescott could be back earlier than expected, per team owner Jerry Jones.

I'll go in a different direction and say Cardinals. They looked pretty lifeless against Kansas City, and I'm starting to wonder if they overachieved in coach Kliff Kingsbury's first three years. Arizona needs more pieces on defense and misses star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (suspension). I expect the Cardinals to rebound, but there's a lot to overcome here.

Graziano: Yeah, I was at that game, and "lifeless" is the right word for the Cardinals. They're beaten up with injuries right now, and playing without Hopkins for five more games isn't going to help. Looking that uninspired and that overwhelmed in the opener doesn't bode well for the Cards' chances to hang in the NFC West.

What's the weird Week 1 game we'll look back upon at the end of the season and scratch our heads?

Fowler: Vikings 23, Packers 7. Let's remember Green Bay put up a dud in last year's opener, too, then figured it out quickly and tore up the league. Sure, the Packers' plan to properly replace Davante Adams looks passive now. But they've spent second-, third- and fourth-round draft picks on receivers in the past two drafts. Here's to guessing one of those guys will become a star over the next 16 games. And though Minnesota looked inspired in Week 1, I still need to see more.

Graziano: I'm with you on pumping the brakes on Minnesota after just one game, though it's fun to see the players responding so well right away to new coach Kevin O'Connell. Maybe they really will push the Packers for the division this year.

I feel the same way about how the Bears played for Matt Eberflus in the muck of Soldier Field against the 49ers, but I still don't expect the Bears to win a ton of games this year. My sense is we will look back on Chicago beating San Francisco 19-10 as one of the oddball results of the year when it's all said and done.

Buy or sell: This will be the first postseason without either the Patriots or Steelers (who play each other this week) since 2000.

Graziano: Buy. The T.J. Watt injury (Watt is expected to miss about six weeks, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Tuesday) is going to be challenging to overcome for a Steelers team that absolutely needs its defense to carry it. QB Mitch Trubisky looked shaky against Cincinnati, RB Najee Harris got hurt, the line still looks terrible ... Pittsburgh already was a fringe playoff team at best and it just lost the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year for a chunk of the season.

The Patriots, meanwhile, looked as lost on offense against Miami as all of the training camp chatter led us to believe they might be. I'm not sure where the improvement comes from here. They don't have dynamic receivers or running backs, or a quarterback who can help overcome a shaky offensive line with his mobility. I think this is a reset year in New England, and while he'd never say it out loud, I think Bill Belichick thinks it is, too.

Fowler: Yeah, I'm going to have to buy, too, though the Steelers still have the makings of a playoff contender -- deep defense, plenty of playmakers on offense and a coach who always finds a way. Trubisky rallied late in Sunday's game. But the AFC is going to keep a lot of good teams out this year.

Small sample, but the Patriots' Week 1 offense reinforced the concerns many of us had with the lack of a true offensive coordinator supporting Mac Jones in a crucial Year 2. I keep waiting for Belichick to reveal his master plan, but that plan might actually be the reset you mentioned.

Who's most likely to get a big contract in 2023: Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota or Jimmy Garoppolo?

Fowler: Ooh, I like this question. It really depends on which player gets the best 2022 showcase, which, for now, eliminates Garoppolo. I'm giving a slight edge to Mayfield over Mariota because of the supporting cast in Carolina. Mayfield has playmakers to help him look good, and his Week 1 performance was steady.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith has a way of maximizing the skill sets of his quarterbacks, so Mariota (who is under a team-friendly contract with Atlanta next season) might give Mayfield a run, but players who have been free agents multiple times tend to get labeled journeymen. I'm not sure a team will reward Mariota with a big deal at this stage. Maybe Garoppolo can surprise with a major deal, but the market spoke for him with the lack of traction on a trade.

Graziano: My first inclination here was to say Garoppolo, because not playing could give him an advantage over these other guys if Mayfield and Mariota both struggle. But I think I'm with you on Mayfield. Week 1 aside, he's in the best position of these guys to play well considering the group around him, and he's healthy and motivated. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's still Carolina's QB in 2023.

What's your top upset pick for Week 2?

Graziano: Saints (+3) over Buccaneers. New Orleans is 4-1 against the Bucs since Tom Brady got there (yes, everyone remembers the one loss was in the playoffs), and the state of the Tampa Bay offensive line is frightening against that New Orleans defensive front. Brady and the Bucs really didn't get a ton going on offense against the Cowboys in Week 1; they just looked good in comparison. The Saints have a formula for beating the Bucs and shape up to do it again at home this week. I can't understand why they're underdogs.

Fowler: Panthers (+2.5) over Giants. The Matt Rhule era needs a spark, and the Panthers will be eager to avoid an 0-2 start. They have enough talent to do it. The good vibes out of Brian Daboll's debut are noteworthy, but the Giants still have roster concerns on both sides of the ball. Another game to watch: Dolphins (+3) vs. Ravens. Miami's defense flustered Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense a year ago.

Graziano: By the way, give me Jaguars (+4) over Colts while we're dealing with home underdogs who shouldn't be. The Colts play in Jacksonville every year and have not won there since Sept. 21, 2014 -- a day on which Andrew Luck threw touchdown passes to Colts legends Ahmad Bradshaw, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and Hakeem Nicks. The devastating Week 18 loss there this past January that knocked the Colts out of the playoffs is fresh in everyone's mind, but this thing goes a lot deeper than that. The Jags should have made my upset pick from last week look good. This week, they'll pick me up.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Fowler: Jeff Wilson Jr. establishes himself as a valuable RB2 or flex option. Elijah Mitchell's injury elevates Wilson to the top of the 49ers' depth chart, which is always a good place to be for easy rushing yards. Quarterback Trey Lance and wide receiver Deebo Samuel combined for 21 carries in Chicago. Gotta think Wilson absorbs some of that workload against Seattle.

Graziano: Derek Carr and the Raiders' passing game bounces back. Carr was 20th (through Sunday) in fantasy QB scoring in Week 1 as (other than Davante Adams) the Raiders' aerial attack didn't look as if it has hit its stride yet. But I watched the Cardinals try in vain to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday, and while Carr is no Mahomes, I don't see how Arizona puts up much resistance against a Raiders team looking to get on track. If you waited until late in your draft and got Carr as your starting QB, or if you play in a two-QB league and were counting on him, don't despair just yet. A big year is still in store for Carr and his pass-catchers.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Graziano

• The Darren Waller contract extension with the Raiders is basically a $4 million- or $5 million-per-year raise for the next two years, and that's it. Waller was scheduled to earn $7 million in 2022 and another $7 million in 2023 on his previous deal -- far below market value for a tight end of his caliber. His new deal raises his 2022 salary to $11 million, fully guaranteed, plus an additional $1.275 million in per-game roster bonuses. It raises his 2023 salary to $11 million, of which $8.25 million is fully guaranteed at signing (and the remaining becomes guaranteed next March), plus an additional $1.275 million in per-game roster bonuses. So if Waller plays every game, he'll make about $24.55 million over the next two years, as opposed to the $14 million he was supposed to make. The 2024, 2025 and 2026 seasons are all nonguaranteed. Waller turned 30 on Tuesday. You can draw your own conclusions about how likely he is to see any of this contract beyond 2023.

• The Steelers came out of Sunday's game with a couple of potentially devastating injury situations but got good news on both as the week went along. Running back Najee Harris tweaked a foot injury he was dealing with during camp, but tests showed no significant issue and he plans to play this week. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt initially feared he'd need surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle, but tests determined his injury could heal without surgery, and the Steelers are hopeful he'll be able to return by the end of October. In the meantime, Pittsburgh will ask 2020 third-round pick Alex Highsmith to pick up the slack as their top edge rusher. They expect he's up to the task. The Steelers view Highsmith as an explosive talent who has developed over the past two years into the kind of player who can pile up sacks -- maybe not to the extent that Watt does but enough to get them by considering how strong they are on the rest of their defense.

• One reason the Bears are more optimistic internally about this season than people are outside their building is that new general manager Ryan Poles expects to get significant Year 1 contributions from his first draft class. You saw that in Sunday's victory over the 49ers, when second-round defensive backs Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon made major contributions on defense, fifth-rounder Braxton Jones started at left tackle and fifth-round edge rusher Dominique Robinson had 1.5 sacks. Poles told me in training camp that one of his first priorities when he got the job was to overhaul the organization's scouting procedure in a way that aggressively targeted specific scheme-fit players they believed could contribute right away, and he came away from the draft believing he'd done so. The Bears might not be a contender this year, but Sunday's win was one few people expected them to pocket. And if Justin Fields shows the kind of toughness he did in coming back against San Francisco in that lousy weather, they could be better than you think.

Fowler

• As of now, the Cowboys do not plan to trade for a starting quarterback, barring an unforeseen development. A source told me that path is unlikely. Dak Prescott's improved timeline (he has a chance to return in October) and the team's familiarity with Cooper Rush helps them stay patient here. So, the most likely scenario is Dallas adds a third quarterback via the practice squad and elevates backup Will Grier on game day. I don't expect the team to sign free agent Cam Newton. It will probably acquire somebody else.

• The Chargers got good news this week when Keenan Allen's MRI did not reveal significant damage to his hamstring. He probably won't play Thursday vs. the Chiefs, given the quick turnaround. Los Angeles wants to ensure Allen doesn't aggravate the injury in the early stages of recovery. But he should be back relatively soon -- perhaps the team's Week 3 matchup with Jacksonville on Sept. 25 is a sweet spot.

• Giants coach Brian Daboll revealed his aggressive coaching nature by electing for a 2-point conversion to secure Sunday's 21-20 win over the Titans. For Daboll, nearly 30 years in coaching has shaped his outlook in moments like that. Here's what Daboll told me in the preseason about his evolution as a coach and learning from mistakes: "How I handle adversity, how I handle a playbook, not doing it how it's always been done, being open-minded, trusting the guys around me more, listening better -- there's a whole list that I have. After 26 years in coaching, if you're not learning from your past, you'll make the same mistakes." Fun fact about Daboll: He has kept every one of his playbooks since 1997. "My wife is making me throw all of my old playbooks away," he said. "It's hard. I keep the little sections I need to keep, the pass sections and routes that I like."